Santa Anita Derby day is among my favorites for obvious reasons. Not only is the Santa Anita Derby a terrific race in its own right, but a pair of other major Kentucky Derby prep races, the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and the Illinois Derby (gr. III), are traditionally run on the same day as well. Throw in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) for fillies, the Carter Handicap (gr. I) for older sprinters, and Aqueduct's Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III) -- you get the picture. It's going to be a terrific weekend. Let's take a look at who's running!
Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Santa Anita dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Creative Cause | Joel Rosario |
| 2 | Liaison | Rafael Bejarano |
| 3 | Holy Candy | Alonso Quinonez |
| 4 | I'll Have Another | Mario Gutierrez |
| 5 | Longview Drive | Russell Baze |
| 6 | Paynter | Martin Garcia |
| 7 | Senor Rain | Eswan Flores |
| 8 | Midnight Transfer | Mike Smith |
| 9 | Blueskiesnrainbows | Joe Talamo |
| 10 | Brother Francis | Garrett Gomez |
The heavy favorite will undoubtedly be Creative Cause, a three-time graded stakes winner from the barn of Mike Harrington. The son of Giant's Causeway has been among the leading California-based Derby contenders since last summer, and vindicated that status last month when he won the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) by three-quarters of a length, defeating -- among others -- fellow Santa Anita Derby contenders Midnight Transfer and Liaison. He's got enough early speed to be involved early, and more than enough stamina to finish strongly, so he should be able to get a good trip regardless of pace scenario. He's been training very, very well since the San Felipe, signaling that he is still just as sharp, and while Harrington probably doesn't have him fully cranked for a top effort today, he should nevertheless be a tough colt to beat. The only question remaining is the fact that he will race without blinkers today, in an effort to correct the fact that he has been a bit distracted in the homestretch of his recent races. Usually, it is the addition of blinkers that corrects such problems, not the removal, but I'm confident that Harrington knows what he is doing and I'm not really worried about the equipment change.
Second choice on the morning line is I'll Have Another, winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) here at Santa Anita back in February. It's really hard to say what to think of him. His Lewis victory was very impressive, as he was able to track a fairly quick pace and still finish up strongly. However, that was his first race in five months, and he hasn't raced since then; meaning that today's Santa Anita Derby will be only his second start in seven months. One could certainly question his fitness, but he's had a series of excellent, long workouts since then, and he should be a major contender here if not just because there doesn't seem to be a lot of extra speed.
Holy Candy and Liaison are both 8-1 on the morning line, but either one could drop in price as post time approaches, for both appear capable of having at least a mild chance of pulling off an upset. Holy Candy is facing winners for the first time today, having just broken his maiden last time out, but it was the way he did it that was so impressive. Fourth early on while attempting to chase down a loose-on-the-lead Baffert trainee, he had no business rallying fast enough to catch the runaway leader, but did so with an absolutely brilliant turn of foot. If he comes even remotely close to repeating that effort today, he could be a major threat from off the pace.
As for Liaison, he is one of three horses in this race trained by Bob Baffert, and he is also undoubtedly the most accomplished. Winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) as a juvenile, he entered 2012 as one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders, but disappointing efforts in the Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe Stakes -- the former in which he did not finish after losing his rider -- have caused that status to slip away. But he has been training well, and after getting a less-than-perfect trip in the San Felipe, it's possible that was could see this colt run a much improved race; perhaps even enough to secure a victory.
Paynter and Blueskiesnrainbows are the other two from Baffert's barn. Paynter is among the most intriguing horses in the race, simply because he has only a 5-1/2 furlong maiden victory to his credit -- no other starts at all. If he were to win the Santa Anita Derby -- in what would be his first start against winners, in addition to stretching out 3 1/2 furlongs -- he could potentially head to Churchill Downs as one of, if not the, most lightly raced horses ever to run in the race. But I suppose that's putting the cart before the horse. He still has to win the Santa Anita Derby. It's obvious that he has talent, but there are a lot of questions to answer.
As for Blueskiesnrainbows, he is more experienced than Paynter, having made five starts so far, but he too is taking a large step up in class. His lone victories have come against maiden claiming and starter allowance company, and while they were impressive wins, he did not earn very large Beyer speed figure in either. Last time out, he finished third in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race here at Santa Anita, but was beaten 12 1/4 lengths by the victorious Fed Biz. The blinkers are coming off today, which could certainly improve his chances, but it's hard to see him stepping up enough to be a contender against this field. On the other hand, he has been training well, so you never know.
Then there is Midnight Transfer, a son of Hard Spun that is coming off of a third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). Now, he was very impressive in that race, and was only beaten three lengths by Creative Cause, but I have the feeling that this colt may actually by more of a sprinter. After all, his biggest and most impressive victory came in the 6-1/2 San Pedro Stakes earlier in the meet. Furthermore, the way he ran in the San Felipe gave me the impression that he was at the end of his distance abilities. After rating off the pace for much of the race, he was turned loose in the stretch and made a quick, bold run to get into contention, but subsequently flattened out just a bit. To me, that is a sign of a horse that doesn't really want to go that far, but did so because of a perfect, perfect ride. I could be wrong, and I won't be shocked if Midnight Transfer stays the distance again today, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being best as a sprinter further down the road.
Longview Drive and Brother Francis are both longshots (12-1 and 20-1 on the morning line, respectively), but both have excellent chances at outrunning their odds, the latter colt especially. Longview Drive is coming off of a dull effort in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), beaten 6 3/4 lengths while finishing sixth, but he did not get a good trip at all that day, and had previously finished a strong, strong third in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) behind Out of Bounds and Secret Circle, beaten just one length. Given a better trip, he is certainly capable of rebounding to his previous career-best level of performance, and in a race that would appear to lack a great deal of speed, this colt may end up going to the lead and never looking back.
Brother Francis is the longest shot on the morning line, but that's probably because he has never won a race. Despite his maiden status, he has actually placed in a pair of stakes races, having finish second in the Real Quiet Stakes and third in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) as a juvenile. In the latter race, he was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths despite the rider losing his whip in the stretch. The colt has only raced once this year, beaten a head when third in a one-mile turf maiden special weight on March 10th, but that race should set him up well for a peak effort today and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this colt is closing furiously in the stretch. Post ten isn't the greatest, but seeing that he's probably going to be off of the early pace anyway, it shouldn't be much of an issue.
The final colt to discuss is Senor Rain, the most heavily raced horse in the field with ten starts under his belt. As a juvenile, he showed promise while placing in a trio of stakes races, including the Real Quiet Stakes, but he disappointed just a bit earlier this year, when he could only manage a third in the California Derby and a ninth in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). However, he rebounded sharply last time out to win a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming race by 1 1/2 lengths over a pair of good colts in Brigand and Consulado. It was by far the best effort of his career, signaling that dirt sprints may be what he likes best, but he deserves a shot at a race like this, and it wouldn't completely shock me if he ran better than expected.
Here are my selections:
1 Creative Cause
2 Brother Francis
3 Holy Candy
4 I'll Have Another
And here are J.R.'s:
1 I'll Have Another
2 Creative Cause
3 Liaison
4 Longview Drive
Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Aqueduct outer dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Alpha | Ramon Dominguez |
| 2 | Casual Trick | Corey Nakatani |
| 3 | My Adonis | Elvis Trujillo |
| 4 | Teeth of the Dog | Joe Bravo |
| 5 | Street Life | Junior Alvarado |
| 6 | Gemologist | Javier Castellano |
| 7 | Tiger Walk | John Velazquez |
| 8 | The Lumber Guy | Cornelio Velasquez |
The morning line favorite at 8-5 is Gemologist, an undefeated colt from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Tiznow went 3-for-3 as a juvenile, culminating with a strong victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. Given a winter break, he returned on March 16th to win a one-mile allowance race race at Gulfstream Park by all of seven lengths under practically no urging. Now, the fact that his return race was so easy does raise some concerns about his fitness heading into a race of this caliber, but he turned in a bullet five-furlong work on April 1st and would appear to be set for another big effort.
Alpha is also going to be well bet, seeing that he has made Aqueduct his "winter home", if you want to call it that. Although he has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida as of late, he did win both the Count Fleet Stakes and the Wither Stakes (gr. III) over the Aqueduct inner track earlier this winter, and appears to be getting better and better with age -- which is not surprising, seeing that he is a son of the late-maturing Bernardini. He's probably doesn't have as much tactical speed as Gemologist, but he has more than enough stamina to make up for it, and barring something bizarre like an injury, he should be right in contention for a top two finish at the top of the stretch.
Street Life, My Adonis, and The Lumber Guy are other logical contenders. Street Life is lightly raced, and has never faced a field of horses like these, but he's got an unbelievable turn of foot that must be seen to be believed. Last time out, in the Broad Brush Stakes, he looked hopelessly beaten rounding the far turn, yet somehow managed to get up for a half-length victory. Admittedly, this is a huge step up in class, and it wouldn't surprise me if he is soundly beaten. But no matter how far back he is on the far turn, don't count him out. If he uncorks the late run that he is capable of, he will be roaring past horses late.
My Adonis was a good juvenile, but has turned into an even better three-year-old. In his two starts as a sophomore, he has rallied from twenty lengths behind to finish third in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), and tracked the pace en route to a second-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III). Clearly, he can adapt to a number of different pace scenarios, which should make him quite dangerous. He's also got the speed figures to compete with anyone in this race, so his morning line odds of 8-1 would appear to be a bit high. I expect to see him fairly close to the early pace, where he will get first run at the leaders. From there, it's simply a question of "if he is good enough?".
As for The Lumber Guy, he will probably be the pacesetter, seeing that he has gone gate-to-wire in his two starts to date. This will be his first start beyond seven furlongs, so that is a bit of a concern, but he's got so much early speed that he could simply be gone by the time the field enters the homestretch. However, he is dealing with a bit of a quarter crack, which doesn't seem to have affected his training, but you never know.
Teeth of the Dog and Tiger Walk are both 15-1 on the morning line. The first-mentioned colt has hit the board in all three of his races, culminating with a victory in a nine-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on February 4th. He hasn't raced since then, and the fact that there was a one-month gap in his training seems to say that the colt was dealing with some sort of minor issue, but he's breezed three times for this race and the fact that he has already won at this distance is a plus.
Tiger Walk has been somewhat disappointing along the Triple Crown trail so far, finishing third in the Withers (gr. III) and fourth in the Gotham (gr. III) here at Aqueduct, but the best performance of his career came over the Laurel Park dirt track, which suggests that he may not really care for the Aqueduct inner dirt track. Seeing that he won't be racing over it today, I wouldn't count him out of the mix, especially with John Velazquez aboard. I think he can hit the board at a price.
The final colt to mention is Casual Trick, the longshot on the morning line at 20-1. The colt appeared to have a very bright future when he finished a strong second to Reveron in the Gulfstream Park Derby on the first day of this year, and as we all know, Reveron came back to finish second in the Florida Derby (gr. I) last Saturday. However, Casual Trick's next two starts were very disappointing, as he was beaten a combined 50 3/4 lengths in an allowance race and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). However, it sounds like he was suffering from some breathing issues which have since been corrected, so a return to his Gulfstream Park Derby form could make him a dangerous contender here today.
Here are my selections:
1 Gemologist
2 Casual Trick
3 Alpha
4 My Adonis
And here are J.R.'s:
1 My Adonis
2 Alpha
3 Gemologist
4 The Lumber Guy
Other Races of Note
At Hawthorne on Saturday . . .
Race 9: The TVG Illinois Derby (gr. III) has drawn an amazingly large field of seventeen, although two have been scratched at the time I have been writing this, and one more will have to, as the field is limited to fourteen starters. There are too many horses entered to possibly mention them all, but the colts I like are Currency Swap, Z Rockstar, Our Entourage, Morgan's Guerrilla, and Done Talking. Currency Swap won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last year and is making his second start off a lengthy layoff. Z Rockstar won an allowance race in impressive fashion last time out in a manner that suggests he is only now reaching his peak. Our Entrourage, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, ran fifth in a pair of graded stakes races last year and is coming off of a strong victory in a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream. Morgan's Guerrilla won a one-mile and seventy-yard maiden special weight at Aqueduct last time out, but is taking a big step up in class. Done Talking is coming off of a tenth-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), but had previously finished a strong third in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last fall. For the record, I am picking Our Entourage, with Done Talking to crack the superfecta at a price. J.R. has selected Hakama.
At Keeneland on Saturday . . .
Race 8: The $500,000 Ashland Stakes (gr. I), a major Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep race, has drawn a talented field of seven, led by Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) winner Stephanie's Kitten. Seeing that she also won the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) here at Keeneland last year, she shouldn't have much trouble winning a race like this, even though there are some other talented fillies in here. Heart of Destiny, second in the Alcibiades last year, should also be a major contender, as should Karlovy Vary.
At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .
Race 8: Some of the finest three-year-old sprinters in the country are set to face off in the $250,000 Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III), going seven furlongs on the main track. Trinniberg, impressive winner of the Swale Stakes (gr. II) last month at Gulfstream Park, will almost undoubtedly be favored. However, there are a number of colts that could potentially pull off an upset, including Hardened Wildcat, winner of the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes here at Aqueduct on March 10th, and Maan, who is coming off of a thirteenth-place finish in the Gotham (gr. III), but who is also a perfect 2-for-2 in sprints.
-Keelerman
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