(I'm sorry I didn't get this posted sooner, but as I mentioned before, I'm a little bit behind this weekend and I simply didn't have it ready earlier. But I guess better late than never, so enjoy!)
1. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
What can you say? His Fountain of Youth (gr. II) victory was stunning, and when you factor in that he wasn't fully primed for the race, you can easily imagine just how good this horse could become later in the spring. He's clearly the deserving Derby favorite at this point.
2. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
His loss in the San Vicente, coupled with Union Rags' dominating victory, necessitated dropping him to the #2 spot. However, this colt still has a fabulous ten-furlong pedigree backing him up, which is something that Union Rags does not have, so it will be interesting to see how these colts perform as the distances stretch out.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You have to love the performance this colt turned in last Saturday in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). After tracking a moderate pace, he and the eventually runner-up Mark Valeski simply flew home through the final five-sixteenths. I thought El Padrino showed a terrific amount of grit in the homestretch, gamely wearing down his rival in the stretch and keeping his nose in front all the way to the finish.
4. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Eoin Harty
His next start is only a little more than a week away, and it should tell us a lot more about what kind of a colt this guy is. There's no denying that he is going to get a serious class test, for Empire Way, Fed Biz, Sabercat, Rousing Sermon, Liaison, and Midnight Transfer -- among others -- are scheduled to run against him. Being by Discreet Dancer, would could question this colt's ability to successfully traverse a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May, but he sure wasn't showing signs of stopping in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) and I'm looking forward to seeing how he does.
5. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
If you liked El Padrino's performance in the Risen Star, then you have to love how well Mark Valeski ran in what was his stakes- and two-turn-debut. After tracking the early pace, he finished very strongly, with a final sixteenth in somewhere around :06 seconds flat. Trained by Larry Jones, this colt should only get better, and he may be up to turning the tables on his rival in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) next month.
6. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Like Out of Bounds, he'll be getting a serious class test in the San Felipe, and how well he passes will dictate whether he remains here in position #6, rises higher, or drops down. Personally, I'm inclined to say that this colt won't win the San Felipe, but he will show enough to hit the board and stay on the Derby trail. I expect this colt to improve dramatically with additional time and distance, as I have said before, so I won't be surprised if this colt ends up being more of a Belmont Stakes contender than a Derby horse.
7. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's finally getting close to his 2012 debut, which is scheduled to be in the $500,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. II) on March 17th. He worked a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.22 earlier this morning, signaling that this colt is getting serious and could be ready to win first-time back.
8. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He's drawn gate twelve of thirteen in Saturday's $400,000 Gotham Stakes (gr. III), which certainly isn't going to make this front-running colt's task easier. Nevertheless, he had enough excuses in his Holy Bull loss to suggest that a victory in the Gotham is well within his means, and a dominating performance would certainly vindicate his status as one of the leading three-year-olds and enable him to regain a great deal of the support that he lost with his disappointing comeback in January.
9. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Breezed a brilliant six furlongs in 1:10.16 in between races this afternoon at Santa Anita Park, making it quite clear that this colt could probably run in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) next Saturday if his connections so desired. However, his next start remains the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) in April, meaning that if he is training this well now, he should be totally fit and ready to roll by the time the SA Derby rolls around.
10. Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
After breezing a slow six furlongs in 1:16 flat back on February 22nd, he really got back into serious training by going that same distance in 1:13 2/5 on February 29th. As I mentioned above, he's pointing toward the San Felipe Stakes, where he's going to get a very serious class test. We'll know for sure if he's Derby caliber after that race.
11. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
Breezed another solid five-eighths earlier this morning, going the distance in 1:00 3/5 over the main track. The upcoming Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) appears to be turning up as a pretty tough race, so it should be by no means a runaway victory for him, but so long as he's running strongly at the finish, it doesn't really matter whether he wins or loses.
12. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Breezed for the first time since his dominating Southwest Stakes victory, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 out at Santa Anita. His next start remains open to debate, although a return trip to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes is certainly an option.
13. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
His training has really picked up as of late, for he breeze five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 2/5 last Sunday at Santa Anita. Yet another solid contender for the San Felipe Stakes, it's difficult to say how well he's going to run in his first start since mid-November, but as I have said many times before, a victory in the Derby prep races isn't necessary to achieve success on Derby day.
14. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
The San Felipe is going to be an important test for this colt. Even though he did win the California Cup Juvenile over the Santa Anita dirt track last fall, I can't help but think that this colt -- whose best efforts have come over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track -- may simply be better over the Cushion Track than traditional dirt. A good effort in the San Felipe would help erase those worries.
15. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
It turns out that this colt may run in the Florida Derby (gr. I) rather than the Wood Memorial (gr. I), due to the fact that this colt's regular rider, Ramon Dominguez, is also slated to ride juvenile champion Hansen in the Wood. Facing Union Rags would certainly be a bold move, but it may be a wise idea, for this colt hasn't really faced much in terms of major stakes-caliber competition this year, and a good class test would give us an excellent idea of just where this colt is in his preparation for the Derby.
16. News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
It's hard to say what to think of this colt's runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth, other than it was a very impressive effort indeed. After breaking just a bit slowly, he made a bold move around the first turn to get all the way up into second, challenging favored Discreet Dancer for the early lead. Then he was blown away by Union Rags on the far turn, but while he couldn't make up any ground on the runaway winner in the stretch, he was holding his own while decisively defeating Discreet Dancer for second. His next start should tell us a lot more.
17. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Rousing Sermon, he's going to have to try and shed the image of being a Cushion Track specialist, over which his two biggest victories have come. A victory in the San Felipe would re-affirm what many have felt since last December, that this colt is among the leaders of the three-year-old division and a major contender for the Kentucky Derby.
18. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
On February 26th, he breezed for the first time since his dominating maiden victory, going six furlongs in 1:14 flat at Santa Anita. Baffert has said that this colt's next start will come against stakes company, but just which stakes race that will be remains to be seen. Baffert already has runners commited to the San Felipe and the Rebel Stakes, so it should be interesting to see where this colt turns up next.
19. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
Got back to the work tab for the first time since finishing second to El Padrino in an allowance race back in January, breezing five-eighths in 1:01.29 on February 26th. I really have no idea where this colt will turn up next, for no plans have been mentioned, but I'm sure he'll be back to the races before too long.
20. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
He's drawn gate one in the Gotham Stakes, where we should get a clearer idea of just what kind of a colt this guy is. He's shown two entirely different running styles during his career, the first being a front-running/pace pressing style that brought him victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes; the other being a late-running style that saw him charge from twenty lengths behind in the Holy Bull Stakes to finish third, beaten just a half-length by Hansen. What style will he display on Saturday? That's difficult to say.
21. Holy Candy (Candy Ride - Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister) Trained by John Sadler
While I couldn't warrant putting this colt into my top twenty, I just had to include him on this list somewhere, and thus decided to add one more spot this week. While this colt is still a maiden, I am of the opinion that he is one of the most talented maidens in the country. In his two starts to date, he has finished second behind both Castaway -- subsequent winner of a division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) -- and Empire Way, runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) last time out. He's entered to race later this afternoon, and should he win, it's very possible that he could join the Triple Crown trail, even at this late date.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
American Act
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Fly Lexis Fly
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Midnight Transfer
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Reckless Jerry
Russian Greek
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Spring Hill Farm
Tetradrachm
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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