Lexington Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the Keeneland Polytrack
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Morgan's Guerrilla | Julien Leparoux |
| 2 | Summer Front | Ramon Dominguez |
| 3 | Johannesbourbon | Garrett Gomez |
| 4 | Skyring | Jon Court |
| 5 | Golden Ticket | M. R. Cruz |
| 6 | Holiday Promise | Junior Alvarado |
| 7 | Castaway | Shaun Bridgmohan |
| 8 | Hammers Terror | Robby Albarado |
| 9 | All Squared Away | Alan Garcia |
| 10 | News Pending | Kent Desormeaux |
| 11 | Gold Megillah | John Velazquez |
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Castaway, from the barn of Bob Baffert. The son of Street Sense was a well-regarded Derby contender following an impressive 3 3/4 length victory in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), but failed badly in his only start since then, finishing a very distant seventh in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) last month. That effort can probably be chalked up to the very fast pace which he helped set, but he probably won't get a much easier lead today. Coupled with the fact that he is switching from dirt to Polytrack, I think that while he certainly deserves respect in this spot, he is a beatable favorite.
If so, who can beat him? Summer Front and News Pending will undoubtedly receive some support in the betting. The first-mentioned colt is undefeated in three starts, including a pair of minor stakes victories last year. However, he hasn't raced in four months, which leaves one to wonder if he will be sharp enough to win. On the other hand, he has turned in some good workouts as of late, and will have two-time Eclipse award winner Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. Expect him to be coming strongly from just off the pace.
As for News Pending, he looked like a rising star when he finished a strong second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) back in February, but could only manage a seventh-place finish in the Florida Derby (gr. I) three weeks ago. He does have some good efforts over turf, which could potentially translate to a strong performance over the Keeneland Polytrack this afternoon, but breaking from post position ten, he could potentially find himself hung wide on both turns. Which News Pending will show up today? That's a difficult question.
Morgan's Guerrilla and Holiday Promise both look like good horses, too. Holiday Promise, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, looked great last time out when finishing second in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) behind Went the Day Well, a race in which he made a strong middle move before flattening out just a bit late. Morgan's Guerrilla enters off of just two weeks rest, having finished a strong second to Done Talking in the $500,000 Illinois Derby (gr. III) after getting hung wide on both turns. Both colts are eligible to improve today, but of the pair, I like Holida Promise best.
Golden Ticket didn't look like anything special at the beginning of his career, for he lost all four of his starts as a juvenile and brought his losing streak to five with a loss in his first start of 2012. But the colt has improved rapidly since then, breaking his maiden by two lengths at Gulfstream on February 11th before finishing a strong second to Prospective in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) last month. He does have a pair of starts over the Keeneland Polytrack, having finished third and fourth in a pair of maiden races here last fall, but has obviously improved a great deal since then and would appear to have a major shot at winning this race.
Very intriguing at odds of 8-1 is Johannesbourbon, who will be stretching out and facing winners for the first time today in what will be only his second start. Trained by Kellyn Gorder, the son of Johannesburg looked great in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Turfway Park last month, drawing away powerfully to win by 9 3/4 lengths. This is not an easy spot for a horse to make his second start, but the colt signaled his readiness with a sharp five-furlong work in :48 2/5 here at Keeneland on April 17th. He looks like the speed of the race to me, and although it is difficult to say how far he will take them, it's certainly possible that he could win in gate-to-wire fashion.
Gold Megillah may be 10-1 on the morning line, but he may have a better chance at winning than many think. Last time out, he finished a fast-closing third in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths by Flashy Dresser and Gung Ho. The form of that race was vindicated last weekend when Flashy Dresser won the Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes at Charles Town, just a few hours after Gung Ho ran a strong third in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Based on this alone, Gold Megillah desrves consideration, and when one takes into account that he is trained by Graham Motion and will be ridden by John Velazquez, I think that this colt could be a very serious contender.
This brings us to the three longshots, Hammers Terror, Skyring, and All Squared Away. Hammers Terror looked like a budding star in his first three starts, which yielded a pair of victories and a nose defeat, but disappointing efforts in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) and Black Gold Stakes have cause him to be virtually forgotten. But in that Black Gold Stakes, he was beaten just two lengths by subsequent Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Hero of Order despite being steadied in deep stretch. Furthermore, he did break his maiden here at Keeneland last fall in a highly impressive performance. Given these facts, it's reasonable to say that Hammers Terror should not be 30-1 on the morning line, and might actually have a decent shot at hitting the board.
As for Skyring, he looked good breaking his maiden two back by a neck at Oaklawn Park, but subsequently finished a distant seventh in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) after stumbling at the start. He's probably better than he showed in that race, but this will be his first start over a synthetic surface, and he's facing a pretty tough field of horses today. Being by English Channel, he might enjoy the switch to synthetic, but you never know.
Finally, we come to All Squared Away. 50-1 on the morning line, his only victory from eight strarts came in a maiden special weight at Golden Gate Fields on January 22nd, in which he finished the 1 1/16th miles race in a slow 1:47 1/5. A subsequent seventh-place finish in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) seemed to stamp him as a rather low-quality three-year-old. However, I really liked his last performance, which was a sixth-place finish in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). He was next-to-last early on, but made a strong move on the far turn while racing five wide to get into contention before flattening out to be beaten 9 1/2 lengths. He has since switched barns, moving from the care of trainer Peter Miller to Wesley Ward, and turned in a decent breeze on April 13th. He'll be a huge longshot, but I really, really believe that this horse is up to turning in a good performance.
Here are my selections:
1 Johannesbourbon
2 Holiday Promise
3 All Squared Away
4 Gold Megillah
And here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Gold Megillah
2 Summer Front
3 Holiday Promise
4 Castaway
Other Races of Note
At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .
Race 9: The $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) orginally drew a field of seven, but the scratch of Right to Vote has reduced the field to six. Favoritism will probably be between The Lumber Guy and Stirred Up; the first-mentioned colt being an impressive front-running sprinter that ran fifth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) two weeks ago that is now dropping back down in distance. They'll have to catch him to beat him. Stirred Up defeated the highly-regarded Holy Candy two starts back, then finished third in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last time out. If the pace is quick, he should be coming fast late. Adirondack King ran good but not great in a pair of two-turn Derby preps at Oaklawn, and is now cutting back to a one-turn mile. He should be much sharper today.
My selections are:
1 The Lumber Guy
2 Brigand
3 Adirondack King
4 Stirred Up
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Adirondack King
2 The Lumber Guy
3 Stirred Up
4 Dan and Sheila
-Keelerman
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