As promised, here are my thoughts and analysis of the grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE ---- Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
Oaklawn Park/One Mile/$250,000 Purse
The 2011 edition of the Southwest Stakes has drawn a large field of eleven sophomore colts, all with their sights set on the Kentucky Derby in May. The second in a series of four major Triple Crown prep races at Oaklawn, I expect some future stakes winners to emerge from this quality field.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Caleb’s Posse 9-2 122
2 Derivative 8-1 115
3 Ghost is Clear 8-1 115
4 Grant Jack 15-1 119
5 J P’s Gusto 9-5 117
6 Archarcharch 10-1 117
7 Bonaroo 30-1 115
8 Yankee Passion 8-1 115
9 Elite Alex 4-1 115
10 Brickyard Fast 30-1 115
11 Picko’s Pride 30-1 115
Drawing the rail is Caleb’s Posse, winner of the local prep for this race, the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. The son of Posse also won the Clever Trevor Stakes last fall, but turned in a dismal seventh-place performance as the favorite in the Springboard Mile Stakes at the end of 2010. Although he is certainly a fine colt, he has not been coming home very fast at all in his races and will be carrying more weight than any of his rivals. Under these conditions, I’m afraid that I can’t see him winning. A wet track would increase his chances. Trained by Hemel Von, he will be ridden by E. Razo.
The next horse is Derivative. The colt has made six starts, all of them in maiden races. He has been improving with every start though and finally broke through with a win in his last start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn just nine days ago. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, this front-running colt will likely help set the pace this afternoon, but I’m not sure that he is capable of holding off the numerous talented late runners in this race. T. Thompson will ride.
This brings us to Ghost is Clear. The son of Ghostzapper turned in a very strong performance at Fair Grounds on January 27th. In a six furlong maiden special weight, (his fourth start) the colt went straight to the lead, raced three wide around the turn, and drew off to win by 7 ¼ lengths in 1:10.47. He has to prove that he is capable of racing around two turns today, but I feel that he will not embarrass himself. Trained by Michael Maker, C. Lanerie has the mount.
Then there is Grant Jack, winner of the Springboard Mile Stakes in December of 2010. In that race, he defeated Brickyard Fast and Caleb’s Posse, both of whom are running in this race. However, he finished seventh in his most recent start, beaten 22 ½ lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Perhaps he didn’t care for the off track that afternoon, or perhaps he set a pace that was too fast, but I don’t believe that he is quite talented enough to win this race. Trained by Bret Calhoun, he will be ridden by M. Berry.
J P’s Gusto, the morning line favorite, drew gate five. The immensely talented ridgling was the king of the California juveniles last summer, as he swept to victory in four stakes races which included the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) and Del Mar Futurity (gr. I). However, the colt has not won since stretching out to two turns, failing in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I), the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), and the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). On the other hand, he finished second in the Norfolk and CashCall Futurity and didn’t run all that badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing five lengths out of third despite a very rough trip. He will have to prove that he can win on dirt, but he is the class of this race and should be right in contention. This will be his first start for his new trainer, Joe Petalino, and will be ridden by Eclipse award-winning rider Ramon Dominguez.
One of the more intriguing runners in this race is Archarcharch. Trained by William Fires, the son of Arch (who else!) finished second in a maiden special weight to begin his career. He then broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, turning in a very sharp performance indeed. He looked like a serious Triple Crown contender after that race, but a disappointing fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes has shattered that image. However, it is possible that he merely didn’t care for the wet track that day, and I am willing to give him a second chance here today. J. Court has the mount.
This brings us to Bonaroo. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the gelding has yet to win a race from four starts, but this has not stopped him from competing in stakes races. Entered in the Smarty Jones Stakes off of a second in a Keeneland maiden special weight in October, the colt was a distant fifth at 8.50-1. If you like his chances here, you will probably get more like 50-1 or 60-1. I believe that he is capable of hitting the board, but I can’t see him defeating this fine field of runners. The son of Dynaformer will be ridden by J. Johnson.
Yankee Passion is the next colt. Trained by Larry Jones, the son of Yankee Gentleman has won two of his three starts and finished second in the other. The speedy colt won an allowance optional claiming race last time out going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10.88. However, this will be his first start beyond six furlongs and one must wonder if he can succeed at longer distances. A sharp five furlong workout February 16th signals his readiness. G. Saez will ride.
This brings us to Elite Alex, a very promising young colt with a bright future. The son of Afleet Alex broke his maiden in July of last year; then was given a lengthy break. His second start came in an allowance optional claiming race last month. In an incredible performance, the colt stumbled badly at the start, dropped well off the pace, circled the field with a tremendous run on the far turn, and missed the win in a stretch by a neck. He still has to prove that he is capable of winning a stakes race, but I believe that he has the talent. Trained by Tim Ritchey, he will be ridden by Calvin Borel.
Brickyard Fast drew gate ten. The son of Sharp Humor will be making his three-year-old debut. He proved to be a stakes-caliber colt in his final start as a juvenile, running second at 54-1 behind Grant Jack in the Springboard Mile Stakes. The front-running sophomore will probably help set the pace this afternoon; a difficult thing to do from the far outside. Time will tell if that effort is the standard or the exception for this colt, but he must at the very least be considered here. Trained by Joe Petalino, B. McNeil has the mount.
Finally, we come to Picko’s Pride. The son of Cactus Ridge broke his maiden first time out, but finished second, fourth, and second in his three starts since then, all in optional claiming company. Although a very nice colt, he just hasn’t shown the talent to win a race of this caliber. On the other hand, he closed well against Yankee Passion last time out and may improve in his second start off of a lengthy layoff. Trained by McLean Robertson, he will be ridden by I. Ocampo.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Yankee Passion
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Ghost is Clear
8 Grant Jack
9 Derivative
10 Brickyard Fast
11 Bonaroo
It was a very difficult race to handicap. As much as I like Elite Alex, I don’t think that this race is quite right for him. He should be running well in the stretch, but I like Yankee Passion to win. Yes, the colt has to prove himself at a mile, but I think that he has the raw talent to succeed in this race. As for J P’s Gusto, I believe that his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile run was deceptively good and that he will prove himself to be capable of running well on dirt today.
As for J.R., he’s sees things a bit differently from I, as usual. He sees Archarcharch rebounding off of his dismal effort in the Smarty Jones and grinding his way to an impressive win this afternoon. His complete picks are below. . .
1 Archarcharch
2 Elite Alex
3 Derivative
4 Ghost is Clear
5 J P’s Gusto
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Yankee Passion
8 Picko’s Pride
9 Bonaroo
10 Grant Jack
11 Brickyard Fast
It will be a fascinating race! J.R. and I are nearly tied in the standings of the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, and this will be the deciding race of the weekend. Who will come away with the lead after week two?
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The seventh race at Oaklawn Park today merits attention. Alternation, who defeated Elite Alex last time out, is the 9-5 favorite in the mile and a sixteenth allowance race. Dreaminofthewin has the ability to upset him though. Last time out, he finished a late-running second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This race should give us a preview as to who will win the Southwest Stakes later in the afternoon.
At Santa Anita, grade I winner Rigoletta will make her first start since winning the grade I Oak Leaf Stakes last fall in the grade III La Habla Stakes going 6-1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course. However, she is 8-1 on the morning line and not expected to win. Still, the race merits watching to see how well she has recovered from her injury which kept her out of the Breeders’ Cup.
That’s all for now! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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