Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Nine furlongs on the Sunland Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Castaway | Rafael Bejarano |
| 2 | Ender Knievel | John Velazquez |
| 3 | Stirred Up | Martin Garcia |
| 4 | Isn't He Clever | Luis Contreras |
| 5 | No Spin | Channing Hill |
| 6 | Daddy Nose Best | Julien Leparoux |
| 7 | Tequila Factor | Miguel Hernandez |
| 8 | Justanoldsong | Ry Eikleberry |
The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Castaway, a highly promising runner from the barn of Bob Baffert. The son of Street Sense is coming off of an impressive victory in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), where the front-running colt broke from gate eleven and had to really run hard early to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. Despite this, he still pulled away powerfully in the stretch to win by 3 3/4 lengths while giving the impression of wanting additional distance. Today, he will be breaking from gate one, which could mean trouble if he gets stuck in a pocket toward the rail, but I think that he's got enough speed to secure himself a good trip.
Daddy Nose Best and Isn't He Clever are also going to be well-bet. The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a career-best effort in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), which he won by a nose in a game effort. He turned in a strong final eighth of :12.37 that day, which was indeed highly impressive, but he hasn't raced on dirt since a pair of sprints at Churchill Downs back in June and July, where he ran second and seventh. If he takes to the dirt, he can be a threat, but I think that is a pretty big if.
Isn't He Clever is one of just three horses -- the other two being big longshots -- to have raced at Sunland Park before. Actually, this colt has won both of his starts here, taking the Riley Allison Futurity by 11 3/4 lengths last December and returning in February to win the Borderland Derby by 1 3/4 lengths in strong fashion. While he may be at his best going shorter than nine furlongs, Isn't He Clever is nevertheless a major threat for the win, and if he is able to set or track a slow enough pace, he'll be right there at the finish.
One horse that may end up going off at a shorter price than his morning line odds imply is Ender Knievel, a very promising young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. 6-1 on the morning line, the colt finished fifth in his first two starts before improving vastly in his third start, where he ran second to subsequent stakes winner Thunder Moccasin while clearly defeating a pair of next-out winners in Panthro and Stealcase. His fourth and most recent start at last yielded a victory, as the colt drew away to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 7 3/4 lengths. John Velazquez flies in to retain the mount, which certainly says something about this colt's talent, but this is a tough spot to face winners for the first time and he has yet to run a good race at a track other than Gulfstream Park. There are some questions, but there's also no denying that he has talent.
Stirred Up, from the barn of Baffert, doesn't have the same flashy credentials as his stablemate Castaway, but could nevertheless prove to be an intriguing contender at a price. He lost his first two starts, finishing second and then third, but broke through last time out to win a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight at Santa Anita on March 3rd. What is interesting is the company that this colt has been keeping. In his first start, he lost to Zackn'mat, who returned to finish a strong second in the Borderland Derby. In his second start, he was defeated by Bodemeister, who returned to finish a terrific second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), stamping himself as a leading Kentucky Derby contender in the process. Most recently, Stirred Up defeated Holy Candy by a neck, a colt that returned to break his maiden on Friday in a really terrific performance. So I guess what I'm getting at is that this colt may not be as highly regarded as Castaway, but he has been facing arguably better competition.
No Spin -- from a Beyer speed figure standpoint -- would seem incapable of earning a figure higher than eighty, for he has yet to crack that number in eight starts. While he has run well enough in the past to suggest that hitting the board is definitely not out of the question, he was beaten 6 3/4 lengths by Castaway in the Southwest Stakes and has yet to win, or even hit the board, on dirt. It's hard to see him winning this race, but then again, whenever I start to think along those lines, I tend to think of Mine That Bird . . . :)
The two longshots are Tequila Factor and Justanoldsong. Tequila Factor is actually coming off of a very good victory in the one-mile Tempe Handicap at Turf Paradise, a race which he won by 5 3/4 lengths after tracking the early pace. However, that was on turf, and he has been beaten a combined 25 lengths in his two starts on dirt. In addition, it was also by far the best performance he has ever turned in, and it came just eight days ago. One must wonder if he is going to bounce, but I've always liked seeing horses come back quickly, and have seen them run very well in many cases.
Justanoldsong has made only two starts to date, winning his first race by a length going a mile here at Sunland before finishing a badly beaten sixth in the Borderland Derby behind Isn't He Clever. In my opinion, he didn't get a very good trip that day, and he is eligible to improve a lot this afternoon. However, whether or not he can improve enough to be a contender is the question.
My selections are:
1 Castaway
2 Isn't He Clever
3 Stirred Up
4 Daddy Nose Best
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Stirred Up
2 Castaway
3 Daddy Nose Best
4 No Spin
Other Races of Note
At Aqueduct on Sunday . . .
Race 3: This one-mile allowance optional claiming race has drawn a small but solid field of six, led by Awesome Vision and The Prize Fighter. Awesome Vision is coming off of an impressive victory in a one-mile maiden race here at Aqueduct, in which he surged past the leaders with a strong late run to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The Prize Fighter placed third in a pair of New York-bred stakes races last summer, and most recently finished fourth in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Live for Today could also be a contender.
At Sunland Park on Sunday . . .
Race 11: The Sunland Park Oaks may not carry the prestige, or even the large purse, of the Sunland Derby, but it is nevertheless a respectable Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep and has drawn a solid field of seven. The morning line favorite at 9-5 is Glinda the Good, impressive winner of the Island Fashion Stakes here at Sunland last month. However, she may not end up being the post time favorite, as 2-1 morning line second choice Princess Arabella, from the barn of Bob Baffert, will undoubtedly by heavily bet. The undefeated daughter of Any Given Saturday has won both of her starts in impressive fashion, and although she will be trying a route race for the first time today, she has the speed to be a contender from the start and should prove very tough to catch. Ize in Trouble and Regal Betty should be right there to pick up the pieces if the top two falter.
-Keelerman
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