Florida Derby (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Gulfstream Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Fort Loudon | Luis Jurado |
| 2 | News Pending | Rajiv Maragh |
| 3 | Take Charge Indy | Calvin Borel |
| 4 | Neck 'n Neck | Edgar Prado |
| 5 | Z Camelot | Joe Bravo |
| 6 | Union Rags | Julien Leparoux |
| 7 | Bartolome | Jesus Castanon |
| 8 | El Padrino | Javier Castellano |
| 9 | Reveron | Elvis Trujillo |
Obviously, all eyes are going to be on the Derby favorite Union Rags, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) here at Gulfstream Park last month. Trained by Michael Matz, he was by no means fully cranked for a top effort that day, but nevertheless won by four lengths while never really asked for much run. He's drawn a perfect post position, and while this race is going to be considerably tougher than the Fountain of Youth, I honestly believe that he is capable of stepping up and turning in the best race of his life this afternoon, while still leaving plenty in the tank for Louisville. I also really liked his last workout, in which he breezed a half-mile in :49 flat while closing his final eighth in :11 1/5.
His main opposition will probably come from the Todd Pletcher-trained El Padrino, a highly promising son of Pulpit that has shown a great deal of talent during his young career. Last time out, he won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in game fashion over another highly regarded youngster in Mark Valeski, who will be favored to win the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on Sunday. Defeating Union Rags is not going to be an easy task, but he'll have the leading rider of the meet in the saddle, and Pletcher's been winning at an unbelievable 40% clip this winter at Gulfstream, so don't be surprised if he challenges Union Rags in the stretch. After all, his career-best effort from a Beyer speed figure standpoint came here at Gulfstream, so we know he's fond of the track.
Now, it would be quite a shock if one of the other horses in this race were to win, despite the fact that there are a number of other highly talented young runners in the race. Perhaps the best among them is Take Charge Indy, a son of A.P. Indy that finished second in an allowance race to El Padrino back on January 29th, earning by far the best Beyer speed figure of his career. He hasn't raced since then, but he has proven himself capable of running well fresh (the allowance race was his first start in nearly two months), so don't be surprised if he is right there in the homestretch. He's got enough early speed to be a pace contender, and he might just get the jump on Union Rags and El Padrino. If he does, he may just prove capable of holding them off.
Neck 'n Neck and News Pending should also receive some mild betting support as well. The latter colt stepped up and ran the race of his life last time out when he finished second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth. He turned in a highly unusual performance that day, breaking poorly and settling off the pace in the very earliest stages of the race before making a sweeping bid around the first turn to challenge pace-setting Discreet Dancer for the lead. Usually, a ride like this sees the horse in question tire late to finish off the board, but News Pending nevertheless held on strongly and wasn't really losing much ground to Union Rags at the finish. He seems to have turned into a new horse on dirt and could certainly be a contender in the stretch, although it is hard to picture him improving enough to defeat Union Rags.
As for Neck 'n Neck, he really hasn't gotten an opportunity to showcase what talent he may have, for twice now he has received awful trips in major races. Two starts back, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), he came from off the pace, closed between horses, then went to the far outside to close some ground while seven wide. It was about as bad a trip as you can get without having to check or such, but he was still beaten just 2 3/4 lengths while finishing fifth. His most recent start came in the Fountain of Youth, where he was bumped at the start and had to steady sharply on the first turn. He never really got into the race after that, but did run well enough to finish fourth, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths for second. Like News Pending, Neck 'n Neck probably isn't good enough to take down Union Rags, but there's certainly no denying that he has the talent to finish in the trifecta if he gets a better trip.
Fort Loudon and Reveron also deserve some respect. The first-mentioned colt finished a non-threatening fifth last time out in the Fountain of Youth, beaten 11 1/4 lengths, but had previously finished a much stronger fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). That day, he was never a threat to runaway winner Algorithms, but did finish just 1 1/2 lengths behind 2011 juvenile champion Hansen, who returned to win the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in his next start. A sloppy track wouldn't hurt his chances, but even on a fast track, he's proven consistent enough to warrant consideration for inclusion in trifectas and superfectas.
Reveron showed talent early this year when he defeated the well-regarded Casual Trick in the Gulfstream Park Derby here at Gulfstream Park, but his only start since then yielded a less-than-stellar third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs. He can certainly step back up while returning to his favorite track, but it is worth noting that most of the horses he beat in the Gulfstream Park Derby have returned to perform poorly in their next starts, bringing into question the quality of the competition Reveron defeated.
This brings us to the two extreme longshots, Bartolome (30-1) and Z Camelot (50-1). Bartolome broke his maiden first-time out last September at Calder Race Course, winning an off-the-turf one-mile maiden special weight, but has lost his three subsequent starts while never threatening for the win. Z Camelot, from the barn of Dale Romans, is an intriguing runner. His best finish from four career starts has been a third-place effort in a nine-furlong turf race at Gulfstream last December -- in which he actually ran fourth, but was placed third via disqualification -- and is coming off of a fifth-place finish in a similar event on February 23rd. I really don't know why he was entered here, but perhaps Romans knows something that we don't. Perhaps he's better on dirt than on turf, although this wouldn't seem likely, seeing that this colt was beaten nearly sixteen lengths in his lone start on dirt. But despite all these facts, I can't help but think that this well-bred son of Smart Strike might outrun his odds.
My selections are:
1 Union Rags
2 El Padrino
3 Take Charge Indy
4 News Pending
J.R.'s selections are:
1 El Padrino
2 Union Rags
3 Neck 'n Neck
4 News Pending
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream on Saturday . . .
Race 10: The $300,000 Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II), a major nine-furlong prep race for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), will feature an exciting rematch between Yara, Grace Hall, and Captivating Lass, the 1-2-3 finishers from last month's Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Of the trio, Grace Hall will most likely be favored, based on her fine juvenile form and the fact that her defeat in the Davona Dale can be attributed to the fact that it was her first start since early November. But Zo Impressive, who is undefeated in two starts, may just be talented enough to hand her more highly regarded rivals a defeat; stamping herself as a potential favorite for the Kentucky Oaks in the process.
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: Another major Kentucky Oaks prep race is scheduled to be run this Saturday at Fair Grounds, this being the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). This race has drawn only six runners, but it's a highly talented group, led by Rachel Alexandra Stakes' (gr. II) winner Summer Applause, who is fully expected to add another graded stakes triumph to her record. Believe You Can, who defeated Summer Applause in the Silverbulletday Stakes earlier this year at Fair Grounds, and Small Kitchen, who is a perfect 2-for-2 in her career, are also going to be major contenders. One filly who seems to be somewhat overlooked is Disposablepleasure, who won the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct last fall despite stumbling badly at the start. In her only start since then, she could only manage a fourth-place finish in the above-mentioned Davona Dale Stakes, but she should be much sharper this time around and could prove to be a major contender at a price.
At Santa Anita Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: One more major Kentucky Oaks prep is going to be run on Saturday, this final one being the $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I). A small field of five has turned out, but that includes Eden's Moon and Reneesgotzip, the 1-2 finishers from last month's Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita. Of the two, Eden's Moon is probably going to be favored, seeing that she was the winner of the Las Virgenes, but Reneesgotzip -- who blew the first turn in that race, drifting very, very wide -- could turn the tables if she is able to negotiate the turns better. Willa B Awesome, fourth behind those two in the Las Virgenes, probably has the best chance at upsetting them, but would really need to step up quite a bit in order to do that.
Race 10: This race really isn't going to affect the Triple Crown in anyway, but the 6-1/2 furlong Echo Eddie Stakes has drawn one of my new favorites horses in The Black, who has won two straight similar events, albiet against lesser company, with amazingly powerful stretch runs that must be seen to be believed. He will have to be at his best to defeat these talented colts, but I really think he is capable of doing it.
-Keelerman
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