1. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
It's hard to believe that the Wood Memorial is in just nine days. As of right now, his toughest competition will likely come from Jaycito, Norman Asbjornson, and Toby's Corner. It will be interesting to see how Jaycito stacks up against him.
2. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed a half-mile in :47.55 this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center in preparation for the Florida Derby on April 3rd. It will be a major test for this colt. Should he win – and barring a 124 Beyer Speed Figure by Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial -- he will return to the top of my list.
3. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Kwon Cho
Looks like the favorite for the upcoming Santa Anita Derby. Seeing how decisively he defeated his rivals in the San Felipe Stakes, I doubt that any of them will pose much of a threat to him when they meet him again in April. This colt is legitimate.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Moving this colt back up on a hunch that he is going to keep improving and run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May. The Louisiana Derby will tell us more.
5. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Recorded his first workout since the Fountain of Youth on March 13th, breezing a half-mile in :48.90. He could be talented enough to win the Kentucky Derby on the front end, but I would like to see him rate off the pace in the Florida Derby.
6. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
Breezed five furlongs at Palm Meadows in 1:02 2/5 on March 20th. I expect that he will have one more breeze – perhaps at a half-mile – prior to the Florida Derby.
7. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His final Derby prep will probably come in the Florida Derby. It will be interesting to see if he can handle Soldat and To Honor and Serve. If he does, expect him to shoot into the top five on everyone's Derby lists.
8. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
His Rebel Stakes victory was dominating, impressive, and fast. He was never in danger of being defeated. He’s proven he can carry his incredible speed around two turns, but a mile and a quarter is another question.
9. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
The current plan is to run this colt in the Wood Memorial against Uncle Mo. He would have to improve considerably in his second start of the year to have any chance at defeating the champion, but win or lose it should set him up nicely for the Derby.
10. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed a slow half-mile in :50.90 at Palm Meadows on March 19th. He should be among the favorites in the Blue Grass Stakes next month, especially since he ran so well in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity there at Keeneland last year.
11. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I love the fact that he scratched from the Rebel Stakes to join the Louisiana Derby field. He was just going to be up against too much in the Rebel -- breaking from an outside post position, trying to defeat The Factor -- the Louisiana Derby should be a much easier spot.
12. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm wondering which final Derby prep race this colt will start in. It won't be in the Wood Memorial against stablemate Uncle Mo. It won't be in the Florida Derby against stablemate Stay Thirsty. He wasn't entered in the Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby, or Spiral Stakes. I highly doubt that he will ship to Santa Anita for their Derby. This leaves the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby -- which will he run in?
13. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
He defeated Positive Response and Comma to the Top in the El Camino Real Derby. Posistive Response comes back and dominates in the John Battaglia. Comma to the Top takes the lead in the San Felipe before finishing a decent fourth. Hmm. . .
14. Anthony’s Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
Worked a half-mile in :46 4/5 on March 20th at Hollywood Park, by far the fastest four-furlong workout of the day. He should be primed and ready for the Santa Anita Derby on April 2nd.
15. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Ran a strong third in the Rebel but was by no means a threat for the win. I like that he has put two solid efforts together in a row, and he could very well improve in the Arkansas Derby.
16. Positive Response - Trained by William Morey
Has drawn gate two in the Spiral Stakes, where he will take on the likes of Thirtyfirststreet and Decisive Moment. If he is to make the Kentucky Derby, he has to win -- otherwise, he probably won't garner enough graded earnings.
17. Indian Winter - Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
Kind of inherited a spot on this list after Rogue Romance and Gourmet Dinner dropped out. His last race was quite disappointing, but I'm going to give him one more chance to prove himself
18. Astrology – Trained by Steve Asmussen
Drew the far outside in the Sunland Derby, which will be his first start since finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last year. If he wins the Sunland Derby, he may potentially run in the Kentucky Derby off of only one prep race, which would be highly unusual.
19. Sway Away - Trained by Jeff Bonde
Very disappointed by his sixth place finish in the Rebel Stakes, but I read that he lost a tooth during the race. This make me lean toward simply throwing the race out and judging him by his past efforts, but I'd like to see him rebound in his next start before moving him back up this list.
20. Data Link - Trained by Claude McGaughey III
He has won three straight races with strong late runs on the grass, and the Blue Grass Stakes has been mentioned as potentially his next start. He has lost both of his starts on dirt, but one of those was a fourth in a maiden special weight at Saratoga -- behind Astrology, To Honor and Serve, and Anthony's Cross.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Note: Rogue Romance has suffered a slight foot fracture which will force him to miss all of the Triple Crown races. I have therefore removed him from this list. I also removed Sky Music from the “Need to Show a Lot More” section because he has not recorded a workout since finishing second in the Undaunted Mettle Stakes on February 18th.
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - Scratching from the Rebel Stakes is going to throw off his schedule.
Arch Traveler - The Florida Derby has been confirmed as this colt's next start.
Congo - Quite impressed by his ability to escape from pockets.
Decisive Moment - Drew gate ten in the Spiral.
Flashpoint - Swale Stakes or Florida Derby will be next.
Gourmet Dinner - Hasn't breezed since the Fountain of Youth.
Kathmanblu - The Ashland Stakes at Keeneland is her current goal.
Machen - Drew gate seven in the Louisiana Derby.
Mr Commons - The Santa Anita Derby is next.
Sweet Ducky - Drew gate six in the UAE Derby.
Toby's Corner - The Wood Memorial against Uncle Mo may be next.
Wilkinson - Drew gate ten in the Louisiana Derby.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - I have the suspicion that he won't be racing again for a while.
Bandbox - Private Terms victory was accomplished with great ease.
Beamer - Fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn't what I was hoping for.
Beer Meister – Has drawn gate ten in the Sunland Derby.
Bench Points – I assume that the Santa Anita Derby is next.
Caleb's Posse – Very impressed by his strong second in the Rebel.
Cal Nation – Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Chasing Moonlight – Drew gate nine in the Hansel Stakes at Turfway.
Crimson Knight - Fought hard in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Dance City – Victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream over Cal Nation and Bowman’s Causeway was quite impressive.
Eminent Tale - Quite impressed by his Sweet Envoy Stakes victory.
Fusa Code - Borderland Derby winner drew gate three in the Sunland Derby.
J J's Lucky Train – Wondering where he will run next.
J W Blue - Wondering where he will race next.
Left – Drew gate eleven in the Louisiana Derby.
Nacho Business – Drew the rail in the Louisiana Derby.
Norman Asbjornson – The Wood Memorial will likely be next.
Queen'splatekitten - Runner-up finish in a paceless Palm Beach Stakes was by no means disappointing.
R Heat Lightning – Wondering where she will run next.
Supreme Ruler – Drew gate six in the Sunland Derby.
The Ole Gen – Drew gate seven in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway.
Watch Me Go - Tampa Bay Derby victory was surprising.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Adirondack Express - Broke his maiden on March 12th at Tampa Bay Downs.
Awesome Patriot – Disappointed by his poor San Felipe showing.
Behold de Buy – Drew gate five in the Sunland Derby.
Bowman's Causeway – Finished third in an allowance race at Gulfstream despite a perfect pace scenario.
Casper's Touch – Wondering where he will race next.
Comma to the Top - Fourth place finish in the San Felipe was fine, but it's obvious that he has distance limitations.
J P's Gusto – Seventh place finish in the Rebel Stakes was extremely disappointing.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Nacho Saint – Drew gate eight in the Sunland Derby.
Picko's Pride – Very disappointed by his eighth place finish in the Rebel.
Runflatout - Last place finish in the San Felipe was terribly disappointing.
San Pablo - Broke his maiden on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth.
Shackleford – Returned to the worktab for the first time since the Fountain of Youth on March 19th.
-Keelerman
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