DUBAI WORLD CUP ANALYSIS

Seven races. Ninety-eight horses. $26 million in purses. Those are the basic facts about this year's Dubai World Cup program, where some of the world’s greatest horses will compete in a series of championship races led by the ten million dollar Dubai World Cup.

Normally, I wouldn't discuss races like these during the springtime; for springtime is a time for debating the merits of Triple Crown contenders. But I am making an exception because this is such a huge event. The following are my thoughts and selections for each of the races, along with J.R.'s picks as well. I will be making this fairly brief, for I still have to type up my thoughts on the Louisiana Derby and such, but I thought that it would be fun to have a little change of pace and talk about Dubai for a little while. Enjoy!

Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored by Emirates NBD (Group II)

This turf sprint race—about five furlongs—worth $1,000,000, is one of the most fascinating races on the card. The American hopes are led by Stradivinsky, an eight-year-old gelding who went from being a successful claimer to a grade III stakes winner. Although quite talented, he has unfortunately drawn gate fourteen. If he can overcome it, hats off. Mr. Gruff is in the same boat; he's quick and talented but will break from gate sixteen. He also has to overcome not having raced since May 2010. Quick Enough is another American-based runner in the field. He won the grade III Morvich Handicap last year at Santa Anita Park, and I really do like his chances here. Prohibit has shown stakes-caliber form in the past, but his last race was was disappointing. So I'll pick J J The Jet Plane, who has shown magnificent form during the past year and should be able to work out a perfect trip.

Keelerman's selections: J J The Jet Plane, Prohibit, Stradivinky, Sole Power
J.R.'s selections: Happy Dubai, Stradivinsky, J J The Jet Plane, Quick Enough

Gololphin Mile Sponsored by Etisalat (Group II)

Remember Conveyance? He won the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III), Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and ran second in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last spring. Sent off at 27-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he ran fifteenth after setting a very quick pace. Now, he is among the favorites in the Godolphin Mile in Dubai. He has only had one race since the Kentucky Derby, that being a runner-up finish to Bankable in the Emriates Air Mahab Al Shimaal (Group III) earlier this month going six furlongs. However, I'm not fully convinced that a mile is his best distance and don't believe he will win tomorrow. Instead, I shall go with a longshot in Rileyskeepingfaith, who—after many starts last year going six furlongs—easily scored in the one-mile Dubai Duty Free Zabeel Mile (Group II). The results of that race make me suspect that he is at his best going a mile and will perform admirably here tomorrow. Skysurfers won the one-mile Dubai Firebreak Stakes over the very nice colt Musir, and should be right in the mix. I Want Revenge leads the American colts, but he hasn't returned to the winners’ circle since his breathtaking Wood Memorial victory in 2009. Still, he made a bold run in the Donn Handicap last time out before flattening out and should be sharper today.

Keelerman's selections: Rileyskeepingfaith, Skysurfers, I Want Revenge, Conveyance
J.R.'s selections: Red Jazz, I Want Revenge, Skysurfers, Imbongi

UAE Derby Sponsored by the Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (Group II)

The biggest question here is whether or not any of the runners in this race will ship to Kentucky for the Kentucky Derby in just six weeks. Several of them are nominated to the Triple Crown, so I wouldn't be completely surprised. Among the obvious contenders here are Mahbooba, Khawlah, and Reem. Those three are all fillies, and they have proven to be very good fillies at that. Of the three, I like Khawlah best, as she gamely defeated Mahbooba in the Al Tayer Motors UAE Oaks (Group III) last time out. Mahbooba was the heavy favorite in the Oaks off of a stunning victory in the Etisalat UAE 1,000 Guineas, but was unable to catch Khawlah in her first start beyond a mile. As form Reem, she has proven to be an excellent stakes-caliber filly but doesn't seem to be on the same level as the other two. But despite these quality fillies running in the race, the horse I like best is Splash Point. The son of Street Cry who won the Dubai 2,000 Guineas (Group III) in excellent fashion and may improve with the added distance of today's race. Sweet Ducky is an intriguing contender, and I am very fond of him, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track. I wouldn't toss Utley out either.

Keelerman's selections: Splash Point, Khawlah, Zanzamar, Mahbooba
J.R.'s selections: Zanzamar, Mahbooba, Splash Point, Master of Hounds

Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (Group I)

This is a race in which the American runners should have some influence. Their brigade is led by Kinsale King, winner of this race last year. However, he lost three straight races after that and wasn't even close in two of them. But he resumed his winning ways in a Golden Gate Fields allowance race at six furlong, which he won easily. However, the horse that he barely defeated in last year's Shaheen, Rocket Man, is back for another try. The six-year-old gelding has never won a group I race, but has missed by less than a half-length in four of them. In last year's Shaheen, he lost by just a half-length and is possibly better now than he was then. With a good trip, I expect him to win rather easily. Euroears is obviously a contender based off of his brilliant victory in the Palos Verdes Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita last time out, but the front-running horse will be making his first start over a synthetic track. Dynamic Blitz was impressive in a local prep for this race, but will have to run the race of his life to win.

Keelerman's selections: Rocket Man, Dynamic Blitz, Kinsale King, Dim Sum
J.R.'s selections: Rocket Man, Dim Sum, Euroears, Sunny King

Dubai Duty Free Sponsored by Dubai Duty Free (Group I)

There are a lot of horses capable of winning this race. One of the favorites is Presvis, who nearly overcame a trouble-filled trip in the Emirates Airline Jebel Hatta Stakes (group II) to miss by a neck. However, he ran eleventh in this race a year ago. Wigmore Hall, second in the Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) here in America last year, won the Jebel Hatta in which Presvis lost and should be closing late tomorrow. Mendip has won five of his six starts, but has never raced on turf. Better Than Ever has won fourteen of fifteen races but has been competing in Singapore. Tazeez has won two straight at this distance, but this is a big step up in class. Victor's Cry is the lead American hopeful but is a bit inconsistent. Debussy is a logical contender, but he hasn't won a race since upsetting the Arlington Million (gr. I) last year. Beauty Flash has won three straight, including two group I races, but may not want to go a mile and an eighth. What a great field of horses!

Keelerman's selections: Mendip, Wigmore Hall, Better Than Ever, Victor's Cry
J.R.'s selections: Beauty Flash, Presvis, Wigmore Hall, Tazeez

Dubai Sheema Classic Sponsored by China Guangsha (Group I)

This race lost quite a bit of luster when Snow Fairy scratched, but it's still got plenty of interesting contenders. As I mentioned on a post yesterday, Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay will be continuing their rivalry in this mile-and-a-half event and are among the top contenders. Of the pair, I like Champ Pegasus better here. Dangerous Midge is another contender, but he hasn't started since defeating Champ Pegasus in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) last fall. Redwood has a nice late kick, but I'm not sure if he is good enough to win a race of this caliber. Chinchon won the United Nations Handicap (gr. I) last year over a very nice horse in Winchester, but has finished sixth in both of his starts since then. Al Shemali won the Dubai Duty Free last year, but has not won since then. Rulership has proven to be a solid stakes competitor in Japan and may be a bit overlooked here.

Keelerman's selections: Champ Pegasus, Rulership, Dangerous Midge, Bourbon Bay
J.R.'s selections: Dangerous Midge, Champ Pegasus, Redwood, Rulership

Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline Group (Group I)

This is the biggest race on the card -- the richest race in the world. The Dubai World Cup has drawn a field of fourteen fabulous horses. The American hopefuls are Fly Down, Gio Ponti, and Richard's Kid. Fly Down placed in four grade I races last year, including the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. But he could manage no better than a distant fifth in the Donn Handicap last month. Gio Ponti finished a narrowly beaten fourth in this race last year, but will be making his first start since November tomorrow. Richard's Kid won two grade I races last year, including the rich Pacific Classic, but failed dismally in a Dubai prep for this race.

Other top contenders are Cape Blanco, Victoire Pisa, Musir, Twice Over, and Buena Vista. Cape Blanco showed classic form last year, winning the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group I) by a half-length. He was also brilliant in the Tattersall Millions Irish Champion Stakes (Group I) later that year, defeating the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Twic Over by 5 1/2 lengths. But he has not raced since finishing fourteenth in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe after a rough trip. Victoire Pisa has won two straight races in Japan, including a nose victory of Buena Vista in the Arima Kinen (Group I). Musir has won five of his eight races and has never finished worse than second, but has lost his two preps for this race. Twice Over has long been a good horse, winning the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group I) in 2009 before running third to Zenyatta and Gio Ponti in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He ran tenth in last year's Dubai World Cup, but was only beaten three lengths. He enters the World Cup off of two consecutive wins, in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes and the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (Group II), in which he defeated Musir, Gitano Hernando, and Richard's Kid. Finally, we come to Buena Vista, the brilliant Japanese mare who has proven to be as good as any male in her country. She won the Japan Cup (Group I) last year by a decisive 1 3/4 lengths, but was disqualified and placed second.

There are several fascinating story lines in this year's Dubai World Cup, but the two which I will be paying closest attention to are a pair of earnings records which could potentially fall. Should Buena Vista win the race, it would propel her lifetime earnings to $18,364,499. That would make her the richest horse in the world; a remarkable achievement indeed. Should Gio Ponti win, it would shove his lifetime earnings up to $11,037,800 -- and past Curlin's earnings record for a North American-based runner. Being a huge fan of Curlin, I wish that his earnings record could stand forever. But I am also a huge Gio Ponti fan, and I love to see horses break records. So I will be cheering for Gio Ponti to win the Dubai World Cup in what will likely be his last year of racing, regardless of whom I pick to win.

Keelerman's selections: Buena Vista, Twice Over, Victoire Pisa, Gio Ponti
J.R.'s selections: Victoire Pisa, Twice Over, Cape Blanco, Buena Vista

Enjoy the races everyone!

-Keelerman