SUPER STATURDAY STAKES ANALYSIS

With just five weeks remaining until the 29th running of the Breeders' Cup, the racing action is really starting to get exciting. On Saturday, a massive ten grade I races are scheduled to be run at Belmont Park and Santa Anita, with dozens upon dozens of potential Breeders' Cup contenders getting in their final prep races. Let's start handicapping!

Beldame Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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This appears to be pretty much a match race between Royal Delta and It's Tricky, with the other five entrants vying for the minor awards. Royal Delta has flashier credentials, having won last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (gr. I) and Alabama Stakes (gr. I) -- defeating It's Tricky on both occasions -- but the latter filly may be able to turn the tables today.

I have three reasons for thinking It's Tricky shall win: A -- She is undefeated in one-turn races like the Beldame. B -- She has proven herself over sloppy tracks, like the one expected tomorrow, and C -- She ran incredibly well in defeat last time out, overcoming a horrific stumble at the start of the Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga to finish third, just a neck behind runner-up Royal Delta.

Now, don't get me wrong, Royal Delta deserves plenty of respect, and can most certainly win this race. In fact, I expect her to rebound from her so-so Personal Ensign form. However, the fact that this race is only one turn does concern me, and she was soundly beaten in this race last year over a sloppy track. She may be a better bet five weeks from now in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, where the combination of the expected faster track and return to two-turns should help her chances immensely.

Kelso Handicap (gr. II)

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To Honor and Serve is the logical favorite, as he is coming off of a gritty victory in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga and should handle the one-mile distance of this race just fine. But he's got some strong competition up against him, including Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I) winner Shackleford. Now, Shackleford's summer campaign did not go very well. He performed dismally over a wet track in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) and missed an expected start in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) after coming down with a cough. He's over his issues now, and returns to the site of his Met Mile triumph, but is he sharp enough to defeat To Honor and Serve over a track condition that he really doesn't care for?

I think that Jersey Town is an intriguing contender. Soundness issues have plagued throughout his career, but when he is right, he can run with the best. And I think that his strong effort in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) earlier this month signals he is ready for a big performance tomorrow. In the Forego, he made a premature run along the rail to grab the lead before understandably tiring in the final furlong. With that race under his belt, he should be much sharper, and while he may not be up to handling To Honor and Serve, don't be surprised if he outruns his 12-1 morning line odds.

Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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This is undoubtedly one of the most wide-open races on the card, with every one of the ten entrants having a decent shot at cracking the trifecta. Justin Phillip is the favorite off of a runner-up effort in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I), in which he was just edged out by fellow Vosburgh starter Poseidon's Warrior.

Sean Avery is intriguing off of a victory in an overnight stakes earlier this month, in which he defeated Zero Rate Policy and Royal Currier. He has drawn a good post position for his running style, and I envision him biding his time just off the pace before rallying into the lead at the three-sixteenths pole and holding off the closers for a convincing victory.

Caixa Eletronica can turn in a powerful rally if the early pace is sufficient enough, and it wouldn't be

Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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This is another race with top-to-bottom talent in which every contender deserves at least a look. Dream Peace is the favorite off of a runner-up finish to Winter Memories in the nine-furlong Diana Stakes (gr. I), and the Irish-bred filly looks to improve on that performance tomorrow while making her first start for trainer Chad Brown. And given her record at ten furlongs, there is no doubt that she can handle the added distance of today's event.

Chad Brown's other entrant, Zagora, also looks like a solid contender. True, she was third behind Dream Peace in the Diana, but she subsequently rebounded to break the Saratoga track record in the Ballston Spa Handicap (gr. II) last month, and is clearly coming into this race in good form. However, she does seem to prefer firm turf, and she may find the ground tomorrow a bit soft for her taste. And ten furlongs might be a bit beyond her best distance as well.

One mare that should like the soft turf is I'm A Dreamer, who on the Beverly D. Stakes (gr. I) last time out over yielding turf. She should also enjoy the distance, making her a legitimate contender in this spot.

Nahrain, runner-up in last year's Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I), would be a major contender if in peak form, but she has not finished better than third in three starts this year and appears to be off-form.

There are plenty of other contenders as well, but I think Dream Peace looks like a solid favorite.

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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Point of Entry is 4-5 on the morning line for a reason -- he is riding a four-raced winning streak that includes two straight grade I wins. He has terrific stamina and tremendous turn-of-foot. He has enough tactical speed to be involved early if the pace is slow. In my opinion, he is the most likely winner on the card.

Little Mike is an admirable colt with exceptional credentials, and he deserves respect based off of his front-running victory in the Arlington Million (gr. I) last month over a yielding turf course. He has enough speed to take this field a long way on the front end, but he'll be running two furlongs farther than he ever has before, and over that route of ground, I have to side with Point of Entry for the win.

Also intriguing is Finnegans Wake, a three-year-old colt from the barn of Dale Romans. Coming off of a runner-up effort in the Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) over a yielding turf course, he has the pedigree to be in the mix and should be coming fast late.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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The 94th running of this prestigious race has drawn a very deep field of ten, with Ron the Greek the mild favorite on the morning line at 5-2. Winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) this season, he enters to Gold Cup off of a sharp runner-up effort to Fort Larned in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I), a race in which the Bill Mott-trainee was forced to circle the field on the far outside before falling just 1 1/4 lengths short. Running a furlong farther today, all reasoning says that Ron the Greek should easily catch his Whitney conqueror today.

However, Fort Larned has credentials of his own, and catching him over this ten-furlong distance may not be as easy as it seems. Take another look at his Whitney victory -- he was three-wide around both turns while chasing a fast pace, yet drew off to a powerful victory nonetheless. And remember, he was only be hand-urged in the stretch.

In addition, let us recall that Belmont Park is a rather speed-favoring track, and that its speed-favoring nature becomes only more pronounced over wet tracks. If the track comes up sloppy tomorrow, it is very possible that Fort Larned could go straight to the lead, set a moderate pace, and accelerate away in the homestretch to win the race in easy fashion -- much like Haynesfield did two years ago.

So having made my case for Fort Larned, I might as well pick him to win. Of course, if I don't detect a strong speed bias during the early races on the Belmont card, I may switch to the Ron the Greek camp.

Other contenders worth mentioning include Flat Out and Hymn Book. The first-mentioned colt has not won a race since taking the 2011 Jockey Club Gold Cup in the slop. But there are plenty of reasons to like him this year too -- not only has he proven himself thoroughly over the Belmont main track, and in the slop as well, he enters off of a strong third-place effort in the Whitney, in which he was beaten just a head by Ron the Greek.

As for Hymn Book, he is 4-for-5 on wet tracks and 0-for-6 on fast tracks, making it clear that he would relish a sloppy track tomorrow. In addition, he has never finished worse than second in four starts here at Belmont,

There are only two concerns -- one, the pace may be a bit slow for his late run, and two, he may be just a half-notch below the top contenders in this race. But there's no denying that he can be a top-class horse on his best day, and his bullet half-mile breeze on September 23rd signals that he is ready for a big effort.

Atigun and Fast Falcon are a pair of three-year-olds that ran well in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) despite encountering traffic issues. Both seem suited to the ten-furlong distance of this race, but are unproven against older horses. On the other hand, they have run speed figures that would make them at least mildly competitive in this spot, and should either of them improve just a bit, they could surprise everyone by cracking the trifecta.

Chandelier Stakes (gr. I)

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Executiveprivilege is the heavy favorite here for a reason. Trained by Bob Baffert, she is undefeated in four starts, and that includes a trio of stakes victories. Most recently, she won the prestigious Del Mar Debutante (gr. I) in late-running fashion, and she appears to be the kind of filly that will relish two-turns and dirt -- which are the conditions she will find today.

Perhaps the filly most likely to pull off an upset is Beholder, who broke her maiden impressively second time out for trainer Richard Mandella before finishing just a nose behind Executiveprivilege in the Del Mar Debutante. She possesses a great deal of tactical speed, and could potentially steal the race on the front end if the Santa Anita main track is it's usual speed-favoring self.

Salamera is also intriguing off of her runner-up effort in Saratoga's Adirondack Stakes (gr. II), but is now shipping across the country and stretching out two furlongs in distance.

For the record, I'll side with Executiveprivilege, assuming that the track is playing more-or-less fair on Saturday. But if I feel there is a strong enough speed bias, I may switch to Beholder.

FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I)

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With Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) winner Rolling Fog out with a minor injury, it appears as though Futurity runner-up Know More is the horse to beat. The son of Lion Heart was able to accomplish in his first start what few horses ever do -- that is, win a graded stakes race without any previous racing experience. His subsequent runner-up effort in the Futurity was by no means a disappointment, as he overcame a great deal of traffic to lose by just 1 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Bob Baffert has entered a trio of colts in Carving, Den's Legacy, and Power Broker. The first-mentioned colt has the best credentials, as he is undefeated in two starts, including a victory in the C.B. Afflerbaugh Stakes on the dirt at Fairplex. But Den's Legacy warrants respect off of a sharp victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar, and being a son of Medaglia d'Oro, one has to think he could stretch out around two turns. And while Power Broker is still a maiden after three starts, he was beaten just a neck in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes last time out going a mile at Del Mar, despite setting a very quick pace. All three warrant consideration, but it's difficult to say for certain which one is best.

Dry Summer, winner of the Oak Tree Juvenile Stakes, switches from the grass to the dirt for this race, and judging by his pedigree, he should love the change.

Capo Bastone and Gabriel Charles, who finished fourth and sixth in the Del Mar Futurity despite tough trips, are both eligible to improve with cleaner trips, but two turns and dirt are unknowns for them.

It's a tough race to handicap, unlike last year, when Creative Cause and Drill were the clear-cit favorites. I almost convinced myself to go with Gabriel Charles for the win, but Know More has struck me as a horse of very high quality, and I feel good about his chances of success.

Zenyatta Stakes (gr. I)

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This deep field includes six grade I winners, and determining who will emerge victorious will not be an easy task. However, in the end, I think that it will come down to Include Me Out and Amani.

Include Me Out has compiled a stellar record this year, including victories in the Santa Margarita Stakes (gr. I) and Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I), in addition to placing second in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I). Plus, her favorite track seems to be Santa Anita, and she's very good at this 1 1/16th miles distance.

However, it's possible that Amani is capable of taking her down. A nearly undefeated champion in her native Chile, Amani has recorded a pair of starts here in the United States, finishing a close third to Include Me Out in the Clement L. Hirsch before coming home sixth in the Pacific Classic (gr. I) against males. Returning to dirt, upon which all of her success came in Chile, the possibility exists that Amani could rally from off-the-pace to catch Include Me Out in the final sixteenth of a mile.

But as I have discussed above, how the track is playing could greatly affect the results of the races, and if the track is speed-favoring, I probably wouldn't go with Amani. But as long as the track is more-or-less fair, I'll likely select the Chilean champion.

Other contenders include Love and Pride, winner of the Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga last time out; Switch, a multiple grade I winner trying to regain past form; Star Billing, close runner-up in the Clement L. Hirsch; and Love Theway Youare, upset winner of the Vanity Handicap two starts back.

Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I)

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Thirteen fillies and mares are entered in this wide-open ten-furlong turf race, and you can make a case for just about all of them.

The favorite will probably be Marketing Mix, who was beaten a nose by I'm A Dreamer in last month's Beverly D Stakes (gr. I) over a yielding turf course. Returning to firm turf, which she may slightly prefer, one has to think that she'll be tough to beat.

However, there are many other strong contenders in the race, and I like City to City. She has been finishing strongly at distances much shorter than ten furlongs, and I feel that will finish off her late run in powerful fashion this afternoon.

Let's Go Cheyenne is also interesting off of a front-running score in the CTT and Thoroughbred Owners of California Handicap, but she's facing much tougher today and may not get such an easy lead this time around.

Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I)

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The main question here is what kind of trip Game On Dude will receive. He's almost undoubtedly the fastest horse in the race, and possibly the country, and this is his favorite racetrack. But the front-running colt has been known to break slowly in the past, and has drawn the rail today. Suppose he breaks slowly and gets trapped off of the pace?

Well, perhaps that will happen, but even if he does, I think he's good enough to overcome it. And perhaps he'll break perfectly!

Nonios, runner up in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) two starts back, is an intriguing contender at a price. Richard's Kid deserves respect as well, but he hasn't run on dirt in several years and may be better on synthetics. Rail Trip is in a similar boat -- he has the talent, but is probably best over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track.

-Keelerman