I've gone back and forth on which race to select as this week's feature race, (not an easy decision with so many fine races!) but finally settled on the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park, specifically because Uncle Mo will be running there.
FEATURE RACE: THE TIMELY WRITER STAKES
One Mile on the Main Track/Gulfstream Park/$100,000 Purse
After months of anticipation; months of wondering; and months of waiting, the brilliant Champion 2yo Male of 2010, the undefeated Uncle Mo, shall finally make his three-year-old debut.
Everyone knows what Uncle Mo did last year. He broke his maiden by a huge margin while receiving an equally huge Beyer Speed Figure. He then recorded the co-second fastest running of the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) in history. To complete his championship campaign, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) by four easy lengths.
He is currently the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. It is possible that he has the talent to win the Triple Crown. But first, he has to win his first start since the Breeders’ Cup. And that comes in today’s Timely Writer Stakes.
Here are the entries:
| Post Position | Horse | Weight | Morning Line Odds |
| 1 | Uncle Mo | 123 | 3-5 |
| 2 | Gallant Dreams | 117 | 12-1 |
| 3 | Madman Diaries | 121 | 6-1 |
| 4 | Rocking Out | 117 | 4-1 |
| 5 | Schoolyard Cat | 117 | 20-1 |
| 6 | Rattlesnake Bridge | 117 | 5-1 |
I shall begin my analysis with the horse that drew the rail, which happens to be Uncle Mo. As I mentioned above, the magnificent son of Indian Charlie won all three of his starts last year and is without a doubt one of the most brilliant juveniles in recent memory. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the colt has been training quite well for this race and should be able to win without much effort. On the other hand, we’ve already seen To Honor and Serve return from a long layoff and disappoint, so as solid a favorite as Uncle Mo seems to be, the possibility exists that he could potentially be upset. Still, I don’t see it happening. John Velazquez has the mount, as usual.
This brings us to Gallant Dreams. A son of Bernardini, the colt ran fourth in his debut on September 18th 2010, finishing nearly eleven lengths behind winner Justin Phillip. One month later, on October 22nd, he broke his maiden by an impressive 3 ½ lengths. Trained by Thomas Albertrani, the colt has not raced since then but has had a steady series of workouts to prepare him for this race. He will be ridden by Javier Castellano.
Then there is Madman Diaries, a son of Bring the Heat. The colt was a sharp winner of the grade III Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park as a juvenile, defeating a classy field which included J J’s Lucky Train. He then ran a magnificent fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), beaten just 2 ½ lengths. Given a bit of a rest after that, he returned to the races in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) just two weeks ago, where he ran a disappointing seventh. But I expect him to run considerably better in his second start back. Trained by Wesley Ward, he will be ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez. Interestingly, he has not worked out since the Hutcheson.
The number four horse is Rocking Out, who may very well have the best shot at upsetting the champion. Trained by Rick Dutrow, the son of Include broke his maiden with an incredible late kick going six furlongs at Aqueduct, blazing from 4 ½ lengths back at the eighth pole to win by 4 ¼ lengths. Behind him in third that day was Crossbow, who has since returned to win two straight races. Rocking Out’s second start wasn’t quite as impressive as his first, for he ran third in a one mile allowance race after setting the pace. However, a return to his off-the-pace style of running should enable him to muster a powerful charge in the stretch. Time will tell if his charge will be powerful enough to upset Uncle Mo. Julien Leparoux will ride.
Schoolyard Cat, the longest shot on the morning line, is the fifth horse. He has made seven starts, but has only won once. He lost all four of his starts as a juvenile, finishing tenth, fourth, fourth, and second. He then broke his maiden in his first start of 2011, defeating eleven other three-year-olds by 2 ¾ lengths in a maiden claiming event. However, two subsequent starts in allowance optional claiming company yielded a pair of seventh place finishes. I can’t really see him being a contender here. Trained by Carlos Martin, he will be ridden by Ryan Curatolo.
Finally, we come to Rattlesnake Bridge. The son of Tapit broke his maiden first time out going six furlongs on February 12th, closing from six lengths back at the eighth pole to win by a length and a quarter. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the colt will be making his first start since then. Jose Lezcano has the mount.
My picks are thus. . .
1 Uncle Mo
2 Rattlesnake Bridge
3 Madman Diaries
4 Rocking Out
5 Gallant Dreams
6 Schoolyard Cat
I can’t see Uncle Mo losing this race. Even if he isn’t fully primed to run his best race, he should win. I fully expect him to dominate and continue on his way toward the Kentucky Derby.
Now, I expected J.R. to select Uncle Mo to win as well. However, he did not. After evaluating Uncle Mo’s competitors, he has selected Rattlesnake Bridge to win, feeling that the colt will close gallantly in the final eighth to defeat the champion “by a half-length.”
His picks are these:
1 Rattlesnake Bridge
2 Uncle Mo
3 Rocking Out
4 Madman Diaries
5 Gallant Dreams
6 Schoolyard Cat
We’ll see what happens!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park has drawn perhaps the toughest field of the weekend’s races. Whereas the Timely Writer and Tampa Bay Derby both have a solid favorite, the San Felipe Stakes has no such favorite. It has drawn a very evenly-matched field of ten.
The mild morning line favorite – and he is by no way the heavy favorite – is Jaycito, at 7-2. Winner of the grade I Norfolk Stakes last year, he will be making his first start since turning in a rather unusual effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he went extremely wide for much of the race and never really had a chance. He will be racing with blinkers off and starting for the first time with Bob Baffert as a trainer. He has been working lights out and should be primed to run a huge race.
Runflatout, Premier Pegasus, and Comma to the Top are all at 4-1. Runflatout broke his maiden impressively in his only start, but will be racing around two turns for the first time. Premier Pegasus won his first three starts before running a strong third in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) last month, and looks like a colt who will improve in his first start around two turns. Comma to the Top won five straight as a juvenile, culminating with a decisive victory in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but finished a disappointing fourth in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). This will be his first start on dirt.
Albergatti broke his maiden in front-running style last time out, running seven furlongs in 1:20 3/5. However, he has drawn the rail and will likely have to be sent to the front. Surrey Star ran fourth in the San Vicente Stakes, but ran his second quarter mile that day in :20 1/5. Two turns should help him. Awesome Patriot is stakes placed, and won an allowance race impressively last time out, but has not raced since December. Bench Points is an undefeated stakes winner who dominated a six furlong allowance race last time out, but like many other here he will be making his first two turn start. Jakesam ran a strong second in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. II) and may be a bit underbet. Finally, we have Quail Hill, who finished a decent third last time out in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Tough race, isn’t it?
J.R. and I have debated our picks for a couple of days now, and we still aren’t sure who to select. But as this is one of our Handicapping Contest races, we must come up with our picks.
Here are mine:
1 Premier Pegasus
2 Jaycito
3 Runflatout
4 Comma to the Top
5 Bench Points
6 Jakesam
7 Awesome Patriot
8 Quail Hill
9 Surrey Star
10 Albergatti
And here are J.R.’s picks:
1 Comma to the Top
2 Runflatout
3 Bench Points
4 Jakesam
5 Premier Pegasus
6 Jaycito
7 Quail Hill
8 Awesome Patriot
9 Albergatti
10 Surrey Star
As I mentioned above, this is a very evenly-matched race and I really feel that any of the ten horses could win. I’ve gone with Premier Pegasus in hopes that he will be better around two turns than he has been around one turn. J.R. has selected Comma to the Top in hopes that he will relish the dirt in his first start over the surface and dominate accordingly.
The Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs is probably going to end in much the same way that last month’s Sam F. Davis Stakes did – with Brethren winning impressively. The undefeated colt has drawn the far outside in today’s race, but isn’t facing all that much. Trained by Todd Pletcher, I fully expect him to win.
Free Entry will probably be the second choice, based off of his two consecutive victories in his last two starts. The colt has proven to be somewhat versatile, and should be able to adapt to numerous pace scenarios.
Striding Ahead should run a nice race, based off of his brilliant maiden victory last time out. Going a mile and a sixteenth in a February 5th Maiden Special Weight, he won by nearly seven lengths. Trained by Bill Mott, I feel he has an excellent chance at running second, or maybe even winning if Brethren falters.
Beamer is another colt I like. He closed some ground late in the Sam F. Davis Stakes to finish fourth, and should run better today at a price.
My top four picks are:
1 Brethren
2 Striding Ahead
3 Beamer
4 Free Entry
J.R.’s top picks are:
1 Brethren
2 Economic Summit
3 Free Entry
4 Watch Me Go
There are many other races being run this weekend, such as listed stakes races and some promising allowance races, but this post is getting lengthy. Instead of posting the details of each one here, I shall instead be posting numerous short posts throughout the day discussing these races and posting their results.
Now go out and enjoy a fabulous set of races!
-Keelerman
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