With seven major Kentucky Derby prep races coming up over the course of the next three weekends -- the Florida Derby (gr. I), Louisiana Derby (gr. II), Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Wood Memorial (gr. I), Illinois Derby (gr. III), Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) -- it occurred to me that now would be an opportune time to take a close look at the current graded earnings list.
The graded earnings list is an important factor in determining which horses compete in the Kentucky Derby. As the Derby is limited to twenty starters, if more than twenty are entered, there must be a way to fairly exclude some of them. The system used to determine which horses get to run in the Derby is based entirely on the amount of graded earnings each horse has won. Graded earnings are, quite simply, the money won by a horse competing in a graded stakes race; that is, a race that has either grade I (gr. I), grade II (gr. II), or grade III (gr. III) status. A horse that has won $870,000 in graded earnings would obviously be given first preference for running in the Derby over a horse that has won just $127,000.
However, just how much graded cash a horse needs in order to make the Derby field varies greatly from year to year. In 2009, Nowhere to Hide was able to run in the Derby despite having earned just $57,500 in graded earnings. On the other end of the spectrum, it took all of Make Music for Me's $218,750 of graded cash to squeak into the 2010 Derby field.
In addition, horses seem to drop out of the Derby left and right in the final two weeks leading up to the race, whether to injury, sickness, or otherwise. So to be perfectly honest, it's impossible to say for sure which horses will comprise a given Derby field until after the entries are drawn.
But even though the Derby is still more than five weeks away, I thought it would prove useful to take a quick peek at the graded earnings list and see what some of the horses further down the list need to do in order to secure a spot in the Derby field. Following each round of major prep races, I shall post an updated graded earnings list with my thoughts on any newcomers that earned their way on with a big effort in a major prep race, as well as discussing some of the horses that are right out of the top and what they need to do to enter the top twenty.
So without further ado, here is a comprehensive graded earnings list that I have been carefulling compiling over the last several months:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Union Rags $1,070,000
3. Creative Cause $686,000
4. Sabercat $601,429
5. Wrote $556,630
6. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
7. Secret Circle $470,000
8. Dullahan $405,000
9. Liaison $393,000
10. Prospective $365,452
11. On Fire Baby $286,729
12. Went the Day Well $282,000
13. El Padrino $200,000
14. Isn't He Clever $188,000
15. Optimizer $181,735
16. Alpha $180,000
17. Trinniberg $174,500
18. Rousing Sermon $170,000
19. Castaway $162,000
20. I'll Have Another $151,000
21. Currency Swap $150,000
22. Disposablepleasure $132,500
23. My Adonis $130,000
24. Battle Hardened $127,000
25. Brother Francis $120,000
26. Mr. Bowling $115,848
27. Lucky Chappy $115,000
28. Jack's in the Deck $105,000
29. Gemologist $103,855
30. Longview Drive $102,834
31. Scatman $100,000
32. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481
33. Take Charge Indy $98,400
34. Stirred Up $96,000
35. Daddy Long Legs $94,030
36. Holiday Promise $94,000*
37. Overdriven $90,000
37. State of Play $90,000
37. Howe Great $90,000
40. Jake Mo $85,000
41. News Pending $80,000
42. Shared Property $79,700
43. Motor City $78,383
44. Handsome Mike $73,500
45. Golden Ticket $70,000
46. Exfactor $67,748
47. Sky Kingdom $64,000
48. Power World $61,354
49. Mark Valeski $60,000
49. Bodemeister $60,000
(*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby)
Now, this is a very complete list, containing many horses nominated to the Derby that may not actually compete, such as the fillies On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure. In addition, there are colts, such as Wrote and Daddy Long Legs, that are not officially out of consideration for the Derby, but seeing that they are not even in this country, it's highly probable that they will be pointing toward major races in Europe rather than the Run for the Roses.
Other colts, such as Exfactor and Sky Kingdom, are also not officially out of Derby consideration, but have run poorly enough in major Derby prep races to suggest that their trainers will be pointing them to easier spots in the future. Still other colts, like Power World and Overdriven, have yet to make their first starts of 2012 and are obviously too far behind schedule to possibly make the Derby.
So here is a revised graded earnings list, with all such horses removed:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Union Rags $1,070,000
3. Creative Cause $686,000
4. Sabercat $601,429
5. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
6. Secret Circle $470,000
7. Dullahan $405,000
8. Liaison $393,000
9. Prospective $365,452
10. Went the Day Well $282,000
11. El Padrino $200,000
12. Isn't He Clever $188,000
13. Optimizer $181,735
14. Alpha $180,000
15. Trinniberg $174,500
16. Rousing Sermon $170,000
17. Castaway $162,000
18. I'll Have Another $151,000
19. Currency Swap $150,000
20. My Adonis $130,000
21. Battle Hardened $127,000
22. Brother Francis $120,000
23. Mr. Bowling $115,848
24. Lucky Chappy $115,000
25. Gemologist $103,855
26. Longview Drive $102,834
27. Scatman $100,000
28. Take Charge Indy $98,400
29. Stirred Up $96,000
30. State of Play $90,000
30. Howe Great $90,000
32. Jake Mo $85,000
33. News Pending $80,000
34. Shared Property $79,700
35. Motor City $78,383
36. Handsome Mike $73,500
37. Golden Ticket $70,000
38. Mark Valeski $60,000
38. Bodemeister $60,000
Even still, some of the colts that I chose to leave on the revised list are not pointing for a run in the Derby. It's possible that Trinniberg, a proven sprinter, will continue running in sprint races, or perhaps target the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) -- the shortest of the three Triple Crown races. Then there's Castaway, who won a division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) to stamp himself as a Derby contender, but who subsequently ran seventh in the Sunland Park Derby (gr. III), beaten some twenty-five lengths. No one would blame the colt's connections if they decided to skip the Derby and find an easier race in which to get the colt back on track.
But for the moment, let's not worry about colts that might not run. Let's take a look at some of the major Derby contenders that will need to pick up some additional graded cash in order to make the Derby field.
First and foremost are Gemologist and Bodemeister, a pair of very well-regarded colts that are on practically everyone's leading Derby contender lists. However, they currently sit 25th and 38th, respectively, on the revised graded earnings list. Both will get a chance to add to their earnings over the next few weeks, with Gemologist scheduled to run in the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Bodemeister heading to either the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) or the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I). They wouldn't have to do much to pick up enough earnings -- for example, Gemologist would only need to finish fifth (earning $30,000 for a total of $133,855) to move into the top twenty.
But the tricky thing about this time of year is that the large number of high-purse prep races tend to throw things into confusion. Yes, Gemologist might only have to finish fifth in the Wood to move into today's top twenty. But today's top twenty and the top twenty of three weeks from now are going to look very different.
Suppose a pair of huge longshots run 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby, earning themselves $600,000 and $200,000 in the process. This would put them both past Gemologist, leaving him in in the 22nd position.
Then suppose that in a dramatic upset, News Pending defeats Union Rags in the upcoming Florida Derby. The $600,000 winner's share of that purse would rocket him to $680,000 in graded earnings, moving him into the fourth position on the list, while dropping Gemologist down even further.
Bodemeister is in the same boat, only more so, because he has even less graded earnings than Gemologist does. To guarantee himself a start in the Derby, he would have to finish first or second in a major Derby prep race. Third might do the trick, but it would be very, very close.
How about Stirred Up? His third-place finish in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) yesterday earned him $96,000 of graded dollars, but it's probably not going to be enough to make the Derby field. He would likely have to compete in one more Derby prep -- and pick up a decent check in the process -- in order to assure himself of a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Then there's Mark Valeski, who -- like Bodemeister -- will probably need a top-two finish in the upcoming Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to guarantee himself a berth in the Run for the Roses. But to do so, he will not only have to defeat Shared Property and Mr. Bowling -- who are also in need of additional graded earnings -- but a number of lightly raced runners with zero graded earnings. For them, the difference between second- and third-place money could mean the difference between making or failing to make the Derby field.
So keep a careful eye on the upcoming Derby prep races. There are a number of highly regarded colts out there that absolutely must perform well in their final prep races to earn their way into the Kentucky Derby. And you never know when a colt that practically no one has ever heard of will pull off a stunning upset in a major prep race . . .
-Keelerman
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