This post was supposed to be up earlier today--my apologies for the delay in posting! -Keelerman
The biggest Triple Crown prep race of the year so far is scheduled to be run tomorrow. The $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes, a grade III one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, has drawn an impressive field of nine promising sophomores. Although the race did lose the expected favorite when it was announced that Boys at Tosconova would not run, there is still plenty of talent in the field and one or more will without a doubt make it to the Kentucky Derby. That's why the Holy Bull is this week's feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
Gulfstream Park, One Mile on dirt.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Gourmet Dinner 3-1
2 Major Gain 8-1
3 Printing Press 12-1
4 Black N Beauty 6-1
5 Ribo Bobo 15-1
6 Leave of Absence 10-1
7 Mucho Macho Man 5-2
8 Sweet Ducky 8-1
9 Dialed In 6-1
Now let me give you a sampling of what these horses have done in the past.
* Gourmet Dinner rallied at odds of 20-1 to upset the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III).
* Major Gain won the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III).
* Mucho Macho Man has twice run second behind To Honor and Serve, in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II).
* Sweet Ducky proved victorious in a pair of stakes race at Monmouth Park last fall.
* Ribo Bobo won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder.
As if that isn't enough, impressive maiden and allowance winners Dialed In and Black N Beauty have also been entered. What a field!
This race also holds special meaning to me, for it was the first race that I handicapped on this blog over a year ago.
Anyway, the favorite here is Mucho Macho Man. As I mentioned above, the son of Macho Uno finished second in both the Nashua and the Remsen. Although he has never won a stakes race, he has been improving with every race and his workouts have been brilliant. He has recorded three consecutive five furlong breezes in less than a minute at Gulfstream Park. I expect a sharp performance from this very large colt. Trained by Katherine Ritvo, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eibar Coa.
The second choice is Gourmet Dinner, a fine, stakes-proven colt who pulled off a stunning upset in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. He won his first three starts, all at Calder, before losing the In Reality Stakes to a 46-1 shot in Reprized Halo. That set him up for the Delta Jackpot, which he won with a sharp rally from sixth. A cross-country trip to Hollywood Park yielded a fourth-place finish, but that was actually pretty good considering that it was his first start over a synthetic track. Tomorrow's race will mark his 2011 debut. Trained by Steven Standbridge, the son of Trippi will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Sebastian Madrid.
Major Gain, a son of More Than Ready, could run well at a price. He has only won a single race during his four-start career, but it was a big one. After finishing second in a maiden special weight to future stakes winner Caleb's Posse, Major Gain turned the tables in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), rallying strongly in the stretch to defeat Rough Sailing and Caleb's Posse, among others.
Favored in the grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, he failed to rally whatsoever, finishing slightly more than ten lengths behind victorious J B's Thunder in fifth.
His final start of 2010 resulted in a better performance. Sent off as the second choice in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), he battled through the stretch with Santiva and Astrology, finishing third while beaten just a half-length. It was a game performance and I greatly anticipate watching him tomorrow. He is trained by Wayne Catalano and will be ridden by Javier Castellano. He will carry 120 pounds.
Black N Beauty and Dialed In, two lightly-raced colts, will be scrutinized closely tomorrow as they take on their stakes-winning counterparts. The latter has only made one start, but it was impressive. The son of Mineshaft rallied like a rocket in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, coming from 11 1/2 lengths back at the five-sixteenths pole to win by a half-length. Trained by Nick Zito, if he produces a similar rally tomorrow it should carry him to victory. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Black N Beauty also brings promising credentials into the Holy Bull. Although his first start yielded an unimpressive fourth-place finish, his second start got him noticed. Sent off as the third choice in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Belmont Park, he rallied gamely through the stretch to finish second to the highly-regarded Brethren, beaten just a half-length. The final time was a spectacular 1:08 4/5.
He finally left the maiden ranks in his third start, rallying from just off the pace to score by almost three lengths in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs. That set him up for an allowance race on January 7th at Gulfstream Park. The third choice, he broke slowly but was sent straight to the lead where he led all the way to the wire, proving best by 2 1/2 lengths over Printing Press. Trained by Dale Romans, the son of Devil His Due was purchased for just $2,500 as a yearling. Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He will likely set the pace.
Sweet Ducky, a son of Pulpit, has had a very good career thus far. He raced five times last year and won three races. In his first start, he won a five furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth Park by five lengths. A less-than-ideal trip in the 5-1/2 furlong Tyro Stakes saw him finish a well-beaten fourth. However, he reaffirmed his status as a stakes-caliber colt by decisively defeating Curlinello in both the Garden State Stakes and the Seton Hall University Stakes. He then took a step up in class.
Sent off as the second choice in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he stayed close to a fast pace before weakening to finish fourth, about ten lengths behind the winner. He has not raced since then. However, he has been firing off some excellent workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Bravo.
Leave of Absence, Printing Press, and Ribo Bobo complete the field. Leave of Absence has recorded a win, a second, and a third from three starts. The son of Harlan’s Holiday broke his maiden second time out going six furlongs at Aqueduct, stopping the clock in 1:09 2/5 under a hand ride. The colt then finished a fast-closing second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 8th. He seems like a colt that would benefit from stretching out to a longer distance, which he will be doing here. Trained by Richard Violette Jr., he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.
Printing Press, as I briefly mentioned above, finished second to Black N Beauty in an allowance race. Prior to that effort, he had won a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park; finished a dismal seventh in the grade III Sapling Stakes; and twice ran third in minor stakes races. He would need to show some serious improvement to contend here. On the other hand, the son of Tapit has at times shown a potent late kick and could be coming fast in the end if the pace is quick enough. Trained by Teresa Pompay, he will be ridden by Elvis Trujillo and will carry 116 pounds.
Finally, we come to Ribo Bobo, the longest shot in the field. The stakes-winning son of Louis Quatorze has made seven starts, with his biggest win coming in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder Race Course. He also ran second in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes to Manicero and second in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) to Astrology. However, his most recent start was far from impressive. In the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Calder, he ran a distant sixth behind Manicero. If he runs his best race, he could contend here. Trained by Manuel Azpurua, he will be ridden by Edgar Prado and will carry 120 pounds.
It’s without a doubt an amazing field of runners, but I know who I’m going to pick.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Dialed In
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Leave of Absence
5 Major Gain
6 Black N Beauty
7 Printing Press
8 Sweet Ducky
9 Ribo Bobo
As I said before, Mucho Macho Man has been turning in some incredible workouts and just keeps getting better. A versatile colt, I expect him to get a perfect trip and win with authority. Dialed In is a very nice colt, but may be better over a less speed-favoring track and at two-turns.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Two races prior to the Holy Bull, there is the grade II Forward Gal Stakes, a seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies. Like the Holy Bull, it has drawn a spectacular field of runners.
The morning line favorite in Dancinginherdreams, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden by five lengths on October 10th going six furlongs at Keeneland. This earned her the status as the even-money favorite in the one-mile Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, which she won by slightly more than five lengths. She seems to be a potential superstar; a filly who has an extremely bright future.
However, there are a couple of other potential superstars lined up to face her. R Heat Lightning is one of them. Winner of the grade I Spinaway Stakes, she finished a courageous second to Awesome Feather in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out. This will be her 2011 debut.
Another really nice filly in this race is Devilish Lady. She has won six of her ten starts, including her last four. As if that isn’t enough, she has won her last four starts by a combined 27 ½ lengths. As if that wasn’t enough, three of those four races were stakes races! She has shown a sharp turn of foot and the ability to simply crush her rivals with Rachel Alexandra-like pounces. I can’t wait to see how she does.
Another notable race is the fifth at Gulfstream on Saturday, a seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-old colts. The morning line favorite is Sovereign Default, who has won his only race. Way back on July 15th, he defeated the very nice colt Stay Thirsty in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. A setback apparently occurred after that, for he has not started since then.
Crossbow is a colt who could take advantage of Sovereign Default’s likely rustiness. He broke his maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct on January 2nd by two lengths. He has shown great speed in his two starts and may prove impossible to catch here.
In the fifth race at Gulfstream on Sunday, a one-mile maiden special weight race, the colt I am watching is Sinorice. He has lost all of his four starts so far but has never yet finished worse than third. In his most recent start, on January 8th going one-mile at Gulfstream, he rallied to finish a strong third despite being bumped hard at the start. With a clearer trip, he should run well tomorrow.
Then there is the fifth race at Fair Grounds on Sunday, an allowance optional claiming event at one-mile and seventy yards. It has drawn five horses, led by the 3-5 favorite Machen. The son of Distorted Humor broke his maiden going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, winning by 5 ½ lengths in 1:10 2/5. I can’t see him losing tomorrow.
Finally, there is the seventh race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race, the 9-5 morning line favorite is Commander, who finished a close third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race just two weeks ago.
On a side note, Sunshine Millions day is today! An exciting set of six races are to be run this afternoon at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. I will be posting the results as the races are run later this afternoon. Two of my favorite horses, the eight-year-olds Cost of Freedom and Presious Passion, will be running.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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