This is one of those weekends where you just know that one or more of the races will have a major impact on the Triple Crown Trail. One of the reasons that this weekend could be influential is because on Saturday at Fair Grounds, the grade III LeComte Stakes is being run. The first in a series of three major prep races for the Kentucky Derby being held at this track, it is highly possible that one or more of these horses will end up in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in February and the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) in March. And everyone knows that the winner of the Louisiana Derby is, barring injury, guaranteed a start in the Kentucky Derby.
Although the field for this year's edition of the LeComte has turned up a bit light, it should still have some considerable influence on the remainder of the Louisiana prep race series. That is why the LeComte is this week's feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- The LeComte Stakes (gr. III)
Fair Grounds, 1 mile and 40 yards. For three-year-olds.
Run at the unusual distance of one mile and forty yards, the 2011 LeComte Stakes has only drawn five horses. Only one of them has ever started in a stakes race. But they are a promising group of sophomores and I highly anticipate the results.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Wilkinson - 7-2
2 Action Ready - 9-2
3 Mobeetie - 20-1
4 Justin Philip - 7-5
5 Pants On Fire - 9-5
The morning line favorite is Justin Philip, a son of First Samurai out of the Cryptoclearance mare Ava Knowsthecode. Purchased for $400,000 as a yearling, he finished second in his first start, a maiden race at Saratoga. He then won a similar event one month later at Belmont Park, coasting home three lengths in front under minimal urging. An allowance race at Churchill Downs was next. Sent off as the favorite in the 6-1/2 furlong event, he closed well but finished third, beaten just three quarters of a length. He was then entered in a one-mile allowance race, also at Churchill Downs, where he ran third behind Brethren and El Grayling. The performance was strong, making him the odds-on favorite in his most recent start, an allowance optional claiming race on January 1st at Fair Grounds. Sent straight to the lead, he rattled off fairly slow fractions en route to a 3 1/4 length victory. He should have every opportunity to win tomorrow, where he will be wearing blinkers for the first time. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
Pants On Fire is the second choice at 9-5. A son of Jump Start out of the Cape Town mare Cabo De Noche, he is the only colt to have previously run in a stakes race; finishing third in the Count Fleet Stakes behind Monzon and J J's Lucky Train. Trained by Kelly Breen, he broke his maiden third time out after running second and fourth in his first two attempts. In his third start, a one-mile race over a sloppy track at Delaware Park, he broke well and raced away to win by seven lengths in a wire-to-wire performance. He then was entered in a one mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct. Despite stumbling at the start, he was able to get to the lead and nearly won the race, being passed late in the race to lose by a neck. Then came the Count Fleet Stakes, where he set testing fractions before weakening to finish 4 1/4 lengths behind the winner. I like his chances here tomorrow, although I do wonder how he will fare down the long Fair Grounds homestretch. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Bravo.
Wilkinson is an interesting colt. A son of Lemon Drop Kid out of the Afternoon Deelites mare Tasha's Delight, his first race was extremely impressive. In a seven-furlong maiden race at Keeneland, he managed to rally from six lengths back at the eighth pole to finish second, missing only be a head. As if that wasn't enough, he didn't even get a clean trip!
His second race should have yielded a win, but it did not. In a mile and a sixteenth maiden race at Churchill Downs, he sat close to the pace before finishing second, beaten nearly three lengths. Perhaps he lost because it was his first start on dirt. Perhaps he lost because he was too close to the pace. Perhaps he just wasn't the best horse. But he finally broke through with a victory in his third start.
Sent off as the favorite in a one mile and forty yards maiden race at Fair Grounds, he patiently waited off the pace before closing well to win by a length. The performance was nothing extraordinary, but a fine effort nonetheless.
In his most recent start, Wilkinson ran third behind Justin Philip in an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds, missing second by only a nose. Overall, this colt has done nothing wrong, but simply doesn't appear to be good enough. Trained by Neil Howard, he will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to Action Ready, a son of More Than Ready out of the Wild Again mare You Again. Trained by William Calhoun, he finished fifth in his first start, a six-furlong maiden race at Remington Park. Stretched out to a mile and seventy yards at that same track, he proved victorious in a dramatic stretch duel, winning by a neck. He then ran second in a one mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race behind Dreaminofthewin, who just the other day ran second in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, which bodes well for Action Ready's chances tomorrow.
Tried for the first time on turf in his most recent race, Action Ready went straight to the lead and held off all challenges, winning by a hard-fought half-length going a mile over a yielding course. Although he certainly seems like a capable colt, I don't believe that he is quite good enough to win here. He will be ridden by Anna Narpravnik and will carry 118 pounds.
Finally, we come to the longshot, Mobeetie. A son of Sky Mesa out of the Danzig mare Ashley's Crown, he has only raced once, winning a maiden claiming race at Fair Grounds on January 1st. It was an excellent performance. Going six furlongs, he rated just off the pace despite being bumped at the start and drew off to a 2 1/4 length victory. Although this will be his first race at a route distance, he is eligible to improve second time out and could run much better than expected. He was purchased for only $4,000 as a yearling. Trained by Eric Heitzman, he will be ridden by J. Campbell and will carry 116 pounds.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Justin Philip
2 Pants On Fire
3 Wilkinson
4 Mobeetie
5 Action Ready
It's a fascinating race to handicap. I found it very hard to decide between between Pants On Fire and Justin Philip. The latter has an obvious "home court advantage", as he has raced over the Fair Grounds main track and has been training there since early December. On the other hand, Pants On Fire has shown himself to be a very fine colt with some good natural speed. In the end, I decided to go with Justin Philip, due to his experience over the track and the addition of blinkers.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
There isn't a whole lot of top three-year-old action going on this weekend, but there are several quality horses running in a variety of stakes races across the country.
One race which may yield a major impact is the Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. The ninth race on the card, the one-mile turf event for three-year-old fillies has drawn Kathmanblu, impressive winner of the Golden Rod Stakes in November at Churchill Downs. That race was on dirt, but Kathmanblu has also shown great talent on turf, winning the JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes and finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II). Nina Fever may prove to be her toughest competition. Although she is coming off of a poor performance in the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes, she has shown good speed in the past on a variety of surfaces and should be right in the mix here tomorrow. She is also coming off of a pair of good workouts.
Then there is the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds. The fillies’ equivalent of the LeComte, it has drawn a field of eight evenly-match fillies, led by Aide. She hasn't raced since finishing fourth in the Golden Rod Stakes behind Kathmanblu. It wasn't a fabulous performance, but prior to that race she had won a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Churchill Downs by nearly 19 3/4 lengths. If she runs that well tomorrow, she should win the Silverbulletday.
Of course, if Aide doesn't run back to that effort, then Bouquet Booth will be right there in the stretch to take over. She has raced four times, winning her last two and never finishing worse than third. In her most recent race, she won the $500,000 Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III) with a strong late run. I feel that she is just as good as Aide and is more than capable of winning this race.
This brings us to the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston, a seven-furlong event for three-year-old Texas-breds. The morning line favorite in the field of twelve is Aces N Kings, a fine gelding who won his first five races, including a trio of stakes races. However, he has not had good luck lately, finishing second in the Sunday Silence Stakes; failing to finish the Delte Downs Jackpot Stakes, and coming home third in the Springboard Mile. On the other hand, he is taking a step down in class and should have every opportunity to win the race.
On a side note, Ron the Greek, winner of the 2010 LeComte Stakes, is in the eighth race at Gulfstream Park. He is the morning line second choice in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race. It will be his first start since the Louisiana Derby last year. Be sure to watch!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment