1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Breezed six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on March 28th, which may actually be his final workout prior to the Santa Anita Derby. With Bodemeister heading to the Arkansas Derby (see below), he should find the task of winning the Santa Anita Derby just a bit easier. Another good run -- win or lose -- should set him up well for the Derby.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's drawn gate six in the Florida Derby (gr. I), which will be his final prep prior to the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that his Fountain of Youth victory was so easy, I would like to see him get a stiff challenge this afternoon -- a good stretch duel with El Padrino or Take Charge Indy would help get him dead fit for the Derby in five weeks.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Defeating Union Rags is not going to be an easy task, but I have no doubts that Todd Pletcher has him ready to roll, and if 'Rags isn't quite at his peak, than El Padrino may just be up to pulling off the upset. But win or lose, so long as he doesn't regress from his Risen Star score, it should set him up well for the Kentucky Derby.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He'll be favored on Sunday in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which will be his final prep for the Derby. The majority of his twelve opponents are unproven and lightly raced, but there are a few colts that could be step up and provide a good challenge to him. Nevertheless, I expect him to be even sharper tomorrow than he was in the Risen Star, and I won't be at all surprised if he wins by daylight.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't breezed since his allowance victory on March 16th, which makes me wonder if he has encountered a minor setback -- what with the Wood Memorial coming up in just one week -- but there's still time to get a work in before his final Derby prep.
6. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
He missed a few days of training due to a splint injury, but he's still on track for the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Hopefully, he will be back on the work tab before too long.
7. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
Breezed five furlongs this morning in a quick :59 4/5 at the Churchill Downs Training track, a considering quicker move than the 1:01 1/5 that he turned in last week over that same track. It would appear that he is coming into the Blue Grass Stakes in excellent form, which he will need if he is to defeat the likes of Dullahan and Howe Great.
8. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in yet another sharp seven-furlong breeze at Hollywood Park, going six furlongs in 1:26 flat on March 30th. I'm really not sure what to think of him heading into the Santa Anita Derby. If he is able to hold off Creative Cause, then he's obviously got a lot more talent then most people give him credit for, but would a tough race off of a two-month break leave him with anything in the tank for the Kentucky Derby?
9. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
It was confirmed that he will be sent to Arkansas Derby (gr. I) on April 14th, rather than take on Creative Cause again in the Santa Anita Derby. I think it's a very wise move, for he should find the competition in Arkansas just a bit easier, and he will get a chance to try out his speed over a track that isn't quite as speed -favoring as Santa Anita.
10. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Yesterday, he turned in his final breeze prior to next Saturday's Wood Memorial (gr. I), going a half-mile in :49.17 at Palm Meadows Training Center. It will be interesting to see whether he or Gemologist ends up as the favorite. Seeing that Alpha has already won a pair of Derby preps at Aqueduct this year, he should have a "home court advantage" over Gemologist, even though -- in actuality -- those two preps did come over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct, whereas the Wood will be over the main track.
11. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
A top-three finish in the Florida Derby should secure him enough graded earnings to make the Derby field, which is fortunate, because finishing ahead of either Union Rags or El Padrino is going to be a formidable task. Nevertheless, this colt seems to be improving, runs well fresh, and could have a decent shot at cracking the exacta at a price. So long as he's staying on strongly at the finish, I'm going to love his chances heading to Louisville.
12. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
He's been at Churchill Downs training for a while now, and recorded his first breeze there on March 27th, going five furlongs in an easy 1:03 flat. It sounds like the Wood Memorial is going to be his next start, so it should be interesting to see how he stacks up against Gemologist and Alpha.
13. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I must admit, I had never really considered this colt to be a major Derby contender until he wore down Isn't He Perfect to win the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in game fashion. His :12 1/5 final eighth was terrific, as was his Beyer speed figure of 100. The fact that he was able to catch Isn't He Perfect -- who had opened up a large lead effortlessly in the stretch -- tells me that this colt could be a major, major contender on the first Saturday in May.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
Like Alpha, he turned in his final breeze for the Wood on March 30th, going a half-mile in a bullet :47.12 at Aqueduct. The fact that Hansen is skipping the Wood certainly helps this colt's chances, seeing that he was beaten three lengths by that one in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) last time out.
15. Optimizer (English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Optimizer
His first breeze since the Rebel was an easy half-mile in :49 flat; certainly not a bullet work, but an excellent breeze nevertheless. It should set him up well to continue improving as he prepares for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), where the added distance should help him turn the tables on his Rebel conqueror Secret Circle.
16. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
His victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) was actually very similar to Animal Kingdom's last year, for Went the Day Well was able to finish strongly into a fast pace and give the impression of being a colt that will continue to improve. However, unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the Derby off of his Vinery victory, Went the Day Well may start in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) in between the two.
17 News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
Like Take Charge Indy, he's going to have to run well in the Florida Derby in order to pick up enough graded earnings. He's training very well, but it's hard to see him defeating Union Rags in this spot, seeing how decisively he was defeated by Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth last month. But so long as he puts in a good run and finishes in the top three, I wouldn't count him out on the first Saturday in May.
18 Holy Candy (Candy Ride - Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister) Trained by John Sadler
He's being pointed toward a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where we should get a terrific idea of just how talented he is. After all, if he is able to hold his own -- or win -- against horses like Hansen, Howe Great, and Dullahan, then we'll know he's a good one.
19 Secret Circle (Eddington - Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Bob Baffert
He is obviously getting very, very good right now, for his first breeze since his Rebel victory was a bullet :58 2/5 five-furlong breeze at Santa Anita. He'll be returning to Arkansas once again on April 14th to compete in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), but he may not even go off as the favorite there -- his stablemate Bodemeister may take that honor.
20. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
I threw this colt on at the last minute after he won the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in powerful fashion this morning (or night, depending on how you look at it!) I thought it was a very professional effort, for he tracked the early leader and finished up strongly to win the 1,900 meter event (about 1 3/16th miles) in 1:58.35. It has been confirmed that he will be pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, so that should add some international intrigue to the race.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Scatman
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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