The final three days of the 2012 Saratoga meet have finally arrived, and while it is certainly a bittersweet occasion, the quality of the racing over these final few days is truly stunning, with multiple grade I races to be run, as well as the prestigious Hopeful Stakes (gr. II), which -- for reasons somewhat debatable -- is not a grade I this year.
Today's card features a pair of grade I races -- the $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I) and the $500,000 Forego Stakes (gr. I). Both have drawn deep and impressive fields with evenly-matched contenders, and while I personally am looking forward to the Forego perhaps even more than the Woodward, it is the Woodward that has had an almost unimaginable streak of good fortune in producing Eclipse award winners, with three of the last four Horses of the Year having won this prestigious prize. Thus, it is here that we shall begin our analysis of the day's major stakes.
The morning line favorite at 8-5 is Mucho Macho Man, who showed enough talent last year as a three-year-old to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and place third in both the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). But given his massive size and late birth date -- he stands 17.2 hands and is a June foal -- he was given some time off to mature following the Triple Crown, and he responded in terrific fashion. After winning a comeback allowance race by nearly six lengths, Mucho Macho Man proceeded to knock off Ron the Greek and Turbo Compressor -- both subsequent grade I winners -- in the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, then backed that up with a victory over Tackleberry and Jackson Bend in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II).
Following those efforts, he shipped to Churchill Downs to contest the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Sent off as the favorite, he loomed a contender around the far turn before weakening in the homestretch to finish third, beaten seven lengths by victorious Successful Dan -- a very, very good horse -- and six lengths by Fort Larned, who, of course, came back to take the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III) and the Whitney Handicap (gr. I). So although Mucho Macho Man's effort was indeed sub-par, it was certainly not a disgrace to be beaten by such exceptional runners.
And what Mucho Macho Man did in his next start was certainly not a disgrace either -- in fact, it was his next performance that stamped him as a colt of truly exceptional caliber. Sent off at nearly 6-1 in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park, Mucho Macho Man tracked a strong pace set by Trickmeister before drawing off impressively to win the race by a dominating 2 1/2 lengths, and under a hand ride to boot. His final time of 1:46.58 seconds earned him a massive Beyer speed figure of 108.
Even more impressive was the list of horses he beat. Trailing him home in the Suburban were horses like Hymn Book, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I); To Honor and Serve, winner of the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I); Stay Thirsty, winner of the Travers Stakes (gr. I); and Endorsement, winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III). So clearly, the Mucho Macho Man of 2012 is vastly superior to the unfinished version we saw in 2011, and anything near a repeat of his Suburban effort could get him a victory in today's race.
His rivals would have to show improvement in order to top him. To Honor and Serve has the credentials, for he is a grade I winner and has recorded triple-digit Beyer speed figures of six occasions. And he was beaten just 3 1/2 lengths in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). But it's hard to overlook the fact that he was beaten a sound 7 1/2 lengths by Mucho Macho Man in the Suburban, and without any obvious excuse. Even if he rebounds to his best form, he may need a slight regression from Mucho Macho Man in order to win this race. His main hope is that Mucho Macho Man, being a large, heavy colt, may not be able to turn in as strong a performance racing around a one-mile oval as he did traversing the spacious 1 1/2 circumference of Belmont Park.
Another colt looking to rebound from an awful Suburban effort is Stay Thirsty, who was beaten 13 1/2 lengths that day while finishing fifth. But unlike To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty may have had a legitimate excuse that day -- the heat. Stay Thirsty has shown in the past that he can't handle extreme temperatures, and the weather conditions on Suburban day were truly oppressive. If one tosses out his Suburban effort, and takes note of the fact that he is 3-for-4 here at Saratoga with victories in the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), one sees that Stay Thirsty is entering this race in good fashion and could be sitting on a much-improved effort.
Things get a little less clear beyond the three favorites. Trickmeister has won six of his nine starts, and defeated Stay Thirsty earlier this year in the Vanlandingham Stakes, but could only manage to finish third in the Suburban and fifth in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) last time out. He does possess a great deal of early speed, and is likely to control the early pace here today, but nine furlongs seems to be just a bit too far for him, especially against horses of this caliber.
In addition, he may find himself challenged for the early lead by Rule, a talented and speedy Todd Pletcher-trainee that finished third in this race last year. While it is true that the colt is coming off of a dismal last-place finish in the Whitney Handicap, that may have been because he was unable to get to the lead -- and whenever he doesn't get to the lead, he tends to falter badly. And since he has drawn the rail today, that pretty much forces him to bid hard for the early advantage, which may seriously affect Trickmeister's chances later this afternoon.
Then there is Cease. The well-bred colt has won just four races in his entire career. He has never won a stakes. And yet, he may be capable of winning this race simply because he is a freak here at Saratoga, where he is a perfect 3-for-3. Also note that all four of his victories were in nine-furlong dirt races, just like this one. Should Rule and Trickmeister set a blazing pace that softens up Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve, Cease could be the one to take advantage of the situation and rally for victory. Don't ignore the fact that his trainer, Albert Stall Jr., is winning at a 32% rate at this Saratoga meet.
The final horse to discuss is Gourmet Dinner, who won the rich Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) as a juvenile in 2010. Since then, he has found the winner's circle only once, taking the Majestic Light Stakes at Monmouth Park two starts back. While he is in arguably the best form of his career, he was beaten soundly in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (gr. III) last time out, and it's difficult to conceive him improving enough to win a race of this caliber, although rallying for a spot in the superfecta is certainly not out of the question if the pace is hot.
Races like these are typically tough to handicap, and this one is no exception. But since I have to make a pick, I'll side with Mucho Macho Man for the repeat. I certainly can't deny that To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty both appear to be sitting on big efforts, but I think the former may be better around one-turn at this stage of his career, and the latter doesn't seem to be as quick as Mucho Macho Man from a speed figure perspective. I do find Cease to be an intriguing contender, and feel confident that he could crack the exacta, but I'm not sure that even a career-best performance would be enough to defeat Mucho Macho Man if the latter runs back to his Suburban effort.
Moving onward, the Forego Stakes (gr. I) originally drew a field of eight, but the scratch of morning line favorite Shackleford earlier this morning has left a field of seven to contest the seven-furlong sprint. Jackson Bend won this race last year, and is back for a repeat, but was involved in a frightening training accident about two weeks ago that left his status for this race in doubt. Fortunately, he was uninjured and will get a chance to defend his title, but his recent form has not been stellar, and he would need to be at his very best to take down this prize.
Should Jackson Bend fail to bring his best form, Emcee and Pacific Ocean could pull off an upset. The first-mentioned colt has shown a lot of promise in six career starts, and most recently finished a good third in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) here at Saratoga off of a three-month layoff. He should be much sharper today while returning to his favorite distance, and a win would certainly surprise no one. Pacific Ocean parlayed an easy trip into victory in the James Marvin Stakes (gr. III) here at Saratoga on opening day, easily defeating Jackson Bend, but he will surely face a more difficult task today with fellow front-runner Emcee also in the race.
Jersey Town finished second in this race last year, but he has not won since 2010 and has been dealing with soundness issues for some time. Caixa Eletronica won the True North Handicap (gr. II) three starts back, but finished fifth in the James Marvin and would need a very fast pace to set up his late run. Hamazing Destiny won the Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III) three starts back, and most recently closed late to finish fourth in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I). Last of all, Isn't He Perfect had finished first or second in seven of his eight starts this year, but has been soundly beaten in every one of his graded stakes attempts and may be better with slightly more distance.
I'm going to pick Emcee for the win, as I have always believed this colt to be a very good one, but I have a lot of respect for Hamazing Destiny and feel he could be sitting on a big effort. Jackson Bend merits consideration on his record alone, but it would be one of the greatest feats in the history of the sport if he were to win this race just two weeks after his accident -- I'll be cheering him on, but he's facing a very difficult task.
The last race that warrants discussion is the $250,000 Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II) at 1 1/16th miles on the turf. Two scratches have reduced the field to six runners, with Data Link the heavy morning line favorite at 7-5. Winner of the Maker's 46 Mile Stakes (gr. I) earlier this year, Data Link is truly exceptional performer in races like this one, and enters off of a convincing victory in the Monmouth Stakes (gr. II) over multiple grade I winner Get Stormy. The lone concern is that there might not be enough early pace to set up his run today, but he should prove versatile enough to overcome any pace deficiencies and add another major victory to his record.
Other contenders are Dominus, winner of the 2011 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) who is trying turf for the first time after compiling an excellent record on dirt; Guys Reward, winner of the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) two starts back; and Prince Will I Am, unraced for nearly fifteen months but a grade I winner in 2010.
My fairly un-creative selection is Data Link, my feeling being that he is simply the best of the field over this distance and surface. But keep an eye on Prince Will I Am. This race is most likely too short for him, but a good effort today would help get him back on track for a race like the Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III), or even the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I).
-Keelerman
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