Thursday, January 27, 2011

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- January 26th, 2011

1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott Breezed a half-mile in :51 flat on January 24th at Payson Park. It will be close, but I do believe that he will be able to make the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His first workout since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should come any day now. Still wondering how far he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup.

3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Hollywood Park yesterday. I’m worried that his pedigree won’t carry him a mile and a quarter, but I shall wait until he runs on dirt before judging his stamina.

4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed an easy half-mile in :49 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center on the 20th. I still can’t get over the way that he held off both Astrology and Major Gain while racing between them in the stretch of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. It was brilliant.

5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His workouts have been steadily improving, although his most recent breeze, five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 at Palm Meadows, shows that he is not yet ready for a race. I expect to see him run again in early February.

6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
I am a bit confused. This colt has been breezing once every seven or eight days since December. On January 23rd, he breezed five furlongs in :59 flat at Gulfstream Park. Then he breezed a half-mile this morning in :49 flat at. . . Parx Racing? I simply cannot figure out what is going on.

7. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Got right back on the work tab, breezing a half-mile in :50 2/5 at Santa Anita Park just nine days after his brilliant Sham victory. It’s nice to see Steve Amsussen with a Santa Anita Derby contender.

8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Turned in a very sharp five-furlong drill on January 24th at Santa Anita, getting the distance in :59 2/5. It is apparent that he will be ready for the Robert B. Lewis in February.

9. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Worked a brilliant five furlongs this morning, blazing the distance in a sharp :58 4/5.

10. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
I am nearly as confused over this colt as I am over Mucho Macho Man. He has not recorded a workout since January 13th. I can’t see how this is going to get him ready for the Holy Bull in just four days.
Note: After writing this, it was announced that Boys at Tosconova will miss the Holy Bull Stakes. http://www.drf.com/news/boys-tosconova-miss-holy-bull

11. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds in February has been mentioned as this colt’s next start. He will likely be favored there, considering that in his last race he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
The Las Virgenes Stakes is now less than two weeks away. Accordingly, this fine filly breezed seven furlongs in a brilliant 1:23 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 24th. That workout is part of the reason why she has moved up to the 12th spot on this list.

13. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Everything I said about Uncle Mo goes for Stay Thirsty too. Although he wasn’t nearly as good as his stable mate last year, Stay Thirsty is a colt who should improve with distance.

14. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
Still hasn’t recorded a workout since his Hollywood Prevue score. I’m still wondering whether or not he can carry his speed, but I will admit that his pedigree says that he should be able to.

15. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I really like this colt’s pedigree. It is a pedigree which should carry this colt all distances.

16. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
This colt was off my radar—that is, until January 21st, when he destroyed a fine field of horses in an allowance optional claiming race which included Cool Blue Red Hot and Beamer. His ten-length victory did come over a sloppy track, so we still don't know how well he can run on dirt, but he looks like a legitimate Triple Crown Colt.

17. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Scheduled to run in the Holy Bull Stakes on Sunday. He worked five furlongs in :58 2/5 on January 20th.

18. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Was entered in an allowance optional claiming race on January 21st, but scratched due to a sloppy track. He will instead run in the Holy Bull Stakes on Sunday.

19. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
Scheduled to run in the Holy Bull against Mucho Macho Man, Gourmet Dinner, and Dialed In. He will likely set the pace. Time will tell if he can win against such a quality field, but if he does he will certainly be moving up my list.

20. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
There are two major questions remaining with this colt. He has shown that he is classy. He has shown he is game. But he still has to show that he can run successfully going a mile and a quarter on dirt.

OTHER NOTABLE HORSES


Top Notables:

Alternation - The Southwest Stakes could be his next start.
Awesome Patriot - Perhaps the Robert B. Lewis is next.
Beamer - Finished third behind Soldat and Cool Blue Red Hot in an allowance optional claiming race.
Bert B Don - The Fountain of Youth would be a major step up in class, but it seems like a good place for his next start.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Finished a distant second to Soldat in an allowance optional claiming race.
Crossbow - Can he carry he speed?
Decisive Moment - The Risen Star seems like a logical next start.
Elite Alex - He'd be 21st on my list if I included more the 20.
Justin Phillip - Extremely disappointing in the LeComte Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Strong victory in the Sweetest Chant Stakes shows that she is back and ready to advance toward the Kentucky Oaks.
Major Gain - Not sure where this colt will turn up next.
Monzon - The Whirlaway Stakes seems like the most logical goal.
Mountain Town - Just wondering where he will show up next.
Positive Response - El Camino Real Derby is next.
R Heat Lightning - The Forward Gal Stakes should be next.
Sway Away - Where will he start next?
The Factor - How far can he run?
Travelin Man - Impressive maiden winner.
Wine Police - Where will he start next?

Secondary Notables:

Anthony’s Cross - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Bandbox - Still wondering where his next start will be.
Buffum - Has not worked out since the Remsen. Is there something wrong with him?
Commander - Finished third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance race.
Grant Jack - Very disappointing in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
Manicero - Victory in Pasco Stakes was nice, but he showed serious stamina limitations.
Read the Contract - Disappointing in the Pasco Stakes.
Riveting Reason - Does not seem to be Triple Crown caliber.
Sweet Ducky - The Holy Bull may be his next start.
Uncle Sam - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Zayda - Very disappointing in the California Derby.

-Keelerman

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