TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 5th, 2011 - Old Hat Stakes Recap

The Old Hat Stakes ended with great surprise today. No, it wasn't all that surprising to see Final Mesa come home first. It was the remainder of the order of finish which had everyone scratching their heads and wondering what happened.

First off, Quantum Miss and Roxy Gap---whom were expected to set the pace or at least be close to it---found themselves fourth and sixth, respectively, in the early going after bumping each other at the start. As it turned out, It's Me Mom raced to the front to set the early pace. She was followed by Final Mesa, with Pomeroy's Pistol and Quantum Miss racing together.

The first quarter mile was run in a brilliant :21 3/5. Quantum Miss was beginning to inch closer to the lead, as were Pomeroy's Pistol and Final Mesa. Following a half-mile in :44 flat, Final Mesa took the lead and dared the other runners to try and catch her. Quantum Miss, despite being in the perfect position to strike, failed to rally and began to drop back. Roxy Gap was making a mild run from last, but Final Mesa's biggest challenge would come from Pomeroy's Pistol, the longshot at 34-1 who was running a huge race. At the eighth pole, the two fillies were separated by just a half-length, but Final Mesa drew off late to score by a convincing 1 3/4 lengths. Pomeroy's Pistol finished a very game second, with Roxy Gap a distant third, beaten seven lengths. It's Me Mom finished fourth.

Amazingly, Quantum Miss failed to any rally whatsoever, and the favorite tired to finish fifth, beaten by slightly more than eleven lengths. She did avoid finishing last, however, by coming home thirteen lengths in front of Mis Vizcaya, who faded badly on the turn.

Here are the results. . .

1 Final Mesa
2 Pomeroy's Pistol
3 Roxy Gap
4 It's Me Mom
5 Quantum Miss
6 Miz Viscaya

. . . versus my selections.

1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya

It is apparent that Pomeroy's Pistol is much better than anybody thought she was. Final Mesa proved that she is still the wonderful runner that she was early last year, and that her dismal performance in the Sorrento Stakes was a fluke. As for Quantum Miss, I am left wondering why she performed so poorly. Although she did stumble at the break and bumped with Roxy Gap, I don't believe that it cost her the eleven lengths by which she was beaten. Roxy Gap received the worst end of the bumping incident when she ended up last, as she is not a deep closer, but I felt that she ran well to finish third.

Several more great races are scheduled for next Saturday. I will be back in a day or so with my thoughts on them.

-Keelerman