Due to the number of horses in each race -- a grand total of twenty-four horses are running -- I shan't write out my normal, lengthy analysis of every runner. Instead, I shall write a brief paragraph on each one, in an attempt to cover as much ground as possible in as few words as possible. Enjoy!
Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Keeneland Polytrack
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Heavy Breathing | Corey Lanerie |
| 2 | Gung Ho | Edgar Prado |
| 3 | Prospective | Luis Contreras |
| 4 | Hansen | Ramon Dominguez |
| 5 | Russian Greek | Miguel Mena |
| 6 | Dullahan | Kent Desormeaux |
| 7 | Politicallycorrect | Elvis Trujillo |
| 8 | Midnight Crooner | Garrett Gomez |
| 9 | Holy Candy | Joel Rosario |
| 10 | Howe Great | Javier Castellano |
| 11 | Ever So Lucky | Julien Leparoux |
| 12 | Hero of Order | E. M. Marting, Jr. |
| 13 | Scatman | Shaun Bridgmohan |
Heavy Breathing: Todd Pletcher-trainee won his first two starts, but finished third last time out in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III). A speedy colt, he will undoubtedly be part of the early pace, but he's going to have to step up in order to beat a field like this.
Gung Ho: Ran well off a long layoff to finish second in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, beaten just a half-length after stumbling at the start. He should be much sharper today, but it is worth noting that his lone start over the Keeneland Polytrack yielded a non-threatening seventh-place finish in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). He is training well, though.
Prospective: Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) winner just keeps getting better and better. A versatile type, he has proven effective when coming from off the pace in the stretch and when leading the way around the far turn. This should allow him to adapt to any pace scenario. He is also 2-for-2 over synthetic surfaces, so he should handle Keeneland's Polytrack just fine.
Hansen: Juvenile champion is coming off of an authoritative victory in Aqueduct's Gotham Stakes (gr. III), in which he showed a new dimension by rating off of the early lead. He won a pair of races on Turfway's Polytrack last fall, so he too should handle the Keeneland Polytrack, but the Blue Grass Stakes has not been kind to favorites in recent years, and he could have a difficult time in the stretch if he is forced to go too fast early.
Russian Greek: One must admit that this colt is very predictable. In his six starts, he has earned a Beyer speed figure of 70 to 79 on every occasion. He has plenty of experience over synthetic tracks, having made five starts over such surfaces, but he is coming off of an eighth-place finish in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) and it's difficult to see him contending for the win.
Dullahan: If anyone can beat Hansen in this spot, it's probably this colt. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) here at Keeneland last fall, he is coming off of a strong runner-up effort to fellow Blue Grass starter Howe Great in Gulfstream's Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) on the turf. Seeing that this will be his second start off a layoff, I wouldn't be surprised if Dullahan emerges as the Blue Grass winner.
Politicallycorrect: This son of Kitten's Joy didn't look like anything special when he finished a distant seventh in the Gulfstream Park Derby on the first day of 2012, but the colt rebounded sharply the next time out to win a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream on February 26th, stopping the clock in a quick 1:22 3/5. He hasn't raced since then, and it's possible that he will prove best as a sprinter, but trainer Wesley Ward has been doing very well at Keeneland, and this colt could certainly be a contender under the right conditions.
Midnight Crooner: This Bob Baffert-trainee's best performance came when breaking his maiden going a mile on the Golden Gate Tapeta surface, so he should enjoy racing over Keeneland's Polytrack today. Last time out, he finished a close third to Chips All In and Tones in the Pasadena Stakes going a mile on the Santa Anita turf, which I thought was a very good performance. Expect to see the son of War Chant right near the lead early on.
Holy Candy: This colt has found a tough spot to face winners for the first time, but he was so impressive when breaking his maiden three weeks ago at Santa Anita that he really does deserve a shot at making the Kentucky Derby. Trained by John Sadler, this colt has a brilliant turn of foot, which could make him very dangerous if the early pace is quick. He's been facing good horses throughout his career, such as Castaway, Stirred Up, and Empire Way, so we already know that he's talented. Now he just needs to prove it against the best.
Howe Great: From the barn of Graham Motion, Howe Great defeated Dullahan in his last start, taking the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. II) in gate-to-wire fashion, but he will undoubtedly face more pace pressure today, and starting from gate ten is not going to be an easy task. He will be racing on a synthetic track for the first time, which is a bit of concern, but seeing that he has won over both dirt and turf, this change in surface shouldn't be much of an issue.
Ever So Lucky: Trained by Jonathan Sheppard, this colt has only raced once this year, finishing a distant third to Trinniberg in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes (gr. II). As a juvenile, he finished second to subsequent Wood Memorial (gr. I) winner Gemologist in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), so it's clear that he has talent. The Blue Grass is not an easy place to stretch back out, but this colt is training very, very well, and it's possible that he could surprise a number of people by hitting the board.
Hero of Order: Winner of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) at odds of 109-1, this colt will be making his first start over a synthetic track, and while he does have early speed, he will probably have to run a bit faster early on than he usually does in order to contend for the early lead. In addition, he will be starting from gate twelve, which could cause him to be hung very wide on the turns. But at least he's a pretty consistent type, and it's possible that he is just now rounding into his best form.
Scatman: This son of Scat Daddy has finished second in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and third in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) down at Oaklawn Park, but the front-running colt is going to have to really roll early to not get caught wide on the turns. He did break his maiden here at Keeneland last fall, so we know he can handle the Polytrack, but with so much early speed in this race, it's difficult to see this colt getting a good trip.
Here are my selections:
1 Dullahan
2 Holy Candy
3 Hansen
4 Prospective
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Midnight Crooner
2 Hansen
3 Howe Great
4 Gung Ho
Arkansas Stakes (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Oaklawn dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Cozzetti | Joze Lezcano |
| 2 | Stat | John Velazquez |
| 3 | Najjaar | Calvin Borel |
| 4 | Jake Mo | M. Clifton Berry |
| 5 | Secret Circle | Rafael Bejarano |
| 6 | Isn't He Clever | Robby Albarado |
| 7 | Optimizer | Jon Court |
| 8 | Atigun | Terry Thompson |
| 9 | Sabercat | Corey Nakatani |
| 10 | Raconteur | Christopher DeCarlo |
| 11 | Bodemeister | Mike Smith |
Cozzetti: Dale Romans-trainee is coming off of a third-place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), in which he showed a decent stretch kick. He seems to be improving with every start, which is something you want to see in a three-year-old this time of year, so while he'll probably be one of the longer shots in this race, it's very possible that he could be coming on strongly late.
Stat: From the barn of Todd Pletcher, Stat is coming off of an eye-catching victory in a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on March 17th, in which he recorded a final time of 1:35.90 while winning by 6 1/4 lengths. A speedy colt, he probably won't be on the early lead, but from gate two, he shouldn't be too far off of it either. This is a serious class test, but I suspect that he may be up to the task.
Najjaar: This colt never really had a chance in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), in which a poor start caused him to drop some twenty lengths off of the early lead, but he still managed to close strongly to be beaten just 4 3/4 lengths at the finish. He shouldn't be quite that far off of the pace today, and with Calvin Borel in the saddle, he should be able to work out a good trip -- possibly along the rail. Expect to see him flying at the finish.
Jake Mo: This consistent colt has finished fourth, second, and fourth in the three local preps for this race, proving that while he isn't quite as good as the top runners on the circuit, he is certainly more than capable of holding his own against them. He's the longest shot on the morning line, but he should be up to cracking the superfecta again under the right conditions.
Secret Circle: Although this Bob Baffert-trainee gives every impression of being more of a sprinter type, he just keeps stretching out further and further, and just keeps on winning and winning. Victories in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and Rebel Stakes (gr. II) here at Oaklawn set him up for a sweep of the Oaklawn Derby preps if he can win again today, but he's never been as far as nine furlongs before and could have a bit of trouble in the final eighth of a mile this afternoon. On the other hand, his apparent stamina limitations haven't stopped him yet, and I won't be surprised if he wins again today. Don't expect to see him on the early lead, though. He'll likely be second or third early on, depending on how many horses go for the lead.
Isn't He Clever: Runner-up in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) removes the blinkers in an effort to get him to relax a bit better, as he possibly lost the Sunland Derby due to making his move too soon. With the talented Robby Albarado in the saddle for the first time, he should be able to work out an excellent trip, but he probably won't get the same dream setup that he did at Sunland, where he sat third behind a blazing speed duel that unfolded in front of him.
Optimizer: D. Wayne Lukas-trainee looked great when closing fast in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) to finish just three-quarters of a length behind Secret Circle. That performance was by far the best of his life, which could possibly lead to a bounce, but the added distance of today's race should only help his chances. Also, the presence of a number of speedy front-runners should help set up his late run.
Atigun: He will race on Lasix for the first time after finishing eleventh in the Rebel Stakes, which makes me suspect that bleeding caused that poor performance. His previous form is good enough to suggest that hitting the board isn't out of the question today, so if you're looking for a huge longshot to use in superfectas, this might be the colt.
Sabercat: Winner of last year's $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), his first start since then yielded a dismal eighth-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, a performance that was really too bad to be explained. He should be sharper today, but he's going to have to really step up in order to defeat a field like this one.
Raconteur: While he was no match for Hansen in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), where he finished a distant seventh, this Todd Pletcher-trainee rebounded sharply to win Laurel's one-mile Private Terms Stakes, which was his third victory in his last four starts. A son of A.P. Indy, he should get better with distance and age, which seems to say that the nine-furlong distance of the Arkansas Derby should be right up his alley.
Bodemeister: From the barn of Bob Baffert, making him Secret Circle's stablemate, Bodemeister is actually the morning line favorite, probably because of his sharp second-place effort last time out to the very talented Creative Cause in Santa Anita's San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). A very fast colt, I expect Bodemeister to come out of the gate running and go straight to the early lead, where the rest of the runners will have to play catch-up. One of only two horses in this race to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure -- the other being Secret Circle -- this colt's pedigree should more than carry him nine furlongs, which should make him very dangerous. Jockey Rafael Bejarano may have chosen Secret Circle over this colt, but I think that Bodemeister is going to be the winner.
Here are my selections:
1 Bodemeister
2 Secret Circle
3 Optimizer
4 Stat
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Optimizer
2 Bodemeister
3 Sabercat
4 Raconteur
Other Races of Note
At Oaklawn on Saturday . . .
Race 9: The one-mile Northern Spur Stakes has drawn Drill, a Bob Baffert-trainee that will be trying for the fifth time to try and win a two-turn race. He was actually under consideration for Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), but Baffert chose this easier spot instead. Explain, runner-up in a recent Oaklawn allowance race, and Pee H Dee, the ninth-place finisher in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), are logical upset contenders if Drill fails to fire.
-Keelerman
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