1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's back on top thanks to a highly impressive victory in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), in which he secured an excellent pace-tracking trip before closing fast to catch Bodemeister in deep stretch. He galloped out well clear of the field, earned a big Beyer speed figure, and looks like a strong favorite for the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) next month.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's back into the number two spot, but not because he did anything wrong -- he's back here simply because I had to return Creative Cause to the top. It's hard to believe that the Florida Derby is just fifteen days away, but he should have time to turn in a couple more good breezes prior to what will be his final Kentucky Derby prep race.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds like he is going to head to the Florida Derby, where we should get a very clear idea of how well he stacks up againts Union Rags. On March 12th, he breezed for the first time since his Risen Star victory, going an easy half-mile in :48.08 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He has assumed the role of Louisana Derby favorite, what with El Padrino being pointed now toward the Florida Derby. I really expect this colt to run even better next time out, which would certainly make him tough to beat. My only concern is that he hasn't breezed since the Risen Star, but there's still plenty of time to get ready.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He looked simply terrific earlier today at Gulfstream Park, winning a one-mile allowance race by seven lengths while defeating Currency Swap, winner of the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last year. What was most impressive was the fact that he drew off so powerfully under a mere hand ride -- while closing his final quarter in a good :24.69.
6. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
The Wood Memorial is going to tell us a whole lot more about this colt -- mainly whether or not he has a shot at winning a race at a mile and a quarter. What I want to see from this colt in the Wood is a strong final eighth of a mile. I don't care if he runs the opening half mile in :48 flat, so long as he turns in a :12 1/5 or :12 2/5 final eighth. But if he runs an opening half mile in :48 and closes his final eighth in :13 flat, I'm going to be very worried about his ability to win a race like the Derby.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in another good workout on March 12th, going a mile in 1:42 3/5 at Santa Anita Park. There is no doubt that this colt is going to be dead fit for the Santa Anita Derby, where he will have to be sharp to defeat the likes of Creative Cause.
8. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
I thought his second-place effort in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) was exceptional, for he turned in a strong four-wide bid to fall just a length short of wire-to-wire winner Howe Great. By my caculations, Dullahan closed his fourth quarter in a brilliant :22.99 and his final eighth in :11.54. This effort should prepare him perfectly for the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in April.
9. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He's drawn gate six in Saturday's Rebel Stakes (gr. II), where he'll have to face Secret Circle, Scatman, and Najjaar, among others. He'll have to be sharp if he is to win what will be his first start since mid-November, but he doesn't have to win this race to remain a serious Derby contender. So long as he's running well at the finish, I'll be satisfied.
10. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
His runner-up effort in the San Felipe was exceptional, as he was able to track a fairly quick early pace and still finish strongly. Being a front runner, there are obviously questions about his ability to win a ten-furlong race, but being by Empire Maker out of a Storm Cat mare, he should have sufficient stamina to traverse at least nine furlongs against the best of company.
11. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's being pointed toward the Sunland Derby (gr. III) on March 25th, which should be a great spot to pick up some additional graded stakes earnings and get additional experience without having to take on the best at Oaklawn Park. He's got a stamina-oriented pedigree, so I will be interested to see how he performs as the distances stretch out.
12. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
According to DRF.com, he is now "60-40" for the Wood Memorial, where he would be ridden by Javier Castellano. His other option is the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on April 1st, where he would face Mark Valeski. Apparently, the Florida Derby -- which has turned into a tough race with Union Rags, El Padrino, and Take Charge Indy all pointing toward it -- is no longer under serious consideration.
13. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
He skipped the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) to await the Florida Derby, which -- as I mentioned above -- is not going to be the easiest of races to win. He hasn't breezed since March 4th, but I expect to see him back on the work tab soon. Being by A.P. Indy, I expect him to improve a great deal with age.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
I really don't know quite what to think of this colt, and probably won't until after he competes in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 7th. Part of why I don't know what to think of him is the huge difference in running styles that he has displayed throughout his career, ranging from a quick, front-running type to a deep, deep closer, and everything in between.
15. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Perhaps you are wondering why I still have this colt ranked this high following his ninth place effort in the San Felipe Stakes, in which he was beaten some 21 lengths. The reason is that his performance was simply too bad to be true. It would have been one thing if he had finished fifth, beaten seven lengths, or something along those lines. But because he ran so poorly, I'm going to forgive the effort and hope that something just went wrong.
16. News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
On March 11th, he breezed for the first time since his runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), turning in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00.95. He's pointing toward the Florida Derby, where he'll have to run well to secure enough graded earnings to make the Derby field, but perhaps he simply is that good. You can't count out Dale Romans at this time of year. Remember Shackleford?
17. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
I loved the way he showed a new dimension in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), striking the front much, much earlier than usual -- some 4 1/2 furlongs from home, to be exact -- before turning back a strong late bid from the eventual runner-up to win by three-quarters of a length. This versatile colt is for real. The only question now is which race will be his final Derby prep race. I feel that the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) could be an excellent option, seeing that this colt did win the Grey Stakes (gr. III) over the Woodbine Polytrack as a juvenile.
18. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
An experiment with removing blinkers in the San Felipe Stakes perhaps didn't go quite as planned, for the usually speedy colt found himself dead last after the opening half mile. He never threatened for victory, but he ran well enough to finish fourth, and I'm going to give him one more chance to try and re-prove himself before tossing him out of Derby consideration.
19. Our Entourage (Street Cry - Sand Springs, by Dynaformer) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Owned by Repole Stables of Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty fame, the promising colt won a turf allowance race February 25th in terrific fashion and is currently pointing toward a start in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in April, where he will get a chance to prove himself as a serious Derby contender.
20. Paynter (Awesome Again - Tizso, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Talk about a colt joining the Derby trail at a late date! This highly promising colt broke his maiden on February 18th in highly impressive fashion, coasting to a 4 1/4 length victory going 5-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita in what remains his only start to date. However, it was announced recently that he is pointing toward the Illinois Derby (gr. III) in April, a victory in which could potentially launch him en route to the Kentucky Derby. There's no denying that he has talent, but no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby off of just two races. It would be an amazing feat if he even makes the Derby starting gate!
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Holy Candy
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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