1. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Contrary to what I stated on my last Top Twenty, the Wood Memorial is not on April 2nd; it is on April 9th. So he's got some more time to prepare for the race. To be perfectly honest, I can't see him losing. He's just too good. And he's training well to boot.
2. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
The Florida Derby is starting to look like the prep race of the year, with Dialed In, Soldat, To Honor and Serve, and Stay Thirsty all scheduled to run. Should there be quick pace, I fully expect Dialed In to come flying from the clouds to claim victory.
3. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Kwon Cho
Hasn't breezed since the San Felipe Stakes. I assume that he will workout once prior to the Santa Anita Derby, perhaps tomorrow morning.
4. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:08 4/5 at Palm Meadows on March 27th. He should be fit and ready for the Florida Derby. As I've mentioned before, I'd like to see him coming from off the pace like he did last year.
5. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
We have reached the climax of the Triple Crown Trail. It's now or never for this colt. He must run his race in the Florida Derby. He cannot run like he did in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, tiring on the far turn. He has to stay on the finish.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Ran third in the Louisiana Derby, but lost a shoe at the start of the race. Although it was disappointing, I believe that it will set him up well for the Kentucky Derby.
7. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He'll be getting a serious class test on Sunday when he tries to defeat an incredible group of runners in the Florida Derby. I'm pretty sure that he's capable of holding his own against them, but I would like to see him do it without drifting in the stretch.
8. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
The Arkansas Derby has been confirmed as his next start. Nehro and Elite Alex are expected to run against him, and probably Caleb's Posse, Archarcharch, and some of the Rebel also-rans. If he defeats them with the same stunning display of speed and power that he showed in the Rebel Stakes, he will likely earn himself the status of second choice -- or even favorite -- in the Kentucky Derby.
9. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
Closed very well to finish fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Because he lacks sufficient graded earnings to make the Derby field, he is going to have to run in the Arkansas Derby in mid-April if he wants to make the Derby.
10. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Although last weekend it sounded as though the Wood Memorial would be his next race, now it sounds as though the Santa Anita Derby is still under consideration. He strikes me as more of a Belmont Stakes runner than a Kentucky Derby horse.
11. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 at Plam Meadows on March 25th. The Blue Grass Stakes will be an interesting spot for him. All he has to do is stay on to the finish. As long as he's within a length or two of victory, I don't care if he wins or loses.
12. Pants On Fire – Trained by Kelly Breen
Very impressed by his surprising Louisiana Derby victory. Admittedly, he did get a fairly easy trip, but I like the way that he dug in and closed his final eighth in :12 3/5. It should set him up well for the Derby.
13. Brethren – Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed a slow half-mile in :51.90 at Palm Meadows on March 27th, his first breeze since the Tampa Bay Derby. The Arkansas Derby will be his final Kentucky Derby prep race.
14. Silver Medallion – Trained by Steve Asmussen
His next race has finally been decided upon: the Santa Anita Derby will be next. I honestly believe that he has an excellent chance at winning. Should he run a strong race -- first, second or third, it doesn't matter -- he'll maintain his spot on this list.
15. Anthony’s Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
His workouts are getting very serious. He worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 at Hollywood Park on March 28th. If this colt does not run well in the Santa Anita Derby, it won't be from lack of training!
16. Nehro – Trained by Steven Asmussen
Strong second in the Louisiana Derby at 36-1 was very, very impressive. He lacked running room passing the quarter pole, but still closed to be beaten by just a neck. It’s hard to say for sure, but I think the rail was bad at Fair Grounds on Louisiana Derby day. If this is the case, than Nehro – who raced along the rail throughout the entire race – ran a tremendous race.
17. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Seems to have the ability to grind his way along in an all-out drive for a great deal of time. This could potentially be a useful trait in the Kentucky Derby, if he can employ it better than Dublin did last year. But he'll have to run first or second in the Arkansas Derby to remain a serious contender.
18. Animal Kingdom – Trained by H. Motion
Ran a marvelous race to win the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes by an impressive 2 ¾ lengths. But he’s going to have to show a bit more – he closed his final eighth in a slow :13.36.
19. Decisive Moment – Trained by Juan Arias
He may have run a better race than Animal Kingdom in the Spiral, for he pressed a very quick pace while four wide and held on well to finish second. But like Animal Kingdom, he’s going to have to run better if he is to be competitive in the Triple Crown races.
20. Crimson China – Trained by H. Motion
Made quite the late run in the Rushaway Stakes, closing four lengths inside the eighth pole to finish second. I’m hoping that he runs in the Blue Grass Stakes in order to secure grading earnings.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Note: I have removed Data Link from this list because his connections have announced that the Kentucky Derby is not on his agenda. I have also removed Sweet Ducky, he ran poorly in the UAE Derby on Saturday and probably won't return for any of the Triple Crown races.
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - Arkansas Derby isn't out of the question.
Arch Traveler - The Florida Derby has been confirmed as this colt's next start.
Astrology - Second place finish in the Sunland Derby was a fairly good performance.
Congo - Hasn't done anything in a while.
Flashpoint - Swale Stakes or Florida Derby will be next.
Indian Winter - Santa Anita Derby is likely next.
Kathmanblu - The Ashland Stakes at Keeneland is her current goal.
Mr Commons - The Santa Anita Derby is next.
Sway Away - Wondering where he'll run next.
Toby's Corner - The Wood Memorial against Uncle Mo may be next.
Twice the Appeal - Shocking upset in the Sunland Derby launches him into the picture.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - I have the suspicion that he won't be racing again for a while.
Bandbox - Private Terms victory was accomplished with great ease.
Beamer - Fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn't what I was hoping for.
Bench Points – I assume that the Santa Anita Derby is next.
Bowman's Causeway – Finished third in an allowance race at Gulfstream despite a perfect pace scenario.
Caleb's Posse – Very impressed by his strong second in the Rebel.
Cal Nation – Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Crimson Knight - Fought hard in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Dance City – Victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream over Cal Nation and Bowman’s Causeway was quite impressive.
Eminent Tale - Quite impressed by his Sweet Envoy Stakes victory.
J J's Lucky Train – Wondering where he will run next.
J W Blue - Wondering where he will race next.
Norman Asbjornson – The Wood Memorial will likely be next.
Positive Response - Hugely disappointing in the Spiral.
Queen'splatekitten - Runner-up finish in a paceless Palm Beach Stakes was by no means disappointing.
R Heat Lightning – Gulfstream Oaks is next.
Swift Warrior - Very impressive in the Rushaway Stakes.
Watch Me Go - Tampa Bay Derby victory was surprising.
Wilkinson - Drew gate ten in the Louisiana Derby.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Adirondack Express - Broke his maiden on March 12th at Tampa Bay Downs.
Awesome Patriot – Disappointed by his poor San Felipe showing.
Beer Meister – Late-running fifth in the Sunland Derby wasn't terrible, but he needs to show more.
Casper's Touch – Wondering where he will race next.
Comma to the Top - Santa Anita Derby is next.
Fusa Code - Seventh place finish in the Sunland Derby was very disappointing.
J P's Gusto – Seventh place finish in the Rebel Stakes was extremely disappointing.
Machen - Fifth place finish in the Louisiana Derby was disappointing.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Left – Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby.
Nacho Business – Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby.
Nacho Saint – Disappointing in the Sunland Derby.
Picko's Pride – Very disappointed by his eighth place finish in the Rebel.
Runflatout - Last place finish in the San Felipe was terribly disappointing.
San Pablo - Broke his maiden on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth.
Shackleford – Entered in the Florida Derby.
The Ole Gen – Third place finish in the Rushaway Stakes wasn't quite what I was hoping for.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
TWICE THE APPEAL WINS THE SUNLAND DERBY!
Twice the Appeal pulled off an astonishing upset in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) tonight at Sunland Park, taking the lead from favored Astrology in the stretch to win by just over a length.
Sent off at 25-1 under Christian Santiago Reyes, the dark bay or brown colt had run second in the Turf Paradise Derby but had been disqualified to fourth. He was not expected to be able to win against such a spectacular field as this one, yet did so in impressive fashion.
The race unfolded pretty much as expected. Sinai broke poorly but was quickly sent to the lead. Through very quick fractions of :22 3/5 and :45 flat he led the way over Nacho Saint, Astrology, and R Skydiver. Twice the Appeal was mid-pack early, while Beer Meister, winner of the Turf Paradise Derby, was last of all.
Turning for home, Twice the Appeal had threaded his way through traffic and confronted Astrology for the lead. The latter had inherited the lead after Sinai and Nacho Saint had given way. A brief duel ensued, with Twice the Appeal drawing away to take the lead. Ruler On Ice made a huge run and nearly nipped Astrology for second, but had to settle for third. It's My Party rallied for fourth at 40-1, with Beer Meister charging belatedly for fifth. The final time was 1:50.91.
Nacho Saint, Fusa Code, R Skydiver, Supreme Ruler, Behold de Buy, and Sinai completed the order of finish.
-Keelerman
Sent off at 25-1 under Christian Santiago Reyes, the dark bay or brown colt had run second in the Turf Paradise Derby but had been disqualified to fourth. He was not expected to be able to win against such a spectacular field as this one, yet did so in impressive fashion.
The race unfolded pretty much as expected. Sinai broke poorly but was quickly sent to the lead. Through very quick fractions of :22 3/5 and :45 flat he led the way over Nacho Saint, Astrology, and R Skydiver. Twice the Appeal was mid-pack early, while Beer Meister, winner of the Turf Paradise Derby, was last of all.
Turning for home, Twice the Appeal had threaded his way through traffic and confronted Astrology for the lead. The latter had inherited the lead after Sinai and Nacho Saint had given way. A brief duel ensued, with Twice the Appeal drawing away to take the lead. Ruler On Ice made a huge run and nearly nipped Astrology for second, but had to settle for third. It's My Party rallied for fourth at 40-1, with Beer Meister charging belatedly for fifth. The final time was 1:50.91.
Nacho Saint, Fusa Code, R Skydiver, Supreme Ruler, Behold de Buy, and Sinai completed the order of finish.
-Keelerman
UPDATES FROM SUNLAND PARK #3
The next two races at Sunland Park, the La Coneja Stakes and New Mexico Breeders' Oaks, were both won in upset fashion. The La Coneja went to a 12-1 shot in Shemoves, who defeated the even-money favorite Cali Baby. The New Mexico Breeders' Oaks went to Iplaytricks at 6-1, with favored Highspeed Rescue finishing off the board.
It is currently seven minutes to post time for the twelfth race of the evening, the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III). Astrology is currently the 2-1 favorite. Sinai is the 5-2 second choice, with Nacho Saint at 5-1 and Supreme Ruler 8-1. Turf Paradise Derby winner Beer Meister is 10-1.
The Sunland Derby is perhaps best remembered as the race in which Mine That Bird ran fourth prior to winning the 2009 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) at odds of 50-1. This year, the race has drawn a very promising field which will likely turn out a Kentucky Derby starter or two.
I'll be back with the results in a few minutes!
-Keelerman
It is currently seven minutes to post time for the twelfth race of the evening, the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III). Astrology is currently the 2-1 favorite. Sinai is the 5-2 second choice, with Nacho Saint at 5-1 and Supreme Ruler 8-1. Turf Paradise Derby winner Beer Meister is 10-1.
The Sunland Derby is perhaps best remembered as the race in which Mine That Bird ran fourth prior to winning the 2009 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) at odds of 50-1. This year, the race has drawn a very promising field which will likely turn out a Kentucky Derby starter or two.
I'll be back with the results in a few minutes!
-Keelerman
UPDATES FROM SUNLAND PARK #2
The ninth race at Sunland Park went in impressive fashion to the 5-2 third choice Twelve Tenty Two, who under Julien Leparoux pulled away in the stretch to win the $100,000 Harry Henson Stakes by about five lengths.
Twelve Twenty Two sat second in the early going, just off of a quick pace set by Hayley's Halo. After a half-mile in :44.98, Twelve Twenty Two took the lead, ran three-quarters in 1:10.08, and drew off to win. The final time was 1:36.49. 6-5 favorite American Story finished second, followed by Hayley's Halo and Miss Heather Lee. The winner is trained by Henry Dominguez.
-Keelerman
Twelve Twenty Two sat second in the early going, just off of a quick pace set by Hayley's Halo. After a half-mile in :44.98, Twelve Twenty Two took the lead, ran three-quarters in 1:10.08, and drew off to win. The final time was 1:36.49. 6-5 favorite American Story finished second, followed by Hayley's Halo and Miss Heather Lee. The winner is trained by Henry Dominguez.
-Keelerman
PLUM PRETTY WINS THE SUNLAND PARK OAKS!
Overwhelming favorite Plum Pretty absolutely annihilated her five rivals in the $200,000 Sunland Park Oaks, drawing away in the stretch to win by twenty-five incredible lengths.
The filly was entering the race off of a third place finish in the grade I Las Virgenes Stakes last month behind Zazu and Turbulent Descent. Under Martin Garcia, she helped set a quick early pace of :23.06 and :46.83 along with longshot Icelain Diva. She then took the lead and extended it throughout the remainder of the race, eventually stopping the clock by 1:43.18.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Plum Pretty definitely filly looks like a serious Kentucky Oaks contender.
Finishing second was Paloma Mesa, with Formal Plan finishing third and Golden Springs fourth.
The filly was entering the race off of a third place finish in the grade I Las Virgenes Stakes last month behind Zazu and Turbulent Descent. Under Martin Garcia, she helped set a quick early pace of :23.06 and :46.83 along with longshot Icelain Diva. She then took the lead and extended it throughout the remainder of the race, eventually stopping the clock by 1:43.18.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Plum Pretty definitely filly looks like a serious Kentucky Oaks contender.
Finishing second was Paloma Mesa, with Formal Plan finishing third and Golden Springs fourth.
UPDATES FROM SUNLAND PARK #1
As today is Sunland Derby day at Sunland Park in New Mexico, I thought that I would post some updates throughout the afternoon as the $800,000 grade III stakes approaches.
Here are the results of the first seven races:
There have been numerous surprising upsets so far today. Attitude E Racer won the New Mexico Breeders' Derby at 24-1, with 25-1 shot Sapello Cantador finishing second and 25-1 Deity fourth. The $1 superfecta paid $188,095.50.
Other longshots to finish first have been Viva Blalock at 12-1 and Mi Domscat at 9-1.
More updates to come!
-Keelerman
Here are the results of the first seven races:
| Race # | First | Second | Third | Winner's Odds |
| Race 1 | Viva Blalock | Chabelita | Vanefuhr | 12-1 |
| Race 2 | Super Sapello | Stickem | Tejano Cat | 9-5 |
| Race 3 | Rascal Who | Roll On Diego | Gotta Move | 9-5 |
| Race 4 | Booger Boo | V. A. S. Sidekick | Brother John D. | 8-1 |
| Race 5 | New Mexico Kid | Tristans Slew | Royal Jester | 5-1 |
| Race 6 | Mi Domscat | Texas Silver | Santo Bueno | 9-1 |
| Race 7 | Attitude E Racer | Sapello Cantador | Cake and Candy | 24-1 |
There have been numerous surprising upsets so far today. Attitude E Racer won the New Mexico Breeders' Derby at 24-1, with 25-1 shot Sapello Cantador finishing second and 25-1 Deity fourth. The $1 superfecta paid $188,095.50.
Other longshots to finish first have been Viva Blalock at 12-1 and Mi Domscat at 9-1.
More updates to come!
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 26, 2011
PANTS ON FIRE WINS THE LOUISIANA DERBY!
Pants On Fire pulled off a remarkable upset in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) this afternoon at Fair Grounds, gamely holding off rivals on both sides to win the one million dollar race by a neck.
Ridden by Rosie Napravnik, Pants On Fire sat just off of the early lead set by 99-1 shot Liondrive. Mucho Macho Man, the heavy favorite, was fourth in the early going. Machen and Elite Alex, also well bet, were far back.
Turning for home Pants On Fire put away Liondrive and opened up a clear advantage. But Mucho Macho Man, 35-1 shot Nehro, and Machen were all flying. It seemed as though Pants On Fire could not possibly hang on, but he did so desperately. Nehro rallied along the inside for second, while Mucho Macho Man finished a disappointing third. Elite Alex came on for fourth. The final time was 1:49.92.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Rosie Napravnik, Pants On Fire sat just off of the early lead set by 99-1 shot Liondrive. Mucho Macho Man, the heavy favorite, was fourth in the early going. Machen and Elite Alex, also well bet, were far back.
Turning for home Pants On Fire put away Liondrive and opened up a clear advantage. But Mucho Macho Man, 35-1 shot Nehro, and Machen were all flying. It seemed as though Pants On Fire could not possibly hang on, but he did so desperately. Nehro rallied along the inside for second, while Mucho Macho Man finished a disappointing third. Elite Alex came on for fourth. The final time was 1:49.92.
-Keelerman
ANIMAL KINGDOM WINS THE SPIRAL STAKES!
Animal Kingdom closed from dead last in the early stages to win the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) by three-quarters of a length over Decisive Moment.
Animal Kingdom was in no hurry early under Alan Garcia, dropping way back as Positive Response, Son of Posse, and Decisive Moment set a blazing pace of :23.57 and :45.51. This rapid pace cause Positive Response and Son of Posse to tire around the far turn, enabling Decisive Moment to take the lead entering the homestretch. But Animal Kingdom was charging home relentlessly on the far outside, and engaged Decisive Moment in a thrilling stretch duel. It looked briefly as if Decisive Moment would hang on for the win, but after helping set such a fast pace understandably tired late.
Animal Kingdom completed the nine furlong race in 1:52.53. It was a long way back to Twinspired, who rallied mildly for third, while Beachcombing finished fourth.
-Keelerman
Animal Kingdom was in no hurry early under Alan Garcia, dropping way back as Positive Response, Son of Posse, and Decisive Moment set a blazing pace of :23.57 and :45.51. This rapid pace cause Positive Response and Son of Posse to tire around the far turn, enabling Decisive Moment to take the lead entering the homestretch. But Animal Kingdom was charging home relentlessly on the far outside, and engaged Decisive Moment in a thrilling stretch duel. It looked briefly as if Decisive Moment would hang on for the win, but after helping set such a fast pace understandably tired late.
Animal Kingdom completed the nine furlong race in 1:52.53. It was a long way back to Twinspired, who rallied mildly for third, while Beachcombing finished fourth.
-Keelerman
SWIFT WARRIOR WINS THE RUSHAWAY!
Swift Warrior proved that he is perhaps better on synthetic tracks than he is on turf when he drew away in the stretch to win Turfway Park's Rushaway Stakes by about two lengths.
Under Javier Castellano, Swift Warrior broke well and was sent to duel with about four other horses for the early lead. He was able to get to the lead and drop to the rail while setting a fairly slow pace. The Ole Gen was not far behind him, with St. Iven, Ocasta, and Swagger Jack right there too. The 6-5 favorite Crimson China was well off the pace, as usual.
Turning for home after fractions of :24.52, :48.92, and 1:13.22, Swift Warrior kicked clear and opened up a four or five length lead. Crimson China was closing rapidly, but was unable to make up the necessary ground. Swift Warrior hit the wire two lengths in front while completing the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:45.73.
The Ole Gen and Swagger Jack, who bumped with each other numerous times in the homestretch, finished second and third respectively.
-Keelerman
Under Javier Castellano, Swift Warrior broke well and was sent to duel with about four other horses for the early lead. He was able to get to the lead and drop to the rail while setting a fairly slow pace. The Ole Gen was not far behind him, with St. Iven, Ocasta, and Swagger Jack right there too. The 6-5 favorite Crimson China was well off the pace, as usual.
Turning for home after fractions of :24.52, :48.92, and 1:13.22, Swift Warrior kicked clear and opened up a four or five length lead. Crimson China was closing rapidly, but was unable to make up the necessary ground. Swift Warrior hit the wire two lengths in front while completing the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:45.73.
The Ole Gen and Swagger Jack, who bumped with each other numerous times in the homestretch, finished second and third respectively.
-Keelerman
DAISY DEVINE WINS THE FAIR GROUNDS OAKS!
Daisy Devine pulled off a mild 9-2 upset in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) this afternoon, taking the lead at the top of the stretch and holding off St. John's River to win the mile and a sixteenth event by a half-length.
Ridden by James Graham, Daisy Devine sat in second for much of the race, just off of a slow pace set by Grandacious. Favored Inglorious was well back, some ten lengths off of the lead.
Turning for home Daisy Devine bid for the lead and passed Grandacious. She then opened up a clear advantage in mid-stretch. St. John's River, at 7-1, closed in quickly at the finish but was unable to get up in time. The final time was 1:44.25.
Finishing third was Niji's Grand Girl, with Inglorious coming home a disappointing fourth. Grandacious tired late to finish fifth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by James Graham, Daisy Devine sat in second for much of the race, just off of a slow pace set by Grandacious. Favored Inglorious was well back, some ten lengths off of the lead.
Turning for home Daisy Devine bid for the lead and passed Grandacious. She then opened up a clear advantage in mid-stretch. St. John's River, at 7-1, closed in quickly at the finish but was unable to get up in time. The final time was 1:44.25.
Finishing third was Niji's Grand Girl, with Inglorious coming home a disappointing fourth. Grandacious tired late to finish fifth.
-Keelerman
SUMMER SOIREE WINS THE BOURBONETTE STAKES!
The Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) looked on paper to have a fairly evenly matched field of fillies. However, this was not the case. As it turned out, Summer Soiree proved herself to be much better than her ten rivals, drawing away in the stretch to win the race by at least seven or eight lengths.
Ridden by Gabriel Saez, the filly broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. She set a fairly slow pace, with longshots Proud House and Readybdancing providing only mild pressure. On the far turn, she began to draw away under no urging as second choice Harlan's Ruby began to rally of the outside. It appeared for a brief moment that Harlan's Ruby might make a race of it, but when her jockey went to the whip while Saez remained motionless it was obvious who the winner would be. Summer Soiree drew off under mild urging in the stretch to win with ease.
Mild longshot Suave Voir Faire rallied for third, with Lilacs and Lace completing the superfecta.
The final time was 1:38.75.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Gabriel Saez, the filly broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. She set a fairly slow pace, with longshots Proud House and Readybdancing providing only mild pressure. On the far turn, she began to draw away under no urging as second choice Harlan's Ruby began to rally of the outside. It appeared for a brief moment that Harlan's Ruby might make a race of it, but when her jockey went to the whip while Saez remained motionless it was obvious who the winner would be. Summer Soiree drew off under mild urging in the stretch to win with ease.
Mild longshot Suave Voir Faire rallied for third, with Lilacs and Lace completing the superfecta.
The final time was 1:38.75.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 26th, 2011
It’s been an exciting morning so far for horse racing fans. As I am typing this, five of the seven Dubai World Cup races have been run, and the most exciting two are still yet to come. The action continues later this afternoon, with the Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes headlining a terrific set of Triple Crown prep races. Because it is already mid-morning, and the races aren’t all that far away, I shan’t make this post very length. Rather, I shall just give my quick thoughts and picks for the numerous fabulous races being run. Enjoy!
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
This looks like Mucho Macho Man’s race. He decisively won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) last time out, and the added distance of this race should only help him. He has good tactical speed and the ability to rate, so he should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. Machen should be sharper this time around than he was when fourth in the Risen Star, but I don’t believe that he’ll improve enough to upset Mucho Macho Man. Elite Alex, third in the Rebel Stakes, should be coming late under Calvin Borel but drew gate twelve. Wilkinson, winner of the LeComte, is bred to run forever but he doesn’t strike me as fast enough to succeed against this caliber at a mile and an eighth. The undefeated Left intrigues me, as do Nacho Business and Nehro.
Keelerman’s picks: Mucho Macho Man, Elite Alex, Machen, Nacho Business
J.R.’s picks: Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Majestic Harbor, Elite Alex
Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
It’s hard not to like Positive Response, who dominated in the local prep for this race, the John Battaglia. He won by seven easy lengths that day, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t duplicate that feat here. Decisive Moment is a logical contender based off of his consistently good form. He was second in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes last year, and although only fifth in the Risen Star (gr. II) last month, he came out of that race with a mild injury. If he runs his best race, he can win. Twinspired won the WEBN Stakes over this track in February, but could only manage a distant fourth in the John Battaglia after a poor trip. Taptowne and Son of Posse, second and third respectively in the John Battaglia, are back again but neither look good enough to win. I really like Animal Kingdom, who was beaten a head last time out going a mile on turf and may be better on synthetics.
Keelerman’s picks: Positive Response, Decisive Moment, Animal Kingdom, Taptowne
J.R.’s picks: Positive Response, Rescind the Trade, Thirtyfirststreet, Animal Kingdom
Hansel Stakes
Ghost is Clear is the morning line favorite, but he is coming off of a tenth place finish in the Southwest Stakes. Getaway Guy is the second choice, but he has been sprinting on turf. I am intrigued by Murjan, who was undefeated in three starts in South America before finishing last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I also really like Chasing Moonlight, who broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs by a head despite a wide trip. The third place finisher that day, Adirondack Express, recently broke his own maiden impressively. However, my pick is Philippe, who is coming off of a victory in a six furlong allowance race at Oaklawn. I have the suspicion that he is going to run the best race of his short career today.
Keelerman’s picks: Philippe, Chasing Moonlight, Getaway Guy, Ghost is Clear
J.R.’s picks: Chasing Moonlight, Ghost is Clear, Philippe, Murjan
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Astrology has found a tough spot to make his 2011 debut. This will be his first start since late November and he has drawn the far outside post position. I really like Sinai’s chances. He ran fifth in the San Vicente Stakes last time out, and both the winner and the third place finisher in that race have returned to win graded stakes races. I am intrigued by Beer Meister, who seems to have an incredible late run, and will be curious to see how Supreme Ruler performs.
Keelerman’s picks: Sinai, Astrology, Beer Meister, Nacho Saint
J.R.’s picks: Nacho Saint, Sinai, Astrology, Supreme Ruler
Other races to watch
The grade III Bourbonette Stakes at Turfway Park for three-year-old fillies has drawn a field of eleven led by Summer Soiree and Harlan’s Ruby. Summer Soiree won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park on January 30th by nearly ten lengths going a mile and a sixteenth and should be right in contention. Harlan’s Ruby won the Valdale Stakes, a local prep for the Bourbonette, last month in impressive fashion. Lilacs and Lace won the California Oaks at Golden Gate Fields on January 1st and should love the Turfway Park synthetic surface.
Another interesting race is the fourth at Fair Grounds on Saturday, a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. The 2-5 morning line favorite is the impressive maiden winner Bind, who will be making his second start. The colt won his debut by 9 ½ lengths and earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He should have no problem winning impressively. However, if he falters, expect Prime Cut to pick up the pieces.
The tenth race at Oaklawn on Saturday is the six furlong Prima Donna Stakes. Gran Lioness, third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) last time out, will likely be sent off as the favorite. Lady Giacamo, who has won four of her six starts, could potentially make things interesting.
The tenth race at Oaklawn on Sunday is also fascinating. The 8-5 morning line favorite is Arienza, a daughter of Horse of the Year Azeri. She has won her only start thus far and figures to extend her record to 2-for-2.
The Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) on the Louisiana Derby undercard has drawn a good field, but it did lose some luster when Kathmanblu didn’t enter. This leaved Inglorious, second to Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) as the favorite. Niji’s Grand Girl is the second choice, but finished third in the Florida Oaks on turf last time out. Grandacious could potentially end up in the mix if she gets loose on the lead, but I suspect that she isn’t good enough to win a race like this.
Finally, there is the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The mile and a sixteenth race has drawn several horses who failed to get into the Spiral Stakes. It’s a very evenly matched field, with the morning line favorite being Swift Warrior, who has been competing fairly well in turf stakes races at Gulfstream Park and Calder. The Ole Gen, winner of a recent allowance race at Oaklawn, is the co-second choice. Crimson China, who raced twice in Europe prior to coming to the United States, recently won a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream and should be closing in late.
That’s all for now! Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
This looks like Mucho Macho Man’s race. He decisively won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) last time out, and the added distance of this race should only help him. He has good tactical speed and the ability to rate, so he should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. Machen should be sharper this time around than he was when fourth in the Risen Star, but I don’t believe that he’ll improve enough to upset Mucho Macho Man. Elite Alex, third in the Rebel Stakes, should be coming late under Calvin Borel but drew gate twelve. Wilkinson, winner of the LeComte, is bred to run forever but he doesn’t strike me as fast enough to succeed against this caliber at a mile and an eighth. The undefeated Left intrigues me, as do Nacho Business and Nehro.
Keelerman’s picks: Mucho Macho Man, Elite Alex, Machen, Nacho Business
J.R.’s picks: Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Majestic Harbor, Elite Alex
Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
It’s hard not to like Positive Response, who dominated in the local prep for this race, the John Battaglia. He won by seven easy lengths that day, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t duplicate that feat here. Decisive Moment is a logical contender based off of his consistently good form. He was second in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes last year, and although only fifth in the Risen Star (gr. II) last month, he came out of that race with a mild injury. If he runs his best race, he can win. Twinspired won the WEBN Stakes over this track in February, but could only manage a distant fourth in the John Battaglia after a poor trip. Taptowne and Son of Posse, second and third respectively in the John Battaglia, are back again but neither look good enough to win. I really like Animal Kingdom, who was beaten a head last time out going a mile on turf and may be better on synthetics.
Keelerman’s picks: Positive Response, Decisive Moment, Animal Kingdom, Taptowne
J.R.’s picks: Positive Response, Rescind the Trade, Thirtyfirststreet, Animal Kingdom
Hansel Stakes
Ghost is Clear is the morning line favorite, but he is coming off of a tenth place finish in the Southwest Stakes. Getaway Guy is the second choice, but he has been sprinting on turf. I am intrigued by Murjan, who was undefeated in three starts in South America before finishing last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I also really like Chasing Moonlight, who broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs by a head despite a wide trip. The third place finisher that day, Adirondack Express, recently broke his own maiden impressively. However, my pick is Philippe, who is coming off of a victory in a six furlong allowance race at Oaklawn. I have the suspicion that he is going to run the best race of his short career today.
Keelerman’s picks: Philippe, Chasing Moonlight, Getaway Guy, Ghost is Clear
J.R.’s picks: Chasing Moonlight, Ghost is Clear, Philippe, Murjan
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Astrology has found a tough spot to make his 2011 debut. This will be his first start since late November and he has drawn the far outside post position. I really like Sinai’s chances. He ran fifth in the San Vicente Stakes last time out, and both the winner and the third place finisher in that race have returned to win graded stakes races. I am intrigued by Beer Meister, who seems to have an incredible late run, and will be curious to see how Supreme Ruler performs.
Keelerman’s picks: Sinai, Astrology, Beer Meister, Nacho Saint
J.R.’s picks: Nacho Saint, Sinai, Astrology, Supreme Ruler
Other races to watch
The grade III Bourbonette Stakes at Turfway Park for three-year-old fillies has drawn a field of eleven led by Summer Soiree and Harlan’s Ruby. Summer Soiree won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park on January 30th by nearly ten lengths going a mile and a sixteenth and should be right in contention. Harlan’s Ruby won the Valdale Stakes, a local prep for the Bourbonette, last month in impressive fashion. Lilacs and Lace won the California Oaks at Golden Gate Fields on January 1st and should love the Turfway Park synthetic surface.
Another interesting race is the fourth at Fair Grounds on Saturday, a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. The 2-5 morning line favorite is the impressive maiden winner Bind, who will be making his second start. The colt won his debut by 9 ½ lengths and earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He should have no problem winning impressively. However, if he falters, expect Prime Cut to pick up the pieces.
The tenth race at Oaklawn on Saturday is the six furlong Prima Donna Stakes. Gran Lioness, third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) last time out, will likely be sent off as the favorite. Lady Giacamo, who has won four of her six starts, could potentially make things interesting.
The tenth race at Oaklawn on Sunday is also fascinating. The 8-5 morning line favorite is Arienza, a daughter of Horse of the Year Azeri. She has won her only start thus far and figures to extend her record to 2-for-2.
The Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) on the Louisiana Derby undercard has drawn a good field, but it did lose some luster when Kathmanblu didn’t enter. This leaved Inglorious, second to Kathmanblu in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) as the favorite. Niji’s Grand Girl is the second choice, but finished third in the Florida Oaks on turf last time out. Grandacious could potentially end up in the mix if she gets loose on the lead, but I suspect that she isn’t good enough to win a race like this.
Finally, there is the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The mile and a sixteenth race has drawn several horses who failed to get into the Spiral Stakes. It’s a very evenly matched field, with the morning line favorite being Swift Warrior, who has been competing fairly well in turf stakes races at Gulfstream Park and Calder. The Ole Gen, winner of a recent allowance race at Oaklawn, is the co-second choice. Crimson China, who raced twice in Europe prior to coming to the United States, recently won a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream and should be closing in late.
That’s all for now! Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
VICTOIRE PISA WINS THE DUBAI WORLD CUP!
Victoire Pisa pulled off an upset in the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup tonight at Meydan Race Course, desperately holding off challengers on all sides to win by a neck.
Ridden by M. Demuro, the four-year-old colt was last in the early going but made a sweeping move approaching the far turn to move into second place. This brilliant ride enabled the colt to take the lead turning for home and hold off all of the other runners. Transcend, in front for much of the race, held on well for second at 40-1. while Monterosso rallied in between horses for third at 50-1. It was a 1-2 sweep for the Japanese runners.
Cape Blanco tired just a bit to finish fourth after looming a serious threat in the stretch. Gio Ponti, making his first start since early November, made a five wide bid for the lead it looked for a moment as though he would win the race, but he flattened out mildly in deep stretch to finish fifth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by M. Demuro, the four-year-old colt was last in the early going but made a sweeping move approaching the far turn to move into second place. This brilliant ride enabled the colt to take the lead turning for home and hold off all of the other runners. Transcend, in front for much of the race, held on well for second at 40-1. while Monterosso rallied in between horses for third at 50-1. It was a 1-2 sweep for the Japanese runners.
Cape Blanco tired just a bit to finish fourth after looming a serious threat in the stretch. Gio Ponti, making his first start since early November, made a five wide bid for the lead it looked for a moment as though he would win the race, but he flattened out mildly in deep stretch to finish fifth.
-Keelerman
REWILDING WINS THE DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC!
Rewilding pulled off the biggest race of his career today at Meydan Race Course, rallying past Rulership in the stretch to win the $5,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic Sponsored by China Guangsha (Group I) by about two lengths.
Ridden by Frankie Dettori, Rewilding was never far off of the pace set by Rulership. Turning for home he made his bid for the lead and burst clear of Rulership, driving away for a decisive victory in 2:29.01. Redwood rallied well for second. Calvados Blues incredibly managed to rally for second despite clipping heels in the homestretch.
Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay, the two American hopefuls, were far back early and never reached contention.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Frankie Dettori, Rewilding was never far off of the pace set by Rulership. Turning for home he made his bid for the lead and burst clear of Rulership, driving away for a decisive victory in 2:29.01. Redwood rallied well for second. Calvados Blues incredibly managed to rally for second despite clipping heels in the homestretch.
Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay, the two American hopefuls, were far back early and never reached contention.
-Keelerman
PRESVIS WINS THE DUBAI DUTY FREE!
Presvis made an incredible last-to-first move in the Dubai Duty Free Sponsored by Dubai Duty Free (Group I), rallying through the field to defeat River Jetez by a neck in a thrilling finish.
Under Ryan Moore, who had never before won a race on Dubai World Cup night, Presvis dropped back to last in the early going and appeared to be in a hopeless situation. However, his jockey somehow guided him through the field and they were just able to get past River Jetez to take the lead in deep stretch.
Wigmore Hall edged out Royal Bench in a photo finish for third. The winner is trained by Luca M. Cumani.
-Keelerman
Under Ryan Moore, who had never before won a race on Dubai World Cup night, Presvis dropped back to last in the early going and appeared to be in a hopeless situation. However, his jockey somehow guided him through the field and they were just able to get past River Jetez to take the lead in deep stretch.
Wigmore Hall edged out Royal Bench in a photo finish for third. The winner is trained by Luca M. Cumani.
-Keelerman
ROCKET MAN WINS THE DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN!
Rocket Man finally succeeded in capturing an international group I event, rallying past Euroears in deep stretch to win the Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (Group I).
Ridden by Felix Coetzee, the the six-year-old gelding by Viscount sat up close on the outside in the early going as the speedy Euroears, the American hopeful, sprinted away to take the lead. Turning for home, Euroears kicked clear under Mike Smith and appeared to be on his way to victory. But Rocket Man, second in this race a year ago, was not going to lose again. He closed resolutely in the homestretch, passing Euroears in deep stretch before drawing away to a 2 1/4 length victory.
The final time was 1:11.28. Sunny King finished third.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Felix Coetzee, the the six-year-old gelding by Viscount sat up close on the outside in the early going as the speedy Euroears, the American hopeful, sprinted away to take the lead. Turning for home, Euroears kicked clear under Mike Smith and appeared to be on his way to victory. But Rocket Man, second in this race a year ago, was not going to lose again. He closed resolutely in the homestretch, passing Euroears in deep stretch before drawing away to a 2 1/4 length victory.
The final time was 1:11.28. Sunny King finished third.
-Keelerman
KHAWLAH WINS THE UAE DERBY!
Khawlah completed an amazing feat today at Meydan, nipping Master of Hounds in the final strides to become the first filly to win the UAE Derby Sponsored by The Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (Group II).
Ridden by Mickael Barzalona, Khawlah sat about mid-pack early on while Xin Xu Lin set the pace. Turning for home, Master of Hounds took a clear lead on the outside and appeared to be on his way to an upset victory. But Khawlah closed relentlessly and got up just in time to win.
Trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the filly had already proven victorious in the UAE Oaks (Group III) and completed a remarkable double by winning the UAE Derby as well. The final time was 1:58.83.
Finishing third was Mahbooba, with Zanzamar fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Mickael Barzalona, Khawlah sat about mid-pack early on while Xin Xu Lin set the pace. Turning for home, Master of Hounds took a clear lead on the outside and appeared to be on his way to an upset victory. But Khawlah closed relentlessly and got up just in time to win.
Trained by Saeed bin Suroor, the filly had already proven victorious in the UAE Oaks (Group III) and completed a remarkable double by winning the UAE Derby as well. The final time was 1:58.83.
Finishing third was Mahbooba, with Zanzamar fourth.
-Keelerman
SKYSURFERS WINS THE GODOLPHIN MILE!
Skysurfers turned in another great race today at Meydan in Dubai, outgaming longshot Mufarrh to win the Godolphin Mile Sponsored by Etisalat (Group II).
Ridden by Frankie Dettori, the five-year-old son of E Dubai sat just off of the early pace set by Conveyance and I Want Revenge. He made his bid for the lead turning for home and just wore down Mufarrh in the final strides to win the $1,000,000 event.
It was Dettori's sixth win in the Godolphin Mile, and trainer Saeed bin Suroor's ninth win. Finishing third was Red Jazz, with Zafeen Speed in fourth. I Want Revenge and Conveyance both tired badly late to finish off the board.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Frankie Dettori, the five-year-old son of E Dubai sat just off of the early pace set by Conveyance and I Want Revenge. He made his bid for the lead turning for home and just wore down Mufarrh in the final strides to win the $1,000,000 event.
It was Dettori's sixth win in the Godolphin Mile, and trainer Saeed bin Suroor's ninth win. Finishing third was Red Jazz, with Zafeen Speed in fourth. I Want Revenge and Conveyance both tired badly late to finish off the board.
-Keelerman
J J THE JET PLANE WINS THE AL QUOZ SPRINT!
J J The Jet Plane won the first of the 2011 Dubai World Cup races, rallying desperately between horses to win a four horse photo finish in the Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored by Emirates NBD (Group II).
Ridden by Bernard Fayd'Herbe, J J The Jet Plane had to squeeze between horses in the stretch and appeared to have no chance at winning, but accelerated gamely in the final strides to edge out War Artist, Better Be The One, and Invincible Ash to win by a head.
The final time was :59.14. The winner, a son of Jet Master, is trained by Michael Houdalakis.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Bernard Fayd'Herbe, J J The Jet Plane had to squeeze between horses in the stretch and appeared to have no chance at winning, but accelerated gamely in the final strides to edge out War Artist, Better Be The One, and Invincible Ash to win by a head.
The final time was :59.14. The winner, a son of Jet Master, is trained by Michael Houdalakis.
-Keelerman
Friday, March 25, 2011
DUBAI WORLD CUP ANALYSIS
Seven races. Ninety-eight horses. $26 million in purses. Those are the basic facts about this year's Dubai World Cup program, where some of the world’s greatest horses will compete in a series of championship races led by the ten million dollar Dubai World Cup.
Normally, I wouldn't discuss races like these during the springtime; for springtime is a time for debating the merits of Triple Crown contenders. But I am making an exception because this is such a huge event. The following are my thoughts and selections for each of the races, along with J.R.'s picks as well. I will be making this fairly brief, for I still have to type up my thoughts on the Louisiana Derby and such, but I thought that it would be fun to have a little change of pace and talk about Dubai for a little while. Enjoy!
Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored by Emirates NBD (Group II)
This turf sprint race—about five furlongs—worth $1,000,000, is one of the most fascinating races on the card. The American hopes are led by Stradivinsky, an eight-year-old gelding who went from being a successful claimer to a grade III stakes winner. Although quite talented, he has unfortunately drawn gate fourteen. If he can overcome it, hats off. Mr. Gruff is in the same boat; he's quick and talented but will break from gate sixteen. He also has to overcome not having raced since May 2010. Quick Enough is another American-based runner in the field. He won the grade III Morvich Handicap last year at Santa Anita Park, and I really do like his chances here. Prohibit has shown stakes-caliber form in the past, but his last race was was disappointing. So I'll pick J J The Jet Plane, who has shown magnificent form during the past year and should be able to work out a perfect trip.
Keelerman's selections: J J The Jet Plane, Prohibit, Stradivinky, Sole Power
J.R.'s selections: Happy Dubai, Stradivinsky, J J The Jet Plane, Quick Enough
Gololphin Mile Sponsored by Etisalat (Group II)
Remember Conveyance? He won the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III), Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and ran second in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last spring. Sent off at 27-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he ran fifteenth after setting a very quick pace. Now, he is among the favorites in the Godolphin Mile in Dubai. He has only had one race since the Kentucky Derby, that being a runner-up finish to Bankable in the Emriates Air Mahab Al Shimaal (Group III) earlier this month going six furlongs. However, I'm not fully convinced that a mile is his best distance and don't believe he will win tomorrow. Instead, I shall go with a longshot in Rileyskeepingfaith, who—after many starts last year going six furlongs—easily scored in the one-mile Dubai Duty Free Zabeel Mile (Group II). The results of that race make me suspect that he is at his best going a mile and will perform admirably here tomorrow. Skysurfers won the one-mile Dubai Firebreak Stakes over the very nice colt Musir, and should be right in the mix. I Want Revenge leads the American colts, but he hasn't returned to the winners’ circle since his breathtaking Wood Memorial victory in 2009. Still, he made a bold run in the Donn Handicap last time out before flattening out and should be sharper today.
Keelerman's selections: Rileyskeepingfaith, Skysurfers, I Want Revenge, Conveyance
J.R.'s selections: Red Jazz, I Want Revenge, Skysurfers, Imbongi
UAE Derby Sponsored by the Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (Group II)
The biggest question here is whether or not any of the runners in this race will ship to Kentucky for the Kentucky Derby in just six weeks. Several of them are nominated to the Triple Crown, so I wouldn't be completely surprised. Among the obvious contenders here are Mahbooba, Khawlah, and Reem. Those three are all fillies, and they have proven to be very good fillies at that. Of the three, I like Khawlah best, as she gamely defeated Mahbooba in the Al Tayer Motors UAE Oaks (Group III) last time out. Mahbooba was the heavy favorite in the Oaks off of a stunning victory in the Etisalat UAE 1,000 Guineas, but was unable to catch Khawlah in her first start beyond a mile. As form Reem, she has proven to be an excellent stakes-caliber filly but doesn't seem to be on the same level as the other two. But despite these quality fillies running in the race, the horse I like best is Splash Point. The son of Street Cry who won the Dubai 2,000 Guineas (Group III) in excellent fashion and may improve with the added distance of today's race. Sweet Ducky is an intriguing contender, and I am very fond of him, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track. I wouldn't toss Utley out either.
Keelerman's selections: Splash Point, Khawlah, Zanzamar, Mahbooba
J.R.'s selections: Zanzamar, Mahbooba, Splash Point, Master of Hounds
Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (Group I)
This is a race in which the American runners should have some influence. Their brigade is led by Kinsale King, winner of this race last year. However, he lost three straight races after that and wasn't even close in two of them. But he resumed his winning ways in a Golden Gate Fields allowance race at six furlong, which he won easily. However, the horse that he barely defeated in last year's Shaheen, Rocket Man, is back for another try. The six-year-old gelding has never won a group I race, but has missed by less than a half-length in four of them. In last year's Shaheen, he lost by just a half-length and is possibly better now than he was then. With a good trip, I expect him to win rather easily. Euroears is obviously a contender based off of his brilliant victory in the Palos Verdes Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita last time out, but the front-running horse will be making his first start over a synthetic track. Dynamic Blitz was impressive in a local prep for this race, but will have to run the race of his life to win.
Keelerman's selections: Rocket Man, Dynamic Blitz, Kinsale King, Dim Sum
J.R.'s selections: Rocket Man, Dim Sum, Euroears, Sunny King
Dubai Duty Free Sponsored by Dubai Duty Free (Group I)
There are a lot of horses capable of winning this race. One of the favorites is Presvis, who nearly overcame a trouble-filled trip in the Emirates Airline Jebel Hatta Stakes (group II) to miss by a neck. However, he ran eleventh in this race a year ago. Wigmore Hall, second in the Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) here in America last year, won the Jebel Hatta in which Presvis lost and should be closing late tomorrow. Mendip has won five of his six starts, but has never raced on turf. Better Than Ever has won fourteen of fifteen races but has been competing in Singapore. Tazeez has won two straight at this distance, but this is a big step up in class. Victor's Cry is the lead American hopeful but is a bit inconsistent. Debussy is a logical contender, but he hasn't won a race since upsetting the Arlington Million (gr. I) last year. Beauty Flash has won three straight, including two group I races, but may not want to go a mile and an eighth. What a great field of horses!
Keelerman's selections: Mendip, Wigmore Hall, Better Than Ever, Victor's Cry
J.R.'s selections: Beauty Flash, Presvis, Wigmore Hall, Tazeez
Dubai Sheema Classic Sponsored by China Guangsha (Group I)
This race lost quite a bit of luster when Snow Fairy scratched, but it's still got plenty of interesting contenders. As I mentioned on a post yesterday, Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay will be continuing their rivalry in this mile-and-a-half event and are among the top contenders. Of the pair, I like Champ Pegasus better here. Dangerous Midge is another contender, but he hasn't started since defeating Champ Pegasus in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) last fall. Redwood has a nice late kick, but I'm not sure if he is good enough to win a race of this caliber. Chinchon won the United Nations Handicap (gr. I) last year over a very nice horse in Winchester, but has finished sixth in both of his starts since then. Al Shemali won the Dubai Duty Free last year, but has not won since then. Rulership has proven to be a solid stakes competitor in Japan and may be a bit overlooked here.
Keelerman's selections: Champ Pegasus, Rulership, Dangerous Midge, Bourbon Bay
J.R.'s selections: Dangerous Midge, Champ Pegasus, Redwood, Rulership
Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline Group (Group I)
This is the biggest race on the card -- the richest race in the world. The Dubai World Cup has drawn a field of fourteen fabulous horses. The American hopefuls are Fly Down, Gio Ponti, and Richard's Kid. Fly Down placed in four grade I races last year, including the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. But he could manage no better than a distant fifth in the Donn Handicap last month. Gio Ponti finished a narrowly beaten fourth in this race last year, but will be making his first start since November tomorrow. Richard's Kid won two grade I races last year, including the rich Pacific Classic, but failed dismally in a Dubai prep for this race.
Other top contenders are Cape Blanco, Victoire Pisa, Musir, Twice Over, and Buena Vista. Cape Blanco showed classic form last year, winning the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group I) by a half-length. He was also brilliant in the Tattersall Millions Irish Champion Stakes (Group I) later that year, defeating the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Twic Over by 5 1/2 lengths. But he has not raced since finishing fourteenth in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe after a rough trip. Victoire Pisa has won two straight races in Japan, including a nose victory of Buena Vista in the Arima Kinen (Group I). Musir has won five of his eight races and has never finished worse than second, but has lost his two preps for this race. Twice Over has long been a good horse, winning the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group I) in 2009 before running third to Zenyatta and Gio Ponti in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He ran tenth in last year's Dubai World Cup, but was only beaten three lengths. He enters the World Cup off of two consecutive wins, in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes and the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (Group II), in which he defeated Musir, Gitano Hernando, and Richard's Kid. Finally, we come to Buena Vista, the brilliant Japanese mare who has proven to be as good as any male in her country. She won the Japan Cup (Group I) last year by a decisive 1 3/4 lengths, but was disqualified and placed second.
There are several fascinating story lines in this year's Dubai World Cup, but the two which I will be paying closest attention to are a pair of earnings records which could potentially fall. Should Buena Vista win the race, it would propel her lifetime earnings to $18,364,499. That would make her the richest horse in the world; a remarkable achievement indeed. Should Gio Ponti win, it would shove his lifetime earnings up to $11,037,800 -- and past Curlin's earnings record for a North American-based runner. Being a huge fan of Curlin, I wish that his earnings record could stand forever. But I am also a huge Gio Ponti fan, and I love to see horses break records. So I will be cheering for Gio Ponti to win the Dubai World Cup in what will likely be his last year of racing, regardless of whom I pick to win.
Keelerman's selections: Buena Vista, Twice Over, Victoire Pisa, Gio Ponti
J.R.'s selections: Victoire Pisa, Twice Over, Cape Blanco, Buena Vista
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Normally, I wouldn't discuss races like these during the springtime; for springtime is a time for debating the merits of Triple Crown contenders. But I am making an exception because this is such a huge event. The following are my thoughts and selections for each of the races, along with J.R.'s picks as well. I will be making this fairly brief, for I still have to type up my thoughts on the Louisiana Derby and such, but I thought that it would be fun to have a little change of pace and talk about Dubai for a little while. Enjoy!
Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored by Emirates NBD (Group II)
This turf sprint race—about five furlongs—worth $1,000,000, is one of the most fascinating races on the card. The American hopes are led by Stradivinsky, an eight-year-old gelding who went from being a successful claimer to a grade III stakes winner. Although quite talented, he has unfortunately drawn gate fourteen. If he can overcome it, hats off. Mr. Gruff is in the same boat; he's quick and talented but will break from gate sixteen. He also has to overcome not having raced since May 2010. Quick Enough is another American-based runner in the field. He won the grade III Morvich Handicap last year at Santa Anita Park, and I really do like his chances here. Prohibit has shown stakes-caliber form in the past, but his last race was was disappointing. So I'll pick J J The Jet Plane, who has shown magnificent form during the past year and should be able to work out a perfect trip.
Keelerman's selections: J J The Jet Plane, Prohibit, Stradivinky, Sole Power
J.R.'s selections: Happy Dubai, Stradivinsky, J J The Jet Plane, Quick Enough
Gololphin Mile Sponsored by Etisalat (Group II)
Remember Conveyance? He won the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III), Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and ran second in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last spring. Sent off at 27-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he ran fifteenth after setting a very quick pace. Now, he is among the favorites in the Godolphin Mile in Dubai. He has only had one race since the Kentucky Derby, that being a runner-up finish to Bankable in the Emriates Air Mahab Al Shimaal (Group III) earlier this month going six furlongs. However, I'm not fully convinced that a mile is his best distance and don't believe he will win tomorrow. Instead, I shall go with a longshot in Rileyskeepingfaith, who—after many starts last year going six furlongs—easily scored in the one-mile Dubai Duty Free Zabeel Mile (Group II). The results of that race make me suspect that he is at his best going a mile and will perform admirably here tomorrow. Skysurfers won the one-mile Dubai Firebreak Stakes over the very nice colt Musir, and should be right in the mix. I Want Revenge leads the American colts, but he hasn't returned to the winners’ circle since his breathtaking Wood Memorial victory in 2009. Still, he made a bold run in the Donn Handicap last time out before flattening out and should be sharper today.
Keelerman's selections: Rileyskeepingfaith, Skysurfers, I Want Revenge, Conveyance
J.R.'s selections: Red Jazz, I Want Revenge, Skysurfers, Imbongi
UAE Derby Sponsored by the Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (Group II)
The biggest question here is whether or not any of the runners in this race will ship to Kentucky for the Kentucky Derby in just six weeks. Several of them are nominated to the Triple Crown, so I wouldn't be completely surprised. Among the obvious contenders here are Mahbooba, Khawlah, and Reem. Those three are all fillies, and they have proven to be very good fillies at that. Of the three, I like Khawlah best, as she gamely defeated Mahbooba in the Al Tayer Motors UAE Oaks (Group III) last time out. Mahbooba was the heavy favorite in the Oaks off of a stunning victory in the Etisalat UAE 1,000 Guineas, but was unable to catch Khawlah in her first start beyond a mile. As form Reem, she has proven to be an excellent stakes-caliber filly but doesn't seem to be on the same level as the other two. But despite these quality fillies running in the race, the horse I like best is Splash Point. The son of Street Cry who won the Dubai 2,000 Guineas (Group III) in excellent fashion and may improve with the added distance of today's race. Sweet Ducky is an intriguing contender, and I am very fond of him, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track. I wouldn't toss Utley out either.
Keelerman's selections: Splash Point, Khawlah, Zanzamar, Mahbooba
J.R.'s selections: Zanzamar, Mahbooba, Splash Point, Master of Hounds
Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (Group I)
This is a race in which the American runners should have some influence. Their brigade is led by Kinsale King, winner of this race last year. However, he lost three straight races after that and wasn't even close in two of them. But he resumed his winning ways in a Golden Gate Fields allowance race at six furlong, which he won easily. However, the horse that he barely defeated in last year's Shaheen, Rocket Man, is back for another try. The six-year-old gelding has never won a group I race, but has missed by less than a half-length in four of them. In last year's Shaheen, he lost by just a half-length and is possibly better now than he was then. With a good trip, I expect him to win rather easily. Euroears is obviously a contender based off of his brilliant victory in the Palos Verdes Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita last time out, but the front-running horse will be making his first start over a synthetic track. Dynamic Blitz was impressive in a local prep for this race, but will have to run the race of his life to win.
Keelerman's selections: Rocket Man, Dynamic Blitz, Kinsale King, Dim Sum
J.R.'s selections: Rocket Man, Dim Sum, Euroears, Sunny King
Dubai Duty Free Sponsored by Dubai Duty Free (Group I)
There are a lot of horses capable of winning this race. One of the favorites is Presvis, who nearly overcame a trouble-filled trip in the Emirates Airline Jebel Hatta Stakes (group II) to miss by a neck. However, he ran eleventh in this race a year ago. Wigmore Hall, second in the Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) here in America last year, won the Jebel Hatta in which Presvis lost and should be closing late tomorrow. Mendip has won five of his six starts, but has never raced on turf. Better Than Ever has won fourteen of fifteen races but has been competing in Singapore. Tazeez has won two straight at this distance, but this is a big step up in class. Victor's Cry is the lead American hopeful but is a bit inconsistent. Debussy is a logical contender, but he hasn't won a race since upsetting the Arlington Million (gr. I) last year. Beauty Flash has won three straight, including two group I races, but may not want to go a mile and an eighth. What a great field of horses!
Keelerman's selections: Mendip, Wigmore Hall, Better Than Ever, Victor's Cry
J.R.'s selections: Beauty Flash, Presvis, Wigmore Hall, Tazeez
Dubai Sheema Classic Sponsored by China Guangsha (Group I)
This race lost quite a bit of luster when Snow Fairy scratched, but it's still got plenty of interesting contenders. As I mentioned on a post yesterday, Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay will be continuing their rivalry in this mile-and-a-half event and are among the top contenders. Of the pair, I like Champ Pegasus better here. Dangerous Midge is another contender, but he hasn't started since defeating Champ Pegasus in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) last fall. Redwood has a nice late kick, but I'm not sure if he is good enough to win a race of this caliber. Chinchon won the United Nations Handicap (gr. I) last year over a very nice horse in Winchester, but has finished sixth in both of his starts since then. Al Shemali won the Dubai Duty Free last year, but has not won since then. Rulership has proven to be a solid stakes competitor in Japan and may be a bit overlooked here.
Keelerman's selections: Champ Pegasus, Rulership, Dangerous Midge, Bourbon Bay
J.R.'s selections: Dangerous Midge, Champ Pegasus, Redwood, Rulership
Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline Group (Group I)
This is the biggest race on the card -- the richest race in the world. The Dubai World Cup has drawn a field of fourteen fabulous horses. The American hopefuls are Fly Down, Gio Ponti, and Richard's Kid. Fly Down placed in four grade I races last year, including the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. But he could manage no better than a distant fifth in the Donn Handicap last month. Gio Ponti finished a narrowly beaten fourth in this race last year, but will be making his first start since November tomorrow. Richard's Kid won two grade I races last year, including the rich Pacific Classic, but failed dismally in a Dubai prep for this race.
Other top contenders are Cape Blanco, Victoire Pisa, Musir, Twice Over, and Buena Vista. Cape Blanco showed classic form last year, winning the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group I) by a half-length. He was also brilliant in the Tattersall Millions Irish Champion Stakes (Group I) later that year, defeating the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Twic Over by 5 1/2 lengths. But he has not raced since finishing fourteenth in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe after a rough trip. Victoire Pisa has won two straight races in Japan, including a nose victory of Buena Vista in the Arima Kinen (Group I). Musir has won five of his eight races and has never finished worse than second, but has lost his two preps for this race. Twice Over has long been a good horse, winning the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group I) in 2009 before running third to Zenyatta and Gio Ponti in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He ran tenth in last year's Dubai World Cup, but was only beaten three lengths. He enters the World Cup off of two consecutive wins, in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes and the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (Group II), in which he defeated Musir, Gitano Hernando, and Richard's Kid. Finally, we come to Buena Vista, the brilliant Japanese mare who has proven to be as good as any male in her country. She won the Japan Cup (Group I) last year by a decisive 1 3/4 lengths, but was disqualified and placed second.
There are several fascinating story lines in this year's Dubai World Cup, but the two which I will be paying closest attention to are a pair of earnings records which could potentially fall. Should Buena Vista win the race, it would propel her lifetime earnings to $18,364,499. That would make her the richest horse in the world; a remarkable achievement indeed. Should Gio Ponti win, it would shove his lifetime earnings up to $11,037,800 -- and past Curlin's earnings record for a North American-based runner. Being a huge fan of Curlin, I wish that his earnings record could stand forever. But I am also a huge Gio Ponti fan, and I love to see horses break records. So I will be cheering for Gio Ponti to win the Dubai World Cup in what will likely be his last year of racing, regardless of whom I pick to win.
Keelerman's selections: Buena Vista, Twice Over, Victoire Pisa, Gio Ponti
J.R.'s selections: Victoire Pisa, Twice Over, Cape Blanco, Buena Vista
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 25th, 2011
The Factor, Caleb's Posse, Quantum Miss, Dance City, and Bandbox were among the three-year-olds who turned in impressive performances last weekend. Sway Away, Cal Nation, and J P's Gusto were among those who did not. Elite Alex, Alternation, Glint, and Dreaminofthewin were among those who chose to wait for another day.
All in all, it was a fascinating weekend. Here are my recaps of all the best racing action.
FEATURE RACE RECAP: The Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
The Rebel Stakes has been won by some very fine horses in the past. First run in 1961, Temperence Hill, Sunny's Halo, Demons Begone, Pine Bluff, Victory Gallop, Smarty Jones, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Lookin at Lucky are among the many good horses to have won the race. Last year Lookin at Lucky used it as a stepping stone en route to honors as champion 3yo male of 2010. Only time will tell if The Factor is as good as the above-mentioned runners, but he certainly looks talented enough.
Sent off as the favorite, The Factor was expected to win the mile and a sixteenth race. He had already earned two consecutive triple-digit Beyer speed figures and had shown a tremendous amount of speed. But he had never raced beyond seven furlongs -- could he carry his speed around two turns?
The Factor answered that question emphatically: yes.
In the field of nine -- reduced from thirteen due to the scratches of Alternation, Dreaminofthewin, Elite Alex, and Glint -- The Factor broke quickest of all. Under Martin Garcia, the Bob Baffert-trainee went straight to the lead and led by 2 1/2 lengths after an opening quarter mile in a quick :23 1/5. Sitting second was longshot Saratoga Red, with Archarcharch tracking him on the inside. He was followed by J P's Gusto, who was two lengths clear of Bluegrass Jam, Picko's Pride, and Caleb's Posse. Sway Away was eighth, eleven lengths off the pace, and J W Blue was last off all.
The Factor continued to set a hot pace, rattling off a half-mile in :46 3/5 and three-quarters in 1:10 4/5. The positions behind him remained relatively unchanged, but the remainder of the field was beginning to bunch up.
Five-sixteenths from home, Saratoga Red was still closest to the favorite, with Archarcharch and J P's Gutso looming behind him. But it was Caleb's Posse who was coming on strongest, rallying furiously in the five path. For a brief moment, it appeared as though The Factor would have competition in the stretch -- but that moment was indeed brief. The Factor found another gear at the top of the stretch, and powered away from Caleb's Posse. With an eighth of a mile to go he was three lengths in front, and he extended that lead to 6 1/4 lengths at the wire. He completed the race in 1:42.19. It was a truly dominating performance, one which has likely secured him a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Give credit to Caleb's Posse, who ran second at 24.80-1 despite going very wide on the far turn. Archarcharch rallied mildly for third, while Saratoga Red finished fourth in what was only his third start.
The complete results were. . .
1 The Factor
2 Caleb's Posse
3 Archarcharch
4 Saratoga Red
5 J W Blue
6 Sway Away
7 J P's Gusto
8 Picko's Pride
9 Bluegrass Jam
My selections were:
1 Picko’s Pride
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Alternation
4 The Factor
5 Archarcharch
6 Sway Away
7 Saratoga Red
8 J W Blue
9 Caleb’s Posse
10 Bluegrass Jam
And J.R.'s picks were:
1 J P’s Gusto
2 Sway Away
3 J W Blue
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Alternation
7 The Factor
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 Bluegrass Jam
10 Saratoga Red
It's safe to say that neither of us had any idea what we were doing! We both greatly underestimated both The Factor and Caleb's Posse's talent. Hopefully we'll do better next week!
OTHER RACE RESULTS
The other major stakes race for three-year-old colts run last weekend was the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park. The impressive winner was the odds-on favorite Bandbox, who tracked the early pace before gradually drawing away for an authoritative 1 1/2 lengths triumph. However, I got the impression watching the race that it could have been more.
The early pace was set by Bandbox, who opened a daylight lead while running fractions of :23.59 and :46.49. Bandbox was sitting in second, with Tap Star third, Concealed Identity fourth, and Ram last of all. The field continued along in this order until after three-quarters in 1:11.74. Then Bandbox made his bid for the lead and took it passing the eighth pole. Rush Now gamely gave chase, but was unable to stay with the winner, who completed the one-mile event in 1:37.25. Although the Kentucky Derby is unlikely, the Preakness Stakes is a possibility for the winner. No Easy Answer finished third, five lengths behind Rush Now.
The complete results were:
1 Bandbox
2 Rush Now
3 No Easy Answer
4 Tap Star
5 Concealed Identity
6 Ram
My pick was Bandbox; J.R.'s was Tap Star. The results of this race further bolstered my position atop the standings in our Handicapping Contest. J.R. is going to have to do some serious handicapping over the next several weeks if he intends to catch up!
Moving on, we come to the grade III Cicada Stakes at Aqueduct. A six furlong race for three-year-old fillies, the favorite was Quantum Miss. She had impressed everyone with a sixteen-length victory in the Blue Mountain Stakes at Penn National in late 2010, but ran a disappointing fifth of sixth in the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) in January. Her performance was unexplainable, but bettors chose to give her a chance to redeem herself in the Cicada. She did so, but not by much. After breaking quickest of all, she became involved with a duel for the early lead with Roman Treasure. The pair ran an opening quarter mile in :22.49, after which Quantum Miss began to inch away. Following a half-mile in a quick :46.07, she led by a half-length. In the homestretch she drew off to a two-length advantage and appeared to be home free. But Coax Liberty, the co-third choice, was closing ground rapidly. Four lengths off the pace at the eighth pole, she drove home gamely but could not get past Quantum Miss, who held on for a half-length victory in 1:11.99. It was 3 3/4 lengths further back to Dream, who just edged out Roman Treasure for third. In Step, Wild About Sonny, and Full Moon Blues trailed the field.
A variety of allowances races at Gulfstream Park also yielded interesting results. On March 16th, there was a 6-1/2 furlong starter allowance race for three-year-olds. The odds-on favorite was Royal Currier, a stakes winning colt who had most recently run second to Fort Hughes in the Jimmy Winkfield. Regal Strike took the early lead and set a quick pace which included a half-mile in :44.94. He led into the stretch, but Royal Currier charged home under Elvis Trujillo to win the race by 1 1/4 lengths in a sharp 1:15.64. Second choice Passthepasta Plesa fallied late for second.
The next interesting allowance race was on March 19th. A one-mile race for three-year-olds, the odds-on favorite was impressive maiden winner Cal Nation. Bowman's Causeway, fourth-place finisher in the Fountain of Youth, was the second choice. Cal Nation's stablemate Dance City was also well bet.
Dance City broke well and was sent to the lead. He dueled with longshot I'm Steppin' it Up through testing fractions of :23.75 and :46.71. Cal Nation was right behind them in third, although a bit wide. Bowman's Causeway was sitting fourth.
Turning for home, Cal Nation made his bid for the lead and led by a head passing the eighth pole. But despite the fast pace, Dance City wasn't done yet. He gamely came back at his more heralded stablemate and won by a nose. Cal Nation finished second, with Bowman's Causeway 1 3/4 lengths further back in third. As if further emphasizing how good Dance City's performance was, the horse he dueled with early, I'm Steppin' It Up, faded to finish last. The Derby seems out of the question for the top two finishers, but it has been confirmed that Bowman's Causeway's next start will come in the Florida Derby, where he could get one more chance at making the Derby field.
Finally, we come to a March 20th allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream. For three-year-old colts, the slight favorites were the coupled entry of Bear's Chill and Rockin Heat. However, Suntracer pulled off a 17-1 upset in the twelve horse field, rallying furiously to win the mile and a sixteenth turf race by 1 1/2 lengths over fellow longshot Fort Larned. Bear's Chill finished a disappointing fourth, with Rockin Heat coming home ninth. Although I doubt that any of these colts will end up in a Triple Crown race, you never can tell where the next great horse will come from. . .
That's all for now! I will be posting my thoughts on tomorrow's great racing action either later this afternoon or early tomorrow morning. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
All in all, it was a fascinating weekend. Here are my recaps of all the best racing action.
FEATURE RACE RECAP: The Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
The Rebel Stakes has been won by some very fine horses in the past. First run in 1961, Temperence Hill, Sunny's Halo, Demons Begone, Pine Bluff, Victory Gallop, Smarty Jones, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Lookin at Lucky are among the many good horses to have won the race. Last year Lookin at Lucky used it as a stepping stone en route to honors as champion 3yo male of 2010. Only time will tell if The Factor is as good as the above-mentioned runners, but he certainly looks talented enough.
Sent off as the favorite, The Factor was expected to win the mile and a sixteenth race. He had already earned two consecutive triple-digit Beyer speed figures and had shown a tremendous amount of speed. But he had never raced beyond seven furlongs -- could he carry his speed around two turns?
The Factor answered that question emphatically: yes.
In the field of nine -- reduced from thirteen due to the scratches of Alternation, Dreaminofthewin, Elite Alex, and Glint -- The Factor broke quickest of all. Under Martin Garcia, the Bob Baffert-trainee went straight to the lead and led by 2 1/2 lengths after an opening quarter mile in a quick :23 1/5. Sitting second was longshot Saratoga Red, with Archarcharch tracking him on the inside. He was followed by J P's Gusto, who was two lengths clear of Bluegrass Jam, Picko's Pride, and Caleb's Posse. Sway Away was eighth, eleven lengths off the pace, and J W Blue was last off all.
The Factor continued to set a hot pace, rattling off a half-mile in :46 3/5 and three-quarters in 1:10 4/5. The positions behind him remained relatively unchanged, but the remainder of the field was beginning to bunch up.
Five-sixteenths from home, Saratoga Red was still closest to the favorite, with Archarcharch and J P's Gutso looming behind him. But it was Caleb's Posse who was coming on strongest, rallying furiously in the five path. For a brief moment, it appeared as though The Factor would have competition in the stretch -- but that moment was indeed brief. The Factor found another gear at the top of the stretch, and powered away from Caleb's Posse. With an eighth of a mile to go he was three lengths in front, and he extended that lead to 6 1/4 lengths at the wire. He completed the race in 1:42.19. It was a truly dominating performance, one which has likely secured him a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Give credit to Caleb's Posse, who ran second at 24.80-1 despite going very wide on the far turn. Archarcharch rallied mildly for third, while Saratoga Red finished fourth in what was only his third start.
The complete results were. . .
1 The Factor
2 Caleb's Posse
3 Archarcharch
4 Saratoga Red
5 J W Blue
6 Sway Away
7 J P's Gusto
8 Picko's Pride
9 Bluegrass Jam
My selections were:
1 Picko’s Pride
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Alternation
4 The Factor
5 Archarcharch
6 Sway Away
7 Saratoga Red
8 J W Blue
9 Caleb’s Posse
10 Bluegrass Jam
And J.R.'s picks were:
1 J P’s Gusto
2 Sway Away
3 J W Blue
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Alternation
7 The Factor
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 Bluegrass Jam
10 Saratoga Red
It's safe to say that neither of us had any idea what we were doing! We both greatly underestimated both The Factor and Caleb's Posse's talent. Hopefully we'll do better next week!
OTHER RACE RESULTS
The other major stakes race for three-year-old colts run last weekend was the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park. The impressive winner was the odds-on favorite Bandbox, who tracked the early pace before gradually drawing away for an authoritative 1 1/2 lengths triumph. However, I got the impression watching the race that it could have been more.
The early pace was set by Bandbox, who opened a daylight lead while running fractions of :23.59 and :46.49. Bandbox was sitting in second, with Tap Star third, Concealed Identity fourth, and Ram last of all. The field continued along in this order until after three-quarters in 1:11.74. Then Bandbox made his bid for the lead and took it passing the eighth pole. Rush Now gamely gave chase, but was unable to stay with the winner, who completed the one-mile event in 1:37.25. Although the Kentucky Derby is unlikely, the Preakness Stakes is a possibility for the winner. No Easy Answer finished third, five lengths behind Rush Now.
The complete results were:
1 Bandbox
2 Rush Now
3 No Easy Answer
4 Tap Star
5 Concealed Identity
6 Ram
My pick was Bandbox; J.R.'s was Tap Star. The results of this race further bolstered my position atop the standings in our Handicapping Contest. J.R. is going to have to do some serious handicapping over the next several weeks if he intends to catch up!
Moving on, we come to the grade III Cicada Stakes at Aqueduct. A six furlong race for three-year-old fillies, the favorite was Quantum Miss. She had impressed everyone with a sixteen-length victory in the Blue Mountain Stakes at Penn National in late 2010, but ran a disappointing fifth of sixth in the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) in January. Her performance was unexplainable, but bettors chose to give her a chance to redeem herself in the Cicada. She did so, but not by much. After breaking quickest of all, she became involved with a duel for the early lead with Roman Treasure. The pair ran an opening quarter mile in :22.49, after which Quantum Miss began to inch away. Following a half-mile in a quick :46.07, she led by a half-length. In the homestretch she drew off to a two-length advantage and appeared to be home free. But Coax Liberty, the co-third choice, was closing ground rapidly. Four lengths off the pace at the eighth pole, she drove home gamely but could not get past Quantum Miss, who held on for a half-length victory in 1:11.99. It was 3 3/4 lengths further back to Dream, who just edged out Roman Treasure for third. In Step, Wild About Sonny, and Full Moon Blues trailed the field.
A variety of allowances races at Gulfstream Park also yielded interesting results. On March 16th, there was a 6-1/2 furlong starter allowance race for three-year-olds. The odds-on favorite was Royal Currier, a stakes winning colt who had most recently run second to Fort Hughes in the Jimmy Winkfield. Regal Strike took the early lead and set a quick pace which included a half-mile in :44.94. He led into the stretch, but Royal Currier charged home under Elvis Trujillo to win the race by 1 1/4 lengths in a sharp 1:15.64. Second choice Passthepasta Plesa fallied late for second.
The next interesting allowance race was on March 19th. A one-mile race for three-year-olds, the odds-on favorite was impressive maiden winner Cal Nation. Bowman's Causeway, fourth-place finisher in the Fountain of Youth, was the second choice. Cal Nation's stablemate Dance City was also well bet.
Dance City broke well and was sent to the lead. He dueled with longshot I'm Steppin' it Up through testing fractions of :23.75 and :46.71. Cal Nation was right behind them in third, although a bit wide. Bowman's Causeway was sitting fourth.
Turning for home, Cal Nation made his bid for the lead and led by a head passing the eighth pole. But despite the fast pace, Dance City wasn't done yet. He gamely came back at his more heralded stablemate and won by a nose. Cal Nation finished second, with Bowman's Causeway 1 3/4 lengths further back in third. As if further emphasizing how good Dance City's performance was, the horse he dueled with early, I'm Steppin' It Up, faded to finish last. The Derby seems out of the question for the top two finishers, but it has been confirmed that Bowman's Causeway's next start will come in the Florida Derby, where he could get one more chance at making the Derby field.
Finally, we come to a March 20th allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream. For three-year-old colts, the slight favorites were the coupled entry of Bear's Chill and Rockin Heat. However, Suntracer pulled off a 17-1 upset in the twelve horse field, rallying furiously to win the mile and a sixteenth turf race by 1 1/2 lengths over fellow longshot Fort Larned. Bear's Chill finished a disappointing fourth, with Rockin Heat coming home ninth. Although I doubt that any of these colts will end up in a Triple Crown race, you never can tell where the next great horse will come from. . .
That's all for now! I will be posting my thoughts on tomorrow's great racing action either later this afternoon or early tomorrow morning. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
AN IMAGINARY MORNING AT LANE'S END FARM
The sun rises slowly over the bluegrass, bathing its valleys with brilliant rays of sunlight. As the early morning dew begins to evaporate, someone is stirring in the stallion barn at Lane's End Farm. That someone is Curlin, two-time Horse of the Year with victories in the Preakness, Dubai World Cup, and Breeders' Cup Classic on his fabulous resume. But perhaps his greatest achievement was his earnings record: during his career he banked $10,501,800, a record for horses that have raced in North America.
As the sun peeps through his stall window, Curlin awakens. His eyes open; and for a moment he is content. In his dreams, he had just won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe by 19 3/4 lengths over Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, and Tiago.
Then a pang of worry strikes his heart; worry which soon turns to dread. He has remembered what day it is. It is March 26th, 2011.
With great haste, the champion calls for his father—the esteemed and renowned Smart Strike—to awaken. However, the old man is already awake. He has been awake for a while now, anticipating Curlin's arise. He replies to his son reassuringly; gaily informing him that he has nothing to worry despite the fact that Smart Strike himself is filled with anxiety.
By this time, their early morning conversation has raised several other stallions from their slumber; among the newly-awoken horses is A.P. Indy. The unchallenged king of the farm, he is not at all pleased at the early hour in which he has been awoken. Like Curlin, he had been having pleasant dreams too; his revolving around defeating Arazi in the Kentucky Derby. He is about to give Curlin and Smart Strike a piece of his mind when he too remembers what day it is. Suddenly he is wide awake and in action. He quickly exits his stall and heads for the television, beckoning Curlin and Smart Strike to follow suit.
However, Quality Road has beaten him to the punch. The young boy has been awake all night worrying about the coming day, and now that it is finally here he is eager to get it over with. With speed equal to what he had displayed on the racetrack, he has turned on television and tuned into HRTV.
All of the other stallions gather around Quality Road and make themselves confortable, for they will be in front of the TV for several hours this morning. The only one not among the group is After Market, who has been elected to prepare breakfast.
However, Curlin is not hungry. He is too upset to eat, even when After Market offers him his favorite dish. Smart Strike informs Curlin that he must eat his breakfast and accept what is coming like a stallion. Curlin reluctantly chokes down a few bites.
Now the broadcast for which they have been waiting has begun. Quality Road inches closer to the TV and blocks Rock Hard Ten's view; the latter pulls the former back into place. Curlin covers his eyes. He can't look. Smart Strike tells him to relax and at least enjoy the early part of the telecast.
"Welcome to HRTV’s coverage of the 2011 Dubai World Cup, a series of seven races worth an incredible twenty-six million dollars capped off by the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup at a mile and a quarter. There are numerous fascinating stories unfolding here at Meydan Race Course today, but perhaps none more intriguing than Gio Ponti's quest to surpass Curlin's North American earnings record. . ."
Several stallions start screaming for someone to mute the TV, but no one can find the remote. Thus Quality Road turns off the television.
After several minutes off searching, they discover that Aragorn has been sitting on the remote. They quickly turn the TV back on and continue watching.
Throughout the morning, anxiety mounts as race after race is run. One can feel the apprehension in the air. Pleasantly Perfect tries to ease Curlin's worry by reminding him of how hard it is to win the Dubai World Cup, and that the chances of Gio Ponti winning are quite small. But Curlin is inconsolable.
It is now just ten minutes to post time for the World Cup. In just a few more minutes, they will know if Curlin is still North America's richest race horse. Smart Strike proudly reminds his son that even if Gio Ponti wins the World Cup, Curlin will still be the first North American-based runner to break ten million in earnings. But Curlin does not reply.
In an attempt to lighten the atmosphere and help pass those long ten minutes, Mineshaft suggests that they all try and pick the winner of the race. This idea is met with feigned enthusiasm to try and get Curlin's to think about something other than the earnings record. They all agree that Mineshaft's idea is fabulous, and so they grab their sweat-covered past performance sheet and start picking names. A.P. Indy chooses Cape Blanco. Mineshaft chooses his son Fly Down. Likewise, Lemon Drop Kid selects his son Richard's Kid. Aragorn goes with fellow Ireland-bred Prince Bishop. Candy Ride picks Victoire Pisa. Smart Strike selects Buena Vista. Belong to Me refuses to pick.
Finally, it is Curlin's turn to choose. His mind wanders back and forth between the various entrants; beads of sweat appear on his face as his eyes glide over the name Gio Ponti. Suddenly, it is obvious whom he should select.
"I pick Gio Ponti."
Smart Strike's jaw drops. Quality Road gasps. Rock Hard Ten chokes on his drink. A.P. Indy wonders if his old age had affected his hearing.
The questions begin to fly. Curlin answers with a logical explanation:
"My record can't stand forever, and if it has to be broken I would like to have Gio Ponti do it. He has had the career of a great horse, and if he can beat this world-class field, then he is worthy of succeeding me."
A pause ensues as the stallions mull over this answer. Then Smart Strike steps forward.
"I'm proud of you, son."
And that was all that was said. The gloomy atmosphere evaporates and the room lightens. Suddenly, the room seems sunnier than it did before. Now all of the stallions are content; laughing and joking with each other as the horses load into the gate for the Dubai World Cup. Pleasantly Perfect jokes about how easy it is to win the World Cup, and that Gio Ponti should be able to win by twenty easily. Curlin laughs at this, and all of a sudden he is hungry.
The last horse enters the starting gate and all activity ceases, for all of the stallions’ eyes are riveted to the television screen. Although no one speaks, they all are thinking the same thing:
"Come on Gio! Win one for America!"
-Keelerman
As the sun peeps through his stall window, Curlin awakens. His eyes open; and for a moment he is content. In his dreams, he had just won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe by 19 3/4 lengths over Raven's Pass, Henrythenavigator, and Tiago.
Then a pang of worry strikes his heart; worry which soon turns to dread. He has remembered what day it is. It is March 26th, 2011.
With great haste, the champion calls for his father—the esteemed and renowned Smart Strike—to awaken. However, the old man is already awake. He has been awake for a while now, anticipating Curlin's arise. He replies to his son reassuringly; gaily informing him that he has nothing to worry despite the fact that Smart Strike himself is filled with anxiety.
By this time, their early morning conversation has raised several other stallions from their slumber; among the newly-awoken horses is A.P. Indy. The unchallenged king of the farm, he is not at all pleased at the early hour in which he has been awoken. Like Curlin, he had been having pleasant dreams too; his revolving around defeating Arazi in the Kentucky Derby. He is about to give Curlin and Smart Strike a piece of his mind when he too remembers what day it is. Suddenly he is wide awake and in action. He quickly exits his stall and heads for the television, beckoning Curlin and Smart Strike to follow suit.
However, Quality Road has beaten him to the punch. The young boy has been awake all night worrying about the coming day, and now that it is finally here he is eager to get it over with. With speed equal to what he had displayed on the racetrack, he has turned on television and tuned into HRTV.
All of the other stallions gather around Quality Road and make themselves confortable, for they will be in front of the TV for several hours this morning. The only one not among the group is After Market, who has been elected to prepare breakfast.
However, Curlin is not hungry. He is too upset to eat, even when After Market offers him his favorite dish. Smart Strike informs Curlin that he must eat his breakfast and accept what is coming like a stallion. Curlin reluctantly chokes down a few bites.
Now the broadcast for which they have been waiting has begun. Quality Road inches closer to the TV and blocks Rock Hard Ten's view; the latter pulls the former back into place. Curlin covers his eyes. He can't look. Smart Strike tells him to relax and at least enjoy the early part of the telecast.
"Welcome to HRTV’s coverage of the 2011 Dubai World Cup, a series of seven races worth an incredible twenty-six million dollars capped off by the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup at a mile and a quarter. There are numerous fascinating stories unfolding here at Meydan Race Course today, but perhaps none more intriguing than Gio Ponti's quest to surpass Curlin's North American earnings record. . ."
Several stallions start screaming for someone to mute the TV, but no one can find the remote. Thus Quality Road turns off the television.
After several minutes off searching, they discover that Aragorn has been sitting on the remote. They quickly turn the TV back on and continue watching.
Throughout the morning, anxiety mounts as race after race is run. One can feel the apprehension in the air. Pleasantly Perfect tries to ease Curlin's worry by reminding him of how hard it is to win the Dubai World Cup, and that the chances of Gio Ponti winning are quite small. But Curlin is inconsolable.
It is now just ten minutes to post time for the World Cup. In just a few more minutes, they will know if Curlin is still North America's richest race horse. Smart Strike proudly reminds his son that even if Gio Ponti wins the World Cup, Curlin will still be the first North American-based runner to break ten million in earnings. But Curlin does not reply.
In an attempt to lighten the atmosphere and help pass those long ten minutes, Mineshaft suggests that they all try and pick the winner of the race. This idea is met with feigned enthusiasm to try and get Curlin's to think about something other than the earnings record. They all agree that Mineshaft's idea is fabulous, and so they grab their sweat-covered past performance sheet and start picking names. A.P. Indy chooses Cape Blanco. Mineshaft chooses his son Fly Down. Likewise, Lemon Drop Kid selects his son Richard's Kid. Aragorn goes with fellow Ireland-bred Prince Bishop. Candy Ride picks Victoire Pisa. Smart Strike selects Buena Vista. Belong to Me refuses to pick.
Finally, it is Curlin's turn to choose. His mind wanders back and forth between the various entrants; beads of sweat appear on his face as his eyes glide over the name Gio Ponti. Suddenly, it is obvious whom he should select.
"I pick Gio Ponti."
Smart Strike's jaw drops. Quality Road gasps. Rock Hard Ten chokes on his drink. A.P. Indy wonders if his old age had affected his hearing.
The questions begin to fly. Curlin answers with a logical explanation:
"My record can't stand forever, and if it has to be broken I would like to have Gio Ponti do it. He has had the career of a great horse, and if he can beat this world-class field, then he is worthy of succeeding me."
A pause ensues as the stallions mull over this answer. Then Smart Strike steps forward.
"I'm proud of you, son."
And that was all that was said. The gloomy atmosphere evaporates and the room lightens. Suddenly, the room seems sunnier than it did before. Now all of the stallions are content; laughing and joking with each other as the horses load into the gate for the Dubai World Cup. Pleasantly Perfect jokes about how easy it is to win the World Cup, and that Gio Ponti should be able to win by twenty easily. Curlin laughs at this, and all of a sudden he is hungry.
The last horse enters the starting gate and all activity ceases, for all of the stallions’ eyes are riveted to the television screen. Although no one speaks, they all are thinking the same thing:
"Come on Gio! Win one for America!"
-Keelerman
Thursday, March 24, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- March 24th, 2011
1. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
It's hard to believe that the Wood Memorial is in just nine days. As of right now, his toughest competition will likely come from Jaycito, Norman Asbjornson, and Toby's Corner. It will be interesting to see how Jaycito stacks up against him.
2. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed a half-mile in :47.55 this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center in preparation for the Florida Derby on April 3rd. It will be a major test for this colt. Should he win – and barring a 124 Beyer Speed Figure by Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial -- he will return to the top of my list.
3. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Kwon Cho
Looks like the favorite for the upcoming Santa Anita Derby. Seeing how decisively he defeated his rivals in the San Felipe Stakes, I doubt that any of them will pose much of a threat to him when they meet him again in April. This colt is legitimate.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Moving this colt back up on a hunch that he is going to keep improving and run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May. The Louisiana Derby will tell us more.
5. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Recorded his first workout since the Fountain of Youth on March 13th, breezing a half-mile in :48.90. He could be talented enough to win the Kentucky Derby on the front end, but I would like to see him rate off the pace in the Florida Derby.
6. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
Breezed five furlongs at Palm Meadows in 1:02 2/5 on March 20th. I expect that he will have one more breeze – perhaps at a half-mile – prior to the Florida Derby.
7. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His final Derby prep will probably come in the Florida Derby. It will be interesting to see if he can handle Soldat and To Honor and Serve. If he does, expect him to shoot into the top five on everyone's Derby lists.
8. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
His Rebel Stakes victory was dominating, impressive, and fast. He was never in danger of being defeated. He’s proven he can carry his incredible speed around two turns, but a mile and a quarter is another question.
9. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
The current plan is to run this colt in the Wood Memorial against Uncle Mo. He would have to improve considerably in his second start of the year to have any chance at defeating the champion, but win or lose it should set him up nicely for the Derby.
10. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed a slow half-mile in :50.90 at Palm Meadows on March 19th. He should be among the favorites in the Blue Grass Stakes next month, especially since he ran so well in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity there at Keeneland last year.
11. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I love the fact that he scratched from the Rebel Stakes to join the Louisiana Derby field. He was just going to be up against too much in the Rebel -- breaking from an outside post position, trying to defeat The Factor -- the Louisiana Derby should be a much easier spot.
12. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm wondering which final Derby prep race this colt will start in. It won't be in the Wood Memorial against stablemate Uncle Mo. It won't be in the Florida Derby against stablemate Stay Thirsty. He wasn't entered in the Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby, or Spiral Stakes. I highly doubt that he will ship to Santa Anita for their Derby. This leaves the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby -- which will he run in?
13. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
He defeated Positive Response and Comma to the Top in the El Camino Real Derby. Posistive Response comes back and dominates in the John Battaglia. Comma to the Top takes the lead in the San Felipe before finishing a decent fourth. Hmm. . .
14. Anthony’s Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
Worked a half-mile in :46 4/5 on March 20th at Hollywood Park, by far the fastest four-furlong workout of the day. He should be primed and ready for the Santa Anita Derby on April 2nd.
15. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Ran a strong third in the Rebel but was by no means a threat for the win. I like that he has put two solid efforts together in a row, and he could very well improve in the Arkansas Derby.
16. Positive Response - Trained by William Morey
Has drawn gate two in the Spiral Stakes, where he will take on the likes of Thirtyfirststreet and Decisive Moment. If he is to make the Kentucky Derby, he has to win -- otherwise, he probably won't garner enough graded earnings.
17. Indian Winter - Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
Kind of inherited a spot on this list after Rogue Romance and Gourmet Dinner dropped out. His last race was quite disappointing, but I'm going to give him one more chance to prove himself
18. Astrology – Trained by Steve Asmussen
Drew the far outside in the Sunland Derby, which will be his first start since finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last year. If he wins the Sunland Derby, he may potentially run in the Kentucky Derby off of only one prep race, which would be highly unusual.
19. Sway Away - Trained by Jeff Bonde
Very disappointed by his sixth place finish in the Rebel Stakes, but I read that he lost a tooth during the race. This make me lean toward simply throwing the race out and judging him by his past efforts, but I'd like to see him rebound in his next start before moving him back up this list.
20. Data Link - Trained by Claude McGaughey III
He has won three straight races with strong late runs on the grass, and the Blue Grass Stakes has been mentioned as potentially his next start. He has lost both of his starts on dirt, but one of those was a fourth in a maiden special weight at Saratoga -- behind Astrology, To Honor and Serve, and Anthony's Cross.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Note: Rogue Romance has suffered a slight foot fracture which will force him to miss all of the Triple Crown races. I have therefore removed him from this list. I also removed Sky Music from the “Need to Show a Lot More” section because he has not recorded a workout since finishing second in the Undaunted Mettle Stakes on February 18th.
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - Scratching from the Rebel Stakes is going to throw off his schedule.
Arch Traveler - The Florida Derby has been confirmed as this colt's next start.
Congo - Quite impressed by his ability to escape from pockets.
Decisive Moment - Drew gate ten in the Spiral.
Flashpoint - Swale Stakes or Florida Derby will be next.
Gourmet Dinner - Hasn't breezed since the Fountain of Youth.
Kathmanblu - The Ashland Stakes at Keeneland is her current goal.
Machen - Drew gate seven in the Louisiana Derby.
Mr Commons - The Santa Anita Derby is next.
Sweet Ducky - Drew gate six in the UAE Derby.
Toby's Corner - The Wood Memorial against Uncle Mo may be next.
Wilkinson - Drew gate ten in the Louisiana Derby.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - I have the suspicion that he won't be racing again for a while.
Bandbox - Private Terms victory was accomplished with great ease.
Beamer - Fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn't what I was hoping for.
Beer Meister – Has drawn gate ten in the Sunland Derby.
Bench Points – I assume that the Santa Anita Derby is next.
Caleb's Posse – Very impressed by his strong second in the Rebel.
Cal Nation – Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Chasing Moonlight – Drew gate nine in the Hansel Stakes at Turfway.
Crimson Knight - Fought hard in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Dance City – Victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream over Cal Nation and Bowman’s Causeway was quite impressive.
Eminent Tale - Quite impressed by his Sweet Envoy Stakes victory.
Fusa Code - Borderland Derby winner drew gate three in the Sunland Derby.
J J's Lucky Train – Wondering where he will run next.
J W Blue - Wondering where he will race next.
Left – Drew gate eleven in the Louisiana Derby.
Nacho Business – Drew the rail in the Louisiana Derby.
Norman Asbjornson – The Wood Memorial will likely be next.
Queen'splatekitten - Runner-up finish in a paceless Palm Beach Stakes was by no means disappointing.
R Heat Lightning – Wondering where she will run next.
Supreme Ruler – Drew gate six in the Sunland Derby.
The Ole Gen – Drew gate seven in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway.
Watch Me Go - Tampa Bay Derby victory was surprising.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Adirondack Express - Broke his maiden on March 12th at Tampa Bay Downs.
Awesome Patriot – Disappointed by his poor San Felipe showing.
Behold de Buy – Drew gate five in the Sunland Derby.
Bowman's Causeway – Finished third in an allowance race at Gulfstream despite a perfect pace scenario.
Casper's Touch – Wondering where he will race next.
Comma to the Top - Fourth place finish in the San Felipe was fine, but it's obvious that he has distance limitations.
J P's Gusto – Seventh place finish in the Rebel Stakes was extremely disappointing.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Nacho Saint – Drew gate eight in the Sunland Derby.
Picko's Pride – Very disappointed by his eighth place finish in the Rebel.
Runflatout - Last place finish in the San Felipe was terribly disappointing.
San Pablo - Broke his maiden on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth.
Shackleford – Returned to the worktab for the first time since the Fountain of Youth on March 19th.
-Keelerman
CHAMP PEGASUS AND BOURBON BAY: CALIFORNIA COMPANIONS TAKE ON THE WORLD
The names Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay meant very little to racing fans one year ago today. Champ Pegasus had yet to break his maiden. Bourbon Bay? Duel grade II stakes winner at a mile-and-a-half at Santa Anita, but certainly no world-beater.
My, how much things can change in one year’s time. Now, these two are the leading turf marathoners in the United States. On Saturday, they will get a chance to prove that they are among the best turf marathoners in the world. Because on Saturday, they will attempt to claim the winner's share of $5,000,000 in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan Race Course in Dubai.
Their career achievements are remarkable. Champ Pegasus broke his maiden in April 2010. Then he won an allowance optional claiming race. Then he finished second in the Sunset Handicap (gr. III). Then he won the Del Mar Handicap (gr. II). The he won the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I).
In a matter of five starts, he had risen from the ranks of non-winners to a multiple graded stakes winner with a grade I win on his resume. Not bad.
Bourbon Bay's rise to glory was even more astronomical. In late 2009, he was competing without success in allowance races at Woodbine and Hollywood Park. Then, without warning, his career took off.
Entered in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park going a mile and a half, he won by 3 1/2 lengths. He then won the San Luis Obispo Handicap (gr. II). Then he won the San Luis Rey Handicap (gr. II) by 2 1/2. Then came a narrow win in the San Juan Capistrano Handicap (gr. II) going a mile and three quarters.
In a matter of four starts, he had risen from a colt with only a maiden special weight on his resume to a three-time grade II winner. A break was in order for the four-year-old gelding, and he did not run again until October, when he ran in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at a mile and a quarter.
Round one of the rivalry was about to begin.
Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay put on a show as the two favorites in the Hirsch. As usual, they both dropped off the pace, with Champ Pegasus dropping to sixth and Bourbon Bay to fourth. But it didn't look good for either as they came down the stretch. Bourbon Bay was racing in third with three lengths to make up. Champ Pegasus was fourth with four to make up. But they both charged gamely.
Champ Pegasus would have had to run his final quarter mile in about :22 1/5 seconds if he intended to get up in time. That is all but impossible. Yet somehow he accomplished it, rallying in about :22 seconds to win by three-quarters of a length. Longshot Where's the Remote finished second, with Bourbon Bay a neck further back in third. Considering that it was Bourbon Bay's first start in months and that ten furlongs is really too short for him, it was a sharp effort.
Bourbon Bay was given a bit of a break after that, leaving Champ Pegasus to try his luck in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Sent off at 9.70-1 in the championship race, the colt surprisingly went to the lead early. Seeing that he was changing his running style, it would have been understandable had he tired badly in the stretch. But he did not tire whatsoever, dueling with Dangerous Midge in deep stretch before allowing that one to win by 1 1/4 lengths while he finished a clear second.
Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay both came out for the 2011 debuts in the same race -- the San Marcos Stakes. Champ Pegasus was the deserving favorite there, but after tracking the pace and taking the lead was overhauled by Bourbon Bay in the final eighth of a mile. The latter had sat just a few lengths off the pace before exploding past his rival to win by 1 3/4 lengths.
Therefore, Bourbon Bay was favored in their next meeting, the San Luis Obispo Stakes. Bourbon Bay had won the race in 2010 and figured to add a second title to his resume. But despite taking the lead in the stretch, he was unable to hold off Champ Pegasus, who closed furiously to win by a desperate nose.
Now, they are taking the rivalry halfway around the world in an attempt to settle their differences in one of the world's richest turf races. They will have serious competition, with numerous grade/group I winners lined up to face them, including Dangerous Midge. But win, lose, or draw, you can bet that their rivalry will take another fascinating turn on Saturday on one of racing's biggest stages.
-Keelerman
My, how much things can change in one year’s time. Now, these two are the leading turf marathoners in the United States. On Saturday, they will get a chance to prove that they are among the best turf marathoners in the world. Because on Saturday, they will attempt to claim the winner's share of $5,000,000 in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan Race Course in Dubai.
Their career achievements are remarkable. Champ Pegasus broke his maiden in April 2010. Then he won an allowance optional claiming race. Then he finished second in the Sunset Handicap (gr. III). Then he won the Del Mar Handicap (gr. II). The he won the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I).
In a matter of five starts, he had risen from the ranks of non-winners to a multiple graded stakes winner with a grade I win on his resume. Not bad.
Bourbon Bay's rise to glory was even more astronomical. In late 2009, he was competing without success in allowance races at Woodbine and Hollywood Park. Then, without warning, his career took off.
Entered in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park going a mile and a half, he won by 3 1/2 lengths. He then won the San Luis Obispo Handicap (gr. II). Then he won the San Luis Rey Handicap (gr. II) by 2 1/2. Then came a narrow win in the San Juan Capistrano Handicap (gr. II) going a mile and three quarters.
In a matter of four starts, he had risen from a colt with only a maiden special weight on his resume to a three-time grade II winner. A break was in order for the four-year-old gelding, and he did not run again until October, when he ran in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at a mile and a quarter.
Round one of the rivalry was about to begin.
Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay put on a show as the two favorites in the Hirsch. As usual, they both dropped off the pace, with Champ Pegasus dropping to sixth and Bourbon Bay to fourth. But it didn't look good for either as they came down the stretch. Bourbon Bay was racing in third with three lengths to make up. Champ Pegasus was fourth with four to make up. But they both charged gamely.
Champ Pegasus would have had to run his final quarter mile in about :22 1/5 seconds if he intended to get up in time. That is all but impossible. Yet somehow he accomplished it, rallying in about :22 seconds to win by three-quarters of a length. Longshot Where's the Remote finished second, with Bourbon Bay a neck further back in third. Considering that it was Bourbon Bay's first start in months and that ten furlongs is really too short for him, it was a sharp effort.
Bourbon Bay was given a bit of a break after that, leaving Champ Pegasus to try his luck in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Sent off at 9.70-1 in the championship race, the colt surprisingly went to the lead early. Seeing that he was changing his running style, it would have been understandable had he tired badly in the stretch. But he did not tire whatsoever, dueling with Dangerous Midge in deep stretch before allowing that one to win by 1 1/4 lengths while he finished a clear second.
Champ Pegasus and Bourbon Bay both came out for the 2011 debuts in the same race -- the San Marcos Stakes. Champ Pegasus was the deserving favorite there, but after tracking the pace and taking the lead was overhauled by Bourbon Bay in the final eighth of a mile. The latter had sat just a few lengths off the pace before exploding past his rival to win by 1 3/4 lengths.
Therefore, Bourbon Bay was favored in their next meeting, the San Luis Obispo Stakes. Bourbon Bay had won the race in 2010 and figured to add a second title to his resume. But despite taking the lead in the stretch, he was unable to hold off Champ Pegasus, who closed furiously to win by a desperate nose.
Now, they are taking the rivalry halfway around the world in an attempt to settle their differences in one of the world's richest turf races. They will have serious competition, with numerous grade/group I winners lined up to face them, including Dangerous Midge. But win, lose, or draw, you can bet that their rivalry will take another fascinating turn on Saturday on one of racing's biggest stages.
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 19, 2011
THE FACTOR WINS THE REBEL STAKES!
It is apparent that another factor will need to be evaluated on Kentucky Derby day -- the The Factor factor.
Sent off as the 7-5 favorite in the mile and a sixteenth Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park, The Factor proved that he can dominate around two turns. He went straight to the lead. He set fractions of :23.33 and :46.77. And he never stopped -- he stayed on all the way to the wire, winning by about seven lengths.
Under Martin Garcia, The Factor broke quickly and issued a challenge to all of the other runners: Catch Me If You Can. Saratoga Red tried to give chase, but was several lengths off of the lead in the early stages. He was followed by Archarcharch in third, with J P's Gusto fourth and Picko's Pride fifth.
The hot pace continued, with The Factor rattling off three-quarters of a mile in 1:10.98. Suddenly, on the outside, Caleb's Posse entered the picture. With a sudden sharp move on the far outside, he swept into contention.
But The Factor turned him back entering the home stretch, and drew off with power. He ran a mile in 1:35.99 and completed the mile and a sixteenth race in a very sharp 1:42.19.
Caleb's Posse ran a very strong second, with Archarcharch finishing third. J P's Gusto ran fourth.
The Factor proved that he can carry his speed around two turns. With brilliance.
The The Factor factor is going to be an important factor in Louisville.
-Keelerman
Sent off as the 7-5 favorite in the mile and a sixteenth Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park, The Factor proved that he can dominate around two turns. He went straight to the lead. He set fractions of :23.33 and :46.77. And he never stopped -- he stayed on all the way to the wire, winning by about seven lengths.
Under Martin Garcia, The Factor broke quickly and issued a challenge to all of the other runners: Catch Me If You Can. Saratoga Red tried to give chase, but was several lengths off of the lead in the early stages. He was followed by Archarcharch in third, with J P's Gusto fourth and Picko's Pride fifth.
The hot pace continued, with The Factor rattling off three-quarters of a mile in 1:10.98. Suddenly, on the outside, Caleb's Posse entered the picture. With a sudden sharp move on the far outside, he swept into contention.
But The Factor turned him back entering the home stretch, and drew off with power. He ran a mile in 1:35.99 and completed the mile and a sixteenth race in a very sharp 1:42.19.
Caleb's Posse ran a very strong second, with Archarcharch finishing third. J P's Gusto ran fourth.
The Factor proved that he can carry his speed around two turns. With brilliance.
The The Factor factor is going to be an important factor in Louisville.
-Keelerman
HAVRE DE GRACE WINS THE AZERI!
Havre de Grace pulled off a mild upset in the grade III Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn Park, drawing off in the stretch to win by daylight.
Making her first start since finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, the daughter of Saint Liam sat fourth in the early going behind a moderate pace set by Absinthe Minded. Blind Luck, the slight favorite, was last as usual. However, she was last by a large margin, trailing the field by some ten lengths.
On the far turn Havre de Grace, under Ramon Dominguez, made a three wide bid for the lead. This enabled her to take the lead entering the homestretch and get a huge jump on Blind Luck, who was uncorking her rally but much too late. Blind Luck closed resolutely, but the results were never in doubt. Havre de Grace hit the wire three or four lengths in front of her rival, with Absinthe Minded hanging on for third. Tidal Pool finished fourth.
The final time for the mile and a sixteenth event was 1:42.02.
-Keelerman
Making her first start since finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, the daughter of Saint Liam sat fourth in the early going behind a moderate pace set by Absinthe Minded. Blind Luck, the slight favorite, was last as usual. However, she was last by a large margin, trailing the field by some ten lengths.
On the far turn Havre de Grace, under Ramon Dominguez, made a three wide bid for the lead. This enabled her to take the lead entering the homestretch and get a huge jump on Blind Luck, who was uncorking her rally but much too late. Blind Luck closed resolutely, but the results were never in doubt. Havre de Grace hit the wire three or four lengths in front of her rival, with Absinthe Minded hanging on for third. Tidal Pool finished fourth.
The final time for the mile and a sixteenth event was 1:42.02.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 19th, 2011 - Rebel Stakes Analysis
The grade II Rebel Stakes, the third of the four major Oaklawn Park prep races for the Kentucky Derby, has drawn a large field of 13. However, the scratches of Dreaminofthewin, Elite Alex, and Glint have reduced the field to “only” ten horses.
Here are the entries:
1 Archarcharch
2 Alternation
3 Dreaminofthewin
4 Picko’s Pride
5 J P’s Gusto
6 The Factor
7 Caleb’s Posse
8 Saratoga Red
9 Sway Away
10 Elite Alex
11 Glint
12 Bluegrass Jam
13 J W Blue
Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) last month, is 8-1 on the morning line. He probably deserves to be less than that, but he just hadn’t garnered much respect off of that victory. Perhaps this is because the runner-up that day, J P’s Gusto, had a troubled trip and was charging hard at the finish. Expect to see Archarcharch in contention at the top of the stretch.
Alternation won an allowance race against older horses impressively a couple races prior to the Southwest Stakes. He will be making his first start in stakes company and figures to be charging in late in the homestretch.
Picko’s Pride is a cotl that I honestly feel has a great shot at winning. 20-1 on the morning line, he closed from twenty lengths off the pace in the Southwest to finish fourth, beaten 3 ¾ lengths. And his trip was not clean at all. With a little luck today, I would not be surprised to see him flash under the wire first at odds of 20-1 or more.
J P’s Gusto, as I mentioned above, finished second in the Southwest after a rough trip. Although the colt is not bred to succeed at the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, the mile and a sixteenth distance of the Rebel should be exactly what he wants. He has good tactical speed, as well as the ability to rate, and should adapt to any pace scenario. He should get first run at the leaders.
The Factor is the horse that everyone will have their eyes on. The colt has won his last two races with triple-digit Beyers and has an incredible amount of speed. But two questions remain – can he be rated and can he stretch his tremendous speed around two turns? Both questions will likely be answered this afternoon. Should he succeed, the Kentucky Derby will probably become his goal.
Caleb’s Posse won the Smarty Jones Stakes, the first of the Oaklawn Kentucky Derby preps, in January. However, he ran poorly in the Southwest Stakes after a rough trip. A cleaner trip should help his chances today, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t talented enough to compete successfully at this level of competition.
Saratoga Red broke his maiden in front-running style in February at Oaklawn. After setting quick fractions of :23 1/5 and :46 1/5, he held on to win by a desperate neck at 22.50-1. Considering that the horse he dueled faded to finish well back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saratoga Red outruns his odds this afternoon.
Sway Away could end up being sent off as the second choice. He closed rapidly against The Factor last time out in the San Vicente Stakes, falling a length short after being five lengths behind at the eighth pole. That was his first start off of a lengthy layoff, and he has every chance to run even better today.
Bluegrass Jam has been running well enough in allowance company, but his speed figures do not make him a contender here and he just hasn’t shown enough to warrant consideration for the win. Perhaps he can close for a piece of the purse, but I’m afraid that I don’t think so.
Finally, there is J W Blue. The colt ran the best race of his short career last time out, rallying from far off the pace to win a mile and a sixteenth allowance race over this track by 1 ½ lengths. If the pace is quick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flying late for a top four finish.
My picks are thus:
1 Picko’s Pride
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Alternation
4 The Factor
5 Archarcharch
6 Sway Away
7 Saratoga Red
8 J W Blue
9 Caleb’s Posse
10 Bluegrass Jam
It was a very difficult race to handicap, but I’m fairly confident that Picko’s Pride is going to win. J P’s Gusto should be right there in the stretch, and Alternation should be closing fast. Although The Factor is perhaps the most talented horse in the race, I do worry about his ability to stretch out around two turns. We’ll see what happens.
J.R. is taking a more conservative route. Usually one to try and find a longshot to pick, he has instead selected J P’s Gusto. He’s convinced that J P’s Gusto was the best horse in the Southwest and that he will prove it with a strong victory today.
His complete selections are:
1 J P’s Gusto
2 Sway Away
3 J W Blue
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Alternation
7 The Factor
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 Bluegrass Jam
10 Saratoga Red
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Tap Star, who is coming off of a sharp allowance victory. However, I really like Bandbox, who was beaten a neck by the classy J J’s Lucky Train in the Miracle Wood Stakes over this track last time out.
Another logical contender is Rush Now, who ran last as the favorite in the Count Fleet Stakes two starts back before impressively winning a one-mile claiming race at Laurel. He’s back into stakes company now, and should be right there throughout the race.
As this is one of the Handicapping Contest races, I handicapped the race and selected Bandbox to win. Somewhat surprisingly, J.R. went with the favorite Tap Star. Perhaps he is being a bit more conservative because he is behind in the contest. We’ll see!
And that’s all for now! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Here are the entries:
1 Archarcharch
2 Alternation
3 Dreaminofthewin
4 Picko’s Pride
5 J P’s Gusto
6 The Factor
7 Caleb’s Posse
8 Saratoga Red
9 Sway Away
10 Elite Alex
11 Glint
12 Bluegrass Jam
13 J W Blue
Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) last month, is 8-1 on the morning line. He probably deserves to be less than that, but he just hadn’t garnered much respect off of that victory. Perhaps this is because the runner-up that day, J P’s Gusto, had a troubled trip and was charging hard at the finish. Expect to see Archarcharch in contention at the top of the stretch.
Alternation won an allowance race against older horses impressively a couple races prior to the Southwest Stakes. He will be making his first start in stakes company and figures to be charging in late in the homestretch.
Picko’s Pride is a cotl that I honestly feel has a great shot at winning. 20-1 on the morning line, he closed from twenty lengths off the pace in the Southwest to finish fourth, beaten 3 ¾ lengths. And his trip was not clean at all. With a little luck today, I would not be surprised to see him flash under the wire first at odds of 20-1 or more.
J P’s Gusto, as I mentioned above, finished second in the Southwest after a rough trip. Although the colt is not bred to succeed at the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, the mile and a sixteenth distance of the Rebel should be exactly what he wants. He has good tactical speed, as well as the ability to rate, and should adapt to any pace scenario. He should get first run at the leaders.
The Factor is the horse that everyone will have their eyes on. The colt has won his last two races with triple-digit Beyers and has an incredible amount of speed. But two questions remain – can he be rated and can he stretch his tremendous speed around two turns? Both questions will likely be answered this afternoon. Should he succeed, the Kentucky Derby will probably become his goal.
Caleb’s Posse won the Smarty Jones Stakes, the first of the Oaklawn Kentucky Derby preps, in January. However, he ran poorly in the Southwest Stakes after a rough trip. A cleaner trip should help his chances today, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t talented enough to compete successfully at this level of competition.
Saratoga Red broke his maiden in front-running style in February at Oaklawn. After setting quick fractions of :23 1/5 and :46 1/5, he held on to win by a desperate neck at 22.50-1. Considering that the horse he dueled faded to finish well back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saratoga Red outruns his odds this afternoon.
Sway Away could end up being sent off as the second choice. He closed rapidly against The Factor last time out in the San Vicente Stakes, falling a length short after being five lengths behind at the eighth pole. That was his first start off of a lengthy layoff, and he has every chance to run even better today.
Bluegrass Jam has been running well enough in allowance company, but his speed figures do not make him a contender here and he just hasn’t shown enough to warrant consideration for the win. Perhaps he can close for a piece of the purse, but I’m afraid that I don’t think so.
Finally, there is J W Blue. The colt ran the best race of his short career last time out, rallying from far off the pace to win a mile and a sixteenth allowance race over this track by 1 ½ lengths. If the pace is quick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flying late for a top four finish.
My picks are thus:
1 Picko’s Pride
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Alternation
4 The Factor
5 Archarcharch
6 Sway Away
7 Saratoga Red
8 J W Blue
9 Caleb’s Posse
10 Bluegrass Jam
It was a very difficult race to handicap, but I’m fairly confident that Picko’s Pride is going to win. J P’s Gusto should be right there in the stretch, and Alternation should be closing fast. Although The Factor is perhaps the most talented horse in the race, I do worry about his ability to stretch out around two turns. We’ll see what happens.
J.R. is taking a more conservative route. Usually one to try and find a longshot to pick, he has instead selected J P’s Gusto. He’s convinced that J P’s Gusto was the best horse in the Southwest and that he will prove it with a strong victory today.
His complete selections are:
1 J P’s Gusto
2 Sway Away
3 J W Blue
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Alternation
7 The Factor
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 Bluegrass Jam
10 Saratoga Red
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Tap Star, who is coming off of a sharp allowance victory. However, I really like Bandbox, who was beaten a neck by the classy J J’s Lucky Train in the Miracle Wood Stakes over this track last time out.
Another logical contender is Rush Now, who ran last as the favorite in the Count Fleet Stakes two starts back before impressively winning a one-mile claiming race at Laurel. He’s back into stakes company now, and should be right there throughout the race.
As this is one of the Handicapping Contest races, I handicapped the race and selected Bandbox to win. Somewhat surprisingly, J.R. went with the favorite Tap Star. Perhaps he is being a bit more conservative because he is behind in the contest. We’ll see!
And that’s all for now! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)