(Due to the fact that the Derby is rapidly approaching, I have decided to shorten this week's Top Twenty to a mere Top Twelve. Enjoy!)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Let the workouts begin! On April 17th, Creative Cause turned in his next-to-last workout for the Derby, going five-eighths of a mile in an easy 1:01 1/5 at Hollywood Park. It certainly wasn't the quickest of moves, but we don't want him peaking too soon. His final breeze will come at Churchill Downs next weekend, and whether or not he retains this top spot all the way to the Derby depends on how good a workout it is.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
This colt is really getting serious in his training now, as he worked a half-mile work in :47 2/5 on April 20th at Keeneland, a much sharper breeze than anything he turned in leading up to the Florida Derby. One more work is on the agenda, and it will come at Churchill Downs. So long as it's a good, stiff, quick breeze, I might just end up putting him back on top.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
Unlike many of the horses on this list, this colt will not breeze at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby; he ships in too late for that. Instead, he will record his final works at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he breezed five furlongs 1:01.66 on April 19th. Although he did win the Florida Derby in wire-to-wire fashion, I don't envision him being part of the pace on the first Saturday in May. Rather, I expect to see him rating off of the early pace while racing along the rail, much like Super Saver did in 2010. So long as he gets a clear run from there, he should be right there in the homestretch.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has arrived at Churchill Downs and has been galloping; his first workout over the track is scheduled to come tomorrow. The key with this colt is to keep him from peaking too soon -- hopefully, he didn't leave his best effort in Arkansas. But seeing that he is lightly raced, he should be okay. The presence of two-time stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg will, in my opinion, help this colt's chances. It will give him a speedy front-runner to rate behind, so that he won't have to set the pace himself. After all, winning the Derby in gate-to-wire fashion is not an easy thing to do.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
The more I think about his Blue Grass performance the more I like it. So why do I still have him down here in position number five? I'm afraid I don't know. I could put him up into the second spot if I wanted to, and I may if he trains well leading up to the Derby. The fact that he did finish fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) is a plus in my opinion, because it proves that he can handle the Churchill dirt at least pretty well. And he did finish ahead of Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective, and Optimizer that day.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Now, I may be a bit confused as to why I have Dullahan down in position number five, but I simply cannot comprehend why I have Gemologist -- an undefeated Wood Memorial winner from the barn of Todd Pletcher with a pair of wins at Churchill Downs -- down here in spot number six. That is how talented this year's Derby field is. There is so little seperating the top eight or nine contenders that you could put any one of them at the top and feel good about your pick. As for this colt in particular, he -- like Take Charge Indy -- will do all of his serious training at Palm Meadows, where he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.81 on April 20th.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Try and figure this one out. The colt that beat my #1 pick in the Santa Anita Derby is down here in spot number seven. Further proof of how talented these colts are. This one has been breezing longer distances than most, or all, of the other Derby contenders, which is something I really like. On April 19th, he went six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, and I actually wouldn't be surprised if he goes seven furlongs next time, for that is what he did prior to his Santa Anita Derby victory.
8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I decided to drop him one spot this week due to the fact that his entire Derby schedule has been goofed up due to infected cuts suffered as a result of clipping heels in the Wood Memorial. Instead of having two breezes at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby, he will breeze only once, and he will do it at Belmont Park. And furthermore, his regular rider Ramon Dominguez is going to stick with Hansen in the Derby, meaning that this colt will have to find a new jockey to boot. But at least he's back to galloping.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
As mentioned above, he will retain the services of regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the Kentucky Derby. Like Bodemeister, I think that the presence of Trinniberg could help Hansen's chances immensely, giving him a front-runner to rate behind; to settle behind; to tackle on the far turn. He should be back on the work tab before too long.
10. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has found himself a Derby rider in Rafael Bejarano, who lost his previous mount Secret Circle due to injury. This colt seems to have been forgotten a bit in all the hype over the top contenders, but the fact is that his Florida Derby effort wasn't really all that bad, and I think he's training as well as anyone else. After all, he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.56 at Palm Meadows on the same day as Gemologist, getting the distance in slightly faster time. Like his stablemate, he won't get a chance to breeze at Churchill, but at least we know that he's got the pedigree and class to be a contender.
11. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
Breezed six furlongs in company with Crimson China on April 21st at Keeneland, going a moderate six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. It was by no means a quit breeze, but then again, this colt has never been much of a work horse -- his final workout prior to his Spiral Stakes victory was five furlongs in 1:01.92. We should learn a great deal more about this colt when he breezes at Churchill Downs sometime during the next week.
12. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
It's very difficult to decide which horse to include in this final spot. I went back and forth and back and forth between Daddy Nose Best and Mark Valeski, finally giving the nod to the latter colt due to the fact that he breezed five furlongs in a sharp :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs this morning. He seems to have come out of the Louisiana Derby in good fashion, which is certainly nice to see. He's got one more work left on the agenda, and how good a breeze it is will determine whether he retains this twelfth position, drops a bit, or moves up. I think he'll move up.
Other Notable Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg
-Keelerman
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