I hope you are ready. There are a couple of really fascinating stakes races for three-year-olds coming up this weekend. They are the Spectacular Bid Stakes, a six-furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park, and the grade III Santa Ysable Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth race at Santa Anita for fillies. Both races have drawn strong fields, with the Santa Ysable being this week’s feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III)
8.5 furlongs on dirt, for three-year-old fillies
Although the race only drew five runners, the Santa Ysable Stakes promises to have an impact on the remainder of the year. Last year’s running of the race also drew only five horses, but the runner-up that year was Evening Jewel, who turned into a multiple grade I winner by the end of the year.
So you might say that this field has the potential to turn out a star.
The favorite will likely be May Day Rose, a daughter of Rockport Harbor out of May Day Bluff. A front-running filly trained by Bob Baffert, she was very impressive when winning the Sharp Cat Stakes on November 7th by over four lengths. She ran an excellent race in the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes last time out, battling for the early lead before tiring very late in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten just over three lengths by the highly promising Turbulent Descent. She has recorded one workout since then, going a half-mile in :47 2/5. To be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, she will carry 118 pounds, the same as all of the other fillies. She drew gate four.
Plum Pretty, also trained by Bob Baffert, could be a contender too. Although she has only made one start, it was a very impressive one. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of Liszy, she broke slowly but raced up to take the lead and held it all the way to the wire, scoring by a head while completing the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. However, that was on October 27th over the Hollywood Park main track, and it is hard to say how she will perform of a traditional dirt surface. On the other hand, she has recorded three works over the Santa Anita main track, the last one being five furlongs in :59 3/5. She will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and has drawn gate five.
Zazu, a daughter of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, broke her maiden with a sharp tally in a 6-1/2 furlong race at the Oak Tree meet on October 15th. She then ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, finishing over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. However, in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, she failed to menace whatsoever, finishing a disappointing fifth. I can’t see her catching May Day Rose here, but she should be in with a chance in the stretch. Trained by John Sadler, she will be ridden by Joe Talamo and drew gate three
Scarlet Starlet, who drew gate two, will likely be one of the longshots. A daughter of Congrats out of Red Hot Star, she broke her maiden first asking in a wire-to-wire performance, scoring by a half-length at odds of nearly 30-1 in a six-furlong turf event. However, when tried in a one-mile main track stakes race in the Corte Madera Stakes, she ran sixth at odds of 11-1, beaten slightly more than three lengths by Cathy’s Crunches. I can’t see her winning this race based off of that performance. She will be ridden by Martin Pedroza and is trained by Doug O’Neill.
Bluegrass Chatter will likely be the other longshot. A daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of Chatter Chatter, it took her three tries to break her maiden, finally breaking through with a nose victory last time out going a mile and a sixteenth over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. The performance was actually very good, as she rallied from far back while chasing a slow pace to win. With enough pace in front of her tomorrow, she might be able to rally strongly enough to make her presence felt. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and drew the rail.
It’s a fun race to handicap, and this is what I come with. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty
4 Zazu
5 Scarlet Starlet
I do believe that May Day Rose is the best horse in the race and will get an ideal trip. However, there should be enough pace for Bluegrass Chatter to rally in the stretch. Plum Pretty looks like a promising filly, but she may be in over her head at this point in her career.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park could potentially have a major influence on the Triple Crown Trail. After all, last year’s field was won by A Little Warm, who finished second in the Louisiana Derby and won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Fourth that day was Discreetly Mine, who ended up in the Kentucky Derby where he ran poorly before becoming one of the nation’s top three-year-old sprinters.
This year’s edition, although it failed to draw a stakes winner, could end up having that same influence. The morning line favorite, Leave of Absence, looks like a potential monster. Although he could only manage a third place finish in his first start, he came through strongly in his second start, a six-furlong maiden special weight race on November 7th. Rated just off the pace by jockey Rajiv Maragh, he took the lead just past the sixteenth pole and was hand urged to 1 ¼ length victory. He stopped the clock in a brilliant 1:09 2/5. If he repeats that effort tomorrow, he should win with ease.
The other horse that is expected to run well is Gangstersontherun. Like Leave of Absence, he lost his first start, finishing second, but turned in a brilliant performance second time out. Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing, he broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. He never looked back en route to a nine length victory in :57 flat.
Cane Garden Bay, 8-1 on the morning line, is a colt that I will be watching. I picked him to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) on November 27th, but he ran a disappointing fifth that day. If the pace is rapid tomorrow, it could set up his late run very well.
Be sure to come back next week for my analysis of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), California Derby, and other great races. It’s the first really big weekend for three-year-olds of 2011 and it’s going to be an exciting two days!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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