(My apologies for not posting one of these last week. I have been very busy! So this week's Top Twenty actually contains two weeks worth of modifications. Note, however, that Hero of Order has not been included in these lists due to the fact that he has not been nominated to the Triple Crown.)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
His body of work allows him to maintain the top spot, despite his narrow loss in the Santa Anita Derby. I thought he ran very well in defeat, and very well without the blinkers. The fact that he went through that rail hole so boldly tells me that he won't have much trouble finding openings in a race like the Derby. On a side note, it's becoming clear that he doesn't care for being struck with the whip, seeing that he tends to drift whenever that occurs.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
There are at least a half-dozen reasons explaining why Union Rags lost the Florida Derby, including slow pace, traffic, and the lack of a really serious workout prior to the race. But regardless, he did run very well in defeat and looked good in the gallop out. He'll be heading to Kentucky soon.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
His upset victory in the Florida Derby was, in my opinion, highly impressive. His fourth quarter in :23.87 seconds is the kind of stuff that wins the Derby. What makes this colt so dangerous is the fact that he has now proven himself capable of racing on the lead or off the pace, which will enable him to adapt to any potential pace scenario in the Derby.
4. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Don't be fooled by the slow final time of the Wood Memorial. His victory in that race was much more impressive than the final time implies. After being caught wide on both turns, the colt made a bold bid to take the lead entering the stretch, and -- after seemingly losing focus and easing himself up -- he held off a strong late run from Alpha to win by a neck while drawing away again at the finish.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
His :57 2/5-second breeze on April 8th signifies that he is dead-ready for Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on Saturday, where he will have to be sharp to defeat the likes of Hansen. But he may just be capable of doing that, seeing that he did win the $500,000 Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland as a juvenile.
6. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He looked good in the Wood Memorial, closing fast to finish second after being checked hard on the first turn. And all this off of a two-month layoff! I don't think there was any way he was going to defeat Gemologist, but with a perfect pedigree for a mile and a quarter, he may be able to turn the tables in the Derby.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Let's give him credit for his Santa Anita Derby victory, for catching Creative Cause is not exactly an easy task -- especially after racing wide throughout and coming off of a two-month layoff. Being a son of a Travers Stakes (gr. I) winner out of an Arch mare, he should have no issues with a mile and a quarter.
8. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He'll get a chance to move up on my list on Saturday when he competes in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Seeing that he has won over Polytrack before, he shouldn't have any trouble handling Keeneland's synthetic surface; however, the Blue Grass has not been kind to favorites in recent years, and there will be a number of good horses chasing after him.
9. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's the morning line favorite for Saturday's Arkansas Derby (gr. I), where he will have to overcome starting from gate eleven. He's going to need a top two finish -- preferably a victory -- in order to secure the necessary graded earnings to make the Derby field.
10. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I don't really know what to think of his rather dull effort in the Florida Derby. He did race wide throughout, and he was only beaten three lengths, but he just didn't seem to level out and finish like he did in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). But it's hard to toss a horse out off of just one bad effort, so I'm going to keep him right here for now.
11. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
Like Dullahan, this colt is going to have to be sharp to hand Hansen a defeat in the Blue Grass Stakes. But Prospective just keeps on improving; every effort stepping up from the last. That fact alone should make him dangerous, and the fact that he won the Grey Stakes (gr. III) last fall over Woodbine's Polytrack will certainly help his chances.
12. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Mike Smith will be his rider in the Derby -- replacing Julien Leparoux, who had ridden this colt on eight previous occasions, but will be aboard Union Rags in the Derby. On April 9th, he breezed for the first time since his Sunland Derby victory, going five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 at Churchill Downs. I like the fact that he is already at Churchill getting some serious training done.
13. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
On the surface, his Louisiana Derby (gr. II) effort appeared to be very dull. After all, he couldn't even catch a 109-1 shot that was closing its final eighth in a slow :13.47. But the fact that he lost a shoe sometime during the race undoubtedly had something to do with the poor performance. I really don't know where he should be on this list, but until I see how he is training, I'm reluctant to drop him any further.
14. Optimizer (English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Optimizer
So which colt is the real Optimizer -- the one that finished a non-threatening ninth in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), or the one that finished a fast-closing second in the Rebel Stakes? We find out on Saturday, when he competes against ten rivals in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). I suspect that we will see a very, very good effort from this colt.
15. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
It sounds like this colt is actually not going to run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), which was the plan immediately following his victory in the Spiral Stakes (gr. III). Instead, he will follow a similar training schedule to the one employed by Animal Kingdom last year, culminating with a breeze over the Churchill main track to see how he handles the surface.
16. Holy Candy (Candy Ride - Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister) Trained by John Sadler
We will get a chance to see just how good this colt is when he takes on Hansen, Dullahan, and Prospective in the Blue Grass Stakes. Going from a maiden victory to a grade I stakes -- on a surface over which he has never competed -- is certainly not going to be an easy task, but I feel that this colt has the talent to be something special.
17. Secret Circle (Eddington - Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Bob Baffert
It's hard to believe that the colt that won both the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) is not going to be the favorite in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) -- and it's even harder to believe that the favorite is this colt's own stablemate -- but Secret Circle just keeps on winning, and it wouldn't surprise me if he wins again on Saturday. He seems to be best when he has a target to chase after, so the fact that Bodemeister is running should set the race up well for this colt.
19. Stat (Unbridled's Song - Di's Time, by Gilded Time) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It seems to me that this colt is a bit overlooked. This is a colt that finished second to Union Rags last year in the Saratoga Special (gr. II). This is a colt that won a one-mile allowance race at Gulsftream Park last month by 6 1/4 lengths with a final time of 1:35.90. This is a colt that is trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by John Velazquez, and a colt that will be competing in Saturday's Arkansas Derby (gr. I). I doubt many people expect him to win, but if he does, he is going to shoot to near the top of just about everyone's Derby watch lists.
18. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
The biggest question I have about this colt at the moment is, quite simply, when will he ship to the United States? Will he come early, to get some valuable training over the Churchill main track? Or will he arrive a few days before the race, thus doing most of his training over in Europe?
20. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I actually had this colt up pretty high on my list leading up to the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), but his dismal performance in that race caused him to drop out of my top twenty. However, seeing that he is entered in the Arkansas Derby, I'm going to put him back on and give him another chance to re-affirm his standing as one of the leading Derby contenders. Don't be surprised if he turns in a sharper effort this time around.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Brother Francis
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
My Adonis
Najjaar
Paynter
Reveron
Rousing Sermon
Scatman
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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