Saturday, March 19, 2011

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 18th, 2011

Let’s see – what happened last weekend along the Triple Crown Trail? I can’t seem to remember. . . it’s not like anything notable happened. . .

All right, I’m just joking. Last weekend was one of the most memorable weekends of the year, with two-year-old champion Uncle Mo winning his 2011 debut, Brethren getting upset by a pair of huge longshots, and Premier Pegasus turning in perhaps the most devastating performance seen on the Triple Crown Trail this year.

We’ll begin our discussion of last week’s racing action by recapping the Timely Writer Stakes, where Uncle Mo dominated in his three-year-old debut.

FEATURE RACE RECAP: The Timely Writer Stakes

Only four rivals turned out to face Uncle Mo in the one-mile event at Gulfstream Park. None were expected to defeat the champion, and none did. Uncle Mo won the race is astonishingly easy fashion, even by his own lofty standards.

Rocking Out, the third choice in the field, broke quickest of all. Uncle Mo came out of the gate quickly but was bumped hard by Gallant Dreams. Despite this, he was sent straight to the lead by jockey John Velazquez and led the field by a length after a quarter mile in :25.53.

Yes, :25.53. After seeing this fraction, I knew that there was no way Uncle Mo would lose.

Uncle Mo continued this merry chase all the way around the race track, even allowing second choice Rattlesnake Bridge to draw even on the far turn. But he had maintained his slow pace with fractions of :49.58 and 1:13.69 and drew off under no urging whatsoever in the homestretch. Rattlesnake Bridge courageously gave chase, but proved no match. Uncle Mo hit the wire 3 ¾ lengths in front, closing his final quarter mile in a sharp :22.87 to complete the race in 1:36.56. It was a magnificent return for the champion and solidified his position as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

Rattlesnake Bridge finished second, nearly six lengths clear of third place finisher Gallant Dreams. Rocking Out, who trailed the field for a great deal of the race despite his sharp break, finished fourth while defeating only Schoolyard Cat.

So the complete results were. . .

1 Uncle Mo
2 Rattlesnake Bridge
3 Gallant Dreams
4 Rocking Out
5 Schoolyard Cat

My selections were. . .

1 Uncle Mo
2 Rattlesnake Bridge
3 Rocking Out
4 Gallant Dreams
5 Schoolyard Cat

And J.R.’s selections were. . .

1 Rattlesnake Bridge
2 Uncle Mo
3 Rocking Out
4 Gallant Dreams
5 Schoolyard Cat

The results of this race helped me to extend my lead in our Handicapping Contest to its current decisive size. It also firmly entrenched Uncle Mo at the top of my Top Twenty list for the moment.

OTHER RACE RESULTS

San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)

Well!

I didn’t see that coming!

True, I picked the exacta in the San Felipe Stakes. That I did see coming. But I did not predict what an incredible performance that Premier Pegasus would turn in.

Making his two-turn debut, Premier Pegasus was sent off as the fourth choice at 7.30-1 and absolutely blew his rivals away. He sat well off of the pace set by Runflatout and Albergatti in the early going before launching a bid around the far turn. All of a sudden he was a length in front, then two then three then four. He hit the wire 7 ¾ lengths clear of Jaycito, who rallied mildly for second in his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Bench Points finished third, followed by Comma to the Top. The latter had sat third in the early going and took the lead entering the stretch, but drifted out badly while tiring to finish fourth. The final time was 1:41.23.

The complete results were. . .

1 Premier Pegasus
2 Jaycito
3 Bench Points
4 Comma to the Top
5 Quail Hill
6 Awesome Patriot
7 Surrey Star
8 Jakesam
9 Albergatti
10 Runflatout

My picks were:

1 Premier Pegasus
2 Jaycito
3 Runflatout
4 Comma to the Top
5 Bench Points
6 Jakesam
7 Awesome Patriot
8 Quail Hill
9 Surrey Star
10 Albergatti

And J.R.’s picks were:

1 Comma to the Top
2 Runflatout
3 Bench Points
4 Jakesam
5 Premier Pegasus
6 Jaycito
7 Quail Hill
8 Awesome Patriot
9 Albergatti
10 Surrey Star

I think that it’s safe to say that I out-picked him. . . :)

Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II)

Did you think that Brethren would lose the Tampa Bay Derby? I did not. J.R. did not. Of course, it wasn’t out of the question that he could lose. Free Entry, Beamer, and Striding Ahead all merited attention as potential upset threats. But the majority of people felt that Brethen was capable of winning the race with ease and extending his undefeated streak to four straight wins.

However, Brethren failed to win. And so did Free Entry, Beamer, and Striding Ahead.

Instead, Watch Me Go at odds of 43.70-1 rallied in the stretch to win by a nose over a 86.40-1 shot Crimson Knight. Congratulations to anyone who hit that exacta . . . it paid $2,194.20 per $2.

The race unfolded in a way which I did not expect. Brethren, who seems to do his best running when he has a target to run at, found himself on the lead before a half-mile had been run. He was passed in the stretch by Watch Me Go and Crimson Knight despite setting a slow pace, fought until the eighth pole, and then gave way to finish third. It was a shocking upset, but I’m not too concerned. I believe that Brethren will improve greatly when allowed to sit off of a quick pace, which was impossible here.

The complete results were. . .

1 Watch Me Go
2 Crimson Knight
3 Brethren
4 Beamer
5 Economic Summit
6 Free Entry
7 Too Experience
8 Striding Ahead
9 Moonhanger

My picks were:

1 Brethren
2 Striding Ahead
3 Beamer
4 Free Entry

And J.R.’s picks were:

1 Brethren
2 Economic Summit
3 Free Entry
4 Watch Me Go

We both did rather poorly, but J.R. did better. At least he had the winner in his top four.

March 12th

• Eminent Tale won another New York-bred stakes race at Aqueduct, racing away to a dominating victory in the Sweet Envoy Stakes. Sent off as the odds-on favorite in the one-mile and seventy yards event, he won by nearly six lengths in 1:43.92. Longshot Uncle Smokey finished second.

• The Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds yielded a pretty surprising upset. The even-money favorite was Willcox Inn, who ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) last year. Making his first start since then, he made up considerable ground in the stretch of the 7-1/2 furlong event, but fell a length short of catching 9-1 shot Great Mills, who wired the field in 1:34.09. Aces N Kings ran fifth.

• Joes Blazing Aaron pulled off a masterful upset in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes, won last year by Kentucky Derby third place finisher Paddy O’Prado. Sent straight to the lead by jockey Orlando Bocachica, the chestnut gelding set a slow pace and never looked back en route to a 1 ¾ length triumph, completing the nine furlongs in 1:47.85. Favored Queen’splatekitten closed mildly, but there was no way he could catch a horse who closed his final eighth in :11.30. Despite this, he closed two lengths on the winner in the final eighth, meaning he ran his own final eighth in about :10.90 to finish second.

• Keep an eye on Joyful Victory! Sent off as the 3-2 favorite in Oaklawn’s grade III Honeybee Stakes, she rallied from off the pace to win the race by nearly nine lengths in an incredible performance. She is definitely one to watch for the Kentucky Oaks. The final time in the mile and a sixteenth event was 1:44.83. Holy Heavens ran second, followed by Dixie City. Second choice Rigoletta ran sixth and was retired shortly thereafter with a mild tendon injury.

• Adirondack Express finally broke his maiden! Favored in a one-mile and forty yards maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs, the colt showed an impressive late kick in the final quarter mile, charging late to win by a length under Ramon Dominguez. The final time was 1:41.34. Self, a first-time starter, finished second after opening up a clear lead in the stretch.

March 14th

• Reprized Halo pulled off a remarkable victory in the OBS Championship (Colts and Geldings Division) Stakes at Ocala Training Center. In a race on which there was no wagering, the colt was sent straight to the lead, set fractions of :25.20 and :51.80, and held off everyone in the stretch to win the mile and a sixteenth event by three-quarters of a length in 1:47.40. Extended Memory finished second, while Strike Oil ran third.

• In the fillies version of the OBS Championship Stakes, Delightful Mary proved that she merits watching for the Kentucky Oaks when she won the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:45.80. She sat just off of the early pace before wearing down the leaders in the final forty yards. Be My Candy finished second, followed by Snow Trial and Silent Moon.

Be sure to check out my blog tomorrow afternoon, as I will be posting the results of all the best racing action as it occurs across the country! Enjoy!

-Keelerman

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