A new year began today. A new year full of potential and excitement, especially for horse racing. For the first time in three years, Zenyatta will not be racing, leaving an opening for a new mare to take the stage and prove her greatness. On the Triple Crown Trail, we have promising two-year-olds turned three-year-olds Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Boys at Tosconova, Comma to the Top, and many others. Horse of the Year is up for grabs.
As today is Saturday, there are several good races carded across the country, including several stakes races for the new three-year-olds. Although none of them are graded, they could potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail in major ways.
This week's feature race shall be the Count Fleet Stakes, a $65,000 stakes races run over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct at a distance of one mile and seventy yards. It is restricted to three-year-olds of both genders.
FEATURE RACE: THE COUNT FLEET STAKES
The Count Fleet Stakes drew a field of seven, but the scratch of Isn't He Perfect has left the field with only six runners. They are. . .
#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Pants On Fire (5-2)
2 J J's Lucky Train (7-2)
3 Tap Star (10-1)
4 Rush Now (3-1)
5 Arthur's Tale (4-1)
6 Isn't He Perfect (Scratched)
7 Monzon (10-1)
The morning line favorite is Pants On Fire, who drew the rail. A son of Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche, he lost two maiden special weight races before coming through with a dominating performance going a mile at Delaware Park. Sent off as the favorite in the maiden special weight event, he quickly took the lead and drew off easily to win by seven lengths.
His next—and most recent—start came in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards over the Aqueduct inner track. Sent off as the third choice, he took the lead from the outset despite stumbling at the start and led all the way into the stretch before grudgingly giving way to Rescind the Trade. He ended up second, beaten a neck; 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third place finisher. The performance was excellent; one which definitely earns him the status as favorite today. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The second choice is Rush Now, a son of Tiznow out of Dirty Rush. To be ridden by Jeremy Rose, he is to carry 122 pounds, six more than Pants On Fire. He is already a proven stakes winner, having won the Dover Stakes on October 9th in impressive fashion. Sent off as the third choice that day, he was sent straight to the lead and turned back the bid of Chipshot to score by just under four lengths. However, when tried against tougher company in the grade III, $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he finished a dismal seventh, beaten eighteen lengths after failing to get to the lead. The drop in class today should help his chances greatly, although he will still have to outduel Pants On Fire if he wants victory. He is trained by Anthony Dutrow.
This brings us to J J's Lucky Train, the third choice. Trained by William Anderson, the son of Silver Train out of the Thunder Gulch mare Delta Sensation broke his maiden in sharp fashion first time out. Sent off at nearly 8-1 in a maiden claiming event at Monmouth Park, he rated just off the pace before making a bold bid to win the 5-1/2 furlong event by 2 1/2 lengths.
This strong victory warranted a start in the grade III Sapling Stakes, also at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 37-1, he ended up sixth, beaten six lengths after failing to menace. This performance, lackluster as it was, raised his odds in his next start, a six-furlong starter allowance race at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 2-1, he made his odds seem like a bargain as he powered past the leader turning for home to draw off and win by nearly six lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10 3/5.
Amazingly, this impressive run was not enough to earn him the status of favorite in his most recent start, a one mile and seventy yards allowance race at Parx Racing. Sent off as the third choice, he went straight to the lead and held off all challengers en route to a 2 1/4 length victory. He seems to be the kind of colt who just keeps improving, and he looks like a legitimate contender here today, where he will carry 120 pounds and be ridden by Jose Ferrer.
Arthur's Tale is the fourth choice on the morning line, and he drew gate five. The son of Bernardini out of Owsley has made four starts thus far, all of them in maiden special weights at a variety of tracks. In the most recent of these races, a one-mile event on the inner track at Aqueduct, he secured his first victory by out gaming Dance City inside the eighth pole to win by two lengths despite being carried wide on the first turn. Trained by Thomas Albertrani, he is to carry 116 pounds this afternoon and be ridden by Eddie Castro.
Tap Star and Monzon are the longshots, both at 10-1. The former, a son of Tapit out of E T Phone Laura, has made five starts in maiden special weight company, winning the most recent in a very sharp performance. Set to carry 116 pounds, he will be ridden by Stewart Elliot and is trained by John Servis, the same jockey/trainer combination that brought Smarty Jones to victory in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes back in six years ago. Although this will be Tap Star's first start in a route race, I believe that he is ready for a monster performance.
As for Monzon, he broke his maiden back in August at Laurel Park going a mile, winning by nearly thirteen lengths. He followed up this effort by winning a one-mile turf allowance race by over five lengths. He has run in two stakes races since then, finishing fifth in the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Keeneland and third in the Gnome's Gold Stakes on the inner turf at Belmont Park. It is entirely possible that returning to dirt could be the key to a top performance. If so, he should run great today under 118 pounds. He is trained by Ignacio Correas IV and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
It is a difficult race to handicap, but here's what I came up with. . .
1 Monzon
2 Rush Now
3 Tap Star
4 Pants On Fire
5 Arthur's Tale
6 J J's Lucky Train
I know it is a bit of a longshot, but I do believe that there is enough pace in here to set up a late run by Monzon. Add this to the fact that he is returning to dirt, upon which he may be better than on turf, and I'm not afraid to pick him to win. Rush Now has proven to be a nice colt, but I'm concerned that he may duel himself into submission with Pants of Fire.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
The Tropical Park Derby, a nine-furlong turf grade III stakes race to be run at Calder Race Course on January 1st, drew a field of thirteen horses for the 2011 renewal. However, the scratches of Ribo Bobo, Beachcombing, and Reprized Halo have left the field with ten runners.
The morning line favorite is Swift Warrior, a son of First Samuri out of Afleet Summer. The colt made nine starts as a juvenile, winning two while placing in six more. He is stakes-placed, having finished second to Ribo Bobo in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes, and most recently won a mile and one-sixteenth allowance race over the Calder turf course by almost seven lengths. This performance earned him my respect, and I am picking him to win today.
The second choice, Racing Aptitude, is a promising stakes winner. He won the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last time out, rating just off the pace before wearing down the leaders in the stretch. A son of Aptitude, he should be able to get a perfect trip from gate five.
Another colt I really like is Private Prize, who broke his maiden last time out in a wire-to-wire effort. He may be able to control the pace today, which would greatly help his chances. However, this will be his first start on turf, which should make things very interesting.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Swift Warrior
2 Racing Aptitude
3 Private Prize
Also on today's Calder card is the Tropical Park Oaks, the fillies’ version of the Tropical Park Derby. I really don't have an opinion here, but I will be watching A Brilliant Idea, who is trained by Kelly Breen and will be ridden by J. Bravo. A daughter of Afleet Alex, I have always thought highly of her and her sixth-place finish in an allowance race last time out was better than it appeared.
Tomorrow's second race at Aqueduct also merits attention. The 1-2 morning line favorite is Crossbow, a son of Bernardini out of Forest Heiress who finished a decent third in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct in his only start. He set a blazing pace of :21 2/5 and :44 2/5 that day, so if he gets an easier pace tomorrow he should win with ease.
Finally, at Golden Gate Fields, there is the California Oaks, a mile and one-sixteenth event that is to be run later this afternoon. It drew a field of five, but one scratch has reduced the field to four. The heavy morning line favorite is Cathy's Crunches, who has won five of her seven starts and has never finished worse than third. Last time out, she won the Corte Madera Stakes by a half-length, just getting up in time to catch Game to Run and Lilacs and Lace, who finished in a dead-heat for second. I expect a similar performance from her today, although I do believe that Lilacs and Lace, who is back for another try, will make a race out of it.
That's all for this weekend! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment