It happens every year. In the final couple months leading up to the Kentucky Derby, several horses that you have never heard of crawl out of the woodwork and earn their way into the Kentucky Derby.
Last year, there were Stately Victor and Line of David. They had done nothing to warrant a start in the Derby until the former upset the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) and the latter held off all his rivals to win the Arkansas Derby (gr. I).
No one saw it coming. Stately Victory was sent off at 40-1. Line of David was 17-1.
It doesn't matter how tough the top three-year-olds look in February -- at some point during March or April, a lesser-known sophomore steps up and defeats his more fancied counterparts to earn his way into the Derby. It's extremely difficult to predict which horses will do this and which will take their shot at a major prep race and fail. But it's always fun to try, and thus I have compiled a list of five horses that I feel could rise from nowhere and shock thousands into silence with an impressive victory in a prep race.
Here they are, in alphabetical order:
Congo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
This colt can’t seem to get a clean trip. In his last two starts, he has been hopelessly buried in a pocket turning for home. Both times he has pulled off some incredible maneuvering to escape the traps and win the race. This talented colt has been racing at Aqueduct and may be a legitimate Wood Memorial contender.
Fusa Code - Trained by Steve Asmussen
It’s rare to see a colt break his maiden in a stakes race, yet Fusa Code did just that when he rallied to an upset victory in the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park. The California invader was entered in the race off of a close third in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park. Expect him to be among the favorites in the Sunland Derby later this month.
Mr. Commons - Trained by John Shirreffs
This son of Artie Schiller showed great talent while sprinting on turf. He has proved just as good going long on dirt, winning a one-mile main track allowance race at Santa Anita by a head last time out. The final time was a sharp 1:34.84 and he closed his final quarter mile in about :24 seconds. The Santa Anita Derby could be in his future. Definitely a colt to watch.
Picko's Pride - Trained by McLean Robertson
Nothing went his way in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) last month, yet he managed to rally from twenty lengths off the pace to finish fourth, beaten just 3 ¾ lengths—despite having to wait for room in the stretch. If this colt returns for the Rebel Stakes, watch out. A cleaner trip and the added distance should be all he needs to run a winning race.
Sky Music - Trained by Todd Pletcher
This stakes-winning colt ran a strong second to Eminent Tale in the Undaunted Mettle Stakes at Aqueduct, closing rapidly inside the final eighth of a mile to be beaten just a length. I believe that he may be something special. Perhaps a graded stakes race is in the near future for this son of Read the Footnotes.
-Keelerman
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