The upcoming weekend of January 15th and 16th is by far the best weekend for horse racing so far this year. Not that there has been much racing so far in 2011, but you get the idea. There are a grand total of 12 stakes races for three-year-olds which I shall at least briefly mention, as well as a few optional claiming races.
It was difficult to select this week's feature race, as there is a lot to choose from, but I finally settled on the grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
FEATURE RACE ---- Sham Stakes (gr. III)
One and One Sixteenth Miles on the main track.
The Sham Stakes, named for the gallant colt that won the 1973 Santa Anita Derby, has drawn a field of five runners for the 2011 edition. True, the field is small, but I must admit that the field is nothing short of exceptional. Here are the entries. . .
1 Clubhouse Ride
2 Uncle Sam
3 Anthony's Cross
4 Tapizar
5 Pride of Silver
The favorite will likely be Tapizar. A son of Tapit out of Winning Call, he has made four starts this far. In his first start, he finished third in a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park. A second start at Monmouth in a similar race yielded poor results, for he stumbled and lost his rider.
However, his last two races have been rather good. In a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on November 4th, he finished fourth behind Anthony's Cross after chasing the pace while three wide. Then, in his most recent start, he turned in a remarkable performance. Sent off as the favorite in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on November 27th, he rated just off the pace before blowing away his numerous rivals by all of ten lengths. He drew gate four for tomorrow's race, where he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez. He will be carrying 118 pounds, the same as all of the other runners, and is trained by Steve Asmussen. Tapizar has quite a bit of natural speed and should be able to get a perfect position in the early going.
Uncle Sam may end up being the second choice. A beautiful gray or roan ridgling by Tapit out of On the Town, he has only made one start, in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita on December 27th. On that day, he pressed the pace before bursting clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:36 1/5. It was a very solid performance which should set him up perfectly for tomorrow's race. I must admit that I am very excited about this colt's future. Trained by Bob Baffert, he is to be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
Clubhouse Ride should be in the mix as well. The only horse in this race to have previously run in a stakes race, the son of Candy Ride out of Seeking Results has made ten starts in a long career. Although his two victories have come at 6 and 6-1/2 furlongs, his best performances have come in routes. The late-running colt rallied strongly to finish third in the in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), a performance which earned him my respect. He was even more impressive in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), where he rallied from last despite a rough trip to finish third at nearly 20-1. Should the pace be quick tomorrow, expect this colt to be flying in the final yards. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela and is trained by Craig Lewis.
Anthony's Cross should also demand a great deal of money in the betting pools. He has made four starts thus far, all of them coming in maiden special weight races. Although he has only hit the board twice, he has been closing strongly against some very good horses. In his second start, going seven furlongs at Saratoga, he rallied from ten lengths back at the eighth pole to finish third, beaten only four lengths. The two horses in front of him were Astrology and To Honor and Serve. A late-closing fourth in in 1 1/16 miles race over Keeneland's Polytrack was followed by a pace-pressing victory in the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which Tapizar ran fourth. Seeing that Anthony's Cross is the versatile type, capable of pressing the pace or closing from well off of it, I would have to think that he has a very good chance of getting a good trip tomorrow. The son of Indian Charlie out of Screening will be ridden by Joel Rosario and is trained by Eoin Harty.
This brings us to the final entrant, Pride of Silver. A gelded son of Badge of Silver out of Ruggles, he has made three starts so far, all of them in maiden special weight company. He has yet to finish worse than second.
He began his career with a runner-up performance at odds of 24.50-1, closing with a late run to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind Industry Leader going 6-1/2 furlongs at Oak Tree on October 31st. This effort made him the second choice in his next start, once again going 6-1/2 furlongs. Over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, he rallied mildly to finish second once again, 1 1/4 lengths behind Oakcrest Drive. Both performances were very promising, but there was something missing.
In his most recent start, the missing component was discovered—distance. Stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth, he rallied from fourth in a five horse field to score by an easy 1 1/2 lengths under very little urging. Although he may be the longshot in the tomorrow's event, I do believe that he is capable of running a great race. He will be ridden by Victor Espinoza and is trained by Robert Hess, Jr.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Tapizar
2 Uncle Sam
3 Anthony's Cross
4 Clubhouse Ride
5 Pride of Silver
This was a very tough race to handicap, for I would feel comfortable with picking any one of these runners to win and I truly hate to put any of them in the fifth spot. But one horse has to win, and another has to finish last, so I went with my gut choices. Tapizar may be one of the best three-year-olds in the country, and he'll get a chance to prove it tomorrow. Uncle Sam should improve in his second start, and Anthony's Cross is a very classy colt. I will definitely be watching this race.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I mentioned before, there are many astonishingly good races being run this weekend for three-year-olds. I will try to at least briefly mention as many as possible.
The first race is the one-mile Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs, which is being run late tonight. A field of eight has turned out, with the 7-5 morning line favorite being Decisive Moment. A son of With Distinction out of Lady Samira, the colt has won only one of his five starts, but finished a very strong second in the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot last time out after pressing a fast pace. It was by far his best performance to date, and if he does as well tonight then he should win this race.
The morning line second choice at 7-2 is Su Casa G Casa. A son of During out of Seda Fina, he has won three of his five starts, including two stakes races, and has yet to finish worse than second. His victory in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park was exceptional. Although he was beaten in his lone start beyond six furlongs, he should be in the mix if he can get away with a slow pace. That seems fairly possible considering that the only other runner who has shown any great interest in the lead is Decisive Moment.
Trubs, the third choice, also merits respect. He finished a decent fourth in the Springboard Mile Stakes last time out and should get an excellent trip from gate four.
None of the other runners appear to be good enough, although Expecting Cash might be in the mix. I will be going with Su Casa G Casa.
The seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs should also have an impact on the Triple Crown Trail. The morning line favorite is Manicero, who has won three of his four starts, including two stakes victories. In November, he won the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder Race Course by slightly more than eight widening lengths. However, in December, the front-running colt showed a new dimension by rating in fourth before slipping through on the rail to score by a length. Both performances were excellent and make him the deserving favorite for tomorrow's race.
However, my pick will be Read the Contract. The son of Read the Footnotes out of Devin's Abbey bled in his first start and didn't finish the race. However, his second start more than made up for his disappointing first one as he went wire-to-wire in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Aqueduct, winning by six lengths in 1:10 1/5. The runner-up that day, Dr. Disco, returned to win a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by four impressive lengths, missing the track record by a fifth of a second. The record was set by a five-year-old gelding named Mr. Bourbon Street, who was carrying two fewer pounds while in an all-out drive to win by a neck. Based on these facts, I believe that Read the Contract is ready to defeat Manicero despite being the 5-1 morning line fourth choice.
Then there is the My Trusty Cat Stakes, the fillies' version of the Jean Lafitte Stakes. The morning line favorite is Grandacious, winner of two of her four races. She most recently finished a strong third in the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III) after setting the pace. However, I believe that this race is going to be dominated by the second choice, Flash Mash. A daughter of Smarty Jones, she is undefeated in two starts, having won a six-furlong maiden special weight in 1:10 flat and a six-furlong allowance race by ten lengths in 1:10 4/5, leaving the nice filly Tristanme is her dust. I will be picking her to win.
The next race of note is the California Derby, a 1 1/16 miles race for three-year-olds at Golden Gate Fields. A respected early Kentucky Derby prep race, the morning line favorite is Positive Response. A son of Pomeroy, he won the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate by six impressive lengths. He should be right in the mix tomorrow. However, he drew gate eleven, which could potentially hurt his chances seeing that he is a front-runner.
Grand Manuever, second in the Gold Rush, is back for another try at Positive Response. He has drawn gate twelve.
One longshot that must be noted is Zayda, 20-1 on the morning line. He broke his maiden on January 1st at Golden Gate Fields with an incredible turn of foot, rocketing from twelve lengths behind with a half-mile remaining to score in a one-mile maiden special weight by 2 1/4 lengths. If he can produce a similar turn of foot tomorrow I would not be surprised to see him out rally everyone to the wire.
This brings us to the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Saturday. For three-year-old fillies, it drew a field of seven runners with the 2-1 morning line favorite being Zazu. Although she ran poorly in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, Zazu finished a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes on November 21st. If she runs back to that performance, she should win this race.
However, there is another filly who could prove too tough for Zazu. She is Plum Pretty, the second choice on the morning line. She broke her maiden first time out on October 27th at the Oak Tree meet, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by a head in a sharp 1:10 3/5. If she can handle the dirt as well as she handled the synthetics, I believe that she can beat Zazu.
The Gasparilla Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is also interesting. A seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies, it has drawn eight runners. Devilish Lady is the morning line favorite, based off of an impressive eight-length victory in the six-furlong Sandpiper Stakes over this track last month. I can't see her getting beat here; this race is made-to-order for the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint.
At Fair Grounds, the sixth race on Saturday merits attention. A six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds of either gender, the race has drawn a field of seven. The morning line favorite is Changing the Rules, who has made two starts so far. However, those two starts came in April and May of last year. It is apparent that the colt suffered a setback shortly after winning his first race. However, he showed enough talent in those two starts to be made the favorite tomorrow.
In his first race, a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, he was soundly defeated while finishing second. However, a little more than a month later he won a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by twelve widening lengths in a very sharp time. If he runs like that tomorrow, he should be able to win.
The second choice, Prime Cut, is also a fascinating colt. The son of Bernstein broke his maiden over this track last time out, rallying from just off the pace to win by 1 3/4 lengths. The final time, 1:12 2/5, was nothing astonishing, but he is obviously a talented colt who deserves recognition as a contender here.
Divine Music and Moonbie should also be watched. The former comes off of a good second to Herp in an allowance race at this track, while Moonbie won his only start by six lengths going five furlongs at Arlington.
Moving on, there is a pair of races at Oaklawn Park on Saturday that could potentially influence the Triple Crown Trail. The first is the seventh race, a one-mile allowance optional claiming event. The morning line favorite is Alternation, who comes off of a seven-length victory in a maiden special weight at Remington Park going one mile and seventy yards. It was a very good performance, and the ease at which he won was a remarkable. He deserves to be the favorite here.
However, the colt that I will be watching is Elite Alex. Trained by Tin Ritchey, who trained Afleet Alex to victories in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes of 2005, Elite Alex has only raced once. However, his one race was very good.
Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park, he rallied from just off the pace to win by three-quarters of a length. It was another 6 1/2 lengths back to the third place finisher. I do believe that Elite Alex is capable of great things.
The second race of note at Oaklawn is the eighth race, the Dixie Belle Stakes. A six-furlong event for three-year-old fillies, eight horses have entered, with All About Allie and Lady Giacamo the two favorites. The former began her career by winning three straight races: a maiden special weight, the Lady Razorback Futurity, and the E. L. Gaylord Memorial Stakes. Sent off at 11-1 in her most recent start, the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III), she ran a non-threatening fifth. However, she should have every chance to redeem herself in tomorrow's race.
Lady Giacamo is currently undefeated; a perfect 3-for-3. All of her starts have come at Lone Star Park. Her first victory came in a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. She then won a five-furlong trial race by over five lengths before winning the five-furlong TTA Sales Futurity as the odds-on favorite. This will be her first start in six months, but I think that she is ready.
Now, unfortunately, this post is getting very lengthy. I have covered all of the notable races that are to be run tonight and tomorrow, leaving only Sunday and Monday's races to discuss. As I would like to get this post up in a timely manner, I have decided to turn this post into two parts ---- I will post my thoughts on the remainder of the races sometime tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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