1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's going to have to fight for the top spot in the weeks leading up to the Derby, because impressive performances by Bodemeister and Dullahan -- among others -- could move them up my list if they train well at Churchill Downs. But let's remember that this colt beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) back on March 10th. The latter's subsequent victory in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) says something about the amount of Derby talent in California this year.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Breezed a half mile in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows on April 12th, his first breeze since the Florida Derby. Interestingly, it will be his final workout in Florida, for he is shipping to Kentucky earlier than expected. There, he will likely train at Keeneland before heading to Churchill Downs for his final preparation.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
He still hasn't recorded a breeze since the Florida Derby, but I would think that one will come any day now -- perhaps even tomorrow. That would, I assume, set him up for a three-breeze schedule, culminating with a breeze on the Sunday before the Derby. Of course, you never know how these things will go, and you never know how the weather might influence training. But that's my best guess as to what his training schedule will be.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
In the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), he showed the rare ability to run fast early and fast late, setting an excellent pace of :23.02 and :46.55 before powering home his final eighth in :11.97 for a final time of 1:48.71. Now imagine this. One race earlier, in the $400,000 Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) for older males, the very talented Alternation set a pace of :23.91 and :48.30, then ran the final eighth in :12.47 to finish the race in 1:49.94. Behind him were Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) winner Ron the Greek, Donn Handicap (gr. I) winner Hymn Book, and 2011 Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro. I think that says something about Bodemeister's talent.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
His performance in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) was, quite simply, brilliant. After a slow start, he settled off of the pace and stayed their down the backstretch and around the far turn. He appeared to be hopelessly beaten turning into the homestretch, especially when one considers that Hansen was kicking clear of the field. However, when guided to the outside by jockey Kent Desormeaux, Dullahan simply expoloded, making up four lengths inside the eighth pole to win going away by a length and a quarter, stopping the time for nine furlongs in 1:47.94. According to my caculations, he ran his final eighth in roughly :11.68, a brilliant time indeed. This colt is a major, major Derby contender.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He'll head to Churchill Downs as the lone undefeated colt in the race, and certainly as one of the favorites. Being a son of Tiznow out of a Mr. Prospector mare, he shouldn't have any trouble with a mile and a quarter. In addition, the fact that he the tactical speed to be a contender from the start, coupled with the ability to rate behind the leaders, should enable him to get a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
7. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He was supposed to ship to Kentucky today, but did not because he is suffering from some infected cuts suffered during the Wood Memorial (gr. I) when he clipped heels on the fist turn. It may cause him to miss a workout, but he's still on track to make the Derby.
8. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
I should probably have him higher than eighth, but I can't help but think that he is going to bounce in the Kentucky Derby. This is a colt that ran huge off of a five-month layoff to win the Robert B. Lewis, then ran huge again off of two months rest to take the Santa Anita Derby in a very tough performance. He will enter the Derby off of just four weeks rest. Maybe he'll be fine, but it's something to think about.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He did everything he was supposed to in the Blue Grass Stakes. He outsprinted at least four or five other horses to the early lead, settled into stride while setting a good pace of :23.10 and :46.64, turned back a bid from Gung Ho, and kicked clear of the field in the homestretch. The only thing that went wrong was that he didn't win. Despite closing his final eighth in a respectable time, he was mowed down by Dullahan in deep stretch to be beaten by about a length while finishing 2 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. On the surface, he appeared to show signs of stamina limitations, an impression that has plagued him since his victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but he actually was still running pretty strongly in the homestretch. And seeing that most horses are tiring in the Kentucky Derby homestretch anyway -- let us recall that in the 2010 Derby, the final two quarters were run in :27.07 and :26.80 -- I wouldn't worry too much about any potential stamina limitations Hansen might have.
10. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He may not be in the top twenty by graded earnings right now, but there will surely be some defections before the race, and he should get in without any trouble. How big a Derby contender he is going to be will depend in part on how well he trains during the coming weeks. But he did look pretty good on April 15th when he breezed a half-mile in company with Stay Thirsty, going the distance in :49.10.
11. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
Breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat at Keeneland on April 14th, his first workout since winning the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). It was a good first breeze back, but it will be difficult to say just how big a Derby contender he will be until we see how he trains over the Churchill main track.
12. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
He ran about like I thought he would in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), finishing sixth after racing about five lengths off of the early pace. Given that his best performances by far have come on dirt, I'm inclined to forgive his poor Blue Grass showing and write it off as a dislike for the Keeneland Polytrack. After all, it wasn't like he was thrashed -- he was only beaten 6 1/2 lengths and actually looked like he might have a chance to crack the trifecta turning for home. He just didn't seem to have the same acceleration that he does on dirt.
13. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Steve Asmussen
For a couple of days, it sounded as though Mike Smith would be this colt's rider in the Kentucky Derby. However, following Bodemeister's brilliant victory in the Arkansas Derby, Smith decided to stick with that colt instead, allowing Garrett Gomez to pick up the mount on this colt. With a number of speedy colts pointing toward the Derby (Bodemeister, Hansen, Secret Circle, I'll Have Another . . .), the pace of the race could be perfect to set up this colt's late run.
14. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He hasn't recorded a workout since the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), but I guess that's not surprising, considering he did come out of the race a little lame. He's up to position #21 on the Derby earnings list, and that includes Hero of Order, who isn't nominated to the Derby. So basically, it appears as though he's going to make the race.
15. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He ran well enough in the Arkansas Derby, closing from well off the pace to just miss finishing second, but for the third straight race he was well back early on. It worked to perfection in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), but in that race, he was the beneficiary of a blazing speed duel up front. We know he's got more early speed than he's been showing, because in last year's Garden State Stakes he was able to sit between 1 1/2 and 2 1/2 lengths off of a :23.38 and :47.37 pace. That said, his Arkansas Derby performance was a step in the right direction, and it should set him up well for a shot at the Kentucky Derby.
16. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
He looked pretty good in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), charging from well back to finish third, beaten just two lengths. But the final eighth was run in a slow :13.47 seconds, which means that Rousing Sermon ran his own final furlong in about :13 seconds flat -- a decent time, certainly, but not quite as quick as one would want to see in a Derby contender. Nevertheless, his performance was much better than the ones he turned in at Santa Anita earlier this spring, so at least he seems to be moving in the right direction.
17. Done Talking (Broken Vow - Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Hamilton Smith
I somehow overlooked adding him to my top twenty last week, but he clearly deserves to be included. The final time of his Illinois Derby (gr. III) victory may have been slow, and the final furlong was run in a poor :14 seconds, but his late run was visually impressive and a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby could certainly set up his late run. Never say never -- remember Mine That Bird?
18. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
One factor that will undoubtedly be discussed during the coming weeks is the fact that this colt bombed badly in his lone start on dirt, finishing 12th in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) -- at Churchill Downs no less -- beaten grand total of 19 1/2 lengths. But to be perfectly honest, that performance was simply too bad to be believed, and I can't help but think that it was due more to some other factor than a profound dislike for the Churchill Downs main track. He is definitely in good form right now, and has already won at a mile and three-sixteenths, so he certainly deserves a shot at a race like the Derby.
19. Reveron (Songandaprayer - Carolina Sunrise, by Awesome Again) Trained by Agustin Bezara
His trainer has changed plans, and will not run his Florida Derby (gr. I) runner-up in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) in an attempt to pick up some last-minute graded earnings. Instead, he will wait and hope that enough horses are removed from consideration to draw into the race. With colts like Trinniberg already unlikely to enter, Reveron may be closer to getting in than we suspect.
20. Secret Circle (Eddington - Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Bob Baffert
I have to include him in my top twenty, just because he has $670k in graded earnings, but in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) he once again showed stamina limitations, proving no match for his stablemate Bodemeister while drifting out badly in the stretch. He did manage to hold second, but I just can't really see him staying a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Brother Francis
Golden Ticket
Liaison
My Adonis
Optimizer
Paynter
Stirred Up
-Keelerman
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