Friday, March 30, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 30th, 2012

A pair of major Kentucky Derby prep races were run last weekend, and a pair of colts stamped themselves as colts to watch heading to Louisville. Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) and the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). Enjoy!

Major Stakes Recaps

Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
During the coming weeks, we will undoubtedly be hearing a lot of comparisons between 2011 Vinery Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom -- who went on to win the Kentucky Derby -- and the 2012 winner Went the Day Well, who races for the same connections and appears to be a similar type of runner.

First off, let me say that while Went the Day Well's final time may not have been anything particularly impressive, the fact that he was able to sit within two lengths of a :46.98-second half-mile was indeed worthy of note. And despite this, he still managed to come home his final eighth in :13.26 -- a tenth of a second faster than Animal Kingdom's final eighth of :13.36 in the 2011 Spiral.

But unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the 2011 Derby off of no further prep races, it sounds like Went the Day Well may run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. II) two weeks before the Derby, in an effort to try and get him a bit more experience before sending him to Louisville. If he does run in the Lexington, Went the Day Well will likely face the horse he defeated in the Spiral, Holiday Promise, who actually ran very well himself and could potentially turn the tables under the right conditions.

Sunland Derby (gr. III)
It may have come as a bit of surprise, but Daddy Nose Best -- a colt that almost no one considered a Derby contender at the start of the year -- has now won two straight graded Derby prep races, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last Sunday at Sunland Park. The $800,000 race had drawn a very talented field, including Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway and the highly promising maiden winner Ender Knievel.

However, when those two hooked up in a blazing speed duel, Daddy Nose Best took advantage of the situation and rallied for victory. But it wasn't as easy as one might think. Isn't He Clever, a perfect 2-for-2 over the Sunland strip, inherited the lead when the front-runners tired and moved effortlessly into the lead rounding the far turn. In the stretch, he held a commanding lead over the field and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory. But Daddy Nose Best was nevertheless able to get up in time, closing his final eighth in the vicinity of :12 1/5 to win by three-quarters of a length. For his effort, he earned one of the largest two-turn Beyer speed figures earned by a three-year-old this year, and has stamped himself as Steve Asmussen's biggest hopeful for the Kentucky Derby.

Sunland Park Oaks
Last year, owner Peachtree Stable, trainer Bob Baffert, and jockey Martin Garcia won the Sunland Park Oaks with Plum Pretty, who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) six weeks later. It appears as though lightning may strike twice, for those same connections won the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks with another highly promising filly in Princess Arabella, who defeated her rivals by eight lengths to stamp herself as one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites.

There are many similarities between the two fillies. Both have shown excellent front-running speed, which they use to run their rivals off their feet early and coast away late. Plum Pretty definitely set a faster pace in her edition of the Sunland Park Oaks, running her opening half-mile in :46.83 compared to Princess Arabella's :47.24 -- but both closed their final five-sixteenths in the identical time of :31.95. Overall, I would say that Plum Pretty's victory was probably a slightly stronger effort than Princess Arabella's, but I do believe that Princess Arabella has the talent to give her connections a second straight win in the Kentucky Oaks.

Other Race Recaps

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/bourbon-courage-wins-fair-grounds.html
Two starts, two hugely impressive victories. That just about sums up Bourbon Courage's career to date. The Fair Grounds sensation has displayed both the ability to run fast early and turn back the closers and the ability to rate well off the pace and explode in the stretch. Obviously, he hasn't faced much competition of note yet, and he has never run beyond six furlongs, but he's being pointed toward the Derby Trial (gr. III) one week before the Kentucky Derby, and a victory in that race could potentially send him on his way to a start in the Preakness Stakes.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/flashy-dresser-wins-rushaway-stakes.html
Flashy Dresser may have earned himself a trip to the Preakness Stakes with his strong victory in Turfway's Rushaway Stakes, closing three-wide to win by a half-length over Gung Ho following a lengthy stretch duel. What was particularly impressive was that it was only his second career start, and Gung Ho is a proven stakes winner -- not the kind of colt that one catches easily. Both colts look ready to improve off of this race, and it will be interesting to see how they perform further down the road.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/chips-all-in-wins-pasadena-stakes.html
Chips All In is clearly a better horse on turf than on dirt. Following a terribly disappointing effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) over the Santa Anita main track, Chips All In rebounded sharply to take Santa Anita's Pasadena Stakes over the turf in game fashion, closing his final quarter mile in :22.90 to win by a neck over a good colt in Tones. It would appear as though Chips All In is going to be a major force in the biggest turf races for three-year-olds, especially at his seemingly favorite distance of one-mile.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-holy-candy.html
There are not enough adjectives to describe how much I liked Holy Candy's performance in this race. That was a talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that he caught. A talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that had escaped with an unbelievably slow pace, considering the speed of the Santa Anita main track. It was impossible to imagine that Holy Candy could possibly catch the runaway leader, for he would have had to close his final quarter in something like :22 and change, but he was somehow able to do just that. His effort has earned him a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where he will get a chance to pick up enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field.

A couple of other notable performances were turned in last week by Right to Vote and Awesome Vision. The first-mentioned colt won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in what was his first start since finishing third to Union Rags and Alpha in last year's Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Reserved just off of the early pace by jockey Alex Solis, Right to Vote moved up to take over the lead in the stretch and gamely withstood a late run from Scaramagna to win by a head in 1:16.80. He looks stakes-bound to me.

As for Awesome Vision, he looked pretty good himself winning a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct, catching a talented runner in Live for Today to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Don't let the small margin of victory deceive you. Live for Today finished, in turn, 10 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. And Awesome Vision's final quarter of :24.51 was certainly nothing to sneeze at. Like Right to Vote, don't be surprised if Awesome Vision's next start comes in stakes company -- perhaps in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct on April 21st.

-Keelerman

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