Six days until the Derby . . .
ON THE WORK TAB
Churchill Downs
* Bodemeister was extremely sharp in his final pre-Derby workout, going five furlongs in :59 3/5 while working in company with Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender Jemima's Pearl. The track was muddy following a large hailstorm the night before, but Bodemeister seemed to handle the track very well and shouldn't mind if the track were to be muddy again on Derby day. It's worth remembering that Bodemeister's sire, Empire Maker, won the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in a sea of slop.
* Although he isn't in the race yet, Optimizer -- who currently sits 21st on the graded earnings list -- continues to train as though he will make the race. This morning, he went five furlongs in the good time of 1:00 2/5, closing his final eighth in :12 2/5 and his final quarter in :24 2/5. Should he make the Derby field, it is expected that Jon Court -- who rode the colt in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) -- would have the mount.
Palm Meadows Training Center
* It seems that trainer Todd Pletcher is pretty much alone at Palm Meadows right now, for seven of the eight horses that breezed there this morning are Pletcher trainees. That group of seven included his two Derby hopefuls, El Padrino and Gemologist, who each went a half-mile over a track labeled muddy. From the standpoint of final time, Gemologist's breeze was much more impressive, for his time of :50.39 -- while slow -- was the fastest work of the day, and nearly three seconds faster than El Padrino's :53.34. Both colts worked in company, with Gemologist breezing alongside 2011 Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner Disposablepleasure and El Padrino going in company with the talented maiden winner Windsurfer. Without knowing the details of either workout, it's difficult to for sure whether El Padrino's slow time was due to a disdain for the mud or just a slow opening pace, but it would have been nice to see something a bit quicker from a colt that has already proven himself to be rather fond of mud.
Kentucky Oaks Workouts
A trio of Kentucky Oaks contenders breezed this morning at a pair of racetracks, led by the tentative Oaks favorite Grace Hall, who went a half-mile in a slow :52.10 at Palm Meadows over a track labeled sloppy. At Churchill Downs, Jemima's Pearl -- as mentioned above -- breezed in company with Bodemeister, and was credited with a five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, the fourth-fastest breeze of the day.
But by far the most impressive work was turned in by Believe You Can, who worked a bullet five furlongs at Churchill in :58 2/5, the fastest breeze of the day by 1 1/5 seconds. It was actually the second bullet breeze turned in by Believe You Can since arriving at Churchill, the other being a :59 flat work turned in on April 23rd. It appears as though the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) winner is sitting on another big race heading into the Kentucky Oaks, where she will likely be among the favorites.
IN OTHER DERBY NEWS . . .
* Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Rousing Sermon arrived at Churchill yesterday afternoon in good order, and visited the racetrack this morning. Creative Cause is scheduled to breeze tomorrow. Also expected for tomorrow's work tab are Derby contenders Daddy Nose Best, Liaison, Mark Valeski, Sabercat, and Trinniberg, the latter expected to go an easy three-eighths of a mile.
* The questions of which jockeys will ride Alpha and Rousing Sermon remain open to debate, although it does sound as though Rajiv Maragh has pretty much secured the mount on Alpha. The Rousing Sermon mystery remains very much in question. I doubt it will happen, but how about Patrick Valenzuela, who returned to racing on April 26th?
* The first card of the spring meet at Churchill Downs was held last night, with the The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) the highlight of the day. The dominating rider was Julien Leparoux, who won four of the eleven races of the card. Miguel Mena won a pair of races, while Calvin Borel, Shaun Bridgmohan, Leandro Goncalves, Brian Hernandez, Jr., and John McKee each won one apiece. Gregory Foley was the leading trainer of the day, as his two starters each won, giving him a one-win lead over nine other trainers.
After briefly glancing at the results of the day's races, a couple of things stood out. For the first four races on the card, there didn't seem to be a distinct track bias. Every race was won by horses racing on or close to the lead, but those four winners included three favorites and a second choice. After the fourth race, a sudden hailstone left the racetrack sloppy and sealed. The next two races were won by horses making bold runs on the outside, but the seventh race went to Calvin Borel with a rail-skimming ride.
The next race was the Derby Trial, which was won in impressive fashion by Hierro, who made a strong bid on the outside to defeat Paynter by a length and a half. Paynter himself had made a strong run on the outside, but just couldn't keep up in the stretch. Third-place finisher Stealcase came into the stretch four wide, while Bourbon Courage rounded out the superfecta after a wide trip. The only colt that even remotely ran well along the fence was The Black, who led into the stretch before flattening out and finishing fifth.
The ninth race was won by Speedacious, who -- according to the Equibase chart -- "set the pace off the rail". The runner-up "pressed the pace three wide." I Knot, who finished third, raced "within striking distance off the rail, moved out for wide leaving the turn . . ." Miss Dora, who finished fourth, raced "within reach off the inside". Bella Diamante and Cascadilla Falls, both raced along the rail and tired badly.
In race ten, the top five finishers in the seven horse field raced on the outside, while the two trailers tired badly after shifting to the rail for racing room.
The final race of the day continued the trend, as outside horses swept the top five positions while horses making inside bids tired badly.
In conclusion, it would appear as though an outside bias dominated the final races of the card, getting progressively stronger as the night advanced. It is doubtful that this bias will continue once the track dries out, but it's something to watch out for during the next couple of Churchill race cards.
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment