Although it is rare for me to post a Triple Crown Countdown in the middle of the week, I feel I must due to the fact that there is a grade III stakes race for three-year-old fillies at Gulfstream Park tomorrow. The Old Hat Stakes has drawn a field of six, led by the undefeated Roxy Gap.
This will be a short post, for the Old Hat Stakes is the only race that I will be discussing, but I feel that the race is worthy of having its own post.
FEATURE RACE ---- The Old Hat Stakes (gr. III)
Six furlongs (Dirt) at Gulfstream Park
Here are the runners. . .
PP/Horse/Odds
1 Mis Vizcaya (15-1)
2 It’s Me Mom (4-1)
3 Final Mesa (7-2)
4 Pomeroy’s Pistol (10-1)
5 Quantum Miss (2-1)
6 Roxy Gap (9-5)
The 9-5 morning line favorite, as I mentioned above, is Roxy Gap. Undefeated in three starts, all of which came at Woodbine, the daughter of Indian Charlie out of Harts Gap broke her maiden going five furlongs on the all-weather track. She sat just off of a stiff early pace and rocketed past the leader past the three-eighths pole to win by an easy 6 ½ lengths, stopping the clock in :57 4/5.
Fifteen days later she came out for the 5-1/2-furlong Shady Well Stakes, where she wore down Tree Pose to score by 2 ½ lengths in 1:03.14, just off the track .44 off the track record. Sent off as the odds-on choice in her most recent start, a one-mile turf allowance race on August 21st, she set all of the pace before drawing off to win by nearly five lengths in 1:35 4/5. Various setbacks forced her to miss both the Natalma Stakes (gr. III) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), both of which she would have had an excellent chance of winning. As it turned out, the allowance race would be her final start of 2010.
Although the distance of the Old Hat suits Roxy Gap just fine, this race will be her first on a dirt track. Whether or not she can handle it is the key to handicapping the race. She will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. She is trained by M. Casse.
Quantum Miss, 2-1 on the morning line, could prove to be Roxy Gap’s biggest threat. She has won two of her three races thus far, including a brilliant 16 length victory in the six-furlong Blue Mountain Stakes on November 24th. Granted, that was at Penn National, and this is taking a big step up in class, but her final time in the Blue Mountain was 1:09 3/5. I do believe that she is ready to take on the best Gulfstream has to offer. She will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose. She is trained by Anthony Dutrow.
One filly that might be under bet is the third choice, Final Mesa. She broke her maiden by 7 ½ lengths in April and two consecutive stakes victories after that made her the favorite in the grade III Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar. However, she turned in a dismal performance and finished sixth of seven, beaten seven lengths. She has not raced since then. Obviously, the lengthy layoff is a concern, but she is in the same boat as Roxy Gap. Trained by Wesley Ward, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and will carry 120 pounds.
The fourth choice is It’s Me Mom, a Florida-bred who has yet to finish worse than third in six starts. Although it took her three attempts to break her maiden, she has since won an allowance race and the Presque Isle Debutante Stakes. However, in her only start on a dirt track, the Sandpiper Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on December 26th, she finished a distant second behind Devilish Lady. She may not be quite as good on dirt as she is on all-weather tracks.
The longshots are Pomeroys Pistol (10-1) and Mis Vizcaya (15-1). The former has but one win from three starts, that coming in a maiden special weight race. Her two starts since then have yielded a fifth in the Sorority Stakes and a third in an allowance race tired in the final eighth of a mile after nearly taking the lead. As for Mis Vizcaya, she has two wins from seven starts, neither of those victories coming in stakes races. None of her performances thus far have been good enough to win this race, which is why she is the longest shot in the field. Both Pomeroys Pistol and Mis Viscaya will carry 116 pounds.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya
I almost picked Roxy Gap to win, and I’m sure that she will run a fine race, but I believe that Quantum Miss is equally talented and has a conditioning advantage. It should be an interesting race.
Enjoy the opening of the Gulfstream meet!
-Keelerman
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