(Welcome to part II of my Kentucky Derby graded earnings analysis, a comprehensive series of posts examining the graded earnings list which is used to determine which twenty three-year-olds will be allowed to compete in the Kentucky Derby. To view part I, click here!)
Since writing part one of this series, four rich Kentucky Derby prep races have been run, including a trio of million dollar events. Two of the races were won in surprising upsets, leaving some of also-rans in dire need of graded earnings.
Let's take a moment now to review the current graded earnings list:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030
3. Union Rags $1,170,000
4. Creative Cause $836,000
5. Wrote $756,630
6. Gemologist $703,855
7. Take Charge Indy $698,400
8. Hero of Order $615,500*
9. Sabercat $601,429
10. I'll Have Another $601,000
11. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
12. Secret Circle $470,000
13. Yang Tse Kiang $422,211
14. Dullahan $405,000
15. Liaison $393,000
16. Alpha $380,000
17. Prospective $365,452
18. Trinniberg $324,500
19. Done Talking $311,000
20. Went the Day Well $282,000
21. Rousing Sermon $270,000
22. Mark Valeski $260,000
23. El Padrino $250,000
24. Reveron $220,000
25. Isn't He Clever $188,000
26. Optimizer $181,735
27. Castaway $162,000
28. Currency Swap $150,000
29. My Adonis $140,000
30. Brother Francis $135,000
31. Battle Hardened $127,000
32. Mr. Bowling $115,848
33. Lucky Chappy $115,000
34. Longview Drive $102,834
35. Scatman $100,000
35. Teeth of the Dog $100,000
35. Morgan's Guerrilla $100,000
38. Shared Property $99,700
39. Stirred Up $96,000
40. Howe Great $90,000
40. Tiger Walk $90,000
40. Blueskiesnrainbows $90,000
43. Jake Mo $85,000
44. News Pending $80,000
45. Motor City $78,383
46. Handsome Mike $73,500
47. Golden Ticket $70,000
48. Bodemeister $60,000
49. Z Dager $57,500
*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby
Last week, I mentioned three major Derby contenders that were still in need of a great deal of additional graded cash, specifically, Bodemeister, Mark Valeski, and Gemologist. Two of them ran last weekend, with mixed results. Gemologist won the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), with the winner's purse of $600,000 shoving his total graded earnings to $703,855 -- more than enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby.
Mark Valeski, on the other hand, finished second in the Louisiana Derby after throwing a shoe sometime during the race. Beaten a half-length, the difference between first and second was a total of $400,000 -- enough to potentially keep him out of the Derby.
Going into the Louisiana Derby, Mark Valeski had a total of $60,000 in graded earnings. The $200,000 he earned for finishing second has put him into the 22nd position on the earnings list. Chances are he will still make the Derby field, for Hero of Order and Yang Tse Kiang are by no means guaranteed to run in the race, the latter colt espcially. In addition, it is almost doubtless that a few colts will drop out of contention during the coming weeks, due to injury, sickness, or otherwise.
However, some of the colts lower down on the list, such as Isn't He Clever, Optimizer, Jake Mo, Bodemeister, Scatman, Howe Great, and Golden Ticket, will be racing this Saturday in the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). And aside from those, colts with little to no graded earnings -- like Ever So Lucky, Holy Candy, Russian Greek, Gung Ho, Atigun, and Najjaar -- will also be competing. A first- or second-place finish from the first-mentioned colts would secure them spots in the Derby, while upset victories by colts from the second group could get them into the Derby.
Pretend, for a moment, that Holy Candy and Scatman were to run 1-2 in the Blue Grass Stakes, upping their respective graded earnings to $450,000 and $250,000. And pretend that Najjaar closes late to nab Optimizer in the shadow of the Oaklawn Park finish line, thus adjusting their graded earnings to $600,000 and $381,735. Now imagine for a minute what that would do to the graded earnings list!
Let's also take a quick glance at Bodemeister, who will have to win the Arkansas Derby to guarantee himself a berth in the Derby; after all, a runner-up effort would move his graded earnings up to only $260,000, putting him in a tie for 22nd with Mark Valeski. Once again, horses dropping out of contention will surely adjust this list a great deal, but for now, that is the situation.
As for Reveron, he is being pointed toward a potential start in the $200,000 Lexington Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland on April 21st in an attempt to secure some additional last-minute graded earnings. A victory by him in that race would put his graded earnings at $340,000, virtually assuring him a berth in the Derby.
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(Part III of this series shall be posted in the days following the results of the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby. Until then, keep an eye on any developments in regards to which horses are pointing toward which races!)
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