Sam F. Davis Stakes Entries: Dynamic Sky looks for an encore

Dynamic Sky, whose eye-catching Pasco Stakes victory stamped him as a serious Kentucky Derby contend, will look to continue on the road to Louisville when he faces nine rivals in the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, the sight of his Pasco triumph.

Trained by Mark Casse, the son of Sky Mesa flashed a great deal of potential as a two-year-old, debuting with a third-place finish in the Vandal Stakes before winning the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine and finishing second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. He concluded his campaign with a troubled sixth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), in which was beaten just 5 1/4 lengths despite trying to rally over a speed-favoring track. Regular rider Luis Contreras will be aboard in the Sam F. Davis.

Divine Ambition, Silver Day, and Lightning Stone -- the respective 3rd-, 6th-, and 7th-place finishers in the Pasco -- are back to challenge Dynamic Sky again. Display Stakes runner-up My Name is Michael; Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes winner Speak Logistics; allowance winners Falling Sky and Balino; and recent maiden winners Midnite Poppa and Northern Lion round out the field.

Post Positions:
1 Silver Day
2 Divine Ambition
3 My Name Is Michael
4 Speak Logistics
5 Lightning Stone
6 Northern Lion
7 Balino
8 Falling Sky
9 Dynamic Sky
10 Midnite Poppa

-Keelerman

Robert B. Lewis Stakes Entries: He's Had Enough headlines small field

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) runner-up He's Had Enough and promising debut winner Flashback are among the four horses entered in Saturday's $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park.

The mile and a sixteenth race is a major prep for the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) in April, which is, in turn, a major prep for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) at Churchill Downs. Last year, I'll Have Another swept both the Robert B. Lewis and the Santa Anita Derby en route to a decisive victory in the Run for the Roses.

Interestingly, the same owner/trainer/jockey combo that produced I'll Have Another will be sending out He's Had Enough, who is a son of Tapit out of the Dixieland Band mare Amelia. The grey colt began his career with a victory over good horses like Cabello Del Cielo and Code West, then disappointed when sixth in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes and eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Those efforts were followed by an exceptional performance in the Breeders' Cup, in which he was beaten just a head by division champion Shanghai Bobby. He's Had Enough completed his two-year-old season with a fifth-place finish in the prestigious CashCall Futurity (gr. I).

Coincidentally, Flashback -- like He's Had Enough -- is also a grey son of Tapit. Trained by Bob Baffert, Flashback has raced just once, dominating a field of maidens on December 8th by 3 1/2 lengths. He was scheduled to contest the Sham Stakes (gr. III) in early January, but missed a key workout and was forced to skip the race. Since then, he has been training beautifully, most recently going five-eighths in :59.40 on January 28th. Julien Leparoux has the mount.

Baffert has also entered Den's Legacy, winner of the Generous Stakes (gr. III), runner-up in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), and third-place finisher in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). A son of Medaglia d'Oro, Den's Legacy will be ridden by Garrett Gomez.

Rounding out the field is Little Jerry, who broke his maiden first-time out with a powerful late run before finishing a non-threatening eighth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). The Robert B. Lewis will mark the third start of his brief career.

Post Positions:
PP#/Horse/Jockey/Trainer
1 Little Jerry/Tyler Baze/Richard Baltas
2 Flashback/Julien Leparoux/Bob Baffert
3 Den's Legacy/Garrett Gomez/Bob Baffert
4 He's Had Enough/Mario Gutierrez/Doug O'Neill

-Keelerman

Withers Stakes Entries: Revolutionary makes stakes debut

Revolutionary, a highly-promising maiden winner from the barn of Todd Pletcher, will make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the $200,000 Withers Stakes (gr. III) on Saturday at Aqueduct.

A son of War Pass out of the grade I-winning A.P. Indy mare Runup the Colors, Revolutionary began his career with a trio of defeats to such talented runners as Orb, Clawback, Always in a Tiz, and Little Distorted. He finally found the winner's circle in his fourth start, defeating next-out winner Transparent by 8 1/2 lengths in a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct. His performance was impressive enough to make Revolutionary the likely favorite in the Withers.

Javier Castellano will ride the colt, who is owned by WinStar Farm.

Siete de Oros, Amerigo Vespucci, and Long River -- the 2-3-4 finishers in last month's Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct -- are among Revolutionary's primary opposition. Damon Runyon Stakes winner Smooth Bert and impressive maiden winner Valid are also expected to contend. The lightly-raced Escapefromreality and maiden Champion Boy complete the lineup.

Post Positions:
1 Long River
2 Valid
3 Revolutionary
4 Escapefromreality
5 Amerigo Vespucci
6 Siete de Oros
7 Champion Boy
8 Smooth Bert

-Keelerman

Itsmyluckyday upsets Shanghai Bobby in Holy Bull Stakes

Itsmyluckyday wore down champion Shanghai Bobby to win the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, handing the previously undefeated colt the first defeat of his six-race career.

Ridden to victory by Elvis Trujillo, Itsmyluckyday got off to an excellent start at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and soon settled into third place as Shanghai Bobby and Clearly Now set moderately quick fractions of :23.34, :46.68, and 1:10.69 seconds. Frac Daddy, Fredericksburg, Tulira Castle, and Bern Identity were also flashing speed, while Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Joshua's Comprise were the early trailers.

Rounding the far turn, Itsmyluckyday advanced on the outside to challenge Shanghai Bobby for the lead, and the two colts hooked up in a stretch battle that quickly put them many lengths clear of the rest of the field. For a time, it appeared as though Shanghai Bobby might have enough left in the tank to hold off Itsmyluckyday, but the latter colt drew clear in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by two lengths. The final time of 1:41.81 was a new track record by nearly three-fifths of a second.

Clearly Now finished third, 11 1/2 lengths behind Shanghai Bobby. Joshua's Comprise, a 132.60-1 shot, rallied late to complete the superfecta. Bern Identity, Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, Tulira Castle, and Fredericksburg completed the order of finish.

The winner is a son of Lawyer Ron out of the Doneraile Court mare Viva La Slew. He is trained by Edward Plesa Jr. and is owned by Trilogy Stable and Laurie Plesa.

-Keelerman

A Three-Year-Old to Watch: Orb

Orb overcame a poor start to rally from last and win a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park this afternoon, stamping himself as a colt of excellent potential in the process.

With Joel Rosario aboard, Orb was off just a touch slowly and had to steady a bit while in tight on the first turn. As a result, he was last of seven horses early on as Duke of the City and Mountain Eagle set a moderate pace of :24.32 and :49.11 seconds. Saylor's Creek and Indy's Illusion were racing right behind the two leaders, followed by Uptown Anthem, Looking Cool, and Orb.

Rounding the final turn, Rosario guided Orb to the outside and allowed his mount to advance, and by the time the field turned for home, Orb was challenging Duke of the City for the lead. Those two put on quite a show down the homestretch, with Orb going by and opening up a 1 1/2 length advantage at the eighth pole before Duke of the City re-rallied and closed the gap to just under a length at the wire. The final time of 1:51.05 seconds was about four-fifths of a second slower than an identical allowance race earlier on the card.

Indy's Illusion rallied well in the final furlong to finish third, 2 3/4 lengths behind Duke of the City. Mountain Eagle, Uptown Anthem, Looking Cool, and Sayler's Creek completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Shug McGaughey and is owned by Stuart Janney III and the Phipps Stable. He is a son of Malibu Moon out of Lady Liberty, by Unbridled.

-Keelerman

A Three-Year-Old to Watch: Cerro

It seems that Team Valor International has found themselves another good Kentucky Derby contender! Cerro, an Irish-bred colt trained by Graham Motion, showed a great deal of promise in winning a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park by 2 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Cerro got off to an excellent start and quickly assumed command of the lead, setting fractions of :23.69 and :46.64 while being tracked by Wild Billum. El Gran Joyful, Sky Captain, and El Duro were next in line, while Craving Carats trailed the field.

Following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.65 seconds, Sky Captain moved up to challenge Cerro for the lead, but the front-running colt had something left in the tank, turning back Sky Captain's challenge and opening up a 2 1/2 length lead, which he maintained to the wire. The final time was 1:50.29 seconds.

Sky Captain finished second by three lengths over El Duro, while Wild Billum, El Gran Joyful, and Craving Carats completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Mr. Greely out of the Giant's Causeway mare Ballette, has now compiled a record of 2-0-1 from five starts, with earnings of $46,125.

-Keelerman

A Three-Year-Old to Watch: Transparent

Transparent, who had been second, third, or fourth in his first five starts, finally broke through with a victory on Saturday afternoon at Aqueduct, drawing off to win a one-mile and seventy-yard maiden special weight by 5 3/4 lengths despite encountering severe interference leaving the first turn.

With jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, Transparent got off to an excellent start and soon settled into fourth place outside of horses as Able Baker Charlie, Bolt Action, and Hoppy Do led the way through an opening quarter mile of :24.28 seconds. Star Jumping, Buddy's Tiz, and Inmyfathersimage were the trailers.

Entering the backstretch, Able Baker Charlie bore out suddenly, carrying Transparent and Bolt Action out many paths and forcing the latter to check sharply. All three colts eventually recovered and shifted back toward the inside rail, but all three lost a great deal of positioning in the process.

Amazingly, this didn't hurt Transparent's chances one bit. Following a half-mil in :49.39 seconds, the heavy favorite began to advance on the far outside, and stuck his head in front following three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.70. Then, under a hand ride, Transparent opened up a commanding lead in the homestretch, eventually hitting the wire well in front while stopping the clock in 1:43.60 seconds. Under the circumstances, it was an exceptionally good performance.

Inmyfathersimage finished second after contending for the lead at the top of the stretch, while Buddy's Tiz, Start Jumping, Bolt Action, Hoppy Do, and Able Baker Charlie completed the order of finish.

The winner is a son of Bernardini out of the Unbridled's Song mare Habiboo. He is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and is owned by Darley Stable.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-26-13

In my opinion -- and in the opinion of many others as well -- today's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park is by far the best Derby prep of the year thus far. Not only do you have the champion two-year-old Shanghai Bobby making his three-year-old debut, you also have such talented colts as Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Itsmyluckyday, and Bern Identity set to oppose him. So without further ado, let's take a closer look!

Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)

1 1/16th miles on the main track

Aside from all the talented horses in the race, handicapping the Holy Bull is made difficult by two important factors: A; the race starts right on the first turn, which results in horses drawn outside getting hung very wide at the start of the race, and B; the race will conclude at the sixteenth pole, leaving little time for the late runners to get their runs uncorked.

Further confusing things is the speed-favoring nature of Gulfstream's main track. Oftentimes, the early leaders will parade around the racetrack without changing order, while the closers struggle to get involved.

Or at least, that's what typically happens. Yesterday, however, horses were rallying on the outside all day long, while the front-runners tired without excuse in the final furlongs. Whether that will be the case again today is debatable, but it will be worth watching the early races on the card to see how the track is playing.

If all these factors hold true in the Holy Bull, the winner should be an off-the-pace runner -- not the deep closing kind, but one that sits a few lengths off the lead -- that is drawn inside. The question is, does such a horse exist?

Actually, there are two that I feel fit the bill. They are Bern Identity and Frac Daddy. The latter colt is very lightly raced -- he made just three starts last year -- but showed a great deal of grit in finishing second to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at the same 1 1/16th miles distance of today's race. Now, he's only had four workouts since his return to training late last year, so it's possible that he's not dead-fit for this race, but his versatility and tactical speed should enable him to work out a great trip from post position two.

Bern Identity compiled an exceptional record as a two-year-old, winning the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and Jean Lafitte Stakes in addition to placing in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). He possesses enough tactical speed to be involved early, as well as the tractability to settle a few lengths off the pace and finish up with a strong run. This combination, along with the fact that he has drawn post position four, should make him a serious contender this afternoon. But, it's worth noting that he was beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Shanghai Bobby in their only meeting, and it's hard to say if he's improved enough to take down the champ.

Speaking of Shanghai Bobby, he is obviously going to be a huge favorite this afternoon, and deservedly so. It seems as though there is nothing he can't do -- he's unbeaten in five starts at 4-1/2 furlongs, 5-1/2 furlongs, 7 furlongs, 1 mile, and 1 1/16th miles. He ran a half-mile in :45 2/5 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and still held off the closers to win. He has turned in a number of strong workouts in preparation for this race. He has drawn the rail, which eliminates any chances of him being hung wide on the first turn. The only real concern is that he might break slowly and find himself stuck in traffic, but given his speed, I don't think it will be an issue.

Now, the horse whose form is trickiest to interpret is Itsmyluckyday. There is no denying that he's a good colt -- his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby last time out was exceptional, and his victory in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder last year was also quite strong. But there are a couple of things that worry me. One is his post position drawn (#7), which could result in Itsmyluckyday getting caught wide around the first turn. If he were a closer, it wouldn't bother me so much, but being a rather speedy colt, I am concerned that Itsmyluckyday may have to run very hard early to maintain his position around the first turn, which could leave him with little left in the tank for the homestretch.

Another concern is that his effort in the Gulfstream Park Derby might have been too good. It was much better than any performance he had turned in previously, which makes me wonder if he can repeat it today. If he can, he might be the horse to beat. But this is a pretty big step up in class, and running that huge again may be difficult.

Also returning from the Gulfstream Park Derby are Sr. Quisqueyano and Joshua's Comprise, the second- and fourth-place finishers. Both were soundly beaten that day, finishing 6 3/4 and 20 1/4 lengths behind Itsmyluckyday, respectively, and it's difficult to envision them improving enough to challenge for the victory.

Moving onward, we come to Dewey Square, who has been at the top of my Derby list ever since his third-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). What I liked about his performance that day was the way he finished after getting hung wide on both turns. Furthermore, he is bred to get better with age; he possesses enough tactical speed to stay in touch with the leaders; he is trained by the newly-crowned Eclipse champion trainer Dale Romans; and he turned in a spectacular five-furlong bullet work six days ago. Dewey Square seems to be sitting on a top-notch performance, but his post position (#6) and the short homestretch could make things tricky. Nevertheless, I'm not really looking for a win from Dewey Square this afternoon -- so long as he runs a nice race and finishes up well, he will retain his position atop my Derby list.

Tulira Castle and Fredericksburg, the 1-2 finishers in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream in December, have both flashed talent during their brief careers and warrant some respect, but both have drawn outside post positions, making their already difficult task of winning the race even more tricky. Nevertheless, they both look like nice enough colts, and decent efforts today could propel them to better things further down the road.

Rounding out the field is Clearly Now, a Woodbine shipper that was most recently third in the Display Stakes. The switch to dirt could help his chances, and post position three should enable him to use his early speed to its highest potential, so don't be surprised if he's right in contention turning for home.

I really have no idea who to pick, as there are at least four or five horses I think can win. Really, this is one of those races that's more fun to watch than to handicap. But for the record, I like Shanghai Bobby,

Frac Daddy, and Dewey Square best, in just about any order.

Other Races of Note

While there are too many interesting races on the day's agenda to discuss them all, here are a few of the highlights I'll be looking forward to this afternoon:

Gulfstream Race 3 - Team Valor's Cerro caught my eye after finishing a good third to Bradester and Gunderman in a recent allowance race, and looks ready to roll in this similar spot.

Gulfstream Race 5 - Mountain Eagle looked great breaking his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream last month, and a repeat of that effort should win this race. Orb, who broke his maiden nicely at Aqueduct in November, also looks like a serious contender.

Gulfstream Race 7 - Bold Dance broke his maiden sharply on the turf last time out and should be even better stretching out another sixteenth of a mile.

Santa Anita Race 7 - Sharp maiden winner Omega Star will try to translate his brilliant turn-of-foot around two turns for the first time in the California Breeders Champion Stakes. John Shirreffs-trainee looks like a very good one.

Aqueduct Race 3 - Transparent ran well in defeat to Todd Pletcher's Revolutionary in a recent maiden special weight, and looks ready to graduate today.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 1-25-13

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He'll be getting a very stiff test on Saturday when he takes on Shanghai Bobby, Frac Daddy, and others in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). I don't really expect him to win, although a victory would be nice. I just want to see him put in a good run and stay on strongly to the finish. It's early, and we don't want him peaking too soon!

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He continues to train sharply at Palm Meadows, most recently going a half-mile in :49.93 on January 20th. He's pointing toward a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, so he appears to be right on track in terms of training.

3. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Exactly how well the juvenile champion has progressed since November will become clear on Saturday, when he makes his sophomore debut in the Holy Bull. The fact that he has drawn the rail is interesting -- he'll either have to go straight to the lead, which he can do, or take back and settle behind horses, which could give him valuable experience for a race like the Derby.

4. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He seems to be a bit behind in his training, and the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd is no longer the goal. As a result, I've chosen to drop him a notch until further notice.

5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
His workout pattern has me a little bit concerned, for after breezing a half-mile on January 4th, it took him until January 20th to return to the work tab again. He's obviously a very capable runner, but I doubt we'll be seeing him run for a while yet.

6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's still on track for a run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) toward the end of February, but after going a half-mile in a very easy :50.90 on January 20th -- his first work of the year -- it's clear that he is going to have to step up his training quickly, as it's probable that he'll only have four more works before then.

7. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
He's entered to run in a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race on Saturday at Gulfstream, which seems like an absolutely perfect spot for him to make his first start against winners. A strong field is entered to face him, so assuming he wins, expect him to move up on this list.

8. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Violence, he isn't very far along in his training thus far, as his half-mile breeze in :51.61 on January 20th implies. But Overanalyze has a bit more time to get ready for his three-year-old debut, as he is not expected to run until the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd.

9. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Forget the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte. Forget the fact that the final time wasn't all that impressive. What impressed me about Oxbow was the way he absolutely exploded in the homestretch after leading from the start. While all of his pursuers were weaving left and right, apparently exhausted, Oxbow was running straight as an arrow, and seemed to have something left in the tank. He'll get another major class test in the Risen Star Stakes next month, where he'll face Normandy Invasion and others, but at the moment, he looks up to the challenge.

10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
He still hasn't returned to the work tab yet, which worries me a little bit, but with his three-year-old debut not expected to come until March, he has time to get ready.

11. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I've heard a lot of talk about Titletown Five being off the Derby trail with an ankle chip, and perhaps that is the case. But Lukas has said that Titletown Five should be back to the races in late March, and while that wouldn't leave much time to get ready for the Derby, I think this colt is talented enough to warrant inclusion on my list until it's definite that he won't make the race.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Returned to the races in a big way last Saturday, holding his own against the impressive sprinter Majestic Hussar to finish second in a seven-furlong allowance race. While he didn't win, I thought it was a very strong performance for his first race since August, and he should only improve with additional time and distance.

13. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Drew post position two in the Holy Bull, which should suit his running style perfectly. I would like to see him break cleanly, settle just behind Shanghai Bobby during the early stages, and finish up with a good run to get a piece of the purse. Victory is secondary at this stage; he'll retain his ranking here as long as he puts in a respectable effort.

14. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's training up a storm at Santa Anita, most recently going five-eighths in a blazing :58.60 at Santa Anita on January 23rd. He is scheduled to make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) on February 2nd.

15. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Breezed six furlongs in company this morning with grade II winner Handsome Mike, clocking the distance in an exceptional 1:10.80. It’s hard to know what to do with him based on his inconsistent record, but he’s scheduled to make his seasonal debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he’ll have every chance to fire his best shot while returning to dirt.

16. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Failed to draw a good post position (#7) in the Holy Bull, and will have to be sharp to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. I've been having a hard time analyzing his Gulfstream Park Derby form, that is, determining whether it was a legitimate performance or a track bias-aided effort, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he fares on Saturday.

17. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Numerous options have been discussed for this colt, including a run in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn, followed by the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park. Other possibilities include the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) or San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita.

18. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
His inclusion here is based more on pedigree than thus-far racing record, but his 7 1/2-length maiden triumph at Fair Grounds on January 12th was a major step in the right direction, slow time and drifting stretch run aside.

19. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
He's entered in the California Breeders Champion Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita, where he will stretch around two turns for the first time. Although the race is restricted to California-breds, there are some pretty good colts in the race, and they should provide Omega Star a good, stiff challenge.

20. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
There are at least a half-dozen horses that I could have included in this twentieth spot, but I decided to include Revolutionary because -- quite frankly -- his maiden victory at Aqueduct in December was about as impressive a maiden victory as you'll ever see. Coming off of three consecutive in-the-money efforts against other good maidens, Revolutionary finally seemed to put it all together in his fourth start, rattling off quarter-mile fractions of :23.85, :23.60, :24.28, and :24.79 to win by 8 1/2 lengths. For his effort, he received a massive Beyer speed figure of 102, the highest of 2012 for a two-year-old colt.

21. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I decided to extend this week’s list to 21 in order to include this half-brother to 2012 Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Take Charge Indy. He showed a lot of grit in overcoming a difficult trip to win the Smarty Jones Stakes by a neck. Getting hung six-wide on the first turn would eliminate many horses from contention, but Will Take Charge overcame it in good fashion and simply wouldn't give in down the stretch. He's still a bit on the slow side from a speed-figure perspective, but I think there's plenty of improvement still to come.


*****

You may have noticed that Uncaptured is no longer on my list. This is most likely a temporary change -- I have removed him because he has been off the work tab with a foot bruise that set back his schedule. I’m sure he’ll be back in serious training before too long, but until he gets back on the work tab, I've decided to drop him from my list.

-Keelerman

Mountain Eagle entered in Saturday allowance race

Mountain Eagle, a promising three-year-old maiden winner trained by Nick Zito, is entered to race on Saturday in a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park.

A son of Birdstone out of the Gulch mare Gulch Legacy, Mountain Eagle finished fourth sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs in his debut at Churchill Downs, then stretched out to a mile at Gulfstream Park and promptly won by 4 1/2 lengths. Owned by Marylou Whitney Stables, a victory by Mountain Eagle would likely launch him on his way to a major Kentucky Derby prep race.

Others entered in the race include Orb, who beat the super-promising Revolutionary when breaking his maiden on November 24th at Aqueduct; Looking Cool, who won a maiden special weight here at Gulfstream in gritty fashion on January 5th; Saylor's Creek, most recently seen breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs over subsequent LeComte Stakes (gr. III) runner-up Golden Soul; and Uptown Anthem, who has placed in a trio of stakes races at Calder.

Post Positions
1 Saylor's Creek
2 Duke of the City
3 Orb
4 Looking Cool
5 Indy's Illusion
6 Uptown Anthem
7 Mountain Eagle

-Keelerman

Holy Bull Stakes Entries: Shanghai Bobby draws rail in 3yo debut

Recently crowned Eclipse champion two-year-old colt Shanghai Bobby has drawn the rail in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), the first start of his sophomore campaign.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Shanghai Bobby was unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile, culminating with a tenacious victory in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), which secured him the honor as champion of the division. The Holy Bull, an 8.5-furlong race that will be held on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, is the first of two planned prep races that will ready Shanghai Bobby for a run in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) on the first Saturday in May.

Lined up to face Shanghai Bobby in this deep renewal of the Holy Bull include horses like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, the second- and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); Bern Identity, winner of the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and runner-up in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III); Itsmyluckyday, dominate winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby; and Tulira Castle, sharp winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on December 8th.

Post Positions:
1 Shanghai Bobby
2 Frac Daddy
3 Clearly Now
4 Bern Identity
5 Sr. Quisqueyano
6 Dewey Square
7 Itsmyluckyday
8 Tulira Castle
9 Fredericksburg
10 Joshua's Comprise

-Keelerman

Will Take Charge hangs on in Smarty Jones Stakes

12-1 shot Will Take Charge gave trainer D. Wayne Lukas his second win in a Kentucky Derby prep race this weekend when he out-fought Texas Bling and held off Always in a Tiz to win the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes by a neck.

Ridden to victory by Jon Court, Will Take Charge got off to a decent start at the beginning of the one-mile race, but was caught six-wide entering the first turn and was still four-wide by the time the field entered the backstretch. Despite this difficult trip, Will Take Charge was able to recover well enough to settle into fourth-place as Avare and Texas Bling led the way through fractions of :23.11 and :46.65 seconds. King Henny, Always in a Tiz, Brown Almighty, and Officer Alex were are within a few lengths of the lead, while Best of Birdstone and Stormy Holiday were the trailers.

Moving around the final turn, Will Take Charge began to advance on the far outside, drawing to within a head of Texas Bling following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.89. He appeared capable of going right on by, but Texas Bling dug in tenaciously, and the two young colts put on a thrilling show from the top of the stretch all the way to the wire. It was unfortunate that one had to lose, but eventually, Texas Bling yielded just a bit, and Will Take Charge won by a neck in 1:38.64 seconds.

Always in a Tiz rallied fast in the final strides to finish third, and surely would have won had the race been just a few strides longer. Stormy Holiday finished fourth, 4 3/4 lengths behind the top trio. Brown Almighty, Officer Alex, Avare, Best of Birdstone, and King Henny completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Unbridled's Song out of Dehere mare Take Charge Lady, is owned by Willis D. Horton.

-Keelerman

Distinctiv Passion wins again in San Pedro Stakes

Heavily favored Distinctiv Passion brought his winning streak to three on Saturday at Santa Anita Park when he romped to dominating victory in the $75,000 San Pedro Stakes.

With regular rider Edwin Maldonado aboard, Distinctiv Passion bounded out of the starting gate and quickly assumed command of the lead, running the opening quarter mile of the six-furlong race in a blazing :21.55 seconds. Disarm, runner-up to Distinctiv Passion in a recent allowance race, was tracking his rival in second, while Hear the Ghost and Really Mr Greely trailed the four-horse field.

Moving around the turn, Distinctiv Passion began to open up on his rivals, and following a half-mile in a spectacular :43.61 seconds, he entered the homestretch well in command of the race. Disarm stayed on gamely in the final three-sixteenths of a mile, and Hear the Ghost rallied well in deep stretch, but neither colt ever threatened Distinctiv Passion, who coasted home under wraps to win by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:08.50 seconds.

Hear the Ghost edged Disarm for second by 1 3/4 lengths, while Really Mr Greely trailed the field by a large margin.

Distinctiv Passion is a son of With Distinction out of Dance Forthe Green, by West by West. Trained by Jeff Bonde and owned by Edward Brown Jr., Alan Klein, and Phillip Lebherz, Distinctiv Passion has now compiled a record of 3-0-0 from 5 starts, with earnings of $120,600.

-Keelerman

Clawback much the best in Jimmy Winkfield Stakes

Odds-on favorite Clawback unleashed a powerful run in the Aqueduct homestretch to win Monday's $75,000 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes by five dominating lengths.

Ridden to victory by Irad Ortiz Jr., Clawback got off to a good beginning at the start of the six-furlong race and quickly settled into second place as longshot Rubysandpearls led the way through an opening quarter mile in :22.67 seconds. In the Fairway, Meeker Avenue, and Winning Cause -- who stumbled at the start -- were the trailers.

Following a half-mile in :45.22 seconds, Clawback moved up strongly to challenge Rubysandpearls for the lead, gaining the advantage as they turned for home. The result was never in doubt after that, as Clawback drew off impressively to win by five lengths in the excellent time of 1:09.75 seconds.

Winning Cause put in a good late run to secure second by two lengths over Rubysandpearls, while In the Fairway and Meeker Avenue completed the order of finish.

Clawback, a son of Put It Back out of the Dixieland Band mare Cloudrunner, is trained by Richard Violette Jr. and owned by Klaravich Stables and Lawrence William.

-Keelerman

San Pedro Stakes Entries: Distinctiv Passion makes stakes debut

Distinctiv Passion, impressive winner of an allowance race last month, is the 4-5 morning line favorite in Monday's $75,000 San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

Trained by Jeff Bonde, Distinctiv Passion possesses terrific early speed and figures to relish the six-furlong distance of the San Pedro. Edwin Maldonado, who rode the colt to victory in all four of his starts, will be aboard again on Monday.

Disarm, runner-up to Distinctiv Passion in that recent allowance race, is back to challenge the favorite again. Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) winner Really Mr Greely, from the barn of Bob Baffert, is also entered. Powerful debut winner Hear the Ghost and maiden claiming winner Resist complete the lineup.

Post Positions:
1 Distinctiv Passion
2 Disarm
3 Really Mr Greely
4 Hear the Ghost
5 Resist

-Keelerman

Smarty Jones Stakes Entries: Avare ships in for O'Neill

California-shipper Avare, winner of the Eddie Logan Stakes for trainer Doug O'Neill, will attempt to add another stakes victory to his record when he heads to post as the likely favorite in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

Lined up to face Avare in this deep race include Brown Almighty, winner of the Sunny's Halo Stakes and runner-up in two other stakes events; Always in a Tiz, runner-up to Jerome Stakes (gr. II) winner Vyjack in the Traskwood Stakes; Officer Alex, winner of the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes; King Henny, a two-time stakes winner coming off a win in the Big Drama Stakes on January 5th; Texas Bling and Will Take Charge, the 1-2 finishers in the $300,000 Springboard Mile Stakes last month; Best of Birdstone, winner of the Razorback Futurity; and Stormy Holiday, a two-time winner that was most recently fourth in the Bellamy Road Stakes. All told, six of the nine entrants have won stakes races, a very impressive statistic indeed!

The Smarty Jones Stakes is one-mile in distance and is the first of Oaklawn's official Kentucky Derby prep races. The Smarty Jones will award ten Kentucky Derby qualification points to the winner, as well as four points to the runner-up, two to the third-place finisher, and one to the fourth horse across the wire.

Post Positions
1 Stormy Holiday
2 Always in a Tiz
3 Avare
4 Texas Bling
5 Best of Birdstone
6 Officer Alex
7 King Henny
8 Brown Almighty
9 Will Take Charge

-Keelerman

Oxbow romps to easy LeComte victory

The talented Oxbow, sent off as the third choice at 4.60-1, turned in a performance worthy of a 1-5 favorite in the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (gr. III) on January 19th at Fair Grounds, winning the one-mile and seventy-yard race by a spectacular 11 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Jon Court, Oxbow flashed speed from the start, going straight to the lead and setting moderate fractions of :24.44 and :48.58 seconds. Heitai was tracking him in second, three lengths ahead of Malibu High. Hawaakom, Avie's Quality, I've Struck a Nerve, Fear the Kitten, Circle Unbroken, and Golden Soul were the early trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Heitai and Ive Struck a Nerve both moved up strongly to challenge Oxbow for the lead, with Heitai drawing within a head of the front-runner following three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.34. However, Oxbow had plenty left in the tank, and turning for home, he kicked clear of his challenges and opened up a commanding advantage. From there, the race was over, as Oxbow continued to extend his lead all the way to the wire, which he reached in the very good time of 1:43.30 seconds.

Golden Soul rallied late to secure second by 1 1/2 lengths over Fear the Kitten, while Ive Struck a Nerve rounded out the superfecta. Malibu High, Circle Unbroken, Heitai, Avie's Quality, and Hawaakom completed the order of finish.

The winner is owned by Bluegrass Hall and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. He is a son of Awesome Again out of Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-19-13

A pair of official Kentucky Derby prep races are to be run over the next few days, beginning with the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds this afternoon and concluding with the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday. Due to time constraints, we will be previewing only the LeComte today, and saving the Smarty Jones for either Sunday or Monday. That said, let's get started on the LeComte!

The one-mile and seventy-yard race has drawn a field of ten, with Avie's Quality the morning line favorite at 5-2. The talented Woodbine shipper is coming off of two consecutive victories, including a decisive triumph in the Display Stakes. As this will be his debut on dirt, there is the question of whether or not he'll handle the track, but assuming he does -- his pedigree suggests he will -- he looks like the horse to beat, especially with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.

Two of the other favorites have major distance questions to answer. Circle Unbroken is the only graded stakes winner in the field, having won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs last June, but he's never run past six furlongs, and has not run since August. Given the circumstances, it's difficult to envision him winning this race, although he certainly warrants consideration further down the road in races like these.

Another of the favorites, Malibu High, is unbeaten in two starts for trainer Cecil Borel, but has not run beyond six furlongs, and doesn't have the strongest of pedigrees for stretching out.

Very intriguing to me is Golden Soul, a lightly-raced colt coming off of a dominating 7 1/4-length maiden victory here at Fair Grounds at the same distance of today's race. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is having an excellent meet, winning with 20% of his mounts, and Golden Soul's very sharp :48 2/5 workout on January 13th signals his readiness for this race. I think he's sitting on a winning effort.

On a similar note, Hawaakom won an identical one-mile and seventy-yard maiden special weight on December 15th, rallying in the sixth-path to win by 1 1/2 lengths. That alone would make him a contender here, and when you consider that trainer Daniel Peitz is winning at a 40% rate this meet, you have to think that Hawaakom is going to outrun his 20-1 odds this afternoon.

Oxbow and Fear the Kitten both ran well in graded stakes races last year, with Oxbow rounding out the superfecta in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Fear the Kitten rallying for fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). Both colts are well-bred and have the potential to run well here, but of the pair, I prefer Fear the Kitten, if not simply because Fear the Kitten's trainer Mike Maker has won with 45% of his starters this meet and is clearly doing something right!

Rounding out the field are Heitai, a four-time stakes placed Louisiana-bred facing open company for the first time; and I've Struck a Nerve, who tired badly in his two starts beyond seven furlongs. Both colts are longshots to win the race, but both have flashed enough talent to suggest that they could hit the board under the right conditions.

As for a selection . . . I really like the chances of Golden Soul and Avie's Quality, but I'll go with Hawaakom simply because I think 20-1 is way too high. Perhaps I'm missing something, but I'll take a shot.

****

As I write this, the first race of the day at Gulfstream Park has already been run, that being a seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-olds. The 4-5 favorite was Palace Malice, a Todd Pletcher-trained son of Curlin making his first start since breaking his maiden impressively at Saratoga last summer. Over a sloppy track, Palace Malice tracked the pace throughout, failed to match strides with front-running Majestic Hussar at the top of the stretch, but found another gear late to be closing ground at the finish. In the end, he was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths, while finishing eight lengths clear of the rest of the field. I thought it was an exceptional effort in his first start since August, and I expect to see a great deal of improvement next time out.

But let's give some credit to Majestic Hussar as well. He flashed a great deal of speed right from the start and was very tenacious in the homestretch, refusing to allow Palace Malice to reach even terms. The son of Majestic Warrior just keeps on getting better, and while it's difficult to say how far he wants to run, he does have an intriguing pedigree that suggests two turns are well within his reach.

On a side note, the results of this race did not reflect particularly well on the form of the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes, held here at Gulfstream on New Year's Day. In that race, City of Weston rallied to be beaten just three-quarters of a length by Merit Man in the slow time of 1:11.39 seconds. In today's allowance race, City of Weston was sent off at 18-1 and wound up third, 10 1/4 lengths behind Majestic Hussar. So, either the Spectacular Bid Stakes was a rather weak race, or else today's allowance race was of exceptionally high quality indeed!

-Keelerman

Majestic Hussar turns back Palace Malice in Gulfstream allowance race

Majestic Hussar turned back a determined bid from 4-5 favorite Palace Malice to win a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in excellent fashion on January 19th.

Over a track labeled sloppy, the speedy Majestic Hussar got off to a very quick beginning at the start of the race and quickly assumed command of the lead, setting fractions of :22.65 and :45.62 while being tracked by Palace Malice and Road Agent. City of Weston, Jay Eye See, and Pepe were also close to the pace, while All Keyed Up and D'nied Permission were the trailers by a large margin.

Rounding the far turn, Majestic Hussar began to open up on the field, while Palace Malice gamely tried to stay with him. Turning for home, Majestic Hussar had a lead of several lengths, and while Palace Malice was able to close some of the gap in the final eighth of a mile, Majestic Hussar held on gamely to win by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:22.53 seconds.

City of Weston finished third, many lengths behind the top pair, while Road Agent rounded out the superfecta. D'nied Permission, All Keyed Up, Jay Eye See, and Pepe completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Eddie Keneally and was ridden to victory by Jose Lezcano. Owned and bred by Joseph Witek, Majestic Hussar is a son of Majestic Warrior out of the Distorted Humor mare Distorted Blaze.

-Keelerman

A Three-Year-Old to Watch: Curly Top

Curly Top stamped himself as the latest up-and-coming Bob Baffert-trainee when he rallied past favored Footbridge to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by three-quarters of a length.

Ridden to victory by Martin Garcia, Curly Top was just a tad slow to get going from post position one, but soon settled comfortably along the rail in the third position as Footbridge and Syndicated led the way through fractions of :22.83 and :46.81 seconds. Forest Boy was racing on Curly Top's outside in fourth, followed by Coastal Breeze, Python, Apostle Paul, Dr. Spin, Colburn, and Moreno.

Following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.25 seconds, Footbridge kicked on for home and appeared to have the race sewn up. However, in the final eighth of a mile, Curly Top shifted to the outside under Garcia and wore down the favorite in deep stretch to win going away in 1:36.23 seconds.

Footbridge stayed on well to finish second, 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Syndicated. Colburn, Coastal Breeze, Forest Boy, Python, Dr. Spin, Apostle Paul, and Moreno completed the order of finish.

The winner is a son of Curlin out of Sultry Song mare Top Notch Lady. He is owned by Mercedes Stables.

-Keelerman

Eblouissante wins allowance race, remains unbeaten

Eblouissante, a half-sister to 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta, kept her unbeaten record intact when she rallied for a convincing victory in a 1 1/16th allowance optional claiming race on January 17th at Santa Anita Park.

Trained by John Shirreffs, Eblouissante was racing for the first time since winning her debut by 4 1/4 lengths on November 16th. Sent off as the 3-2 favorite under jockey Corey Nakatani, Eblouissante was off to a mildly slow start, and soon found herself racing in last place as longshot Folk Dancer led the way through fractions of :24.52 and :48.11. Pink Blossom was tracking the pace in second, followed by Viva Carina, Double Ante, and Eblouissante.

Rounding the final turn, Nakatani asked Eblouissante for run, and the four-year-old filly responded with an eye-catching burst of speed that carried her past everyone but Pink Blossom by the time she reached the homestretch. In a manner reminiscent of Zenyatta herself, Eblouissante seemed to idle upon striking the front, but she soon responded to Nakatani's continued urging and drew off late to win by 1 3/4 lengths.

The final time was 1:44.89 seconds. Pink Blossom stayed on gamely to finish second, followed by Folk Dancer, Double Ante, and Viva Carina.

Eblouissante is a daughter of Bernardini out of Vertigineux, by Kris S. Owned by Eric Kronfeld, Eblouissante's next start is expected to come in a stakes, with the $200,000 Santa Maria Stakes (gr. II) on February 16th and the $300,000 Santa Margarita Stakes (gr. I) on March 16th being possible options.

-Keelerman

LeComte Stakes Entries: Avie's Quality faces eight in American debut

Avie's Quality, sharp winner of the $150,000 Display Stakes at Woodbine last year, is scheduled to make his American debut on Saturday in the $200,000 LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds, an early prep for the Kentucky Derby later this spring.

Trained by Josie Carroll, Avie's Quality compiled a record of 2-1-1 from four starts as a two-year-old, with all of his starts coming at Woodbine racetrack in Canada. As a result, the LeComte will be his first race on dirt.

Rosie Napravnik, currently the leading rider of the Fair Grounds meet, will be aboard the son of Elusive Quality, whose dam is the grade I stakes-winning Lord Avie mare Fly for Avie.

Other prominent entrants include Circle Unbroken, winner of the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) last June but unraced since August; Malibu High, unbeaten in two starts for trainer Cecil Borel; Fear the Kitten, who finished a close fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); and Oxbow, most recently fourth in the prestigious CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park.

Post Positions:
1 Malibu High
2 Heitai
3 Fear the Kitten
4 Oxbow
5 Hawaakom
6 Avie's Quality
7 Golden Soul
8 Circle Unbroken
9 Ive Struck a Nerve

-Keelerman

Palace Malice entered to race on 1-19-13

Palace Malice, who broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga last summer before going to the sidelines with sore shins, will make his much-anticipated return on Saturday in the first race at Gulfstream Park, a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming event.

Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Dogwood Stable, the son of Curlin defeated a number of good horses in his maiden victory, including Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Hightail; Nick Zito's promising allowance winner Flying Bird; recent Gulfstream allowance runner-up Gunderman; and Bill Mott's good colt Gunderman.

Palace Malice will be ridden on Saturday by Javier Castellano, who was aboard the colt at Saratoga.

Other prominent entrants include City of Weston, who was most recently beaten a half-length in the Spectacular Bid Stakes; 7 1/4-length maiden winner Jay Eye See; and allowance optional claiming race runner-up Majestic Hussar.

Post Positions:
1 D'nied Permission
2 All Keyed Up
3 Pepe
4 City of Weston
5 Road Agent
6 Palace Malice
7 Majestic Hussar
8 Jay Eye See

-Keelerman

Overanalyze, Noble Tune return to work tab

A number of promising three-year-old colts returned to the work tab over the last two days, including Remsen Stakes (gr. II) winner Overanalyze and Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III) winner Noble Tune.

Both colts are spending the winter at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. Overanalyze, who is trained by Todd Pletcher, breezed three furlongs in :36.94 seconds on January 13th, his first workout since winning the Remsen at Aqueduct on November 24th.

Noble Tune also went three furlongs, getting the distance in :37.02 seconds on January 14th, in his first breeze since finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) on November 3rd. He is trained by Chad Brown.

Other prominent horses that turned in their first works of the new year at Palm Meadows included Frizette Stakes (gr. I) winner Dreaming of Julia (3f in :37.96); With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) winner Balance the Books (3f in :37.02); Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner Unlimited Budget (3f in :39.09); So Many Ways (3f in :37.72); and Futurity Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Carried Interest (3f in :37.38.)

-Keelerman

Eblouissante entered to race on 1-17-13

Eblouissante, a half-sister to 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta, is scheduled to make the second start of her career in a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park on January 17th.

The daughter of Bernardini out of Vertigineux broke her maiden in spectacular fashion on November 16th at Betfair Hollywood Park, but was subsequently scratched from an allowance race on December 15th after banging her hip in the receiving barn prior to the race.

Trained by John Shirreffs, Eblouissante is expected to be heavily favored in Thursday's race, where she will face just four rivals. Her primary opposition is expected to come from Viva Carina, who placed second in the Torrey Pine Stakes and fourth in the Autumn Miss Stakes (gr. III) last year.

Corey Nakatani will ride Eblouissante.

Post Positions:
1 Double Ante
2 Viva Carina
3 Folk Dancer
4 Pink Blossom
5 Eblouissante

-Keelerman

Zeewat overcomes trouble in California Derby

Heavily favored Zeewat overcame trouble at the start of the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields to win the 1 1/16th miles race with a strong late rally.

Ridden to victory by Russell Baze, Zeewat broke just a step slowly at the start of the race and was forced to check hard when Wildcat Moon drifted sharply inward immediately after the start. As a result, Zeewat -- who normally races close to the pace -- found himself back in fourth as Wildcat Moon led the way through fractions of :25.43, :50.60, and 1:15.25 seconds. Tree of Life and Will True Up were his closest pursuers, while My Best Bet, Butterfly Soul, and Condiment were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Baze guided Zeewat to the far outside, and the colt responded with a burst of speed that put him in contention at the top of the stretch. Wildcat Moon stayed on gamely in the final eighth of a mile, attempting to hold off the favorite's rally, but Zeewat was simply too good, getting up in time to win a length in 1:46.50 seconds.

Tree of Life finished third, followed by Butterfly Soul, Will True Up, Condiment, and My Best Bet.

Zeewat is a son of Harlan's Holiday out of Delizia, by Distant View. He is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and owned by George Todaro and Jerry Hollendorfer.

-Keelerman

Dynamic Sky overcomes rough trip in Pasco Stakes

Dynamic Sky overcame a rough trip to win the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on January 12th, the second stakes victory of his career and his first win on dirt.

Ridden to victory by Luis Contreras, Dynamic Sky got off to a good start at the beginning of the seven-furlong sprint, but soon found himself trapped behind horses as Mind Spell and Divine Ambition set quick fractions of :22.70 and :45.35. Sky Commander was racing about a length behind them in third, followed to his inside by Dynamic Sky and Lightning Stone. Hard to Name, O T B Bob, and Silver Day were the trailers.

Moving round the final turn, Dynamic Sky still lacked racing room, for the three leaders continued to race in a line that kept the colt pinned in toward the rail. However, as the field straightened out for home, Dynamic Sky was guided sharply to the outside by Contreras. He lost a bit of momentum in the process, but was finally clear of traffic and had an opportunity to win the race -- if he was good enough.

He was most certainly good enough.

Unleashing a strong turn-of-foot in the final eighth of a mile, Dynamic Sky blew right past his rivals terrific fashion, edging stablemate Sky Commander to win the race going away by three-quarters of a length. He stopped the clock in a quick 1:22.79 seconds, just 0.66 seconds off the track record of 1:22.13 set in 2011 by Manicero.

Divine Ambition stayed on well to finish third, 1 1/2 lengths behind Sky Commander, while O T B Bob, Mind Spell, Silver Day, Lightning Stone, and Hard to Name completed the order of finish.

The winner was bred in Ontario by Arosa Farms and is a son of Sky Mesa out of the Distorted Humor mare Murani. He is trained by Mark Casse and owned by John Oxley.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-13-13

Although there are no official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend, there are nevertheless a couple of intriguing three-year-old stakes races to be run at Golden Gate Fields and Tampa Bay Downs. And since you never know where the next Derby winner will come from -- Mine That Bird was, of course, in New Mexico at this time four years ago -- we had better take a look at who's running!

Pasco Stakes

Seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs

A field of ten had originally been entered, but the scratches of morning line favorite Purple Egg and 6-1 shot Falling Sky leave the race with eight runners.

Perhaps the most well-known horse in the race is Dynamic Sky, runner-up in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland last fall. Overall, his record is quite strong, but it's worth noting that all of his success has come on Polytrack, and that he was sixth in his only start on dirt. On the other hand, that effort came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) when he was attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track, so maybe his lack of success on dirt is a moot point.

One could also argue that the seven-furlong distance of the Pasco will be a bit short for Dynamic Sky, and that may be the case -- in the end, I think he'll be at his best around two turns. But he did win the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, and given the deep nature of Tampa's main track, Dynamic Sky's extra stamina could become a very useful asset in the final furlong.

His primary oppoisition is expected to come from Hard to Name, winner of two straight sprints at Parx Racing last autumn. His most recent effort, a poor ninth in the one-mile Dania Beach Stakes on the turf, can be forgiven. If he reverts to his Parx form, he has the speed to be a contender here.

Also intriguing -- perhaps even more so than Hard to Name -- is Mind Spell, who flashed good speed in winning a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd. Given his proven affinity for the Tampa main track, one has to consider him a legitimate contender in this seemingly wide-open race.

Lightning Stone, a 20-1 shot, is difficult to interpret  All four of his starts have been at one-mile or longer, and three of them -- including his two victories -- have been on turf. His lone run on dirt resulted in a 9 3/4-length defeat in a one-mile maiden special weight at Belmont, his career debut. Given his record, it would be difficult to endorse him in a seven-furlong dirt sprint, yet his pedigree seems to suggest that the main track might not be out of the question, and -- cutting back in distance off of four straight route races -- I can envision him flying late to secure a substantial part of the purse.

Sky Commander, who will run as an entry with Dynamic Sky, broke his maiden in good fashion two starts back, but could manage no better than eighth in the Display Stakes, his most recent effort. On the surface, that doesn't look like a very good record, but please note that in his maiden score, he edged Display winner Avie's Quality by a head. Taking this into consideration, it's probably wise to forgive his dismal run in the Display and expect him to return to form this afternoon.

Also warranting a look is Silver Day, who broke his maiden going a mile at Calder by eight lengths before disappointing in his next two starts, an allowance on dirt in which he was checked in the stretch and a try on turf in the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes.

Rounding out the field are Divine Ambition, a speedy debut winner from Turfway Park that breezed a bullet on January 5th; and O T B Bob, who is still a maiden after five starts.

Personally, I think that Dynamic Sky's class will come through in the end, enabling him to rally in the final furlong to secure a narrow victory. But I also really like the chances of longshots Lightning Stone and Divine Ambition, the latter colt especially, and won't be surprised if one or the other pulls off an upset.

California Derby

1 1/16th miles at Golden Gate Fields

Unlike the Pasco Stakes, this race has a heavy, heavy favorite in Zeewat, and it is very, very difficult to envision him losing.

For one thing, his victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes last time out was exceptional. After contending for the lead between rivals for the first three-quarters of a mile, he accelerated sharply in the final quarter mile, running his seventh-eighth in a sharp :12.23 and his final eighth in a downright spectacular :11.56 seconds. As a result, no one was able to challenge him in the stretch, and Zeewat cruised to a 3 1/4-length triumph.

For another thing, two of the six rivals he'll be facing today -- Condiment and My Best Bet -- were soundly beaten in the Gold Rush, and are unlikely to improve enough to catch Zeewat.

So who can challenge Zeewat for victory? Well, the answer may be no one, but if there is any horse that can make a race of it, it's probably Tree of Life. His last two efforts, although bad on the surface, were actually pretty decent runs -- he was beaten just 4 3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) and just three lengths in the Generous Stakes (gr. III). Furthermore, he won his only start on dirt, that being the 6-1/2 furlong Barretts Juvenile Stakes at Fairplex Park. In the end, he might be better sprinting, but he's flashed enough talent to suggest that victory is not out of the question.

Wildcat Moon, a consistent colt coming off of a two consecutive sprint victories; Avare, third in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita last month; and the filly Butterfly Soul, spectacular winner of the Phil D. Shephard Stakes on the dirt at Fairplex; round out the field.

My selection -- not surprisingly -- is Zeewat. The possibility exists that Wildcat Moon could force the favorite into too quick an early pace, thus setting the race up for a closer, but I think that Zeewat is probably good enough to hold off the late runners even if he does sprint hard early.

-Keelerman

Eblouissante breezes five-eighths; nearing next start

Eblouissante, the renowned half-sister to 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta, breezed five-eighths of a mile at Betfair Hollywood Park this morning and appears to be nearing her next start.

Trained by John Shirreffs, the daughter of Bernardini out of Vertigineux clocked the distance in 1:00.80 seconds, the sixth-fastest of thirty-three morning works at that distance.

Her next start is expected to come in either the $150,000 La Canada Stakes (gr. II) on January 20th or an allowance race around that time.

-Keelerman

Purple Egg, Falling Sky scratch from Pasco Stakes

Purple Egg and Falling Sky, among the favorites in the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, have been scratched from the race due to as-of-yet unknown reasons.

For Purple Egg, who was unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old, this marks the second time in two weeks that he has been scratched from his expected seasonal debut. On January 1st, he was scratched from the Gulfstream Park Derby after coming down with a mild illness.

Falling Sky, a 6-1 shot on the morning line, was entering the race off of a sharp victory in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream in December.

The scratch of Purple Egg leaves the coupled entry of Dynamic Sky and Sky Commander as the likely favorites.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 1-11-13

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He has been training steadily in Florida, most recently breezing five-eighths in 1:01.42 on Saturday. Next-race plans have not been announced, but at the rate he's going, don't be surprised if he turns up in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Just recently had his first work back since his runner-up effort in the Remsen, breezing a half-mile at Palm Meadows in a bullet :48.01. Like Dewey Square, his next-race plans are still undetermined.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On January 1st, he breezed for the first time since the Breeders' Cup, going an easy three-eighths in :39.22. The plans are to bring him back in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream on February 2nd.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Likely champion has been on the work tab since mid-December, most recently going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.04. First up on the agenda is the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.

5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's back in training following a mild illness, having breezed a half-mile twice since the end of last year. Hard to say where this well-bred colt will end up running, but don't be surprised to see him back sometime in February -- perhaps even in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).

6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't turned in a workout since the CashCall Futurity, but he should be back to serious training before too long. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd is scheduled to be his first race of the season.

7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He hasn't breezed in a couple of months, which had me worried there for a while, but Lukas told DRF.com that the colt will be ready to run in March, so for the moment, Titletown Five will stay here. His maiden victory on October 28th looks even better since Bradester -- who finished nine lengths behind Titletown Five -- has since one two straight, including a nice allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on New Year's Day.

8. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
In my opinion, this is the colt that could give Zito his first Derby victory since 1994. A beautifully bred son of Birdstone, Mountain Eagle broke his maiden on December 8th at Gulfstream Park by 4 1/2 impressive lengths, stopping the clock for a mile in 1:35.965 seconds. But perhaps the most impressive part of his victory was the final quarter mile of :24.41 seconds, this coming off the heels of a third quarter in :24.51. In my opinion, that is a sign of exceptional stamina.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm having trouble determining where to rank this colt, partly because his record is a bit inconsistent. He broke his maiden impressively first time out. Then he finished a poor fourth in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). Then he was a spectacular winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II). Then he was beaten eight lengths in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, he dug deep to win the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) with one of the highest Beyer speed figures earned by a two-year-old last year. We'll learn more about him in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd, his anticipated three-year-old debut.

10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Although on the surface his record doesn't look all that great, this colt -- in my opinion -- has more talent than most people give him credit for. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was very wide on boths turns while trying to close over a speed-favoring track, yet was still able to draw within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the eighth pole before understandably flattening out and finishing fifth, beaten five lengths. And of course, his 6 1/2-length triumph in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) was about as impressive a performance as you could hope for. He's not expected to run again until March, but when he returns, watch out.

11. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
This is another colt that I'm not quite sure what to do with. His two-year-old season was spectacular -- he won six of seven starts, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) -- but at the same time, his performances on the track leave me questioning his ability to traverse ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree doesn't provide a conclusive answer, as it seems to suggest that a mile and a quarter is within Uncaptured's reach without being overly confident in itself. Furthermore, he's being dealing with a foot bruise that will cause him to miss the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), originally scheduled to mark his three-year-old debut. Like Overanalyze, we'll surely learn more further down the road.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Well-regarded son of Curlin broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga before going to the sidelines with sore shins. He returned to the work tab in December and has since breezed five times, most recently going five-eighths in 1:00.04 on January 6th. His return is expected to come in an as-of-yet undetermined allowance race.

13. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Looked excellent finishing second by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but was subsequently beaten nine lengths when fifth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). His overall record is rather confusing -- in the morning, he trains like a superhorse, and he ran terrific in his debut, but often runs poorly without any excuse. However, it is worth noting that the Breeders' Cup marked his only start on dirt, so don't be surprised if he rounds back into form upon returning to that surface.

14. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Showed a great deal of talent when breaking his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and a great deal of grit finishing second by a neck to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit of a reach, but it's certainly not out of the question.

15. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Highly promising debut winner missed the Sham Stakes (gr. III) after being slightly off just prior to a key workout, but tests revealed no injuries, and he breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.40 on January 7th.

16. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Showed a new dimension in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), rating comfortably in second before rallying for a 1 1/2-length triumph. From a visual perspective, it was a terrific race -- he beat a couple of nice colts in Den's Legacy and Manando, with the rest fifteen lengths behind. However, the fractions tell a different story -- the final eighth of a mile was run in a very slow :13.66 seconds, despite a fairly moderate early pace. But regardless, this was a major step in the right direction for Goldencents.

17. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
While his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby may have been aided by a track-bias, Itsmyluckyday was nevertheless highly impressive in winning by 6 3/4 lengths. Mildly concerning was the way that he drifted out coming off the turn, but he seemed to straighten out better once in the stretch and was certainly pouring on speed late. That he closed his final eighth in :12.70, despite running the opening three-quarters in 1:09.11, was very good indeed.

18. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
After finishing a sharp second in his debut for trainer James Jerken, this well-bred colt was transferred to the barn of John Shirreffs and promptly broke his maiden in dominating fashion at Santa Anita on the final day of 2012. The race was a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for California-breds, and Omega Star was the heavy favorite. With Julien Leparoux aboard, Omega Star settled into seventh early on while racing on the fence, shifted to the outside turning for home, and finished up strongly (6.17-second final sixteenth) to win by three dominating lengths. By Candy Ride out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, he should be able to stretch out in distance just fine.

19. Maleeh (Indian Charlie - Gold Mover, by Gold Fever) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Although he didn't race as a two-year-old, this promising son of Indian Charlie made quite the debut on January 6th, rallying for victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Although the time of 1:10.84 seconds was impressive, it was the way Maleeh did it that impressed me. After getting off to a beautiful start and briefly attempting to challenge for the early lead, Maleeh was allowed to settle back in fourth place as the field moved down the backstretch. He made a nice, smooth run around the turn to reach contention entering the homestretch, but appeared beaten when the free-running leader Bellamy Storm scorched the fifth furlong in :11.51 seconds to maintain a two-length advantage. Nevertheless, Maleeh closed in strongly under a hand ride, edging Bellamy Storm in the final strides while running his own final eighth in about :11.74 seconds. He may not have the strongest of pedigrees, but there's no denying his talent.

20. Fury Kapcori (Tiznow - Gin Running, by Go for Gin) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
There were plenty of horses I could have included in this twentieth and final spot, but this colt gets the call thanks to his game second in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). I find his pedigree intriguing, being a son of Tiznow out of a Go for Gin mare. Go for Gin, of course, won the 1994 Kentucky Derby in front-running fashion and went on to be second in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Going further back, he is inbred 4S X 5D to In Reality, through that stallion's son Relaunch and his daughter Real Crafty Lady, who is the dam of Crafty Prospector.

****

Unfortunately, a number of promising colts have fallen off the Derby trail this week due to injury. Perhaps the most prominent was Hightail, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, who suffered a sesamoid injury in training and was retired.

Also dropping off the trail were Gulfport, winner of two straight races in impressive fashion, and Archwarrior, a well-regarded Saratoga maiden winner that was recently turned out for a break after failing to train up to par this winter.

-Keelerman