It’s been an exciting morning so far for horse racing fans. As I am typing this, five of the seven Dubai World Cup races have been run, and the most exciting two are still yet to come. The action continues later this afternoon, with the Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes headlining a terrific set of Triple Crown prep races. Because it is already mid-morning, and the races aren’t all that far away, I shan’t make this post very length. Rather, I shall just give my quick thoughts and picks for the numerous fabulous races being run. Enjoy!
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
This looks like Mucho Macho Man’s race. He decisively won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) last time out, and the added distance of this race should only help him. He has good tactical speed and the ability to rate, so he should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. Machen should be sharper this time around than he was when fourth in the Risen Star, but I don’t believe that he’ll improve enough to upset Mucho Macho Man. Elite Alex, third in the Rebel Stakes, should be coming late under Calvin Borel but drew gate twelve. Wilkinson, winner of the LeComte, is bred to run forever but he doesn’t strike me as fast enough to succeed against this caliber at a mile and an eighth. The undefeated Left intrigues me, as do Nacho Business and Nehro.
Keelerman’s picks: Mucho Macho Man, Elite Alex, Machen, Nacho Business
J.R.’s picks: Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Majestic Harbor, Elite Alex
Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
It’s hard not to like Positive Response, who dominated in the local prep for this race, the John Battaglia. He won by seven easy lengths that day, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t duplicate that feat here. Decisive Moment is a logical contender based off of his consistently good form. He was second in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes last year, and although only fifth in the Risen Star (gr. II) last month, he came out of that race with a mild injury. If he runs his best race, he can win. Twinspired won the WEBN Stakes over this track in February, but could only manage a distant fourth in the John Battaglia after a poor trip. Taptowne and Son of Posse, second and third respectively in the John Battaglia, are back again but neither look good enough to win. I really like Animal Kingdom, who was beaten a head last time out going a mile on turf and may be better on synthetics.
Keelerman’s picks: Positive Response, Decisive Moment, Animal Kingdom, Taptowne
J.R.’s picks: Positive Response, Rescind the Trade, Thirtyfirststreet, Animal Kingdom
Hansel Stakes
Ghost is Clear is the morning line favorite, but he is coming off of a tenth place finish in the Southwest Stakes. Getaway Guy is the second choice, but he has been sprinting on turf. I am intrigued by Murjan, who was undefeated in three starts in South America before finishing last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I also really like Chasing Moonlight, who broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs by a head despite a wide trip. The third place finisher that day, Adirondack Express, recently broke his own maiden impressively. However, my pick is Philippe, who is coming off of a victory in a six furlong allowance race at Oaklawn. I have the suspicion that he is going to run the best race of his short career today.
Keelerman’s picks: Philippe, Chasing Moonlight, Getaway Guy, Ghost is Clear
J.R.’s picks: Chasing Moonlight, Ghost is Clear, Philippe, Murjan
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Astrology has found a tough spot to make his 2011 debut. This will be his first start since late November and he has drawn the far outside post position. I really like Sinai’s chances. He ran fifth in the San Vicente Stakes last time out, and both the winner and the third place finisher in that race have returned to win graded stakes races. I am intrigued by Beer Meister, who seems to have an incredible late run, and will be curious to see how Supreme Ruler performs.
Keelerman’s picks: Sinai, Astrology, Beer Meister, Nacho Saint
J.R.’s picks: Nacho Saint, Sinai, Astrology, Supreme Ruler
Other races to watch
The grade III Bourbonette Stakes at Turfway Park for three-year-old fillies has drawn a field of eleven led by Summer Soiree and Harlan’s Ruby. Summer Soiree won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park on January 30th by nearly ten lengths going a mile and a sixteenth and should be right in contention. Harlan’s Ruby won the Valdale Stakes, a local prep for the Bourbonette, last month in impressive fashion. Lilacs and Lace won the California Oaks at Golden Gate Fields on January 1st and should love the Turfway Park synthetic surface.
Another interesting race is the fourth at Fair Grounds on Saturday, a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. The 2-5 morning line favorite is the impressive maiden winner Bind, who will be making his second start. The colt won his debut by 9 ½ lengths and earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He should have no problem winning impressively. However, if he falters, expect Prime Cut to pick up the pieces.
The tenth race at Oaklawn on Saturday is the six furlong Prima Donna Stakes. Gran Lioness, third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) last time out, will likely be sent off as the favorite. Lady Giacamo, who has won four of her six starts, could potentially make things interesting.
The tenth race at Oaklawn on Sunday is also fascinating. The 8-5 morning line favorite is Arienza, a daughter of Horse of the Year Azeri. She has won her only start thus far and figures to extend her record to 2-for-2.
The Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) on the Louisiana Derby undercard has drawn a good field, but it did lose some luster when Kathmanblu didn’t enter. This leaved Inglorious, second to Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) as the favorite. Niji’s Grand Girl is the second choice, but finished third in the Florida Oaks on turf last time out. Grandacious could potentially end up in the mix if she gets loose on the lead, but I suspect that she isn’t good enough to win a race like this.
Finally, there is the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The mile and a sixteenth race has drawn several horses who failed to get into the Spiral Stakes. It’s a very evenly matched field, with the morning line favorite being Swift Warrior, who has been competing fairly well in turf stakes races at Gulfstream Park and Calder. The Ole Gen, winner of a recent allowance race at Oaklawn, is the co-second choice. Crimson China, who raced twice in Europe prior to coming to the United States, recently won a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream and should be closing in late.
That’s all for now! Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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