1. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Will make his 2011 debut in the Timely Writer Stakes on Saturday, in which he has drawn the rail. This is a major step for the champion juvenile – he needs to show that he is the same colt at three that he was at two.
2. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Although I’m disappointed by his runner-up effort in an allowance race, it was by no means a bad performance. He was beaten a half-length by a promising older horse and he closed his final eighth in about :12 1/5.
3. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
This colt is just waiting to move higher up on my list. I contemplated placing him ahead of Dialed In, but chose instead to give the latter one more chance. This colt has the pedigree to take him places.
4. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Isn’t facing an easy task in the Tampa Bay Derby, as he will be forced to break from gate ten. On the other hand, he has soundly defeated several of the horses in this race already and should be able to dominate here with a clean trip.
5. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
He will be facing a stiff task in the San Felipe Stakes. He has drawn gate nine in a classy field of ten and will have to run a monster race in order to win. But he has been training lights out and should be ready to run his best race.
6. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
Really having trouble convincing myself to keep this horse in this sixth spot. He has just one more race scheduled prior to the Kentucky Derby, that being the Florida Derby. He is going to have to show a lot more than he did in the Fountain of Youth to maintain his position on this list.
7. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Returned to the work tab on March 5th, breezing a half-mile in :48.50 at Gulfstream Park. I have the suspicion that this large colt may be near the top of everyone’s Derby lists after the Louisiana Derby.
8. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Ran a magnificent race in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), winning by 3 ¼ lengths despite being wide throughout. He did drift in a bit in the stretch, but looks like a serious Triple Crown contender.
9. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Like Mucho Macho Man, he returned to the work tab on March 5th, breezing a half-mile in :51.90. This slow workout implies that his next race won’t be for a while. I suspect that the Arkansas Derby could potentially be on the horizon.
10. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I have the suspicion that we have yet to see the best this colt has to offer. He breezed six furlongs on March 6th in 1:12 2/5, a very sharp workout that should set him right on track for the Rebel Stakes in ten days.
11. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
It seems that most of the Risen Star Stakes runners have returned to the workout tab on March 5th! Rogue Romance, third behind Mucho Macho Man and Santiva in the Risen Star, breezed a half-mile at Gulfstream in :48 3/5 on March 5th.
12. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
This colt’s pedigree screams stamina from every corner. Although he doesn’t really strike me as a Kentucky Derby contender at this time, I do believe that he is a serious Belmont Stakes contender.
13. Sway Away - Trained by Jeff Bonde
Worked five furlongs on March 4th at Santa Anita Park, getting the distance in 1:02 4/5. The Rebel Stakes may be his next race.
14. Alternation - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
Breezed for the first time since his allowance victory on February 21st, breezing five furlongs in :59 4/5 at Oaklawn Park. Should he win the Rebel Stakes, expect to see him move up into the top ten.
15. Anthony’s Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat on March 6th at Santa Anita Park. Other than that, there’s not much more to say about this colt.
16. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked six furlongs in 1:12 flat on March 7th at Santa Anita Park. Still as mystery as to where he will start next.
17. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standbridge
This colt is beginning to remind me of Jackson Bend, always finishing right there in major stakes races en route to the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that Jackson Bend ran third in the Preakness despite a less than ideal pedigree for classic distances, perhaps Gourmet Dinner with his similarly oriented pedigree can do the same.
18. Picko's Pride - Trained by McLean Robertson
Breezed a half-mile in :49 1/5 at Oaklawn on March 7th. Graded stakes earnings are, of course, a concern, but I do believe that this colt is something special.
19. Flashpoint - Trained by Rick Dutrow
To be perfectly honest, I can’t see this colt succeeding at classic distances. He strikes me as more of a King’s Bishop/Breeders’ Cup Sprint type runner than a classic winner. But I’ll wait to see how he performs in his next start before writing him off completely.
20. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
I’m going to give this colt one more chance at proving himself to be a legitimate Triple Crown contender. If he should win the San Felipe Stakes, I will move him back up a few notches.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Arch Traveler - Sharp winner of a nine furlong allowance race on the Fountain of Youth undercard.
Astrology - Rebel Stakes is next on the agenda.
Beamer – Drew gate three in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Bowman's Causeway - Strong fourth in the Fountain of Youth was quite promising.
Congo - Quite impressed by his ability to escape from pockets.
J P's Gusto – Should be among the favorites in the Rebel Stakes.
Kathmanblu – The Fair Grounds Oaks may be next.
Machen – Louisiana Derby will likely be next.
Mr Commons - Quite impressive in an allowance race at Santa Anita.
Positive Response – Brilliant winner of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes.
Premier Pegasus – Will make his two turn debut in the San Felipe Stakes.
Runflatout – Drew gate two in the San Felipe Stakes.
Sweet Ducky - Will train up to the Florida Derby.
Toby's Corner - Disappointed that he flattened out in the Gotham Stakes.
Turbulent Descent - Will try to regain her winning ways in the Santa Anita Oaks.
Wilkinson - Not sure where the LeComte winner will turn up next.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Can’t wait for his next start.
Albergatti – Drew the rail in the San Felipe.
Awesome Patriot – Drew gate four in the San Felipe.
Beer Meister – Brilliant late run to win the Turf Paradise Derby launches him into the picture.
Bench Points – Drew gate seven in the San Felipe.
Caleb's Posse – Would not be surprised to see him turn up in the Rebel Stakes.
Cal Nation - Has a lot of catching up to do but raw talent warrants his inclusion here.
Chasing Moonlight - Wondering where he will start next.
Decisive Moment - Louisiana Derby will tell us more.
Fusa Code - Won the Borderland Derby on Saturday in an impressive performance.
Indian Winter - Ran third in the Turf Paradise Derby, but I believe that he is capable of more.
J J's Lucky Train - Won the Miracle Wood Stakes by a neck over Bandbox.
J W Blue - The Rebel Stakes may be his next start.
Left - Won an allowance optional claiming race on Saturday at Fair Grounds.
Nacho Business - Strong second to Arch Traveler encourages me.
Norman Asbjornson – Ran a strong second in the Gotham.
Queen'splatekitten – The Palm Beach Stakes will tell us more.
R Heat Lightning - Rebounded brilliantly in the Davona Dale.
Supreme Ruler - Narrowly beaten by The Ole Gen in an Oaklawn allowance race.
The Factor - The Rebel Stakes will be his next start.
The Ole Gen - Won a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Oaklawn Park on February 27th.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Bandbox - Strong second to J J’s Lucky Train in the Miracle Wood was encouraging.
Behold de Buy - Strong second in the Borderland Derby was promising.
Casper's Touch - Quite disappointing in the Fountain of Youth.
Dance City - Has a lot of catching up to do.
Eminent Tale - Winner of the Undaunted Mettle Stakes could prove an interesting contender.
Monzon – Not sure where he will run next.
San Pablo - Broke his maiden on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth.
Shackleford – Not sure what to think.
Sky Music – Greatly anticipating his next start.
Striding Ahead – Drew the rail in the Tampa Bay Derby.
-Keelerman
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