KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- March 30th, 2011

1. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher

Contrary to what I stated on my last Top Twenty, the Wood Memorial is not on April 2nd; it is on April 9th. So he's got some more time to prepare for the race. To be perfectly honest, I can't see him losing. He's just too good. And he's training well to boot.

2. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito

The Florida Derby is starting to look like the prep race of the year, with Dialed In, Soldat, To Honor and Serve, and Stay Thirsty all scheduled to run. Should there be quick pace, I fully expect Dialed In to come flying from the clouds to claim victory.

3. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Kwon Cho

Hasn't breezed since the San Felipe Stakes. I assume that he will workout once prior to the Santa Anita Derby, perhaps tomorrow morning.

4. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

Breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:08 4/5 at Palm Meadows on March 27th. He should be fit and ready for the Florida Derby. As I've mentioned before, I'd like to see him coming from off the pace like he did last year.

5. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott

We have reached the climax of the Triple Crown Trail. It's now or never for this colt. He must run his race in the Florida Derby. He cannot run like he did in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, tiring on the far turn. He has to stay on the finish.

6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo

Ran third in the Louisiana Derby, but lost a shoe at the start of the race. Although it was disappointing, I believe that it will set him up well for the Kentucky Derby.

7. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher

He'll be getting a serious class test on Sunday when he tries to defeat an incredible group of runners in the Florida Derby. I'm pretty sure that he's capable of holding his own against them, but I would like to see him do it without drifting in the stretch.

8. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert

The Arkansas Derby has been confirmed as his next start. Nehro and Elite Alex are expected to run against him, and probably Caleb's Posse, Archarcharch, and some of the Rebel also-rans. If he defeats them with the same stunning display of speed and power that he showed in the Rebel Stakes, he will likely earn himself the status of second choice -- or even favorite -- in the Kentucky Derby.

9. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey

Closed very well to finish fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Because he lacks sufficient graded earnings to make the Derby field, he is going to have to run in the Arkansas Derby in mid-April if he wants to make the Derby.

10. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert

Although last weekend it sounded as though the Wood Memorial would be his next race, now it sounds as though the Santa Anita Derby is still under consideration. He strikes me as more of a Belmont Stakes runner than a Kentucky Derby horse.

11. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy

Breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 at Plam Meadows on March 25th. The Blue Grass Stakes will be an interesting spot for him. All he has to do is stay on to the finish. As long as he's within a length or two of victory, I don't care if he wins or loses.

12. Pants On Fire – Trained by Kelly Breen

Very impressed by his surprising Louisiana Derby victory. Admittedly, he did get a fairly easy trip, but I like the way that he dug in and closed his final eighth in :12 3/5. It should set him up well for the Derby.

13. Brethren – Trained by Todd Pletcher

Breezed a slow half-mile in :51.90 at Palm Meadows on March 27th, his first breeze since the Tampa Bay Derby. The Arkansas Derby will be his final Kentucky Derby prep race.

14. Silver Medallion – Trained by Steve Asmussen

His next race has finally been decided upon: the Santa Anita Derby will be next. I honestly believe that he has an excellent chance at winning. Should he run a strong race -- first, second or third, it doesn't matter -- he'll maintain his spot on this list.

15. Anthony’s Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty

His workouts are getting very serious. He worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 at Hollywood Park on March 28th. If this colt does not run well in the Santa Anita Derby, it won't be from lack of training!

16. Nehro – Trained by Steven Asmussen

Strong second in the Louisiana Derby at 36-1 was very, very impressive. He lacked running room passing the quarter pole, but still closed to be beaten by just a neck. It’s hard to say for sure, but I think the rail was bad at Fair Grounds on Louisiana Derby day. If this is the case, than Nehro – who raced along the rail throughout the entire race – ran a tremendous race.

17. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires

Seems to have the ability to grind his way along in an all-out drive for a great deal of time. This could potentially be a useful trait in the Kentucky Derby, if he can employ it better than Dublin did last year. But he'll have to run first or second in the Arkansas Derby to remain a serious contender.

18. Animal Kingdom – Trained by H. Motion

Ran a marvelous race to win the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes by an impressive 2 ¾ lengths. But he’s going to have to show a bit more – he closed his final eighth in a slow :13.36.

19. Decisive Moment – Trained by Juan Arias

He may have run a better race than Animal Kingdom in the Spiral, for he pressed a very quick pace while four wide and held on well to finish second. But like Animal Kingdom, he’s going to have to run better if he is to be competitive in the Triple Crown races.

20. Crimson China – Trained by H. Motion

Made quite the late run in the Rushaway Stakes, closing four lengths inside the eighth pole to finish second. I’m hoping that he runs in the Blue Grass Stakes in order to secure grading earnings.

OTHER NOTABLE HORSES

Note: I have removed Data Link from this list because his connections have announced that the Kentucky Derby is not on his agenda. I have also removed Sweet Ducky, he ran poorly in the UAE Derby on Saturday and probably won't return for any of the Triple Crown races.

Just Out of the Top
Alternation - Arkansas Derby isn't out of the question.
Arch Traveler - The Florida Derby has been confirmed as this colt's next start.
Astrology - Second place finish in the Sunland Derby was a fairly good performance.
Congo - Hasn't done anything in a while.
Flashpoint - Swale Stakes or Florida Derby will be next.
Indian Winter - Santa Anita Derby is likely next.
Kathmanblu - The Ashland Stakes at Keeneland is her current goal.
Mr Commons - The Santa Anita Derby is next.
Sway Away - Wondering where he'll run next.
Toby's Corner - The Wood Memorial against Uncle Mo may be next.
Twice the Appeal - Shocking upset in the Sunland Derby launches him into the picture.

Need to Show a Little More:

Adirondack Summer - I have the suspicion that he won't be racing again for a while.
Bandbox - Private Terms victory was accomplished with great ease.
Beamer - Fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn't what I was hoping for.
Bench Points – I assume that the Santa Anita Derby is next.
Bowman's Causeway – Finished third in an allowance race at Gulfstream despite a perfect pace scenario.
Caleb's Posse – Very impressed by his strong second in the Rebel.
Cal Nation – Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Crimson Knight - Fought hard in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Dance City – Victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream over Cal Nation and Bowman’s Causeway was quite impressive.
Eminent Tale - Quite impressed by his Sweet Envoy Stakes victory.
J J's Lucky Train – Wondering where he will run next.
J W Blue - Wondering where he will race next.
Norman Asbjornson – The Wood Memorial will likely be next.
Positive Response - Hugely disappointing in the Spiral.
Queen'splatekitten - Runner-up finish in a paceless Palm Beach Stakes was by no means disappointing.
R Heat Lightning – Gulfstream Oaks is next.
Swift Warrior - Very impressive in the Rushaway Stakes.
Watch Me Go - Tampa Bay Derby victory was surprising.
Wilkinson - Drew gate ten in the Louisiana Derby.

Need to Show a Lot More:
Adirondack Express - Broke his maiden on March 12th at Tampa Bay Downs.
Awesome Patriot – Disappointed by his poor San Felipe showing.
Beer Meister – Late-running fifth in the Sunland Derby wasn't terrible, but he needs to show more.
Casper's Touch – Wondering where he will race next.
Comma to the Top - Santa Anita Derby is next.
Fusa Code - Seventh place finish in the Sunland Derby was very disappointing.
J P's Gusto – Seventh place finish in the Rebel Stakes was extremely disappointing.
Machen - Fifth place finish in the Louisiana Derby was disappointing.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Left – Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby.
Nacho Business – Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby.
Nacho Saint – Disappointing in the Sunland Derby.
Picko's Pride – Very disappointed by his eighth place finish in the Rebel.
Runflatout - Last place finish in the San Felipe was terribly disappointing.
San Pablo - Broke his maiden on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth.
Shackleford – Entered in the Florida Derby.
The Ole Gen – Third place finish in the Rushaway Stakes wasn't quite what I was hoping for.

-Keelerman