1. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
This morning, he breezed for the first time since his Fountain of Youth win, going a half-mile in a moderate :50.76 at Palm Meadows. I think it was a solid work; a nice start to his preparation for the upcoming Florida Derby (gr. I) at the end of the month.
2. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's drawn gate seven in the San Felipe, where he will likely be favored against nine talented rivals. This is going to be a key prep race for this colt. I can forgive him for finishing third in his 2012 debut, for he had plenty of excuses, but he'll have to perform better this time or else I may start to believe that he peaked at age two.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't returned to the work tab since his Risen Star victory, but that doesn't really surprise me. Todd Pletcher is not one to overwork his horses in the morning, and there's plenty of time before the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on the first of April, so I won't be surprised if this colt records only two or three more breezes before his final Derby prep. The colt certainly seems to relish it!
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
Like his Risen Star conqueror El Padrino, Mark Valeski hasn't breezed since the Risen Star either. I still can't believe how well this colt ran in his first two-turn race, and I'm really looking forward to seeing how he does in his next start. I honestly think that he will run even better.
5. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
The San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) is certainly not the easiest spot to try and pick up graded earnings -- especially when your own stablemate is favored to defeat you -- but this colt just keeps on getting better and should be coming late at the finish. As I have said many times in regards to many horses, I don't really care if they win these early season prep races or not. I just want to see them closing in at the finish, giving a good account of themselves and giving the impression of additional improvement to come.
6. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He showed a new dimension in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), settling off of the lead drawing off impressively in the stretch to win by three lengths. His final fractions were a bit slow, but the Aqueduct inner track seemd to be pretty tiring. It's nice to know that he's not a need-the-lead type, for in a race like the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), you probably don't want to be the one setting the pace.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
His last workout looks more and more impressive the more I think about it. 1:10.16 flat for six furlongs? And this following a moderate opening quarter of :24? I wish he was having two instead of one more prep race prior to the Derby, but I suppose his trainer knows what's best for this colt, and if running in the Santa Anita Derby off of two months rest is the best approach, then I'm satisfied. This colt is legitimate.
8. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's turned in a pair of bullet works at five furlongs in preparation for the $500,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. III) next Saturday at Oaklawn Park. He'll likely breeze once more between now and then, possibly tomorrow.
9. Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
He missed the San Felipe due to a minor issue, but it shouldn't keep him away long and he may turn up late this month in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III), where he would get a chance to pick up some much-needed graded earnings.
10. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
He's drawn gate three in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III), which will be his first start of the year. He's been training very well, but don't be surprised if he doesn't win. I expect him to improve drastically as the spring goes on, and he should be much sharper in his next start. Nevertheless, the Palm Beach is a good starting point, and so long as he's closing in at the finish, I'll be satisfied.
11. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He'll pass on the San Felipe and await the Rebel, where he will have to face -- among others -- Gemologist and Secret Circle. His Delta Jackpot victory seems to be fading into the background of the Derby picture, but if this colt runs his race next Saturday, he could potentially become one of the top five Derby contenders in the country.
12. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's breezed twice since his victory in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), including a sharp six-furlong breeze in 1:11 3/5 earlier this morning. I really have no idea as to where this colt will race next, although a return trip to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes is certainly an option.
13. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
He gets one more chance to prove himself against the best of California on dirt in Saturday's San Felipe Stakes. This race will likely determine what path this colt will take in the future. If he wins, he'll continue on to the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and, hopefully, the Kentucky Derby. If he turns in another poor performance, he'll likely return to synthetics, or possibly turf.
14. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He's going to pass on the Wood Memorial (gr. I), which was supposed to be his final Derby prep, and instead head to Florida for the Florida Derby (gr. I) against Union Rags. This change of plans is due to the fact that this colt's regular rider is Ramon Dominguez, who is also the regular rider of juvenile champion Hansen, who is scheduled to run in the Wood following a dominating victory in the Gotham.
15. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
I was pretty impressed by this colt's effort in the Gotham Stakes. No one was going to catch Hansen -- not after the eventual winner rated off of a slow pace and finished so strongly -- but My Adonis was matching strides with him at the finish, despite being at a tactical disadvantage. Seeing that he has shown the ability to race close to the lead or close from far behind, he should appreciate any kind of a pace scenario in subsequent races, and that could prove very useful in the Kentucky Derby.
16. News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
I really have no idea what to think of this colt, and won't until he makes his next start. Was his Fountain of Youth effort a one-time fluke, or has the colt improved that much and is simply that good? I'm inclined to say that he truly is that talented, but we won't know much more about him until he makes his next start.
17. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Rousing Sermon, he'll have to run well in the San Felipe to remain a legitimate Derby contender. But it's very possible that he will, for Baffert has switched riders, equipment, and training style in an effort to get this colt to relax early and finish strongly late. If these changes work, we could see an entirely different Liaison later this afternoon.
18. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He gets a serious class test in the San Felipe, in which he has drawn gate two. Not only will it be his first start against winners, but the front-running colt will be facing some other serious speed, and will have to avoid getting into a speed duel. But on sheer talent, he can win the San Felipe, and if everything goes his way, don't expect him to fold in the stretch.
19. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
He's going to pass on the Tampa Bay Derby and instead await the Florida Derby, where he'll face Union Rags and Alpha. Not the easiest spot to try and pick up graded earnings, but he'll probably only have to finish second or third to pick up enough earning to make the Derby. Once again, distance and time will do wonders for this colt, and even if he doesn't make the Derby, then the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) should definitely be right up his alley.
20. Midnight Transfer (Hard Spun - French Satin, by French Deputy) Trained by Carla Gaines
He gets a chance to be my number twenty horse this week, and will undoubtedly move up many spots if he can claim victory in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) next Saturday. This colt has many questions to answer, mainly in regards to distance and two turns, but it's obvious that the talent is there, and if he can stretch out successfully, there's no denying that this colt is as serious a Derby contender as any other.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
American Act
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Golden Ticket
Good Morning Diva
Holy Candy
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Reckless Jerry
Russian Greek
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Spring Hill Farm
Stirred Up
Tetradrachm
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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