(Welcome to part III of my Kentucky Derby graded earnings analysis, a comprehensive series of posts examining the graded earnings list which is used to determine which twenty three-year-olds will be allowed to compete in the Kentucky Derby. To view part I, click here. To view part II, click here.)
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With the Kentucky Derby little more than a week and a half away, the prospective Derby field is unlikely to change very much. However, the possibility still exists that we could see an unexpected name end up in the top twenty.
Let's take a look at the current graded earnings list . . .
1. Hansen $1,550,000
2. Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030
3. Union Rags $1,170,000
4. Dullahan $855,000
5. Creative Cause $836,000
6. Gemologist $703,855
7. Sabercat $701,429.
8. Take Charge Indy $698,400
9. Bodemeister $660,000
10. Hero of Order $617,375*
11. I'll Have Another $601,000
12. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
13. Liaison $393,000
14. Alpha $380,000
15. Prospective $367,327
16. Trinniberg $324,500
17. Done Talking $311,000
18. Went the Day Well $282,000
19. Rousing Sermon $270,000
20. Mark Valeski $260,000
21. El Padrino $250,000
22. Isn't He Clever $191,333
23. Optimizer $184,708
24. Castaway $162,667
25. Currency Swap $150,000
25. The Lumber Guy $150,000
27. My Adonis $140,000
28. Brother Francis $135,000
29. All Squared Away $129,400
(*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby.)
Excluding Hero of Order, who is not nominated to the Derby, we see that the top twenty concludes with Mark Valeski and El Padrino, a pair of colts that seemed to be in danger of not making the cut a few weeks ago.
An interesting, if only slight, modification to the top twenty is that Liaison has been confirmed as a starter. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Indian Charlie won the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) as a juvenile, but disappointed in three starts at Santa Anita this year.
This confirmation will make things difficult for any colts below El Padrino, for they would now need one of the major contenders to drop out in order to make the field. Hopefully, this will not happen, but it's worth noting that for the last three years, the Derby favorite -- not just any old Derby starter -- has been scratched in the final days before the race.
Now, let's assume for a moment that one of the top twenty contenders were to scratch from consideration due to one reason or another. The beneficiary of this move would be Isn't He Clever, runner-up in the Sunland Derby (gr. III). However, his connections have already mentioned that they are not really leaning toward running him in the Derby; instead, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) or the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) would be a more likely spot.
So if Isn't He Clever were not entered, then Optimizer could take advantage of the situation. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the colt has shown a great deal of promise throughout his career, but has actually never won anything but a maiden special weight. However, he did finish a fast-closing second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) two starts back, suggesting that he has enough ability to warrant a start in the Derby.
Next on the list is Castaway, winner of the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year. But since then, he has performed dismally in both the Sunland Derby (gr. III) and the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would run him even if the colt did have sufficient graded earnings.
Below him are Currency Swap and The Lumber Guy, both at $150,000. Currency Swap won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile, but was beaten by a large margin in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) after a rough trip. The Lumber Guy is coming off of a victory in the one-mile Jerome Stakes (gr. II), but the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby is likely out of his scope. Instead, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) has been mentioned as a potential goal.
So let's back out for a moment and look at the big picture. As of right now, El Padrino would be the last colt to make the cutoff. If any horse in the top twenty were to be injured, then it is likely that Optimizer would be the one to take advantage of the situation. But if a second colt were to drop out of consideration, then it is very difficult to say for sure which horse would sneak into that twentieth spot. Would Currency Swap or The Lumber Guy be entered? What about My Adonis? Would Brother Francis ship in at the last minute?
Hopefully, we will never find out. Hopefully, all of the top twenty contenders will remain sound and fulfill their owners' Derby dreams. But it's certainly not impossible that we could see a very little-known name sneak into the Derby under the right conditions.
-Keelerman
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