But the Florida Derby was not the only major Derby prep race scheduled for this weekend. Later this afternoon, a field of thirteen will head to post for the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), where they will attempt to secure the necessary graded earnings to make the Derby field. Let's take a look at who's running!
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the Fair Grounds dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Fire Alarm | Miguel Mena |
| 2 | Windsurfer | John Velazquez |
| 3 | Finnegans Wake | Corey Lanerie |
| 4 | Flashy Sunrise | Rajiv Maragh |
| 5 | Cigar Street | Shaun Bridgmohan |
| 6 | Shared Property | Leandro Goncalves |
| 7 | Mr. Bowling | Robby Albarado |
| 8 | Mark Valeski | Rosie Napravnik |
| 9 | Scratched | |
| 10 | Comisky's Humor | Richard Eramia |
| 11 | Z Dager | Shane Sellers |
| 12 | Rousing Sermon | Mike Smith |
| 13 | Hero of Order | E. M. Martin, Jr. |
| 14 | Afford | James Graham |
The favorite will most likely be Mark Valeski, a son of Proud Citizen from the barn of Larry Jones. The highly promising colt finished second last time out in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) here at Fair Grounds, beaten just a nose by El Padrino in a very game performance. He's got the early speed to be a contender from the start, which should prove useful here at Fair Grounds, where the track has been speed-favoring. He turned in a bullet five-furlong breeze in :59 2/5 on March 20th, which further signals his readiness to turn in another top performance. He looks tough to beat.
The only other colt that I can see being favored is Cigar Street, who broke his maiden by 13 3/4 lengths last time out. He's only raced twice, and this is a tough spot to face winners for the first time, but the colt is already proven around two turns and may just have the natural talent to win a race like this. He should have no trouble getting a good trip from gate five, and like Mark Valeski, he's got the speed to be a contender from the start, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the stretch run comes down to Mark Valeski and Cigar Street, with the others far behind.
A quartet of off-the-pace runners should also be in the mix if the early pace is sufficient enough to set up their late runs. First off, there is Rousing Sermon, who was one of the best juveniles in California last year following his narrowly-beaten defeats in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes. In both of those performances, he displayed a tremendous turn of foot that left one eager to see how he would perform in the spring, but he has been disappointing thus far this year. In both the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), he late run was completely absent. Perhaps that was due to the speed-favoring nature of the Santa Anita main track. If that was indeed the case, then he should turn in a sharper performance today, especially with the longer Fair Grounds homestretch helping his chances.
Z Dager is another late-closing type that could be in the mix, although to be perfectly honest, he does have enough speed to sit within two or three lengths of the early pace. He has proven to be a very consistent sort, having finished second in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) and third in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) -- two major preps for this event -- and while he was no match for Mark Valeski and El Padrino in the Risen Star, he should nevertheless be right there at the top of the stretch. His bullet six-furlong work on March 19th was also encouraging.
Shared Property and Finnegans Wake should also be major off-the-pace threats. Shared Property has really gotten some awful trips in both the LeComte and the Risen Star, getting hung very wide on both occasions after drawing gates 13 and 10. Not surprisingly, he was beaten in both, but seeing that he will be starting from gate 6 today and wearing blinkers for the first time, it's very possible that he will work out a much better trip this time around -- perhaps even enough to get him a victory. Plus, he's been training very well, including a sharp half-mile in :47 1/5 on March 26th and five-eighths in :59 3/5 on March 19th.
As for Finnegans Wake, he is coming off of a third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct, in which he rallied from last in a field of thirteen to finish third, although far behind the victorious Hansen. He's been keeping good company throughout his career, and with the long Fair Grounds homestretch to take advantage of, he too could charge off the pace late to secure a piece of the purse.
Windsurfer and Mr. Bowling could also be contenders. Windsurfer, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, lost his first two starts before taking a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park in a highly impressive performance -- he was hung wide around both turns, but still finished up strongly to win by 2 1/2 lengths. This is a huge step up in class, but from gate two, he shouldn't get caught wide on the turns and he has the speed to work out a good trip. Having John Velazquez in the saddle should help, too.
Mr. Bowling, stablemate to Mark Valeski, won the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) back in January, but finished a dismal last of eleven in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), beaten 14 1/2 lengths. Perhaps he isn't quite as talented as Mark Valeski, but I'm certain he's better than he showed in the Risen Star. He'll probably be a few lengths off the pace early on, but he has the ability to be in the mix when they turn for home.
As for the rest, Fire Alarm is coming off of a narrow victory in an allowance optional claiming event here at Fair Grounds, but is stepping way up in class. Flashy Sunrise has shown talent, but has never won a race in eight starts and is coming off of a second-place finish to the above-mentioned Cigar Street, in which he was beaten 13 3/4 lengths. Comisky's Humor has won two straight races by a combined 18 lengths, but those wins came in maiden claiming and starter allowance company, and he'll be racing beyond six furlongs for the first time today. Hero of Order has actually been running pretty well lately, and I like him as a longshot to crack the superfecta -- which is exactly what he did in both the LeComte and the Risen Star, finishing third and fourth, respectively, at odds of 57-1 and 79-1. Most recently, he finished second in the Black Gold Stakes going 7-1/2 furlongs on the Fair Grounds turf course, beaten just three-quarters of a length. He was disqualified and placed fourth that day, but it was still a strong effort and I think it could set him up well for this race. Last but not least, Afford is coming off of a distant sixth-place finish in the Risen Star, but had previously run well enough to suggest that he can do better today.
My selections are:
1 Mark Valeski
2 Cigar Street
3 Shared Property
4 Hero of Order
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Finnegans Wake
2 Mark Valeski
3 Z Dager
4 Rousing Sermon
I hate to go with the two favorites, but I think Mark Valeski is going to be even sharper today than he was in the Risen Star, and I do believe that Cigar Street has the talent to be a major contender here. J.R. feels that trainer Dale Romans would not have shipped Finnegans Wake here if he did not think his colt had a chance, so he's putting him on top in hopes that the long Fair Grounds homestretch -- coupled with a projected fast pace -- enables him to catch Mark Valeski in the final furlong.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment