Thursday, March 22, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 22nd, 2012

Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action for three-year-olds, including Secret Circle's victory in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the impressive performances turned in by a number of lesser-known horses. Enjoy!

Major Stakes Recaps

Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
Thoughts: While I still don't think that Secret Circle is going to be a top-class horse at a mile and a quarter, I must admit that this colt is clearly one of the most talented on his crop. Even though he was slowing down at the finish of the Rebel, and drifting quite a bit, he still had enough left in the tank to hold off the late charge of Optimizer, who made up 4 3/4 lengths inside the final eighth of a mile to make the finish close. I like the fact that Secret Circle was able to show a new dimension, rating off the pace in third before blowing past the leaders in early stretch. Optimizer clearly ran his best race yet here, finally fulfilling the potential he displayed as a juvenile. Let's also give some credit to Jake Mo, who has run fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, second in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and now fourth in the Rebel. He has proven himself to be consistent if nothing else, and should be watched down the road.

As for the future, both Secret Circle and Optimizer could come back next month for the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby, in which the advantage would probably go to Optimizer, seeing that the Arkansas Derby will be a sixteenth of a mile longer than the Rebel. On the other hand, Secret Circle just keeps on winning, so you never know.

Broad Brush Stakes
Thoughts: Street Life probably stamped himself a ticket to the upcoming Wood Memorial (gr. I) when he flew home fast to win this race by a half-length. It really didn't look good for the son of Street Sense rounding the far turn, as the colt was losing ground to pace setting Copy My Swagger, a stretch-out sprinter that was able to escape with extremely slow fractions of :50.73 and 1:15.35. Nevertheless, Street Life finished powerfully in the stretch, making up 3 1/2 lengths inside the eighth pole to win under a strong hand ride. It's clear that this colt possesses a potent late kick, and he should only benefit from faster paces in the future.

Other Races of Note

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-stat.html
Stat really looked great in this spot, drawing away strongly in the stretch to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He did drift out in the homestretch, but he nevertheless closed his final quarter in a good :24.87 to win the one-mile race in 1:35.90. I really wouldn't be surprised if this colt turns up in a Derby prep race in an attempt to join the trail. Also impressive was runner-up Isutalkintome, who made an eye-catching bid around the turn to reach contention. He was never a threat to the winner, but could be one to watch further down the road.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/gemologist-wins-gulfstream-park.html
As impressive as Stat was in his allowance race, his stablemate Gemologist was even more impressive the day before. After an excellent break, the colt went straight to the lead, set a moderate pace, and powered home under a mere hand ride to win the one-mile race in 1:35.95. The performance was, to put it bluntly, breathtaking. The Wood Memorial (gr. I) will be his next start.

At Santa Anita on Saturday, Senor Rain got back on track with a highly impressive victory in a seven-furlong allowance race. The colt had placed in a quartet of California stakes races during his young career, but his lone two victories had come against maiden claiming and starter allowance company. Nevertheless, the colt looked top class on Saturday when he wore down the talented Bob Baffert-trainee Brigand to win the race 1 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:21.50. It appears as though Senor Rain may have a bright future sprinting.

Out at Oaklawn Park, Z Rockstar caught eyes with a solid allowance victory going a mile and a sixteenth. After tracking a solid early pace while racing along the rail, the colt moved up on the outside to challenge for the lead around the far turn and drew off late to score by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:44.09. Previously the sixth-place finisher behind Secret Circle in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), this performance was much stronger and stamped the colt as one to watch in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) next month, should his connections choose to send him there.

Although we do not usually mention Turf Paradise as a track upon which potential Derby horses stretch their legs, it appears as though a very high quality colt may emerge from that racetrack this year. The horse would be Tequila Factor, who won the $35,000 Tempe Handicap on March 17th in highly impressive fashion. Allowed to settle into fourth early on under jockey Glenn Corbett in the one-mile turf event, the son of Pure Prize moved up powerfully around the turn to take a clear advantage into the stretch, which he extended to 5 3/4 lengths at the finish. What made the performance especially impressive was that he was able to stay close to a fairly quick pace (they ran the half-mile in :46.85) and still close his final eighth in :12.58. Although he has never won a race on dirt, he's entered in Sunday's $800,000 Borderland Derby (gr. III), where he will get a chance to try and earn his way to Louisville.
The last race I shall mention is the $75,000 Private Terms Stakes, which was run at Laurel Park last Saturday. The favorite was the Todd Pletcher-trainee Raconteur, who was coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Gotham Stakes behind juvenile champion and leading Derby contender Hansen. The colt did not disappoint, wearing down the talented Hakama to win by a desperate head. The final time of 1:37.69 was not all that impressive, but Raconteur certainly was. Intriguingly, this is a colt that lost his first five starts, but who has now won three of his last four. Being a son of A.P. Indy, whose progeny tend to get better with age, I suppose that isn't too surprising. But it does leave me wondering whether this colt will get even better in the future.

-Keelerman

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