It's February now and the Triple Crown Trail is really beginning to heat up. There are so many three-year-olds spread all over the country prepping for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and the Belmont that it's nearly impossible to keep track of them all.
Some of the horses will be prepping in California – like Tapizar. The impressive winner of the Sham Stakes (gr. III) is regarded as one of the top Triple Crown prospects.
Other horses will be prepping in Louisiana – like Wilkinson. He gamely rallied along the rail to win the LeComte (gr. III); the first of the Louisiana prep races for the Triple Crown.
On the other hand, many horses will race in combination of states. For example, the 2010 Champion two-year-old male, Uncle Mo, will prep first in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) in Florida before shipping to New York to run in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).
There are many other possible trails to the Kentucky Derby. Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, prepped in Florida and Arkansas. The 2009 Derby winner, Mine That Bird, prepped in New Mexico. In 2008, Big Brown won the Derby off of two races in Florida. Street Sense prepped in Florida and Kentucky. Barbaro took the Florida route. Giacamo came from California.
As if that isn't enough, here's a list of where last year’s Derby horses prepped prior to running for the roses:
Finish Position/Horse/Route to Kentucky Derby
1 Super Saver - Florida/Arkansas
2 Ice Box - Florida
3 Paddy O'Prado - Florida/Kentucky
4 Make Music for Me - California/Kentucky
5 Noble's Promise - Arkansas
6 Lookin at Lucky - Arkansas/California
7 Dublin - Arkansas
8 Stately Victor - Florida/Kentucky
9 Mission Impazible - Florida/Arkansas/Louisiana
10 Devil May Care - Louisiana/Florida
11 American Lion - California/Illinois
12 Jackson Bend - Florida/New York
13 Discreetly Mine - Florida/Louisiana
14 Dean's Kitten - Florida/Kentucky
15 Conveyance - California/Arkansas/New Mexico
16 Homeboykris - Florida
17 Sidney's Candy - California
18 Line of David - California/Arkansas
19 Awesome Act - New York
20 Backtalk - Louisiana/Illinois
As you can see, a Derby horse can come from anywhere! Obviously, some routes are more frequently used than others. For example, I doubt that the Louisiana/Illinois route is all that common. On the other hand, there is always a colt or two coming from the Florida route. Along the same lines, there are always a few colts that prep in just one state, but it is much more common to prep in two states. Sometimes horses even run in three states prior to the Kentucky Derby!
So my question today is this: which route will this year’s Kentucky Derby winner come from?
It's not quite as easy to answer as it sounds. When you stop to think about it, there are many trails to the Derby and it is difficult to choose from them all! But here's a little list I have compiled to make your task easier. It is a list of fifteen possible routes to the Kentucky Derby, along with my own "morning line odds" on which route has the best chance of producing the Derby winner.
Florida/New York - 4/1
Florida - 6/1
Arkansas - 8/1
California - 10/1
Florida/Arkansas - 12/1
New York - 15/1
Florida/Kentucky - 15/1
Florida/Louisiana - 15/1
California/Arkansas - 20/1
Louisiana - 20/1
Louisiana/Florida - 20/1
California/Kentucky - 25/1
California/New Mexico - 30-1
New Mexico - 40/1
Louisiana/Kentucky - 50/1
Not that long ago I wouldn't have even included New Mexico as a route. However, with Mine That Bird coming out of New Mexico in 2009 and the rich $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) receiving graded status for the first time in 2010, it is obvious that this once-ignored route to Kentucky is rapidly becoming one of the better trails out there.
I made the Florida/New York route the favorite for two reasons. Reason #1 is that the Florida/New York route is currently the path that Uncle Mo will take to the Derby. Secondly, it is fairly possible that Dialed In could take the same path. After all, Dialed In is owned by Robert LaPenta and trained by Nick Zito, the pair who sent Jackson Bend along the Florida/New York route in 2010 and War Pass along that same route in 2008.
The Florida route is the second choice because it has done well in recent years. Barbaro and Big Brown both prepped in Florida prior to winning the Kentucky Derby, as did Ice Box who ran second in the Derby last year. Of course, the fact that To Honor and Serve and Dialed In could both take this route helps too.
Arkansas is the third choice even though it hasn't produced a Derby winner since Smarty Jones in 2004. It is the third choice because it so frequently turns out a nice colt. Over the last seven years, horses to have won the Arkansas Derby include Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Gayego, Papa Clem, and Line of David. Five of those horses won grade I races after the Arkansas Derby victory, four of them Eclipse award winners, three of them won a Triple Crown race, and one of them was a two-time Horse of the Year. And that doesn't include Summer Bird, who ran third in the 2009 Arkansas Derby before winning the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup (all gr. I) during a season which saw him win the Eclipse award as Champion three-year-old male. Throw in 2010 Arkansas Derby runner-up Super Saver, who won the Kentucky Derby three weeks later, and one realizes just how great the Arkansas route is.
California has had a bit of a dry spell in recent years, but it hasn't been too bad. Giacamo won the 2005 Kentucky Derby after prepping in California. Colonel John came from California to run a respectable sixth in the 2008 Derby, and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner Pioneerof the Nile proved his worth by running second in the 2009 Derby. And with Santa Anita Park having returned to a traditional dirt track last December, three-year-olds will be able to prep in California without their connections worrying about whether or not they can handle dirt.
So which route will produce the Derby winner? I'm going to go with the Florida/New York route. Which do you like? Leave a comment with your thoughts!
-Keelerman
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