Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I)
Ten furlongs on the Hollywood Park Cushion Track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Weight | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Love Theway Youare | 112 | Alonso Quinonez | Myung Kwon Cho |
| 2 | Richard's Kid | 120 | Rafael Bejarano | Bob Baffert |
| 3 | Kettle Corn | 117 | Garrett Gomez | John Sadler |
| 4 | Spud Spivens | 114 | Victor Espinoza | Henry Moreno |
| 5 | Anthony's Cross | 115 | Kerwin John | Eoin Harty |
| 6 | Game On Dude | 124 | Chantal Sutherland | Bob Baffert |
| 7 | Thirtyfirststreet | 112 | Eswan Flores | Doug O'Neill |
The heavy morning line favorite at 4-5 is Game On Dude, who finished second in this race last
year. Trained by Bob Baffert, this five-year-old gelding seems to get better with every passing year, and enters this race with a chance to stamp himself as the clear-cut leader of the division. Given how impressively he won the Californian Stakes (gr. II) here at Hollywood last time out -- while making his first start since a trip to Dubai -- I would expect him to be even sharper today, and the quality of his recent workouts seems to support that assumption. He should be difficult, if not nearly impossible, to defeat.
The status of second choice will likely go to Richard's Kid, who is also from the barn of Bob Baffert -- giving Baffert a chance to secure a 1-2 sweep of the Hollywood Gold Cup for the second consecutive year, if such a fact is even imaginable. A couple years back, Richard's Kid was among the best older males in the country, winning back-to-back runnings of the Pacific Classic (gr. I), as well as single editions of the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I), San Antonio Handicap (gr. II), and Cougar II Handicap (gr. II). However, a 1 1/2-year excursion to Dubai failed to secure any victories, and the now seven-year-old veteran was returned to Baffert's barn in California for another run at the summer handicaps. Judging by his 7 1/4-length victory in the Prove It Stakes here at Hollywood last time out, he seems to be back to his best, and should be a force to reckon with here today, and especially further down the road.
Beyond the two favorites, it's difficult to say who will step up and run a good race. Kettle Corn won the Native Diver Handicap (gr. III) here last fall, but was decisively beaten by Game On Dude when finishing second in the Californian. Love Theway Youare, the lone filly in the race, pulled off a surprising upset in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) last time out, and should appreciate the distance of today's event, but her form prior to the Vanity was not very good, and even a repeat of her Vanity effort probably won't be enough to win this race. Thirtyfirststreet has been disappointing in his last two starts, but three starts back, in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), he was making what looked like a potentially race-winning move along the fence when he hit the rail and retreated to finish eighth. From the barn of Doug O'Neill, this colt's best efforts could put him in the mix for a large piece of the purse. Spud Spivens won an allowance race in nice fashion last time out, but has never won a stakes race and may be in a bit deep. Anthony's Cross won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) last year, but went to the sidelines following a fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and has been disappointing in three starts since then.
All told, it's a tough race to decipher aside from the two favorites, and we could end up seeing some intriguing results by the end of the day!
My selections are:
1 Game On Dude
2 Kettle Corn
3 Richard's Kid
4 Thirtyfirststreet
Other Races of Note
At Arlington Park . . .
Race 6: A field of six is scheduled to start in the $100,000 Arlington Sprint Stakes, a 5-1/2 furlong turf sprint that has drawn the last two winners of the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. III), Chamberlain Bridge (2010) and Regally Ready (2011). While they are the stand-out favorites, both have major questions to answer. Regally Ready is winless in three starts this year, those efforts including a pair of dismal defeats in Dubai. And while Chamberlain Bridge can still be a force on his best day, his top efforts have been fewer and farther between as of late. One longshot that could pull an upset if the top two fail is Longhunter, who I feel is in deceivingly good form right now.
At Belmont Park . . .
Race 8: The undefeated Agave Kiss is scheduled to put her perfect 6-for-6 record on the line this afternoon in the six-furlong Victory Ride Stakes (gr. III) for three-year-old fillies, where she is the 2-5 favorite on the morning line. Coming off of an authoritative victory in the Miss Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, in which she earned a large Beyer speed figure of 106, Agave Kiss is definitely the one to beat in this spot, and looks ready to add another victory to her record. Perhaps the only thing that could get her beat is the fact that she drew gate one, and may have to be sent hard for the lead. But in a field of six, it probably won't be much of an issue.
Gypsy Robin, who is riding a three-race winning streak, and Jamaican Smoke, a promising allowance winner, are given the best chance at pulling off an upset, but both would need improved performances to take down Agave Kiss. And if the pace is hot, longshots Sea Island and Emma's Encore could certainly be charging late.
Race 9: It may only be a grade II, but the nine-furlong Suburban Handicap for three-year-olds and upward has certainly drawn a grade I-caliber field, in which six of the eight runners are graded stakes winners, and three of them grade I winners. To Honor and Serve is the morning line favorite off of a third-place finish in the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), in which a less-than-perfect trip surely contributed to his defeat. A versatile colt, he stamped himself as a classy horse right away with victories in the Remsen (gr. II) and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) as a juvenile, then added the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) and Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) as a three-year-old. This year, prior to his Met Mile run, he swept to an overwhelmingly easy victory in the Westchester Handicap (gr. III) over a good colt in Boys at Tosconova. Nine furlongs could end up being just behind his best range, but he certainly has the talent to make up for any potential stamina limitations that he may or may not have.
Another logical contender is Stay Thirsty, winner of the Travers Stakes (gr. I), Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), and Gotham Stakes (gr. III) last year, in addition to placing in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). He has only made one start this year, finishing a strong second in the Vanlandingham Stakes despite a tought trip. We know he likes it here at Belmont, and he should only be sharper in his second start of the year. Look for him to sit just off of the early lead and finish up with a strong run.
Mucho Macho Man won three straight races earlier last winter, culminating with a victory in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) over a strong field that included next-out grade I winner Jackson Bend, but was less than stellar last time out when finishing third beaten seven lengths in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly why he was beaten so soundly that day -- perhaps it was a combination of things -- but his subsequent sharp workouts, coupled with a rider switch to veteran Mike Smith, could be the combination that leads to an improved performance.
Other contenders in this deep field include Hymn Book, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) three starts back; Trickmeister, who defeated Stay Thirsty last time out in the Vanlandingham Stakes; Buffum, a lightly raced Goldolphin runner coming off of an eight-length allowance victory; Endorsement, winner of the Texas Mile (gr. III) two starts back; and Caixa Eletronica, a versatile sprinter/router that won the Charles Town Classic (gr. II) earlier this year.
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The Hollywood Gold Cup is not the only graded stakes race on the Saturday card. Fillies and mares on the turf are the stars of the $150,000 Royal Heroine Mile Stakes (gr. II), named for the French mare that won the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I) here at Hollywood Park. The morning line favorite in this race is All Star Heart, a super-talented mare with an incredible turn of foot. Trained by Ron McAnally, she enters this race off of three straight victories, and has won five of her last six starts over all. Last time out, she showcased her turn of foot to win the Redondo Beach Handicap here at Hollywood by a half length while closing brilliantly into a quickly run final furlong. If she can repeat that effort, and there's no reason to think that she shouldn't, then she should prove extremely tough to beat today. Of the rest, grade I-placed Quiet Oasis figures to have the best chance of pulling off an upset, but she would likely need an improved effort in order to do so. Nereid, Briecat, and Up In Time are other well-respected contenders.
At Calder Race Course . . .
Race 8: The main question in the six-furlong Carry Back Stakes (gr. III) is whether or not the morning line favorite, Trinniberg, will run here or in the Smile Sprint Stakes (gr. II) later on the card. As I am writing this, he hasn't scratched from either, so for the moment, let's assume that he runs in the Smile Sprint. If that were to be the case, than favoritism in this spot would likely go to Fort Loudon, a five-time Calder stakes winner that is 6-for-8 overall at this track. In his last two starts, he has soundly defeated fellow Carry Back contenders Hello Prince and Angelofdistinction, which makes him a logical selection for another victory today. Argentine Tango could potentially give him a run for the money, but he lost to Fort Loudon three times last year, and is coming off of a badly-beaten third in an allowance race last time out.
Race 10: It's hard to make a selection in the $400,000 Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II), given the depth and quality of the field, but the race favorite could end up being Trinniberg should he run here rather than in the above-discussed Carry Back Stakes. Given that he has won three graded sprint stakes this year, he would be a deserving favorite, but a couple of factors could make him beatable in his debut against older horses. For one thing, he seems to be best at seven furlongs, and he could find the increased pace pressure of six furlongs a bit much for him. And he'll be facing older horses for the first time, which is never a super easy task. On talent alone, he can win this race, but there are plenty of other runners capable of taking him down under the right circumstances.
One of those is Gantry, who won a trio of stakes races during the Fair Grounds meet before finishing a game third in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) behind a pair of terrific colts in Shackleford and Amazombie. He needs a strong pace in front of him to set up his stretch kick, but there does seem to be enough speed in here to do just that, so expect to see him finishing strongly in the homestretch.
Another obvious contender is Field Commision, who is actually the morning line favorite off of a decisive victory in the Ponche Handicap here at Calder on June 9th -- which just happened to be his first start in about 1 1/2 years. Given how impressive he was in his first start back, one has to think that he'll be even better today. If that is the case, then good luck beating him.
Apriority, a tough old sprinter looking for his first victory of the year, and Indiano, a perfect 3-for-3 at Calder, are other major contenders.
Race 11: Last year's Eclipse champion female sprinter, Musical Romance, headlines the field for the $400,000 Princess Rooney Handicap (gr. I). Coming off of a runner-up effort in the Humana Distaff (gr. I) behind runaway winner Groupie Doll, she is based here at Calder and is clearly coming into this race in good fashion -- after all, any horse that can breeze a half-mile in :46 1/5 here at Calder, like Musical Romance did on June 29th, is bound to be in good form. This, coupled with the fact that she ran second in this race last year -- makes her definitely the one to beat.
Nicole H, second in the Vagrancy Handicap (gr. II) last time out, and Bouquet Booth, decisive winner of a Churchill allowance race on May 24th, are other obvious contenders.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Race 10: The $200,000 Monmouth Cup Stakes (gr. II) marks the return of last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) winner Flat Out, who in unraced since finishing fifth in the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February. He's been training well for his new conditioner, Bill Mott, and while the one-mile distance of today's race may be a bit on the short side for him, it does look like a good spot to get him back to the races. Rule, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, will be making his first start since finishing seventh in the Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (gr. II), and while he may need to get a race under his belt before returning to his best form, he should appreciate the distance of this race. And if the two favorites fail, look for San Pablo, Sloane Ranger, or even Ponzi Scheme to pull off an upset.
Race 11: This year's running of the United Nations Stakes (gr. I) hasn't drawn the best of fields, nor the largest, but the seven horses entered in this eleven-furlong turf marathon should put on an interesting show. The morning line favorite is Turbo Compressor, looking to give trainer Todd Pletcher his fourth victory in this race. While there's no denying he's in good form -- he won the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes three weeks ago -- eleven furlongs may be a bit beyond his range. If that is the case, then Air Support, who finished a strong second in the Colonial Turf Cup, should be able to take advantage of the situation. Brilliant Speed, who finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), and Slim Shadey, a graded stakes winner that has finished second in a pair of grade I turf events this year -- are also among the favorites. Also entered is Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III). While it's true that he has not been in very good form lately, you can't knock his soundness, and you never know when he's going to step up and run his best race.
-Keelerman
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