This weekend’s racing action consists mainly of some spectacular races for older horse – the Santa Anita Handicap, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile, and such. This weekend also marks the return of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer. But there’s also plenty of fine racing action scheduled for three-year-olds, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. II), the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), and an allowance race on Sunday in which Dialed In shall run. This week’s feature race was difficult to select, but I finally settled on the Santa Anita Oaks.
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)Santa Anita Park/One and One Sixteenth Miles/$250,000 Purse
The Santa Anita Oaks, the second grade I race for three-year-old fillies of the Santa Anita meet, has mainly been billed as a rematch between Zazu and Turbulent Descent, who ran 1-2 in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) last month. They are expected to be the heavy favorites in the compact field of five, and no one will be surprised if they run 1-2 yet again.
Here are the entries:
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 May Day Rose 6-1
2 Zazu 2-1
3 Turbulent Descent 1-1
4 Kilograeme 10-1
5 A Z Warrior 4-1
All shall carry 122 pounds.
We shall begin our analysis with May Day Rose, who has drawn the rail. The daughter of Rockport Harbor won the Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III) early in the meet, but proved no match for Zazu and Turbulent Descent in the Las Virgenes, finishing a distant fourth. Trained by Bob Baffert, the front-running filly might just attempt to steal the race early by setting a slow pace under Martin Garcia. She worked a brilliant five furlongs on February 24th, going the distance in :57 4/5. Expect her to be right there in the stretch.
This brings us to Zazu. Going into last month’s Las Virgenes, she had won only one race from five starts, that being a maiden special weight. Still, she has finished second in a pair of stakes races and was expected to be running at the finish. She did indeed come running, turning back heavily favored Turbulent Descent in deep stretch to win the race by 1 ¼ lengths. Trained by John Sadler, it will be interesting to see if Zazu can beat Turbulent Descent again. Joel Rosario has the mount.
Then of course there is Turbulent Descent. The filly looked like a future superstar last fall, sweeping to easy victories in a maiden special weight, the Moccasin Stakes, and the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes. In both the Moccasin and the Starlet, she decisively defeated Zazu. But the tables were turned in the Las Virgenes, as Turbulent Descent was unable to wear down Zazu in deep stretch. Of course, Zazu got a better trip that day and Turbulent Descent probably wasn’t as fit as she could be. I believe that the chances are good that Turbulent Descent will redeem herself this afternoon. Trained by Mike Puype, she has been training sharply and will be ridden by David Flores.
Kilograeme is the next horse. Trained by Mike Mitchell, she is undefeated in two starts but is taking a big step up in class. She broke her maiden in January going seven furlongs at Santa Anita, running the distance in 1:21.75. She then narrowly won an allowance race at Santa Anita one month later, charging late to win the one-mile event by a half-length in 1:35.67. She will have to show a lot in order to defeat this group, but she mustn’t be ignored. Garrett Gomez has the mount.
Finally, we come to A Z Warrior. Trained by Bob Baffert, she was among the favorites for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after winning the Frizette Stakes in a remarkable performance. However, she ran last in the Breeders’ Cup and has not raced since then. She will probably need this race in order to return to peak form, so I don’t expect her to win this afternoon. But she has been training sharply and I would not be surprised if she is in contention coming down the stretch. She will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and has been training very well for this race.
My selections are thus:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Zazu
3 Kilograeme
4 A Z Warrior
5 May Day Rose
There is a reason why I took to calling Turbulent Descent the “Mini-Zenyatta” when discussing the Las Virgenes Stakes last month. I believe that she is incredibly talented and merely needed the race last time out. I expect her to return to her dominating ways this afternoon. As for Kilograeme, I expect her to get a perfect stalking trip in third behind A Z Warrior and May Day Rose early on. I would not be surprised to see her take the lead in the stretch. She looks like a filly with a bright future.
But J.R. has other ideas. Never one to play a favorite (unless he is completely positive that the favorite is a superstar) he has settled on Zazu for a narrow victory. He feels that she beat Turbulent Descent fair-and-square last time out and will do so again here.
His selections are:
1 Zazu
2 Turbulent Descent
3 May Day Rose
4 A Z Warrior
5 Kilograeme
He does acknowledge, however, that Turbulent Descent is a fine filly who is definitely the one to beat.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct is the other major Triple Crown prep race of the weekend. The mile and a sixteenth event has drawn the promising Stay Thirsty, who finished second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful Stakes last year and is bred to run forever. He has not raced since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, however, and may not be fully primed for this race.
Can he be beat? It won’t be easy. He has been training quite well and has top rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. But there are several horses that should be able to make a race of it.
One of those is Toby’s Corner. He has won three races in a row, including the Whirlaway Stakes over this track last time out. The late-running son of Bellamy Road should be flying at the finish, but would benefit from a sloppy track, in my opinion.
But perhaps the most intriguing horse in the race is Nacho Saint. The colt lost his first two races in maiden special weight company, but was then tried in the grade II Sanford Stakes. Despite the fact that he was a maiden, he ran a strong second, beaten just 1 ½ lengths. He then ran fifth in the Sapling Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park and was given a break. Months later, he returned to win a maiden special weight going a mile and Aqueduct in January. Expect him to have every chance in the stretch.
Interestingly, J.R. selected none of these as his pick. He feels that this race has upset written all over it, and therefore spent considerable time trying to locate a longshot.
“If the track is sloppy, it’s Toby’s Corner by the edge of infinity.” he boldly stated. “But I have picked Starship Caesar.”
Starship Caesar won a one-mile starter allowance race at Aqueduct last time out. True, he did close well inside the final eighth of a mile, but I don’t believe that he is in the same league as Stay Thirsty and Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I went with Stay Thirsty. I hate to play the chalk, but he’ll be tough to beat if the track is fast. If the track turns up sloppy, I would pick Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I will be watching the track conditions closely.
The Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes on the Gotham undercard has also drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Rift, a stakes-placed colt that has never finished worse than third in five starts. He is coming off of a victory in an allowance optional claiming race and should run a good race. Vengeful Wildcat, making his first start since running second in the Sapling Stakes last year, could also prove victorious if he is fit enough to win in his first start back.
The Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds marks the return of Willcox Inn. The colt finished a good third in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) last fall before finishing third once again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Once again, the main question is whether or not he is fit enough to win off of a lengthy layoff. Stiff competition will likely come from Aces N Kings, a Texas-bred colt who has numerous stakes victories on his resume.
The second race at Santa Anita on Saturday, a maiden special weight, should also prove interesting with Chico d’Oro, who finished a strong second to Albergatti in a maiden special weight on February 12th. I can’t see him losing here this afternoon.
The fifth race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park also merits consideration. A maiden special weight event, the morning line second choice is Break Up the Game, a colt that I’ve had my eye on for a while now. He most recently finished a close fourth in a maiden special weight on January 15th, just a head behind Arch Traveler, who recently won a nine furlong allowance race over the highly promising Nacho Business. We’ll see if he can break his maiden today.
That’s all for now! I shall be posting the results of these races and more as they are run. So go out and enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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