The grade II Rebel Stakes, the third of the four major Oaklawn Park prep races for the Kentucky Derby, has drawn a large field of 13. However, the scratches of Dreaminofthewin, Elite Alex, and Glint have reduced the field to “only” ten horses.
Here are the entries:
1 Archarcharch
2 Alternation
3 Dreaminofthewin
4 Picko’s Pride
5 J P’s Gusto
6 The Factor
7 Caleb’s Posse
8 Saratoga Red
9 Sway Away
10 Elite Alex
11 Glint
12 Bluegrass Jam
13 J W Blue
Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) last month, is 8-1 on the morning line. He probably deserves to be less than that, but he just hadn’t garnered much respect off of that victory. Perhaps this is because the runner-up that day, J P’s Gusto, had a troubled trip and was charging hard at the finish. Expect to see Archarcharch in contention at the top of the stretch.
Alternation won an allowance race against older horses impressively a couple races prior to the Southwest Stakes. He will be making his first start in stakes company and figures to be charging in late in the homestretch.
Picko’s Pride is a cotl that I honestly feel has a great shot at winning. 20-1 on the morning line, he closed from twenty lengths off the pace in the Southwest to finish fourth, beaten 3 ¾ lengths. And his trip was not clean at all. With a little luck today, I would not be surprised to see him flash under the wire first at odds of 20-1 or more.
J P’s Gusto, as I mentioned above, finished second in the Southwest after a rough trip. Although the colt is not bred to succeed at the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, the mile and a sixteenth distance of the Rebel should be exactly what he wants. He has good tactical speed, as well as the ability to rate, and should adapt to any pace scenario. He should get first run at the leaders.
The Factor is the horse that everyone will have their eyes on. The colt has won his last two races with triple-digit Beyers and has an incredible amount of speed. But two questions remain – can he be rated and can he stretch his tremendous speed around two turns? Both questions will likely be answered this afternoon. Should he succeed, the Kentucky Derby will probably become his goal.
Caleb’s Posse won the Smarty Jones Stakes, the first of the Oaklawn Kentucky Derby preps, in January. However, he ran poorly in the Southwest Stakes after a rough trip. A cleaner trip should help his chances today, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t talented enough to compete successfully at this level of competition.
Saratoga Red broke his maiden in front-running style in February at Oaklawn. After setting quick fractions of :23 1/5 and :46 1/5, he held on to win by a desperate neck at 22.50-1. Considering that the horse he dueled faded to finish well back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saratoga Red outruns his odds this afternoon.
Sway Away could end up being sent off as the second choice. He closed rapidly against The Factor last time out in the San Vicente Stakes, falling a length short after being five lengths behind at the eighth pole. That was his first start off of a lengthy layoff, and he has every chance to run even better today.
Bluegrass Jam has been running well enough in allowance company, but his speed figures do not make him a contender here and he just hasn’t shown enough to warrant consideration for the win. Perhaps he can close for a piece of the purse, but I’m afraid that I don’t think so.
Finally, there is J W Blue. The colt ran the best race of his short career last time out, rallying from far off the pace to win a mile and a sixteenth allowance race over this track by 1 ½ lengths. If the pace is quick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flying late for a top four finish.
My picks are thus:
1 Picko’s Pride
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Alternation
4 The Factor
5 Archarcharch
6 Sway Away
7 Saratoga Red
8 J W Blue
9 Caleb’s Posse
10 Bluegrass Jam
It was a very difficult race to handicap, but I’m fairly confident that Picko’s Pride is going to win. J P’s Gusto should be right there in the stretch, and Alternation should be closing fast. Although The Factor is perhaps the most talented horse in the race, I do worry about his ability to stretch out around two turns. We’ll see what happens.
J.R. is taking a more conservative route. Usually one to try and find a longshot to pick, he has instead selected J P’s Gusto. He’s convinced that J P’s Gusto was the best horse in the Southwest and that he will prove it with a strong victory today.
His complete selections are:
1 J P’s Gusto
2 Sway Away
3 J W Blue
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Alternation
7 The Factor
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 Bluegrass Jam
10 Saratoga Red
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Tap Star, who is coming off of a sharp allowance victory. However, I really like Bandbox, who was beaten a neck by the classy J J’s Lucky Train in the Miracle Wood Stakes over this track last time out.
Another logical contender is Rush Now, who ran last as the favorite in the Count Fleet Stakes two starts back before impressively winning a one-mile claiming race at Laurel. He’s back into stakes company now, and should be right there throughout the race.
As this is one of the Handicapping Contest races, I handicapped the race and selected Bandbox to win. Somewhat surprisingly, J.R. went with the favorite Tap Star. Perhaps he is being a bit more conservative because he is behind in the contest. We’ll see!
And that’s all for now! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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