The first grade I race for three-year-olds of 2011 is to be run later this afternoon ---- the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) for fillies. There is also a magnificent array of other fine Triple Crown prep races, including the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct and the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park. I will be live updating later the afternoon, posting the results of the many fine races as they are run. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE – Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I)
One Mile on the Main Track. For 3yo Fillies.
In my opinion, this race does not require handicapping. The results are obvious. The 4-5 morning line favorite is the undefeated Turbulent Descent, whom I have taken to calling the “Mini-Zenyatta.” In my opinion, it is not a question of if she can win, rather, it is a question of how many lengths will she win by?
It will be no small task to win. Many fine fillies are set to run against her, including California Nectar and Zazu. Also, this will be Turbulent Descent’s first start over a dirt surface, as her three previous starts have come over Hollywood Park’s synthetic Cushion Track.
But if she truly does deserve the nickname of “Mini-Zenyatta,” she will overcome it all.
Here are the runners. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Plum Pretty (8-1)
2 Tiz the Route (20-1)
3 California Nectar (4-1)
4 May Day Rose (9-2)
5 Turbulent Descent (4-5)
6 Zazu (9-2)
There had been a seventh entry, Bluegrass Chatter, but she scratched.
Drawing the rail is Plum Pretty, who has had short but promising career thus far. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of the A.P. Indy mare Liszy, Plum Pretty broke her maiden first time out going six furlongs during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park. It was a strong performance, one which warranted a step up in class. She was then entered in the Santa Ynez Stakes, where she ran third behind California Nectar and Zazu after stalking the pace. Trained by Bob Baffert, she is faced with the difficult task of taking this tough field wire-to-wire. Seeing that she weakened going seven furlongs last time out against these same fillies, I can’t see her holding on to win today. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia.
Longshot Tiz to Route drew gate two. Trained by Joe Herrick, I’m afraid that it is tough to make a case for her chances. The daughter of Tiznow finished fourth twice in maiden special weight company at Del Mar, although the horses that beat her included Tell a Kelly and Zazu. Given a bit of a break, she returned in December during the Hollywood Park meet and finished in a dead-heat for the win in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at odds of 16.80-1. Her task today will be difficult at best, although the fact that she is a front runner should help her chances over this speed-favoring Santa Anita main track. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by B. Blanc.
This brings us to California Nectar. The promising daughter of Stormy Atlantic is the most experienced of these six fillies, having started seven times already. She began her career by running in a pair of maiden special weight races at Del Mar, and apparently lacking any serious affinity for the surface, ran second both times.
She then came out for a six-furlong maiden special weight over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track during the Oak Tree meet. Sent off as the odds-on favorite, she won in wire-to-wire fashion while in hand late.
Twenty-seven days later California Nectar was entered in the Robert H. Walter California Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes, which, perhaps, holds the record for the longest name of a horse race. Sent off as the heavy favorite, she ran second, beaten just a nose, in a three-horse photo finish. This strong performance warranted another step up in class, for her next start came in the Miesque Stakes, a grade III event at Hollywood Park. California Nectar turned in the poorest effort of her career that day, fading to finish fourth of seven although beaten only 3 ¼ lengths.
However, it was at this time that her career really took off. Tried over Santa Anita’s dirt main track for the first time when entered in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes, she tracked odds-on favorite Teddy’s Promise for a half-mile before drawing away to win by a length and a quarter.
Her next start was even stronger. Sent off as the second choice in the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), she went straight to the lead and held off favored Zazu in a thrilling finish, completing the seven-furlong event in 1:21.34. That was her most recent race.
If anyone is going to upset Turbulent Descent, I believe that it could be this filly. She is two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track and has the speed to kick clear in the stretch and hold off her rivals. Trained by Doug O’Neill, she will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.
May Day Rose drew gate five. The daughter of Rockport Harbor brings a strong resume into this race. She began her career by finishing a close second in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar. She then turned in a sharp performance in an identical event just thirteen days later, wiring the field as the odds-on favorite under Martin Garcia.
An attempt at a huge step up in class failed when she tired late in the stretch of the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes to finish fourth, beaten 3 ¼ lengths by Turbulent Descent. On the other hand, she was 1 ¾ lengths clear of Zazu that day.
Her most recent start came in the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes. Sent off as the 1-20 favorite against only two other horses, she won by 1 ¼ lengths over Bluegrass Chatter in a performance that did not warrant odds of 1-20. Still, it was a graded stakes win, and should she get a loose lead this afternoon (which seems unlikely) she could hang around for a top three finish. Trained by Bob Baffert, she will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and will carry 119 pounds. She worked a bullet half-mile breeze on February 2nd, getting the distance in :46 2/5.
This brings us to filly number five, the undefeated, brilliant, “Mini-Zenyatta.” Named Turbulent Descent, the daughter of Congrats is undefeated in three starts and looks like a future superstar. Her first start came in a six furlong maiden special weight race during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park, where she easily to defeat Canadian Pride by three-quarters of a length in the sharp time of 1:09.90.
Her second start came in the seven-furlong Moccasin Stakes, a local prep for the prestigious Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I). Sent off as the odd-one favorite, she effortlessly passed a fine filly in Zazu to win the race by 1 ½ lengths in 1:23.15.
She came out three weeks later for the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, where she would face grade I winner Tell a Kelly, as well as Zazu, Nine Fever, and May Day Rose.
Sent off as the favorite at 1.10-1, she sat four lengths off the pace. Then three. Then two. Then, with little urging, she drew away with ease to win by a length and a quarter.
In all three of her races she has given the impression that she has untapped talent; an extra gear or three that she can use during emergencies. She has that certain look that some horses have when they came down the stretch. She gives the impression that what she does is easy for her; that her rivals are no match for her superior abilities and that she could dismiss them and defeat them whenever she pleases. Today’s race will be her first on dirt, and she must overcome Santa Anita’s speed bias, but if she is as good as she appears to be she will win with ease.
She will carry 122 pounds, top weight in this field. Trained by Mike Puype, she will be ridden by David Flores, who interestingly rode Zenyatta in her first three starts. Her workouts have been fabulous, with her most recent two being a seven-furlong work in 1:23 2/5 and a five-furlong breeze in :59 1/5. She is ready.
Finally, we come to Zazu. A daughter of Tapit, the gray/roan filly has only won once in five starts but has twice finished second in stakes races. She began her career by running second to stakes winner Tales in Excess in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. Stretched out to 6-1/2 furlongs in her second race, she drew off easily to win by 2 ¾ lengths. This strong effort earned her a start in the seven-furlong Moccasin Stakes, where she ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent. However, she was unable to match that performance three weeks later in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, where she ran a disappointing fifth while failing to present any rally whatsoever. However, this didn’t stop her from being sent off as the heavy favorite in the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes. Ridden by Joel Rosario for the first time, she dropped far off the pace before rallying furiously in the stretch, just failing to catch California Nectar by a neck. If she can turn in a similar late kick this afternoon, she should be able to finish in the money. Trained by John Sadler, she will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by John Sadler.
I have given this race considerable thought, and after considerable handicapping I have come up with these picks. . .
1 Turbulent Descent
2 California Nectar
3 Zazu
4 May Day Rose
5 Tiz the Route
6 Plum Pretty
Now don’t get me wrong – I can see Turbulent Descent getting upset. I’m sure she will handle dirt just fine, but with Santa Anita being so speed favoring I can see California Nectar or one of the other front-runners getting a loose lead and holding off the Mini-Zenyatta’s run in late stretch. However, you can bet that I will be cheering for Turbulent Descent in the same manner in which I cheered on Zenyatta when she charged down the stretch time after time.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There are many other fascinating races for three-year-olds being run today, although none of them are graded.
Perhaps the most influential and promising of the lot is the third race at Gulfstream Park today, a nine furlong allowance race. It has drawn an evenly-matched field of six, with morning line odds ranging from 5-2 to 6-1. The morning line favorite is Shackleford, impressive winner of a maiden special weight last time out. Casper’s Touch is the 3-1 second choice. His last workout was sharp and he comes off of a sharp maiden special weight victory going a mile at Churchill Downs in November. Interestingly, the American-based colt has raced in England already, running third in weight-for-age race in June before coming back to the United States.
Also in the race are the promising sophomores El Grayling, Shadow Warrior, Strike Oil, and Fort Larned. It is a truly remarkable race!
At Fair Grounds there is a pair of interesting stakes races for three-year-olds. The first is the six-furlong Tiffany Lass Stakes for fillies. The favorite is Flash Mash, who is coming off of a six-placth finish in the My Trusty Cat Stakes. She has not been in good form lately, which leaves the race open for Wicked Deed to win. She won an allowance optional claiming race last time out, defeating Sam’s Bliss by a half-length. I feel that she’s ready to win today.
The other race is the Black Gold Stakes, a six-furlong event open to colts. Among the favorites are Divine Music, winner of an allowance optional claiming race last time out; Changing the Rules, who ran fourth in that same race; and Trubs, who comes off a pair of fourth-place finishes in stakes company. I believe that this race warrants close attention, for it appears as though some future stakes winners could emerge from this race.
At Aqueduct, there is the Whirlaway Stakes. Seven entered, but one has scratched. The morning line favorite I Rescind the Trade, who is undefeated in two starts. His most recent race was an allowance optional claiming race, which he won by a neck over Pants On Fire. Also defeated that day was J W Blue, who recently came back to impressively win an allowance race at Oaklawn.
J J’s Lucky Train, runner-up in the Count Fleet Stakes here last month, and Preachintothedevil, sharp winner of the Champagneforashley Stakes, should also be respected.
The WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park could also potentially turn out a Triple Crown runner. It drew a field of fourteen horses, but two scratches have reduced that number to twelve. Twinspired is the morning line favorite, although he has not hit the board since breaking his maiden four starts back. Banjammer should be primed for a sharp effort, as he comes off of a runner-up performance to Inhisglory in the Turfway Prevue Stakes, where he closed well to be beaten just a nose.
At Tampa Bay Downs, the race of interest is a sixth, a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight race. The colt I am watching is Adirondack Express, who comes off of a strong third in a maiden special weight about a month ago. He should be closing late.
Finally, there is the sixth race at Gulfstream Park. The morning line favorite is Queen’splatekitten, a Canadian-bred colt who broke his maiden with an incredible strong run in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Woodbine. Four lengths behind, at the five-sixteenths pole, he drew off to win by a ridiculously easy 5 ¼ length victory. If he can produce a similar run today, he will win with ease.
As I said above, I will be live-updating throughout the day as these races are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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