We shall begin our analysis with the $200,000 Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), the first graded stakes race of the Belmont Park fall meet.
Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II)
Ten furlongs on the Belmont Park inner turf course
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Air Support | John Velazquez |
| 2 | Brilliant Speed | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Newsdad | Junior Alvarado |
| 4 | Bombaguia | Edgar Prado |
| 5 | Brujo de Olleros | Julien Leparoux |
| 6 | Redeemed | No rider |
Note: Redeemed has been entered for the main-track only, and is expected to scratch.
While the field may be on the small side, there is no denying that there is a lot of talent in the race. The morning line favorite, excluding Redeemed, is Air Support, from the barn of Shug McGaughey. The four-year-old son of Smart Strike had an exceptional season last year, winning the Virginia Derby (gr. II) and Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) with impressive late runs. But this year, yielding turf and slow paces have kept him from finding the winner's circle in five starts, although he has turned in some excellent efforts. Three starts back, he rallied well after a poor start to finish second in the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes behind Turbo Compressor, then finished second to that rival again in the $750,000 United Nations Stakes (gr. I) while running his final eighth in about :11.14 seconds. His most recent effort was less-than-stellar, as he finished a weakening third in an allowance race at Saratoga, but a slow pace, yielding turf, and a short distance were probably responsible. Stretching back out to ten furlongs today, he should have every chance at finally returning to the winner's circle, although there doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in this spot.
Brilliant Speed was also very good last year, winning the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) and Saranac Stakes (gr. III) in addition to placing in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), Belmont Stakes (gr. I), and Jamaica Handicap (gr. I), but has finished no better than third in five starts this year. However, he has actually been in sneakily good form, turning in a particularly good effort two starts back when sixth in the United Nation Stakes (gr. I). That day, he was reserved too far off of a slow pace, and when the winner turned in a final eighth of about :11 1/5 seconds, Brilliant Speed had no shot at rallying for the victory, but still closed his final eighth in less than eleven seconds to make up some ground. Last time out, he finished third in the Sword Dancer Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga behind the exceptional Point of Entry, but showed more speed than usual and could find himself right near the lead today while taking a small drop in class. From there, he should be able to out-kick his rivals with a little bit of luck.
Newsdad looked like a potential star early this year when he won the Pan American Stakes (gr. II) by an impressive two lengths, but seems to have gone off-form since then, finishing fifth in the Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II), fourth in the Man o' War Stakes (gr. I), and fourth in the Sword Dancer Handicap (gr. I). He could certainly benefit from the expected lack of pace in today's event, as he has shown enough speed in the past to be on the lead; a return to form would make him quite dangerous, but it's hard to say for certain if even his best could defeat Air Support and Brilliant Speed.
The lightly-raced Brujo de Olleros has only made six starts, with the first five of those coming in Uruagay, where he was a group I winner. However, in his American debut, he finished an unimpressive fourth in the Majestic Light Stakes at Monmouth Park, and he is now stretching out farther than he has ever raced before and trying turf for the first time. The obstacles against him seem formidable, but he does have Julien Leparoux in the saddle, and in this five-horse field, hitting the board is certainly a possibility, and who knows? Perhaps he'll relish the turf and dominate!
Bombaguia has only won three times in sixteen starts, but is coming off of a solid victory in a 1 3/16th miles turf allowance race at Saratoga and seems to be in good form. Plus, he could potentially be the early leader if no one else is sent early, which is a distinct possibility. But this is a big step up in class, and he'll have to be good to hold off Brilliant Speed and Air Support.
My selection is Brilliant Speed, with all due respect to Air Support. I've thought all year that Brilliant Speed has been in better form than he appears to be, and this looks like the spot for him to get back in the winner's circle. I envision him tracking the early pace before accelerating strongly in the homestretch to hold off a late run from Air Support.
Other Race of Note
At Arlington Park . . .
Race 7: The Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III) is lead by the undefeated Muppet Man, winner of the Meadowlake Stakes here at Arlington in his last start. He is running a furlong farther today than he has even run in the past, but the way he won the Meadowlake, I doubt that it will be much of an issue. Mylute, who broke his maiden going six furlongs last time out, and Pataky Kid, with Garrett Gomez aboard, are also expected to contend in this wide-open race.
Race 8: The Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr. III), the fillies equivalent of the Futurity, has drawn a practically indecipherable field of fourteen lightly-raced juveniles. The morning line favorite is Gold Edge, winner of the Lisa M. Stakes last time out, but there are at least a half-dozen other obvious win contenders, which is reflected by the fact that the co-longest shot on the board, American Sugar, is a stakes winner!
At Belmont Park . . .
Race 4: The $80,000 Affiliate Stakes may not appear to be a very prestigious event on the surface, but the six-furlong overnight stakes marks the return of Sean Avery, unraced since winning the 2011 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I). On talent alone, he can contend, but if he isn't quite ready to win in his first start back, then nine-time stakes winner Royal Currier or the talented Crossbow could certainly pull off a mild upset.
At Louisiana Downs . . .
Race 3: The $50,000 Temperence Hill Stakes is another minor stakes that has drawn a major name, the name in question here being Gantry. The five-year-old gelding won the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II) earlier this year to guarantee himself a berth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), and his connections have chosen this spot as his prep race. He looks like a deserving odds-on favorite, with Kelly's Landing Stakes winner Delaunay and the graded stakes-placed Jake Mo looking like logical upset contenders if the favorite were to disappoint.
Race 10: An evenly-matched field of nine three-year-olds have been entered in the $500,000 Super Derby (gr. II), with Swaps Stakes (gr. II) winner Blueskiesnrainbows the favorite at 3-2. While it is true that his biggest win came over a synthetic track, the Bob Baffert-trainee did finish a terrific third in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) back in April, and should have no trouble handling the dirt today. Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Hero of Order, two-time group I winner Fly Lexis Fly, grade I-placed Rousing Sermon, and West Virginia Derby (gr. II) runner-up Bourbon Courage also loom as intriguing contenders.
At Presque Isle Downs . . .
Race 6: The star of the $400,000 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes (gr. II) is Groupie Doll, who is making her first start since suffering a minor injury earlier this year. Obviously, the main question is simply whether or not she's ready to win in her first start back, but if she is anywhere near the form that brought her victories in the Madison Stakes (gr. I) and Humana Distaff (gr. I) earlier this year, she should win this race. The speedy It's Me Mom could make things interesting if she fires her best shot, but she is somewhat inconsistent, and you never know when she's going to falter badly. Salty Strike has won three straight, but was badly beaten by Groupie Doll in the Humana Distaff and has drawn a poor post.
-Keelerman
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