Five days until the Derby . . .
ON THE WORK TAB
Churchill Downs
* Daddy Nose Best looked good this morning while breezing an easy-half mile in :49 2/5, beginning slowly before finishing up strongly in what was his fourth and final pre-Derby workout here at Churchill Downs. Perhaps his works haven't been as flashier as the ones turned in by, say, Union Rags or Bodemeister, but he is giving me the impression of being a legitimate contender that really likes Churchill Downs. Don't be surprised if he's finishing up strongly again on Saturday.
* Sabercat, stablemate of Daddy Nose Best, also looked good in his final pre-Derby work. Like Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat breezed a half-mile, but unlike his companion, Sabercat's work was completed in the quick time of :48 2/5. It was nice to see the colt get in a really serious piece of work, as his last breeze was nothing more than a maintenance work turned in just nine days after his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Making his third start off of a lengthy layoff, Sabercat is certainly eligible to improve in the Kentucky Derby, and today's workout should help him accomplish that goal.
* As impressive as Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat's half-mile workouts were, I would have to say that Creative Cause appeared to go even better when breezing that distance a little later in the morning. According to DRF.com, he began the work with an opening quarter in :24.22 second before finishing up his final quarter in an excellent :23.21 while under some pressure to complete the work in :47.43. The officially recognized time was :47 4/5. All in all, it was an excellent workout that should keep him fit and ready for another good effort on Saturday.
* Liaison, breezing just five days after his last workout, went five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 this morning while going in company with the highly talented maiden winner Mile High Magic, who was credited with an identical time. Liaison began his workout slowly but finished up strongly, getting his final two eighths in :11 3/5 and :12 seconds. His gallop out was also very impressive. He is clearly training better here at Churchill than he did all winter at Santa Anita, so all signs seem to say that he is ready to return to form on May 5th.
* An interesting situation surrounded Mark Valeski as he headed on to the main track to breeze five furlongs this morning. Trainer Larry Jones had stated the day before that his colt was still not 100% for the Derby, and whether or not he would run depended on how well he breezed today. Well, Mark Valeski went very well early on, getting the opening three-eighths in around :35 seconds flat, but seemed to tire in the final quarter mile and didn't gallop out all that impressively. The five-furlong work was timed in 1:00 1/5. After the work, Jones still wasn't sure whether to run him or not. Here is an interesting article on the subject: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69358/jones-non-committal-on-mark-valeski-for-derby
* Two-time graded stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg was scheduled to breeze three-eighths of a mile this morning, but a change in plans had him instead going about two furlongs in a fashion that wasn't really meant to be a workout. A truly fascinating article discussing the workout and the reasons for entering the Kentucky Derby can be found at Bloodhorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69370/derby-hopeful-trinniberg-full-of-surprises After reading it, do you not think that Trinniberg might just have a chance?
OTHER DERBY NEWS AND TIDBITS . . .
* Racing returns to Churchill on Tuesday following a two-day break. There are ten races on the card, with all but one scheduled to be run on the main track. Jockey Calvin Borel has four mounts, including a 5-2 shot in the fourth race, while Julien Leparoux will ride five horses. Keep an eye out for track biases. There seemed to be an outside bias during the last seven races on the opening day of the meet, but that may have been due to the extremely sloppy nature of the track.
* Daddy Long Legs, winner of the UAE Derby (gr. II), is scheduled to fly to Churchill Downs on Tuesday from his home base at Ballydoyle in Ireland. As he will turn in no workouts over the Churchill main track, it will be difficult to get a feel for how he will take to the surface on Derby day. All we can do is watch his gallops and hope for the best.
* Speaking of Daddy Long Legs, many people are a bit concerned about the fact that he completely did not handle the Churchill main track last fall during the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), where he finished a twelfth. Another colt that performed poorly that day without any apparent excuse was Prospective, who finished last of thirteen. But let's take a moment to recall that the Churchill main track of the fall is not quite the same as the Churchill main track of the spring. In addition, let's recall that the Churchill main track was described as "peanut butter" during last year's Breeders' Cup, and apparently a number of horses weren't handling it particularly well. It might be best to forgot about those poor performances and pretend they never happened; instead judging Daddy Long Legs and Prospective on their previous and subsequent races.
* Not that this fact means anything, but it is interesting to note that Dullahan's winning time of 1:47.94 in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) is among the fastest renewals of the historic race. In fact, the only colts to have ever won the race in a faster time are Skip Away (1:47.29), Chief's Crown (1:47 3/5), Arts and Letters (1:47 4/5), Forward Pass (1:47 4/5), Ridan (1:47 3/5), and Round Table (1:47 2/5). That's pretty good company!
* Does anybody remember the old "within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap" Derby handicapping technique? The old system advised a Derby handicapper to select a colt that had been rated, as the name implies, within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap. In recent years, this method has become all but useless -- Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, and Big Brown weren't even given a ranking -- nowhere near ten pounds of the Experimental highweight -- but who knows, it might actually be a worthwhile technique this year.
Hansen and Union Rags were the co-highweights on the 2011 Experimental Free Handicap, each recieving a rating of 126 pounds. Of the horses rated within ten pounds of them, Creative Cause (124), Liaison (120), Dullahan (119), Rousing Sermon (119), Gemologist (118), Sabercat (116), and Trinniberg (116) are all running in the Derby. Other Derby contenders that received ranking on the 2011 Experimental include Alpha (114), El Padrino (114), Take Charge Indy (113), Done Talking (112), and I'll Have Another (111). Bodemeister, Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, Mark Valeski, Prospective, and Went the Day Well were not rated.
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
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