Here are my extensive recaps of last week's major racing action, including the surprising upsets in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Louisiana Derby (gr. II), in which a trio of well-regarded Derby contenders were defeated by longshots that few had expected to win. Enjoy!
Stakes Recaps
Florida Derby (gr. I)
Thoughts: In the days following the running of the Florida Derby, I have given a great deal of thought to the stunning defeats of Union Rags and El Padrino. Here's my take:
Calvin Borel won the race on the far turn.
Basically, while Javier Castellano and El Padrino were keeping Union Rags pinned in behind horses, Calvin Borel and Take Charge Indy were busy slowing the pace down over a speed-favoring track. But even still, I don't think that's what did it.
It was the fourth quarter mile fraction -- from the three-eighths pole to the eighth pole -- that won the race. During that time, Take Charge Indy ran a quarter mile in a quick :23.87. During this same period of time, Union Rags went from three lengths behind Take Charge Indy to 3 1/2 lengths behind -- meaning that Union Rags ran his own fourth quarter is roughly :23.97.
So my take on the race is that Take Charge Indy's quick fourth quarter sapped the late run from Union Rags. Although it appeared as though Union Rags was buried along the fence in traffic, he was in fact running very fast indeed -- but getting nowhere. Had Take Charge Indy instead run his fourth quarter in, say, :24 4/5, Union Rags' :23.97 fraction would have been more than enough to catch him and blow right by. But because Take Charge Indy had such a quick quarter left in the tank, Union Rags' own quick quarter was rendered completely meaningless.
From there, the race was over. Passing the eighth pole, Take Charge Indy held a 3 1/2 length lead over Union Rags and wasn't really tiring. His final furlong in :12.83 was more than enough to hold off Union Rags, who closed strongly late but was still beaten 1 1/4 lengths while finishing third.
Now, don't get me wrong. I thought Union Rags actually ran very well. His final eighth of approximately :12.38 was an excellent fraction, and his final three-eighths in around :36 2/5 was also quite good, especially when one considers that he did have to wait for room entering the stretch. It should do wonders for his fitness and set him up well for a peak effort on Derby day.
As for El Padrino, who wound up being beaten three lengths while finishing fourth, he was caught very wide around both turns and just didn't level out late. But seeing that he did lose ground on both turns, I'm leaning toward drawing a line through this performance and hoping his runs back to his previous form in subsequent races.
Finally, let me say that Reveron also ran well, running roughly the same race as Take Charge Indy. However, while Take Charge Indy appeared to have something left in the tank at the end of the race, Reveron seemed to be at the end of his distance capablities. Nevertheless, it was a very good effort, and he could turn out to be a nice colt in the future.
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
Now, let me say it right now, I did like Hero of Order fairly well going into the Louisiana Derby. Not to win, but to crack the superfecta. And I thought that his odds of 109-1 were much, much too high.
But never did I expect him to win -- at least, not until the Louisiana Derby field turned for home.
At that point, Hero of Order had managed to escape through very moderate fractions of :47.27 and 1:11.55 -- and this coming on the same day that the nine-furlong track record was broken. So when the field turned for home, I suspected that Mark Valeski and Cigar Street -- the two favorites, both making bold runs for the lead -- would not be catching Hero of Order easily.
But even still, I figured that both colts, especially Mark Valeski, would be able to reel in the runaway longshot and secure victory. But in the vicinity of the eighth pole, those assumptions faded away, replaced by the budding suspicion that Hero of Order would not be stopping.
Without taking my eyes away from the race, I muttered four words to Dan J, a fellow horse racing enthusiast who was watching the race with me.
"Ninety. Nine. To one."
99-1 or 109-1, it didn't matter. We both watched in awe as Hero of Order held off Mark Valeski to win by a half-length, with Rousing Sermon charging late for third.
***
Of course, as typically happens in major horse races, a few surprising facts emerged following the upset victory. First off, Hero of Order is not nominated to the Triple Crown. Secondly, it would cost his connections $200,000 to nominate him at this late stage. Thirdly, it still wouldn't guarantee him a spot in the starting gate -- early nominees are given preference over late nominees in the Derby field, and if twenty early nominees were to be entered in the Kentucky Derby, then Hero of Order would be excluded from the field, regardless of his status as the Louisiana Derby winner.
Then, it was revealed that Mark Valeski emerged from the race with some cuts and a missing shoe. This clearly had something to do with his dull performance, and would explain why he couldn't catch a longshot that was closing his final eighth in a slow :13.47. Assuming Mark Valeski continues to train well, it shouldn't affect his chances in the Kentucky Derby. After all, last year's Derby third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man was coming into the race off of a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, in which he too had lost a shoe.
Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II)
While heavily favored Summer Applause ran very well in the Fair Grounds Oaks, the star of the show was Believe You Can, who rebounded sharply from a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) to win the biggest filly race at Fair Grounds by a head. Despite being in the tough position of having to press a fast pace while down along the rail, Believe You Can was nevertheless able to burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and hold off an impressive late run from Summer Applause to win in narrow fashion. Both fillies look like they could be major contenders in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) next month.
Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II)
Like Believe You Can, Grace Hall rebounded from a defeat to win a major Kentucky Oaks prep race, taking the Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) in highly impressive fashion. Coming off of a defeat in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), Grace Hall did have some questions to answer, but those question evaporated when she left her rivals in the dust en route to a 6 1/2 length triumph. The fact that Zo Impressive -- a good filly in her own right -- wasn't able to get anywhere near the winner, despite making an eye-catching bid around the turn, says wonders about Grace Hall's talent. She could end up being the Kentucky Oaks favorite.
Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)
Going into the Santa Anita Oaks, the race was being billed as a thrilling match race between Eden's Moon, winner of the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I), and Reneesgotzip, runner-up in that same race despite blowing the first turn. In the end, Reneesgotzip was able to turn the tables on her rival while taking both turns in excellent fashion, but her apparant stamina limitations caught up to her in the stretch and it ended up being Willa B Awesome who charged late to win by a nose. While all three fillies ran well, and were seperated by just 1 1/2 lengths at the finish, it would appear as though Willa B Awesome has perhaps the best chance at stretching out to win a race like the Kentucky Oaks. On the other hand, Reneesgotzip did set a very fast pace (three-quarters in 1:09.95) and probably deserves one more chance to try and stretch out.
UAE Derby (UAE-II)
Thoughts: Daddy Long Legs was much the best in this spot, tracking the early leader and taking over turning for home to score a convincing victory in this $2,000,000 event. What I really liked about his performance was the way he burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and stayed on strongly to never let anyone even get close.
Also turning in an interesting performance was Wrote, who ran well to finish third in his first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) last year over the Churchill Downs turf. It sounds like both Daddy Long Legs and Wrote will be coming for the Derby, so that should add some fascinating international interest to the race.
Other Races of Note
There is only one non-stakes race that I shall mention today, that being a seven-furlong maiden special weight that was run at Gulfstream Park last Saturday. The winner was Ez Effort, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that tracked the early pace before drawing away to win by eight lengths in the sharp time of 1:22.06. It's definitely a bit late for Triple Crown contenders to be breaking their maidens, but perhaps this colt will make some noise further down the road.
-Keelerman
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