(As the Derby is now just six days away, this will be my final Top Twelve of the year. Following the release of entries and post positions on Wednesday, I shall do my best to handicap the race and have my selections readied by Friday. Enjoy!)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday afternoon and is expected to breeze tomorrow morning. So long as it's a decent breeze that gets a little extra fitness into him, it should set him up well for the Derby. It will be interesting to see what the track is like tomorrow, as it was quite muddy today and more rain is expected.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He looked really, really good on Saturday when he breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5 over a very muddy track while galloping out in terrific fashion. He cannot be coming into the race any better, and I may end up picking him to win the race if he draws a good post position.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
I will admit that I wasn't quite sure why Patrick Byrne chose to give him his final work nine days before the race, but it's beginning to look like one of the smartest moves any trainer has made this year along the Derby trail. By working him a stiff five furlongs on April 26th, he was able to breeze his colt over a fast track -- avoiding the heavy rain that has hit Florida over the last couple of days. He ships to Churchill on Tuesday.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Union Rags, he could not have looked any better in his final workout, as Bodemeister breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5 over a muddy track that he seemed to handle very well. Obviously, he's got a lot to overcome -- the Apollo Curse, for one, and to a lesser extent, his own running style -- but this may be a year in which his raw talent is able to trump everything else.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
On April 28th, he turned in what was described as a "maintenance work", going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He probably didn't need to go any faster, seeing that he won the Blue Grass Stakes just two weeks ago, but it's worth mentioning that his final breeze prior to the Blue Grass was a stiff five furlongs in :57 2/5.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Wood Memorial winner breezed four furlongs in :50.39 over a muddy track this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. On the surface, it didn't appear to be a very fast time, but it was actually the quickest breeze of the day at that distance. His training has been thrown off just a bit due to poor weather in Florida, but he didn't really need to turn in a serious breeze today and it shouldn't affect him. Like Take Charge Indy, he ships to Churchill on Tuesday.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
The fact that he underwent shock wave therapy on his back a few days ago had me a little concerned, but he came right back and breezed six furlongs in an excellent 1:13 4/5 on April 27th, so I'm not too worried now. He arrived at Churchill on Saturday, but he'll probably just gallop up to the Derby.
8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He has apparently overcome the issues that modified his training schedule, for he looked terrific breezing five furlongs in a bullet :59.54 at the Belmont Park training track yesterday. He is expected to arrive at Churchill Downs sometime tomorrow, where he will gallop up to the Derby. It's looking like Rajiv Maragh, who rode him in the workout, will ride him in the Derby.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He turned in a really nice workout in company with Derby Kitten on Saturday, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 while being asked to run inside of his workmate toward the end of the work. It's interesting to note that he has been training at the Churchill training track, rather than at Churchill Downs itself.
10. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
On Saturday, he worked five furlongs at Churchill Downs while wearing blinkers for the first time and really could not have looked much better. Breezing in company with Crimson China, he went the distance in 1:01 flat, a considerably quicker work than the ones he has recorded in the past. He seems to like the Churchill Downs dirt, and it's just possible that we might see a Team Valor repeat.
11. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
Whether or not he runs in the Derby is hinged on how well he works at Churchill Downs tomorrow. He seems to be somewhat forgotten, with all the discussion over the favorite's workouts dominating the headlines, but he really seems to be coming into this race in good fashion, and so long as he works well tomorrow, it should set him up for a peak effort on Saturday.
12. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I decided to drop him a couple of spots following the very slow :53.34 half-mile breeze this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center, the co-slowest workout of the day. Granted, the work did come over a slow, muddy track, but this is a colt that looked simply fabulous winning an allowance race in the slop earlier this year, and I would have liked to have seen something a bit quicker from this colt. After all, Gemologist's workout over the same track on the same day was nearly three seconds quicker.
Other Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
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