Saturday, April 14, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- April 13th, 2012

Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action, including I'll Have Another's impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Gemologist's determined triumph over Alpha in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I). Enjoy!

Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)

My general impression of this race was that the top three finishers all ran spectacular races. I'll Have Another should be given a great deal of credit for his victory, for winning a race like that off of a two-month layoff -- and only his second start in seven months -- is not an easy task. Furthermore, he was a bit wide all the way around the racetrack, whereas the two horses immediately behind him got ground-saving rail trips.

As for Creative Cause, I thought he ran very well while racing without blinkers for the first time. The fact that he was able to race along the rail for the entire race and dive through a narrow hold around the far turn would seem to say that he will have no trouble with such scenarios in the Kentucky Derby. He did drift around somewhat when struck by the whip in the stretch, but settled down and finished strongly once the whip was put away and nearly outfinished the winner.

Blueskiesnrainbows, who was beaten just three-quarters of a length for everything, turned in a somewhat surprising performance, seeing that the former claimer was sent off at 42-1 and nearly pulled off a gate-to-wire upset. Under Joe Talamo, the colt opened up a 2 1/2 length lead early on while setting a fairly moderate pace of :23.11, :47.11, and 1:11.14. A fourth quarter in :24.22 nearly sealed the deal, as he led by a half-length passing the eighth pole, but just couldn't find enough late to stem off the late runs from I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. While he lacks the necessary graded earnings to enter the Kentucky Derby, he strikes me as a colt that could be a serious Preakness Stakes (gr. I) contender.

As for the rest, Paynter certainly ran well to finish fourth in what was not only his stakes and two-turn debut, but also his second start and his first beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. He is going to get much better with time and experience, so be sure to watch out for him in the future. Liaison disappointed once again, finishing a distant sixth, which makes me suspect that he may be best over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, where he won the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes last year. Midnight Transfer, who finished seventh, never got into contention after racing very wide throughout.

Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)

Both the victorious Gemologist and the runner-up Alpha ran very well in this spot, thoroughly outclassing their opponents despite difficult trips. Gemologist looked simply terrific while bring his record to a perfect 5-for-5, as he was hung wide on both turns before powering clear in the homestretch. He seemed to lose focus a bit when he struck the front, but started running again when Alpha challenged him and dug in for a determined victory. I have the feeling that he had more left in the tank than he appeared to.

As for Alpha, he had to check pretty hard on the first turn, and was subsequently stuck along the rail for most of the race. Despite this, he hooked to the outside turning for home and charged hard to fall just a neck short. He proved to me that he can handle traffic and adversity, which will be useful in the Kentucky Derby.

Teeth of the Dog surprised me just a bit by finishing strongly for third. Unfortunately, he lacks the necessary graded earnings to make the Derby field. Perhaps we shall see him later this spring in the Preakness (gr. I) or the Belmont (gr. I).

Illinois Derby (gr. II)

Done Talking looked pretty good in the Illinois Derby (gr. II), charging from well off the pace to secure a clear victory. Admittedly, the final time was very, very slow -- 1:53.88 -- but the track was playing on the slow side all day. However, the final eighth in :14.03, following a fourth-quarter in :26.71, probably made Done Talking's late run look better than it really was.

Nevertheless, let's give some credit to Done Talking for managing to weave his way through traffic to secure a solid victory. Perhaps it wasn't the fastest performance we have ever seen, and perhaps it didn't earn him a very high speed figure, but the winner's purse $300,000 is enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby.

Morgan's Guerrilla ran very well too. The speedy colt was hung wide throughout, but was nevertheless able to open up a clear lead in deep stretch. He briefly looked home free, but Done Talking's late run simply proved too strong to hold off. He should only improve off of this effort.

But perhaps the most impressive performance in the race came from Hakama, who finished third. The usually speedy colt was bumped at the break, causing him to drop back to last. Sixteen lengths behind with three-eighths of a mile to go, Hakama made a seven-wide bid in the stetch to get up for third, beaten just 2 1/4 lengths. He'll be one to keep an eye on in the future.

As for favored Currency Swap, he was bumped hard and hung wide on the turns, which not surprisingly led to him throwing in the towel on the far turn. His eleventh-place finish should probably be forgiven.

Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)

Trinniberg proved that he may be the best three-year-old sprinter in the country right now when he dominated his rivals in the Bay Shore Stakes. Never really threatened, the speedy colt broke well and went straight to the lead, setting a moderate early pace and finishing fast late to score by three lengths. Hardened Wildcat finished up well despite the slow pace to finish a clear second, 5 1/2 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. He'll be one to watch in the future, so long as he has a fast pace in front of him.

Comely Stakes (gr. III)

Broadway's Alibi, not surprisingly, triumphed as the favorite in this one-mile event, leading the field from start-to-finish to win by 3 1/2 lengths. The Todd Pletcher-trainee gave the impression of having just a touch of stamina limitations, but she has nevertheless won four straight races and should be tough to beat in any one-turn race filly race in the country. A decision on whether or not she will start in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) next month is still being made.

Disappointing was Millionreasonswhy, who got a dream trip along the rail, but just didn't finish up like she should have, eventually winding up third. She should improve off of this effort.

Ashland Stakes (gr. I)

Stephanie's Kitten may have been the heavy favorite, but it was Karlovy Vary who took the $500,000 Ashland Stakes (gr. I) in gate-to-wire fashion. The daughter of Dynaformer got off to an excellent start and set a moderate pace of :24.34 and :48.97. From there, the race was hers to lose, and she did not give up her advantage. Hard Not to Like and Stephanie's Kitten attempted to make runs at her in the homestretch, but Karlovy Vary held them off safely to win by three-quarters of a length, with Hard Not to Like finishing second, 1 1/2 lengths clear of Stephanie's Kitten. The final time was 1:44.82.

Other Races of Note

*At Gulfstream Park last Saturday, Todd Pletcher unleashed yet another promising three-year-old maiden in Graydar, a son of Unbridled's Song. The colt was sent off as the third choice in a one-mile maiden special weight, but apparently should have been the odds-on favorite, for he got off to a great start and set a moderate pace before finishing up his final quarter in :24.23 to win by 8 1/2 lengths in the very sharp time of 1:35.78. Seeing that he was never really asked for a serious run, it's hard to imagine just how good this colt might be.

*At Santa Anita Park on April 12th, Achilles brought his record to a perfect 2-for-2 with an impressive victory in a one-mile turf race. After tracking a very moderate early pace of :24.14, :48.89, and 1:13.14, the son of Smart Strike finished up powerfully, with a final quarter in about :22.98, to win by a length while under a long hold late. The American Turf Stakes (gr. II) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard has been mentioned as a possible goal for the Neil Drysdale-trainee.

-Keelerman

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